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Thursday, November 20, 2008

N.Y. Observer: Megdal: Time to Bid Fond Farewell to Pedro

No, this has nothing to do with a Mantle/Ramos footrace. It’s Martinez, silly.

But it is the combination of faint hope and Martinez reputation that would pose the biggest problem. In all likelihood, a one-year contract for very little money or a non-guaranteed spring training invite won’t be enough to entice Martinez to return to the Mets.

Not only will that mean guaranteeing too much money and possibly years to a pitcher who in all likelihood has pitched his last effective season, it would likely mean that Martinez would not be quickly dispatched should his ineffectiveness become obvious early in the season. Because he is Pedro Martinez, he’d get more of a chance to prove himself sound. Even moving him to the bullpen wouldn’t be a viable option—he struggles to get loose and in the first inning, remember?

The Mets would then be left with the ugly choice of carrying a washed-up fifth starter, or unceremoniously dumping an inner-circle Hall of Famer whose signing kick-started the franchise’s recent return to respectability.

Would it be heartbreaking for Mets fans to see Martinez sign elsewhere and find a last bit of the magic that made him beloved in New York? Absolutely. But the odds are the Mets will be much better off cutting their losses now than betting on a long shot.

Repoz Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:07 PM | 35 comment(s)
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   1. Roadblock Jones Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:20 PM (#3013112)
Love ya, Petey. Now scram.
   2. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:33 PM (#3013123)
I wonder if Pedro would be a decent pitching coach. On one hand, he's probably one of the smartest, craftiest pitchers to play the game. Especially in his later career, he just outsmarted hitters with an 85MPH fastball. But on the other hand, he had such incredible control and feel on his pitches. Seems like that could be hard to teach.
   3. Robert in Redondo Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:34 PM (#3013125)
Well if they cut Pedro loose they are going to have to bring back Moises and El Duque. When things go poorly these guys are money for playing the "we've been so unlucky with injuries, who could have seen them coming?" card.
   4. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:37 PM (#3013130)
Well, as a Mussina fan, I hope he doesn't, because having Maddux and Pedro on the ballot would be terrible for Moose's HoF chances.
   5. Joey B. Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:46 PM (#3013136)
Pedro Martinez’s agent said this week that while several teams are interested in his client’s services for 2009, the Mets remain his top choice.

Why am I skeptical about the first part of that sentence?
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:32 PM (#3013184)
"Why am I skeptical about the first part of that sentence?"

Well, with the Pirates hiring Kerrigan and having Denny Bautista on staff, there have been rumors linking him to Pittsburgh, at least. No idea whether there's any fire under the smoke.
   7. Shooty Is A One Man Legion Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:34 PM (#3013186)
Well, with the Pirates hiring Kerrigan and having Denny Bautista on staff, there have been rumors linking him to Pittsburgh, at least. No idea whether there's any fire under the smoke.

I also read the Nats are supposed to be interested, but I can't remember where I saw it. If he's healthy, and he's reasonable about his contract demands, I wouldn't mind him in Oakland while the A's sort out the young guys in Sacramento. I'd prefer Randy Johnson, but Pedro may still have some gas in the tank.
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:44 PM (#3013193)
i've said it before and i'll say it again ... bring #45 back to Boston !!
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:47 PM (#3013197)
Well, with the Pirates hiring Kerrigan and having Denny Bautista on staff, there have been rumors linking him to Pittsburgh, at least. No idea whether there's any fire under the smoke.


I'd assume that Kerrigan being in Pittsburgh would make it LESS likely Martinez would go there, i think they had a pretty serious falling out in 2001.
   10. Joey B. Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:50 PM (#3013199)
My opinion: when an aging player and his agent are telling his old team through the media that he wants to come back, that means the league isn't exactly beating down his door. And please let the Nats thing be a bogus rumor; I want nothing to do with the guy. I'd rather just be the worst team in baseball again.

Also, I can't believe I missed this before:

Bill James, for instance, projects Martinez to a 3.36 ERA next year

He can't possibly be serious, can he? Maybe Howard was reading the 2005 abstract by mistake and didn't realize it.
   11. Shooty Is A One Man Legion Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:54 PM (#3013202)
Bill James, for instance, projects Martinez to a 3.36 ERA next year

He can't possibly be serious, can he? Maybe Howard was reading the 2005 abstract by mistake and didn't realize it.


I love Bill James, but I don't take his projections seriously at all.
   12. Greg Schuler Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:59 PM (#3013208)
Pedro to the Pirates? I hope Ramon keeps his trap shut.
   13. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: November 20, 2008 at 03:02 PM (#3013212)
Would it be heartbreaking for Mets fans to see Martinez sign elsewhere and find a last bit of the magic that made him beloved in New York? Absolutely.


The way the team finished the last two seasons, watching injuries and immaturity derail the Mets careers of Wilson, Isringhausen and Pulsipher, Mike Bleeping Scioscia, trading Tom Seaver in his prime, the premature death of Saint Gil? Heartbreaking.

Bidding an admittedly fond farewell to a player who was paid $50 million to average eight wins per season over four years, then seeing him have a last hurrah elsewhere? Not so much.
   14. Peter Rosegger Posted: November 20, 2008 at 03:21 PM (#3013234)
Yeah, I'd say "heartbreaking" is being an Expos fan and watching your dying franchise trade away a 25 year old pitcher on his way to immortality.

Watching a guy who, to your team, was never more than a mercenary play out the string elsewhere? Not so much.
   15. Sam M. Posted: November 20, 2008 at 03:27 PM (#3013243)
Watching a guy who, to your team, was never more than a mercenary play out the string elsewhere?

Not quite that. Pedro isn't your typical end-of-career FA who just stops in for a year or three -- Moises Alou, anyone?? -- and never leaves an impression. His personality and the obvious fun he takes in the playing of the game make him someone you say a very, very warm goodbye to, and whom you can't help but root for. A mercenary playing out the string? No one who followed his saga trying so frigging hard to come back from that shoulder surgery feels that way.

I will miss Pedro. It's the right time, but I'll miss him.
   16. thetailor Posted: November 20, 2008 at 05:53 PM (#3013403)
Needless to say, those numbers are even worse compared to his very best years with the Boston Red Sox.


I don't agree with the premise or with the conclusion of this article. It's not fair to compare Pedro to his brilliant prime - why is the fact that he used to be otherworldly not a reason to bring him back?? Let's look at what he is today, and start from there.

He's a great clubhouse presence. He wants to win. He's well respected. He is going to get a very, very short deal. He's not going to get a lot of money. He's already been in New York. He wants to come back. The fans LOVE him.

His K/9 is down from his prime, but it's still good. His fastball is slower, but it's still passable. He's coming off a down year but he has a lot of upside -- he could be good again. He might suck too, but how much would it cost the Mets to try? At the very worst, he could keep the seat warm for Niese to start in the minors.

I think we all agree that its foolish to hang our hopes on Pedro -- but at the same time, it would also be foolish to let him walk away without considering him as an option.

Those last 28 innings in 2007 were brilliant, vintage Pedro. The innings he tossed in 2008 weren't great, but he showed flashes of brilliance and - just watching him - I felt like he was close. IIRC, his August was good. He was stalled somewhat by injuries. I just can't see how you don't kick the tires on this.
   17. The Mets make Russlan sad Posted: November 20, 2008 at 05:59 PM (#3013412)
In Pedro's last 53 innings in 2008, he put up the following peripherals: 7.64 k/9, 3.57 bb/9, 1.02 hr/9. That's good for a FIP of 4.22 but he was lit up for a BABIP of .350. I don't know that Pedro's BABIP will decrease because of the nature of his stuff and I am not sure if he can replicate those numbers. Actually, I'm not saying he'd be a good bet. But if Pedro does pitch relatively well next year, you can't say there were not any indications he'd be able too.
   18. HowardMegdal Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:06 PM (#3013423)
I don't agree with the premise or with the conclusion of this article. It's not fair to compare Pedro to his brilliant prime - why is the fact that he used to be otherworldly not a reason to bring him back?? Let's look at what he is today, and start from there.

That followed a series of paragraphs comparing Pedro not to his Red Sox days, but his Mets days.

Where he is today is coming off of a 5.61 ERA season, with the added bonus that several injuries that weren't what kept him out for almost all of 2007 limited him to 109 innings.

but he showed flashes of brilliance and - just watching him - I felt like he was close.

Me too. But it didn't happen. So now the question is, do you commit real money, possibly more than one year, and the rotation spot to him?

his August was good.

His September ERA, however, was 7.77.

I just can't see how you don't kick the tires on this.

I don't know what this means. If he's willing to come back for a NRI? Seems unlikely in many respects.

In my heart I want to agree with both 16 and 17. Best-case scenario is that Pedro returns, then proves me wrong.
   19. The Mets make Russlan sad Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:11 PM (#3013429)
I don't think Pedro is coming back because one thing Minaya has shown consistently is that when he wants to re-sign a player, he usually does it quickly, for example Tatis and Castillo. I doubt he'll be back and I can't say that's a bad decision but it'll be interesting to see how he does next season.

I seriously doubt Pedro will get anything but an incentive laden deal.
   20. thetailor Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:11 PM (#3013431)
I'm not being clear here, I know. That is why you're the writer. :)

What I mean to say is this: Bring Pedro back and give him the fifth starter spot. He thinks he can still pitch, and he wants to pitch here. Bringing him back here won't cost us anything - he won't cost a draft pick, he won't change the clubhouse, he won't disturb anything. What is the possible harm?

I don't think we should go for Pedro at the expense of making other arrangements for next season -- but if the alternative is to give the rotation slot to Niese right out of the gate, I think we'd be making a huge mistake not bringing Pedro back. If it turns out that Pedro is ineffective again, I don't think he'll want to stay and pitch. He has pride.

If it works out, then wonderful. If he gets hurt, then the next guy steps in to the slot. If he ends up pitching poorly, then Niese is next anyway. I think you HAVE to check it out - check his price, see what he's asking for. To let him go because it feels like the right time would be a mistake.
   21. The Mets make Russlan sad Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:14 PM (#3013433)
What I mean to say is this: Bring Pedro back and give him the fifth starter spot. He thinks he can still pitch, and he wants to pitch here. Bringing him back here won't cost us anything - he won't cost a draft pick, he won't change the clubhouse, he won't disturb anything. What is the possible harm?

The Mets have missed out on the playoffs the last two seasons by 2 games. Every game matters.
   22. thetailor Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:17 PM (#3013436)
Every game matters

I know, I understand that and agree. However, do people really have that much faith in Jonathon Niese? I hate the idea of giving the fifth starter to job to him out of the gates. Too much can go wrong. What if he underachieves in spring? What if he gets hurt? Or someone else? Who is starter #6, #7, and #8? We've needed them all the last couple of years. Pedro is here right now.
   23. HowardMegdal Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:19 PM (#3013437)
I seriously doubt Pedro will get anything but an incentive laden deal.

If that turns out to be true, that's a different story. But I think he gets two years from someone, and not 2 years, 2 million either.

What I mean to say is this: Bring Pedro back and give him the fifth starter spot. He thinks he can still pitch, and he wants to pitch here. Bringing him back here won't cost us anything - he won't cost a draft pick, he won't change the clubhouse, he won't disturb anything. What is the possible harm?

Well, there are several costs. One is money. Another is bringing him in means not bringing in alternatives to Jonathon Niese- a Javier Vazquez deal, for instance. It means that if Pedro struggles early, the Mets don't dump him right away. So that's a lot of lost games, potentially.

But clearly, on a low-cost one-year deal, with the Mets willing to cut bait early, and still willing to bring in competition for Pedro- sure. I cannot imagine a scenario where the Mets or Pedro do this, unfortunately.
   24. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:21 PM (#3013441)
"Pedro to the Pirates? I hope Ramon keeps his trap shut."

Yeah, that didn't turn out so well, did it? I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher who looked more totally done than Ramon did in 2001. Not even last year's Matt Morris came close.
   25. thetailor Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:26 PM (#3013448)
But clearly, on a low-cost one-year deal, with the Mets willing to cut bait early, and still willing to bring in competition for Pedro- sure. I cannot imagine a scenario where the Mets or Pedro do this, unfortunately.

Okay, hypothetical. Let's say it's one year, $6 million, and Pedro and the Mets both know that if he's got an ERA above 5 in May, he's going to retire. That is what I think will get it done, and that's in the ballpark of what I think he'll get.

He wants to compete and he wants to play for a contender. He wants to prove he still has it. You cover the Mets, you heard the quotes all season... after every bad start he was devastated. I don't think he'd sign up for another year of getting kicked around. I also don't think he'd go to the Pirates, who have no shot.
   26. HowardMegdal Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:33 PM (#3013453)
Let's say it's one year, $6 million, and Pedro and the Mets both know that if he's got an ERA above 5 in May, he's going to retire.

In this scenario, would it be written into the contract? Because I can see Pedro, who, like you said, is a huge competitor, still wanting to push forward at that point.

But these choices are never binary. If the choice is that or Niese with no Plan B, I'd probably go with your plan, because I want to see Niese get a full season at AAA.

I think they can get Javier Vazquez for that spot, with more cash outlay, obviously, but a much bigger chance of success with it.
   27. The Mets make Russlan sad Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:34 PM (#3013455)
There's no way I touch Pedro for a 1y/6m dollar deal. No way. I am one of his biggest fans but that's far too much guaranteed money for him at this point in his career. The Mets don't have an unlimited budget and a lot of holes.
   28. HowardMegdal Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:37 PM (#3013459)
There's no way I touch Pedro for a 1y/6m dollar deal. No way. I am one of his biggest fans but that's far too much guaranteed money for him at this point in his career. The Mets don't have an unlimited budget and a lot of holes.

In thetailor's scenario, it's more like a guaranteed $1 million.

Still- what if he has a good April- is he still a good bet for 150-180 IP even? Not really.
   29. karlmagnus Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:42 PM (#3013464)
If Pedro's available for 1 year $6m, I hope the Red Sox sign him. If there's a 40% chance of him being 60% of the old Pedro, that's a good deal.
   30. thetailor Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:44 PM (#3013465)
I think the 1/$6 deal is too much, but I like to negotiate down. Would 1/$3 be worth it? And even if he only gives us 100 innings and goes down in July, that's three months Niese gets to be in AAA.

Pitchers like Pedro don't grow on trees. If he can be had cheaply, I want him in the organization.
   31. HowardMegdal Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:54 PM (#3013473)
By the way, anyone see these quotes in Marty Noble's piece about Heilman as starter?

Heilman's push to change roles has received two important endorsements. Pitching coach Dan Warthen said, "I'm all for Aaron coming to Spring Training as a starter."

The other came from manager Jerry Manuel, who said, "For Aaron's benefit and for us as a team, we have to explore that option."
   32. HowardMegdal Posted: November 20, 2008 at 07:11 PM (#3013493)
Pitchers like Pedro don't grow on trees. If he can be had cheaply, I want him in the organization.

My fear is that this is no longer true. 109 IP of 5.61 ERA is pretty easy to get.
   33. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: November 20, 2008 at 07:22 PM (#3013499)
All kinds of pitchers have an ERA over 5 in May.
   34. HowardMegdal Posted: November 21, 2008 at 12:11 AM (#3013626)
All kinds of pitchers have an ERA over 5 in May.

This is true. But it wouldn't be judging Pedro on his April so much as his 2008 + his April.
   35. Greg Schuler Posted: November 21, 2008 at 10:23 AM (#3013712)
I also don't think he'd go to the Pirates, who have no shot.


Not true. Vlad has the Sako TRG in .338 Lapua all oiled and ready under the bed. He learned from the Littlefield days.

The Pirates should investigate adding Pedro - it seems last years disaster of a pitching staff shook the confidence of the front office in declaring a set staff in October. Then again, there are plenty of Pirate fans who would argue that an Ohlendorff and McCutchen (Dan, that is) are way better than Pedro.
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