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Did anyone see the program on SNY "Best Finishes of 2007"? This had to be done humorously, right?
I'll never understand what Willie was thinking when he kept on penciling in Green and others when he had Milledge as an option. Was he trying to teach a lesson, help Milledge mature? Argh.
I loved it when Milledge high fived the fans at Shea. I have never spoken with a fan who disagreed with me. It was the media and insiders who took issue with the fraternization with the plebians.
And one of their scouts (Chris Kline) said Guerra was the #10 prospect in all of baseball. He'd hardly ever been discussed around here.
Nah, it wasn't that lopsided, but it was still a great trade. Abreu was gotten for nothing, but Abreu was at the time something like top 50 or top 100. Santana can be argued in the top 10. To get that without giving up Fernando was amazing.
I think Sam is dead on in the analysis. We paid a pound of flesh, but we got a true franchise cornerstone in return.
It was reported by several media outlets in NYC that Minaya only traded Milledge after he determined that neither the Twins nor the A's (Haren) had any interest in him.
This is true. That's what is befuddling to me. There is a huge gap between what the average BTFers thinks of Milledge and what MLB GMs think of Milledge. I think Minaya got "market value" for Milledge. I just think he made a mistake selling when he did. He should have just held on to Milledge.
Reported by them from sources with the Twins and A's? or by someone connected to a backpedaling Omar?
It's tough to figure out those sorts of things, even when you DO see things specifically reported with and without the affiliation of sources.
I don't know. I can't imagine the Twins and A's weren't interested in Milledge. I wonder what Minaya wanted and how quickly he gave up on dealing Milledge to them. The trade to the Nats still strikes me as a panic move. If the A's were already in talks with the D-Backs about Haren, it's understandable they'd put Minaya on hold. So...yeah, I agree 100% that Minaya decided he wanted to trade Milledge and then panicked when the two teams he thought would be champing at the bit to get him hesitated. (The Twins had just picked up or were about to pick up Young and were probably deep into talks with the Sawx and Yanks, and, as I mentioned, the A's had something going on with Arizona so neither team at the time was ready to move on a Milledge trade.) I think his worry about the catching position also played a part in the trade. This is all 100% speculation coming out my arse, though. It's just fun to speculate.
What pissed me off (and still does) is that Omar held on despite mounting pressure from all sides. During both 2006 and 2007, everyone kept pressing Omar to deal Milledge for pitching help. This belief was not only present in the media and public perception, but even here at BTF, where Mets Primates had to keep fending off the "Milledge would get you that solid starter that the Mets need" and the "Milledge is overrated" arguments that raged here for two years.
Like a father fending off suitors for his beautiful daughter, for 2+ years, Omar held strong. I was impressed.
Then in a decision that will befuddle us all, Omar inexplicably relented on his jewel when the town drunk proposed. Argh, kill me now.
At the time of the Kazmir trade and after it, various NYC media outlets also reported about Kazmir's purported chemistry issues. Both metaphorical and literal "chemistry" issues.
Are you saying that Kazmir was a rumored juicer? Or are we talking about recreational drugs?
Huh. I'm surrounded by Met fans and I never heard this. However, if I hear the Al Leiter hates Kazmir's stereo story one more time I think I will be poisoned forever against humanity. And also stereos.
Recreational.
They were NY sources, so I guess you can attribute it to the latter, but I don't see why he would have pulled the trigger on the Milledge deal prematurely if he thought it could impede his pursuit of Santana or Haren.
Now I am imagining a production of The Taming of the Shrew with Milledge as Katherine and Jim Bowden as Petruchio. Good times.
And Milledge is comparable to Payton, how? They're African-American outfielders who once played for the Mets?
Milledge has outperformed Payton at the same ages and levels.
Milledge was performing credibly in MLB at age 22, OPS+ 105. At age 22, Payton played well at AA in the Eastern league, OPS 929, relative to a league average of 704, but was mediocre at AAA in the International, OPS 678, relative to a league average 719.
It took Payton till age 29 to get a MLB OPS+ above 100, though he came close at age 27.
On top of rfloh's solid points, Payton *was* a top prospect. Injuries derailed him. Milledge has not had any debilitating injuries yet.
The comparison is based on the fact that both were highly touted OF prospects. Teir skin color is irrelevant.
Oh, and Payton actually once played CF for a full season for a team that won a pennant. Milledge is just a guy who has some nice minor league stats, who may or may not be better than Jacque Jones.
in 206 plate appearances
list of all MLBers at age 22 with OPS+ between 100 & 110, PA between 180 and 270:
1 Mike Anderson 110 215
2 Larry Gilbert 110 261
3 Howard Wakefield 110 220
4 Tony Gwynn 107 209
5 Gabby Hartnett 107 263
6 Charlie Moore 106 262
7 Ken O'Dea 106 231
8 Lastings Milledge 105 206
9 Val Picinich 105 241
10 Roger Cedeno 104 227
11 Brian McRae 103 182
12 Jack Shepard 102 265
13 Wayne Belardi 102 180
the closest actual comp in terms of avg/obp/slg is Hartnett; I think it's safe to say the Nats would be overjoyed if Milledge hit anywhere near Gabby
on the other hand, the next best comp is Mike Anderson; I don't think Wash would be too thrilled if Milledge's career path followed his
Man, I don't see this at all. Milledge looks like he'll be closer to Amos Otis than Jay Payton to me, and I'm no Mets fan. You can even throw out the stats if you want. Milledge just LOOKS better to me as a baseball player. That he's got the statistical pedigree to back up my half assed subjective opinion is even better. I wish he were still with the Mets so I'd get to see him play more, though.
IIRC, Payton had a couple of major injuries that derailed his career before he came to the majors. I think those IL stats may have been post-injury.
This may be why we're all so "bonkers":
Pecota:
2008- 23- .290/.359/.480
2009- 24- .289/.364/.483
2010- 25- .288/.363/.489
I think the forecast is off in that it doesn't see a performance spike until he's 26. But a corner OF with good d and a .360/.480 line for the league minimum is pretty valuable. And Milledge is a CF. The Mets could take the $10-15 million it takes to buy that performance and sink it into a catcher. A .400/.550 season from Milledge in the next 3 years wouldn't shock me. He's a smart and talented player who is really dedicated to learning the game. Unless you buy all the crap about his attitude, I don't understand how you couldn't be excited about him...
Maybe, I think Cedeno is off the Mets payroll the same time Ortiz is off Arizona's.
Yeah, and Milledge was 22 last year, 23 in 2008. Was Payton playing CF for a full season for a team that won a pennant at age 22 or 23?
His bat really does explode through the zone. His swing just screams energy. He generates a lot of power without being particularly big- if he does add strength, it'll be scary. But it's the .380+ OB% that has always impressed me- this isn't a guy who relies on his ability to pound the ball. Last year, this is where he showed the greatest maturity- he was learning what to do and what not to do, and really seemed to recognize his mistakes.
Yes, there is also his minor league record. At 21, 828 OPS in AAA in the INT, relative to a league average of 715. At 21, Payton was in A-, beating up on kids younger than him.
That would absolutely shock me. I don't see anything in his makeup that leads me to believe he'll sniff a .400 OBP or a .550 SLG.
And I was a huge Milledge booster. I see him as a Shannon Stewart type player.
Milledge is a pretty big guy. He looks like he'S 6 feet and around 210 pounds. If he gets much bigger than that, he probably won't be able to stick in CF.
His bat really does explode through the zone. His swing just screams energy. He generates a lot of power without being particularly big- if he does add strength, it'll be scary. But it's the .380+ OB% that has always impressed me- this isn't a guy who relies on his ability to pound the ball. Last year, this is where he showed the greatest maturity- he was learning what to do and what not to do, and really seemed to recognize his mistakes.
This thread depresses the heck out of me, but this is true. Milledge *looks* like a prototype outfielder. He swings hard, his motions are smooth, it all comes naturally to him. Once he starts laying off that outside slider, which all young players eventually learn, he's going to be tough to pitch to. He and Felix Pie - they just look like 5 tool players.
Bill Pecota was a lousy player, who gives a crap what he thinks.
Milledge isn't that good of a defensive player either, but I'm score that someone on BTF has a tricorder that says different. The guy that drafted him wasn't even inetrested in obtaining him, and his club is desperate for talent.
The Mets made a bad trade. No doubt. They didn't give up Willie Mays though.
Very subjectively, he hits for a lot more power than Stewart did. I followed Stewart very closely when he was coming up. Stewart didn't hit for any kind of power until he was 26. SS was a master at hitting singles- from 1999-2004 his BA ranged from .294-.322, which is pretty consistent. His power numbers jumped around, and early in his career he had more speed than Milledge, but I think Lastings will hit a lot more HRs. Now that I'm looking it up, their raw minor league numbers are pretty close, but Stewart was older than Milledge pretty much every step of the way- 21 at AA, 22 at AAA for 2 stints. I think Stewart would've been a different player had they hit him #3 from the start of his career, but as a leadoff/speed guy he developed different. I'd bet on a .900 OPS season from Milledge at some point, and I never would have predicted that for Stewart...
Russlan, B-Ref has Milledge at 6'1, 185. I think it depends where he pushes his game. He likes CF, but if the Mets had used him in a corner I could've see him sacrificing a bit of mobility for some power. Also, he likes to steal despite not being particularly adept at it. At age 20, he was 29-18, at 21 he was 13-10, and he's 4-4 with the Mets. On one CS last year he failed to reach the bag with his slide.
By 30, I think he'll put up one season like that. He won't do it every year, obviously, but I could see him doing it once. I think his intelligence as a hitter, combined with how young he's playing regularly at the ML level, will be what does it. But I've rarely been right about anyone...
That's Fernando. But Milledge could have been Bobby Bonilla to Fernando's Bonds. I'm telling ya, this trade is gonna bite us in the arse. Two years from now, you'll be as bitter as me about this.
It also has David Wells at 225 pounds and Schilling at 215.
Milledge worked out prior to the 2007 season and there was a lot of comments about how he gained 15-20 pounds. Milo is a big guy and he'll likely get even bigger as he fills out during his mid-20s.
Well, if Mark thinks I'm a classy individual, how much can we trust his judgement?
I am on record that Milledge will put up a 115-120 OPS+ with better than average center field defense in 2008. Where he goes from there will be interesting, to say the least- but that player alone is worth a tremendous amount, even if he doesn't grow from there. I am refraining from predicting a specific line, because I simply don't know how Washington's new park will play.
Whether I am bonkers for thinking this remains to be seen.
And for the record, Jay Payton never topped 100 OPS+ anywhere besides Colorado.
I forgot the "FWIW"...
Milledge worked out prior to the 2007 season and there was a lot of comments about how he gained 15-20 pounds.
I though it was the lack of crazy dreds everywhere that just made him *look* bigger...
Milo is a big guy and he'll likely get even bigger as he fills out during his mid-20s.
Agreed. Which is why I can see a significant power increase, and along with it a jump in walks. Stewart seemed to get by on skilled hitting- putting it where the fielders weren't- more than bat speed and power. He took full advantage of the turf at Skydome to skid balls down the line. I saw him place 3 grounders perfectly between short and 3B one game, and they looked like all the same hit. Milledge, the ball hops off his bat more, and he seems to have better plate coverage as a result of his quick bat. Of course, I could be full of ####, but that's how it looks to my very unskilled eyes...
By 30? I think his age 28-30 seasons are going to be for a different team.
I don't know who he'll be playing for. But DC will have the cash to pay him if he wants to stay. And if I'm DC, I market the hell out of him and Flores as underdog Met castoffs that they're building an upstart franchise around.
I don't know if you're going to win over a lot of Mets fans to the pro-Milledge side with the "We gave up the next Bobby Bonilla!" approach.
The Bonilla saga remains one of the most unfair narratives in Mets history. Bonilla was very good for the Mets - if we had 3 more like him, we would have remained contenders rather than sink into the abyss.
With Santana/Wright/Reyes/Pedro/Beltran/Fernando carrying the load for the next few years, we simply need a strong supporting cast. Milledge and Flores level talent is what we'll be pining for in 2009.
You kill me, Rask.
2) The guy you're apparently referring to, as your lone actual argument in favor of your idiosyncratic judgment of Milledge, is noted talent evaluator Jim Duquette.
But the tricorder joke was funny. Because that's something that's on Star Trek! boo-yeah!
Instead of pining for Flores you should just try to convince yourself and others that he is the second coming of Vance Wilson or Mike Kinkade. You'll be happier living in that world.
You kill me, Rask.
Russlan, you and I were the only ones screaming when Flores was heisted away. And even then you didn't wring your wrists in grief enough. It takes a while for Mets fans to realize what we've lost.
Nah, Bowden will pay for his sins. Dukes is going to sink that franchise with bad karma for the next decade.
I can understand not liking every move that Minaya makes. I do. But let's not forget that he has also made a lot of good moves as well, many we thought to be bad at best, idiotic at worst.
For example, prior to the 2006 season I thought Omar made a mistake not signing Jeff Weaver when it was clear he'd be getting a one or two year deal. I thought trading Seo for Sanchez was a bad mistake. In general, Omar has done a good job and I think the "he hasn't learned anything..." comment is much too harsh.
More like 12.5-15.0 IP...
[looks around, waits for the latest Dial bet]
But Omar does have Maine and Ollie to balance Milledge and Flores. Selling high on Seo.
FWIW, the only reason I wasn't screaming about losing Flores at the time was b/c I didn't think Washington would hold him the whole year. But he actually was pretty good when he played, and the Nats were hopeless from the start. As late as May I assumed they could get someone like Ryan Church to just let the Nats keep him.
What club would Duquette have acquired him for - his country club?
Schneider's alright. PECOTA has him as around 4 VORP. Add in his defense, and he should be a solid C.
As for Duque-Lohse, I'd rather keep Duque. It's the sentimental side of me that wants to see Duque pitch in a clutch spot for the Mets in October.
Schneider is not as bad as a lot of people are making him out to be. Especially if he's in a platoon with Castro.
Close!
Should be: Minaya sunk that franchise with incompetence for the better part of a decade.
So, he is 4 runs better than a replacement catcher, offensively? So, his D has to be about Adam Everett or Pedro Feliz level then.
Dan Duquette? If s/he thinks Bill Pecota is working for Baseball Prospectus...
He actually put up a higher OBP than McCann last year. Obviously, it was something of a disappointing year for McCann and McCann also hit for way more power, but the idea that Schneider is a completely useless player is overly negative.
Schneider BABIP was .255 last season. He is usually around .280. If he can get a little boost in batting average, a .330-.340 OBP is possible.
Again, this was a bad, bad trade. I just don't think it is as bad as some are making it out to be.
SP was the GM at he time, yes, but he had as much to do with the draft as you or I did.
No, I'm actually referring to someone else, a former Mets scouting director, who is now the Asst GM of another club. He also happened to be the guy that drafted Kazmir, Jacobs, Bannister, etc.
Well, you guys do so sound like Vulcans,
He was hired by the Cardinals on January 9th. Milledge was traded on November 30th.
No, i do not mean GLR...
Love you too, Heals. Even though your comparison of Lastings Milledge to Jay Payton had been thoroughly debunked within two posts, and yet you still haven't acknowledged the force or implications of the fact that by age 22, Milledge has shown the ability to hold his own offensively and do things in the major leagues that Jay Payton couldn't do until he was much, much older. Your answer (# 32):
The comparison is based on the fact that both were highly touted OF prospects. Teir skin color is irrelevant.
Oh, and Payton actually once played CF for a full season for a team that won a pennant. Milledge is just a guy who has some nice minor league stats, who may or may not be better than Jacque Jones.
Convincing stuff, that. Someone tells you that Milledge had accomplished more in the majors than Payton at the same age, and been better in the minors, and you come back with the fact that Payton played for a pennant-winning team and that Milledge only has "some nice minor league stats." Sigh.
Anyway, the shame of this article is all in Milledge's quotes about Randolph, and the Mets' unwillingness to play and give a real opportunity to a young player:
Did the Mets believe in him?
“No,” Milledge said. “Because I’m inexperienced, they like experienced guys, especially Willie (Randolph). Here it’s good to have people really believe in you. I really didn’t get any love over there. Which is fine, they’re a big market and they are not going to wait around on young guys.
This is ultimately the road to oblivion. Or it's the road to a $200M payroll. Either way, it makes me sad to know it's going to take a player who is a star from Day One at the major league level to ever get a real chance again to make it from signing day to the ASG in a Mets uniform. This is the Mets' reality, at least for the foreseeable future. They'll get traded away. Maybe sometimes I'll be OK about the trade (Santana). Maybe other times, I'll think it's a lunatic waste of talent (Milledge). But it's what's going to keep happening.
Agreed 100% WRT Randolph's attitude.
Fantasize with me for one second-
The Mets keep Milledge and Estrada. Or sign random backup catcher ____. Recognizing their need for a corner OF who can hit RHP, they sign Barry Bonds. Milledge plays 120 games backing up Bonds and Alou. Beltran of course is tired as hell from running all over the damn OF, and needs to be Endied once a week at least. But they get a .450 OB% out of the deal and get to keep Milledge.
I'm going to say .285, 18, 70.
Ugh. Moises Alou hits RHP just fine. And if they were going to keep Milledge, then for goodness sake, play the kid and give him the real chance you give an elite prospect. That means playing him against all but the very toughest RHPs, and letting him learn -- and yes, sometimes struggle. Patience with a young guy means you live with that. Let Endy soak up the ABs against the best RHs in the league, and take up the games Alou can't play. Leave Bonds out of it.
Hell, the case for signing Bonds is a hell of a lot stronger once they traded Milledge than it would have been had they kept him . . . .
I really have a lot of doubt about that. It is very difficult for me to believe that Omar Minaya would hire a manager whose philosophy is so anathema to Minaya's own that he has to completely change the organizational M.O. for as long as Randolph is around, and then can shift back if/when Randolph is gone. Moreover, I can't believe that if he came to realize (after hiring Randolph) that there was such a disconnect, that he is so milquetoast that he would just shrug his shoulders and start trading away talent he believes in for the sake of reshaping the major league roster to Willie Randolph's tastes. Instead, he'd call his manager in and tell him to get his ass with the program and play some kids and bench some Shawn Green types. IF that is what Omar Minaya wanted.
Instead, I don't think Minaya really disagrees. At least not in the context of the young talent he has thus far provided for Randolph, anyway. He has decided that the talent is not good enough to force the issue, or that Randolph has been right. And he has traded away talent before it can force him to force Randolph's hand. And right now, there is no pipeline. There's barely a pipe.
Maybe Willie did not like Milledge's game for some reason; it seems that he isn't the only one. I don't think there's much evidence that Willie has a dislike for young unproven players.
Depending on how the new Washington stadium plays, we might well be saying the same thing. But again, once adjusted for league and park, Milledge will be at 115-120 OPS+, above average defense in CF.
The way he talked about John Maine all season last year with something barely short of disdain in his voice and in his quotes. "He really hasn't proved anything yet. Until he sustains it I don't put much stock in a few good starts. Blah blah frigging blah." I don't need Sparkey Anderson talking up every rookie as if he's the next Joe DiMaggio, but a little positive reinforcement and praise when a young player does well? Would that actually KILL you, Willie???
Yes, they gave Joe Smith a roster spot and ultimately innings. But when he went south, it didn't take long for Randolph to lose faith -- whereas you couldn't blow Guillermo Mota out of the 7th and 8th inning (much less out of the pen itself) with a damned howitzer. Proven veteran v. rookie.
And in the case of the starting pitchings, a lot of them got chances only after the Jose Limas of the world.
What do the Mets do when a young player shows well, but with some real imperfections in his game (say, Mr. Gotay, hitting well but playing poor defense)? They trade for Luis Castillo . . . then sign him to a long-term deal. That's a reasonable call in that case, but as part of a broader pattern that includes what happened to Milledge, and trading away the rest of the farm for Santana, I see a system that shows no inclination whatever to turn jobs over to young players produced by the system, and a manager who is a very large part of that.
Bannister won a spot in the rotation in spring training as did Pelfrey in 2006 and 2007 respectively with other veterans competing. I don't think that's really a fair comment.
John Maine: That's just how Willie is. He also started John Maine in Game 1 of the NLDS.
The only guy who probably didn't get as much of a chance as he should have is Milledge. The rest of the young guys had their flaws.
I don't agree with you, especially regarding pitchers, but will admit that it possible that a pattern is emerging. In each individual case, there's a good argument to go with the veteran position player. That said, eventually, one would like them take a chance on a young player.
Yeah, and even after John Maine pitched well in the 2006 post-season, Wille Randolph STILL talked about him in 2007 like he was a scrub who hadn't done crap. That is the attitude he manifests towards young players, and it is exactly that climate that leads Milledge to say the things he's said about the way young players are treated and not given a chance with the Mets. That, and the fact that they are traded away before they ever get a real chance to win and keep a long-term job.
Sam, Willie is hard on young players because he thinks "tough love" is the best way to get them to develop. He does this with Reyes all the time. Is that the best way? Is it better than being Mr. Nice Guy? I don't know. Maine seems to be quite capable of handling Willie's tough love.
And it seemed to work SO well for Jose Reyes last year. And for Lastings Milledge, too. And it just fed the media beasts who flogged the two of them (especially Milledge, of course).
It sure seemed to work in 2006.
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