Uh, jurjens is very good. Also, not really a rookie.

Well, when their arms started aging and moving out, they shifted to their actual plan B of developing hitters instead. 2005 is probably the best example of this, as the Baby Braves brought them to their final division title.

Since then, they've been quietly mashing the ball. Last year, they were third to Philly and Colorado in runs scored in the NL, and in 2006, they were second to Philly.

Their plan B was instead of elite pitching and average hitting, to run average pitching and excellent hitting. From 2006-2008, they have 'underperformed' a total of 13 games below Pythagorean records.

So, they had a solid plan B... they just lacked in execution. You can't be on all the time.

Uh, jurjens is very good. Also, not really a rookie.

I like Jurrjens long-term. But he pitched 30.7 IP last season, 11 BB, 13 K. Hard to bank on him for 2008, no? As for not really a rookie...

"A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list)."

And Jurrjens was only on the active roster for 11 days in August.

-- MWE

Article is pretty much right on. Atlanta is in a very tough spot becaue of Tex. The Braves are basically playing a 100 game season. They don't have the luxury of being 5-7 GB on July 31. The FO will have feel like they have no choice but to trade him (although they could take the comp picks, teams almost never do when they have the top trade commodity at the deadline). Injuries to Smoltz, Hudson, bullpen, etc early in the season is the worst possible scenario.

We'll see - I'm still quietly optimistic about the Braves. After all the pissing and moaning about who had more rotation depth during spring training (the braves or the mets), I think the Braves have done pretty well in that regard. Hopefully, they can keep it up with Smoltz about to hit the DL; Jo Jo Reyes is going to have to pitch in MLB like he has shown he can in Richmond. For all the bad luck they've already had this season (check out their sparkline of wins and losses in the THT daily report), they're still about .500 and have a potent offense that I feel is about to break out.

Hard to imagine that the offense is going to get that much better (averaging 5 runs per game; 121 OPS+). With the exception of the Mets, they've had a absurdly easy schedule so far and havent taken advantage of it. By tomorrow night, they wil have played the Nats 8 times already (how is that possible?).

a potent offense that I feel is about to break out.

Other than Teixeira, whose OPS+ seems likely to spike?
Player 2008 Career

McCann 143 118
Tex 107 130
Johnson 100 107
Jones 217 144
Escobar 135 122
Diaz 85 112 (mostly against lefties)
Kotsay 95 99
Francoeur 118 101

Seriously, where is this break out coming from?

A question for Braves fans: what's up with Yunel Escobar? SSZ and all that, but he seems to have upped his walk rate this season.

Also, how is his D? ZR and RZR had him as average in 2007. The Fans Scouting Report had him at a rating of 67, behind 12 other guys, average for SS was 59. Is that how you Braves fans would expect his D to be going forward? Or is he better?

The Braves have a 121 OPS+. They have a fantastic offense but they are not that good. No team is. Their offense will regress, not break out.

The Braves will remain in the race as long as Hudson and Smoltz have Hudson and Smoltz like seasons. If those two miss time or have off years, they don't have the pitching depth.

Jurrjens was really impressive and looks like he is going to be a good pitcher.

He started doing that towards the end of lst year, but yea, Yunel has really improved his patience, and also shown a bit of pop. His defence should get better IMO, for he has a rocket arm, and decent range. He is not going to be elite, but he can be solidly above average.

The bullpen actually has been very good since the first week. Acosta hasn't given up a run since his first appearance of the year. Boyer has been pretty good. Gonzalez is supposedly looking very good in his rehab. Soriano is not being rushed back because the bullpen has cobbled together decent innings.
As long as Ohman and Resop don't pitch in big spots, I am fine with it.

I haven't RTFA, but Moylan is out for the year too. I still think the Braves can absorb one of Smoltz and Hudson being ineffective/DL-ed for a while, but both gone would be big trouble. Look at it this way, the Braves have had something weird happen to them in terms of injuries in almost all games, and they are still hanging around. Lets see if they can put it all together and make a run.
It doesn't look good, esp with Smoltz out, but they still got enough bullets that writing them off this early might not look that bright.

Well, when their arms started aging and moving out, they shifted to their actual plan B of developing hitters instead.

Huh? Do you think the Braves FO really had a meeting where they all decided: "OK, from here on out we are going to concentrate on hitters instead of pitchers. Average pitching will be more than acceptable!"

Of course not. No team's philosophy is to just go ahead and be content with average pitching. The Braves want to develop great pitching today just as badly as they did in 1991. They just aren't producing.

I think it would be more accurate to say that there is a reasonable chance that the Braves' offense will become more consistent. They seem to be very hot & cold rather than put up the 4-6 runs a game that will have you competitive in each contest. One string of runs scored from earlier this year of 2-11-10-3-11-3-1-3 is illustrative. A macro analysis of 4.96 r/g seems to miss the frustratingly inconsistent offense that they have shown to date. The Braves standard deviation in runs scored this year is 3.24; the Mets, as a comparison, are at 2.65, and Phillies 2.69. The Braves, by being more consistent, may have a better offense without scoring more total runs.

I've read before that, all other things being equal, offenses that are based around high BA are more inconsistent than those with high IOBA. But I've never seen that quantified. The Braves could be one data point in the discussion, with a league leading BA, but 11th in the league in BB.

Article is pretty much right on. Atlanta is in a very tough spot becaue of Tex. The Braves are basically playing a 100 game season. They don't have the luxury of being 5-7 GB on July 31. The FO will have feel like they have no choice but to trade him

I don't think that'd happen. Granted, Wren is now the GM in place of Schuerholz, but I've seen nothing in their recent history to indicate the Braves would jettison Tex if they're that close. Last year they weren't too far out of the wild card at the deadline in terms of games, but were behind six or seven other teams in that race. So they went out and traded _for_ a player.

I think we'll see the Braves keep Tex if they're close at the deadline, and by close I include your 5-7 GB scenario above. They may keep him even if they're not, if they think it'll give them a better chance at signing him.

It might be different without Mazzone around, but Braves bullpens have often been in shambles early in the season. They're always churning through kids and retreads until they somehow, almost magically, always put together a good bullpen.

Braves meandering around 500 in April-May has also not been that uncommon in their history.

Huh? Do you think the Braves FO really had a meeting where they all decided: "OK, from here on out we are going to concentrate on hitters instead of pitchers. Average pitching will be more than acceptable!"

I never said it was an active plan. But in the early 2000s, when they still had pitching, they clearly were focused up drafting hitters, and what we see now is the result. Their pitching prospects are in the low minors now, so a bit of time should solve that, by that time, more holes will appear. It's all feedback, but there's a delay in developing talent.

The Braves standard deviation in runs scored this year is 3.24; the Mets, as a comparison, are at 2.65, and Phillies 2.69. The Braves, by being more consistent, may have a better offense without scoring more total runs.

What? People have control over this now?

I'm not going to write them off yet, but it doesn't look good. There just isn't enough room for error built into this team to accommodate the likely degree of uncertainty there is with it.

Atlanta Braves MLB payroll rankings, 1990-present:

1990: 19th
1991: 19th
1992: 7th
1993: 2nd
1994: 2nd
1995: 4th
1996: 3rd
1997: 4th
1998: 4th
1999: 3rd
2000: 2nd
2001: 6th
2002: 7th
2003: 4th
2004: 8th
2005: 10th
2006: 9th
2007: 16th
2008: 10th?

Money isn't everything, but it counts.

What? People have control over this now?

Hitters are more likely to score runs in bunches against bad pitchers, and they're unlikely to do so against good pitchers. The Braves have played a lot of games against bad pitchers (Nationals), and also a lot of games against good pitchers. Their schedule has been pretty polar so far, perhaps more so than other teams. (Speculation.) If so, it's understandable that they've been inconsistent thus far.

Yankees blowing obscene cash on Pavano, Giambi, etc... writeoff. Braves blowing obscene cash on Hampton? Things go badly.

Hard to be competitive with average cash with an albatross in the room.

Let's try something...

Year - HamptonIP - Finish
2003 - 190 - .623(Div)
2004 - 172.1 - .593(Div)
2005 - 69.3 - .556(Div)
2006 - 0 - .488(3rd)
2007 - 0 - .519(3rd)
2008 - 0+? - .480(4th)+?

Not saying it's the only factor, but...

2008 - 0+?

This gave me a chuckle.

I always think it's funny when a pitcher who fails to retire a batter is noted by an announcer as having thrown "zero plus" innings.

Go ahead and knock off that "+?" from Hampton's 2008 line. I'll believe that he'll throw a major league inning when I see it happen... hasn't happened yet.

Atlanta's a game and a half behind Philly and the Mets. I think it's quite a bit too early to be writing off their season.

As a Met fan, I am still more worried about Atlanta than I am about Philly. The lineup isn't much worse, and the pitching is much better.

The lineup isn't much worse, and the pitching is much better.

I think the lineups are comparable. But I'll take a rotation headed by Myers/Hamels and a bullpen anchored by Lidge.

The problem for Philly, of course, is beyond those guys. And if Myers is hurt... bad times all around.

I think the lineups are comparable. But I'll take a rotation headed by Myers/Hamels and a bullpen anchored by Lidge.


I don't see the love for Myers, especially to put him in front of Hamels. He gives up tons of HR and isn't a particularly stingy pitcher in terms of walks.

Out of Smoltz, Hudson, Hamels, and Myers, the Braves have the 2 best pitchers. You could argue that the Phillies have the better bullpen, but I'm not a believer in Lidge based on his last 11 innings. He already has 6 walks and 2 WP.

The Phillies unquestionably have the better bullpen; its not even arguable. Lidge had some command problems in the first few games back because he missed ST. He's been wicked dominant since. Gordon gave up 5 runs on opening day but has looked fantastic since (12ks in 9 IP). Romero hasn't given up a run yet. Madson is decent to good.

Hudson is not better than Hamels at this point and the disparity between the two of them is only going to get greater. Smoltz is a stud but who knows when he'll pitch again.

Smoltz is on the DL.

Alou's MRI revealed no major damage. He could return to the lineup on Friday.

Braves blowing obscene cash on Hampton?

Well, you know, what's "obscene" to one man may be "erotic art" to another.

It's nearly impossible to figure out who's paying Hampton what (the Marlins and Rox are involved too), but the Braves were only responsible for (I think) about half what was left. It was structured such that they owed almost nothing in the early years but were responsible for most at the end though we used to have a poster around here who claimed (based on what evidence?) that the Braves budgeted it on an equal yearly basis. Also, some of the salary might have been covered by insurance.

Anyway, I'm not sure that those 6 years of Hampton have cost the Braves more than $8 M a year -- a bargain in today's market!! I assume he's got more VORP than Zito this year and look what he costs!

Also -- the three years in which Hampton pitched, the Braves won the division. Clearly it's important they get him on the field this year.

Let me expand on that ...

every year Hampton has pitched for ANY ML team, the Braves have won their division ... except for the strike year of 94.

Also -- the three years in which Hampton pitched, the Braves won the division. Clearly it's important they get him on the field this year.

This logic dictates that you should also get Julio Franco, Kevin Gryboski, and Johnny Estrada to come back and play major roles for the Braves. Sounds like a plan.

"It was structured such that they owed almost nothing in the early years but were responsible for most at the end though we used to have a poster around here who claimed (based on what evidence?) that the Braves budgeted it on an equal yearly basis."

I remember seeing that reported on sports radio and in the AJC several years ago. Who ever it was that said that wasn't just pulling it out of the air. As far as I know, that is the general understanding of the deal

28,
I think Mr Davis was being a wee bit tongue in cheek there.

Also, you say those names mockingly but if you could get those three to give you the level of play they gave the Braves it would go long way towards winning games

I bet you could trade McCann for Estrada without the Natspos putting up too much resistance.

It might have been me who made the claims about Hampton's deal being amortized at 8m per year. The question was asked directly to Frank Wren during a chat (at least I think it was Wren, my memory is a little fuzzy but it was someone in the front office) and he confirmed the Braves were spreading out the cost of the Hampton deal.

Nobody knows exactly how much insurance the Braves receive on Hampton when he's out for the year, but the guess is around 50% of his salary.

My hope is that the Braves can weather this injury storm and stay close to the Phillies/Mets. This is a good team, but very little has gone right for some reason.

31,
uh. I don't think I meant I'd welcome back the good version of Estrada at the expense of McCann.

The good-luck catcher of yesteryear or the productive catcher of today! You may pick only one!