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Thursday, July 03, 2008

N.Y. Observer: Megdal: The Mysterious Case of Oliver Perez

Good thing Fat Jack Hamilton Berger ain’t on the case...and Howard Megdal is!

Perez has been mystifying for nearly five seasons now. In 2004, then with the Pirates, he posted an ERA+ of 145—the 142nd-best mark of any starting pitcher since 1980. But he did so at age 22—only three pitchers beat that mark at a younger age: Mark Prior, whose brilliant career has been derailed by injuries, Dwight Gooden, who lost his career to arm injuries and personal problems, and Bret Saberhagen, who went on to post a better-than-average ERA+ in 11 of his next 12 seasons. Even Prior and Gooden together posted another 11 such seasons.

But Perez followed his 2004 with a 5.85 ERA in 2005, good for an ERA+ of just 72. In 2006, he got even worse, putting up a 6.55 ERA for an ERA+ of 67. A pitcher who had electrified at age 22 got dealt to the Mets by age 24—and as a throw-in. It didn’t help that the Pirates tried to remake Perez’s motion completely—though they lacked any success in doing so with pitchers, they tried it with their finest prospect. The results were predictable.

Repoz Posted: July 03, 2008 at 09:38 AM | 24 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralNY Mets

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   1. bibigon Posted: July 03, 2008 at 10:16 AM (#2841928)
Why is that important? Well, Perez’s control was so wild that he was actually inducing fewer fly balls, which, along with strikeouts, are key to his success. His career fly ball rate is at 52.4 percent of balls in play. In 2008 that number has dropped to 44.4 percent. But in his last five starts, Perez is at a 51.1 percent fly ball rate.

Not coincidentally, Perez’s ERA is at 3.59 over these last five starts.


The key for Perez is to get more flyballs?
   2. JPWF13 Posted: July 03, 2008 at 10:30 AM (#2841943)
The key for Perez is to get more flyballs?


Someone may be mistaking correlation and causation...

When Perez has his real good stuff his ball tends to climb up in the zone, he gets more Ks and more flyballs, the flyballs can lead to HRs which are bad, but also lead to popups and flyouts which are good,,,

when he doesn't have his real good stuff his flyball rate seems to drop- but he also loses Ks, give sup more LDs, and a higher BABIP.

It's not that Perez needs to get more flyballs, it's just that flyballs are a sign that he has his good stuff working- if he could get his Ks and keep his flyball rate down (avoiding HRs)- THAT would be ideal, but that's not the pitcher he is.
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: July 03, 2008 at 10:33 AM (#2841951)
I think Megdal and Salfino are running out of fresh ideas for their articles.

[edit] Sorry, misspelled Megdal. Now fixed. Fresh articles still wanted, however.
   4. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: July 03, 2008 at 10:35 AM (#2841954)
I think Medgal and Salfino are running out of fresh ideas for their articles.

What's Willie Randolph up to nowadays?
   5. Mattbert Posted: July 03, 2008 at 11:32 AM (#2841994)
What's Willie Randolph up to nowadays?

Waiting to be the subject of the next Mets: Where Are They Now? piece once Salfino's finished up his Scott Kazmir profile?
   6. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: July 03, 2008 at 11:46 AM (#2842009)
I kid, both those guys write well and I enjoy reading them.
   7. Toolsy McClutch Posted: July 03, 2008 at 12:56 PM (#2842076)
Isn't Berger that DA from Perry Mason? I thought it was Howard though.
   8. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: July 03, 2008 at 01:31 PM (#2842104)
Has there ever been a player more associated with a team he never played for than Kazmir? Associated more with them than the team he does play for.
   9. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: July 03, 2008 at 02:04 PM (#2842135)
Has there ever been a player more associated with a team he never played for than Kazmir? Associated more with them than the team he does play for.

I doubt Mets fans are going to let go of this any time soon, but the rest of us will. If there'd been a BTF back when young Bobby Clemente went Rule V, I'm sure something similar would've happened.
   10. JPWF13 Posted: July 03, 2008 at 02:07 PM (#2842140)
Has there ever been a player more associated with a team he never played for than Kazmir?

i doubt it

But just to pour salt into the wound...

2005-08: 88 pitchers have thrown 450+ innings
Kazmir is 9th by ERA+

Basically the Mets traded a true #1 starter for.... Victor (the wrong) Zambrano...
   11. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 03, 2008 at 02:13 PM (#2842149)
Isn't Berger that DA from Perry Mason? I thought it was Howard though.


It is, in fact, Hamilton Berger who was Perry Mason's adversary. Good thing Mason wasn't the only defense attorney in town.

-- MWE
   12. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: July 03, 2008 at 02:20 PM (#2842158)
Has there ever been a player more associated with a team he never played for than Kazmir? Associated more with them than the team he does play for.

JD Drew and the Phillies? Because he's moved around a lot in his career and has had trouble staying healthy, it's hard to associate him with any particular team.
   13. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 03, 2008 at 02:36 PM (#2842174)
In 2004, then with the Pirates, he posted an ERA+ of 145—the 142nd-best mark of any starting pitcher since 1980. But he did so at age 22

here's a list of pitchers with an ERA+ above 140 when they were between 21 and 23 years old (since 1950)

as you can see. Perez isn't the only one who flamed out
   14. flournoy Posted: July 03, 2008 at 02:42 PM (#2842178)
Has there ever been a player more associated with a team he never played for than Kazmir? Associated more with them than the team he does play for.


Josh Hamilton and the Devil Rays
   15. Toolsy McClutch Posted: July 03, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#2842195)
Yeha Mike, I googled it after. Howard Berger is a Maple Leaf beat reporter, probably just as skilled as Hamilton was.

And why the slight to Perry, I thought he was awesome! He and Della were a great team. And Paul Drake!
   16. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: July 03, 2008 at 03:18 PM (#2842202)
Drew is a good one. Jeff Bagwell is associated with the Red Sox, too, but not more than with the Astros.
   17. The Tailor of the Garden of Tea (Crispix Attacks) Posted: July 03, 2008 at 03:25 PM (#2842209)
Drew is a good one. Jeff Bagwell is associated with the Red Sox, too, but not more than with the Astros.

Wait, you think Kazmir is associated MORE with the Mets than with the Drays? That's a bit much.

I can't think of anyone else near the same level.
   18. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 03, 2008 at 03:43 PM (#2842220)
And why the slight to Perry, I thought he was awesome! He and Della were a great team. And Paul Drake!


I wasn't picking on Perry - it was more a comment on Berger. No DA in this day and age could lose that many high-profile cases and keep his job, so he had to be winning a few from someone else along the way.

-- MWE
   19. RB in NYC (Now with an Australian Itinerary!) Posted: July 03, 2008 at 04:20 PM (#2842250)
I wasn't picking on Perry - it was more a comment on Berger. No DA in this day and age could lose that many high-profile cases and keep his job, so he had to be winning a few from someone else along the way.
Well, it seems to me that Berger was real good at getting the wrong guy indicted. I'm not saying he's Mike Nifong or anything, but he could at least stop putting the actual perp on the stand as the lead witness for his case.
   20. zonk Posted: July 03, 2008 at 04:32 PM (#2842260)
Every time I hear someone talk about Perez's mechanics -- or his repertoire, his GB/FB rate, etc... I just can't help but think: Then how does he put together outings when he looks just brilliant?

Oliver Perez seems like the strange player that really defies the whole sample size argument - ordinarily, you take a player's season numbers, or better yet, his career numbers - and you can get a really good picture of what kind of player he is.

But with Perez - it's feast or famine. He defies the concept of averaging raw numbers.
   21. JPWF13 Posted: July 03, 2008 at 04:35 PM (#2842264)
He defies the concept of averaging raw numbers.


It's like the old joke- put one foot in a bucket of ice, another in a bucket of boiling water- on average you are fine- that's Perez.
   22. JPWF13 Posted: July 03, 2008 at 04:37 PM (#2842267)
I just can't help but think: Then how does he put together outings when he looks just brilliant?

Because when his fastball is rising AND he's throwing strikes, he's as hard to hit as any pitcher in baseball.

But: when his fastball is rising AND he's not throwing strikes, he's as hard to hit as any pitcher in baseball, but he'll walk more than a batter per inning.

when his fastball is not rising AND he's throwing strikes, he starts to get a little too hittable...

when his fastball is not rising AND he's not throwing strikes... oy vey
   23. ValueArb Posted: July 03, 2008 at 06:22 PM (#2842361)
Isn't Perez's xFips been fairly consistant through out his career, implying he's just had extreme periods of good and bad luck and that his mechanical tweaks haven't changed much? If that were to be true, would it also imply that some pitchers like Perez have stuff that causes more volatile lucky/unlucky streaks?
   24. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: July 03, 2008 at 08:30 PM (#2842589)
But just to pour salt into the wound...

2005-08: 88 pitchers have thrown 450+ innings
Kazmir is 9th by ERA+

Basically the Mets traded a true #1 starter for.... Victor (the wrong) Zambrano...


You suck.
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