Just once I would like to see a story like this:

JOSE LOPEZ GOING NOWHERE, SAY M'S

Mariners second baseman Jose Lopez is not going to be shopped or dangled this off-season, says Seattle GM Bill Bavasi.

"Frankly there's not a whole hell of a lot of interest in Jose Lopez," Bavasi commented. "It looks like we are stuck with the guy."

Given the virtual impossibility of including Lopez in a package for Johan Santana, Scott Kazmir, Miguel Cabrera, or Johnny Damon, it looks like Lopez will be moored at the keystone sack for Seattle for yet another long, long season.

"We even considered just throwing him out there for a player never to be named later or for future lacks of consideration," said Bavasi. "But there is a desperately thin market for Jose Lopez right now. The young man is pretty much our cross to bear."

Coincidentally, I believe the Mets did exactly this before Tampa Bay agreed to take Scott Kazmir.

"It looks like we are stuck with the guy."

If this hasn't appeared in The Onion yet it should have.

Can we just take baseball away from Florida already?

THis makes no sense. (unless the DRays goal is to always win 70-75 games with the best collection of prospects and young players in the majors -- the prospect list all-stars!)

The Drive for 75. To entertain those who are 75.

[5]Always win 70-75? 70 wins is a good season (relatively) for the Devil Rays.

Well, I did say that that was the goal.

How comical would it be if the Mets, with their No. 1 need being a No. 1 starter, found themselves trying to trade for Kazmir

That would be hilarious!!

To a Mets fan, there is (still) nothing comical about the Kazmir situation.

This article is pure and unadulterated stupidity. Not once have the Rays said they're even entertaining the possibility of trading Kazmir, and there are probably only 5 to 10 more valuable properties in baseball. The Rays don't need depth, they need stars, and it wouldn't behoove them to trade their brightest.

The Rays don't need depth

Didn't their #3 starter last year have an ERA+ of 78?

The thinking is that because Kazmir is three years from free agency as opposed to one year for Santana, he might bring nearly as much in return.

Either Sherman is a dolt or the Rays mgmt consists of a bunch of idiots. Kazmir is worth a lot more than Santana.

From the article:

The Rays have essentially made only B.J. Upton, whom they perceive as a top-flight center fielder for years, an untouchable. That means players such as Carl Crawford and Delmon Young could be had in the right deal.

I can't think of a good reason why Upton would be untouchable and Young wouldn't be. I can see why the Rays would trade Crawford - his value isn't likely to get any higher, and Tampa does have some guys who can play left field and be reasonably productive if Crawford is moved - but Young's still got at least as much upside as does Upton, and he's not really that much more of a problem child.

-- MWE

Didn't their #3 starter last year have an ERA+ of 78?

and their #4 was at 77, #5 was at 74, and three guys with 10 starts each put up 60, 59 and 56.

Basically the Rays could hugely improve just by adding 2 guys who could put up an ERA+ of 90 (4.80) in 150 ip.

How comical would it be if the Mets, with their No. 1 need being a No. 1 starter, found themselves trying to trade for Kazmir 3½ seasons after getting Victor Zambrano for him?

Pure stand-up comedu, I say. You can't find something this good at the Comedy Cellar on a Friday night, I tell you.

Personally, I'd like to see the Rays keep Crawford, Young, and Upton, but everyone else on the big league roster would be touchable under the right circumstances.

What the Rays really need is a solid MLB shortstop, good relief, and a #2-3 starter (in that order).

But what about the time when he was 18 and he got into a car accident with his teammate's car? Doesn't that do anything to his trade value?

Either Sherman is a dolt or the Rays mgmt consists of a bunch of idiots. Kazmir is worth a lot more than Santana.

This is entirely unclear. I could see it going either way.

Kazmir's got age and contractual status going for him of course.

Santana has a better health history, a better health profile, is a better pitcher, with a better track record, and the rights to him for 2008 also convey a first shot of re-signing him, so the "you're only trading for the 2008" season concerns are overblown. I'd bet against Santana seeing free agency if he gets traded.

I think the Red Sox, Yankees, or Mets might prefer Santana to Kazmir.

The Diamondbacks would prefer Kazmir on the other hand.

Basically the Rays could hugely improve just by adding 2 guys who could put up an ERA+ of 90 (4.80) in 150 ip.

The Rays have some interesting arms. What they need is gloves. With their abysmal defense, they can bring in Santana and Sabathia next year and those two will be fighting an uphill battle. Instead of looking to trade Kazmir, they just need to put their optimal defensive alignment on the field, and go with the arms they have.

I suspect that Pena at 1st, Imamura at 2b, ??? at SS, Longoria at 3b, and Crawford-Upton-Young would be a nice start. For the life of me, I can't remember who their SS was this year, or more importantly, I don't know who their SS should be in 2008.

Can Crisp play SS? I believe the Rays have too many outfielders already.

Basically the Rays could hugely improve just by adding 2 guys who could put up an ERA+ of 90 (4.80) in 150 ip.

They might be able to do that from within. Niemann could do that this year, with McGee and Davis possibly joining him mid-season.

The problem that Tampa has - and it is a real one - is defense. David Pinto's PMR numbers suggests that the Rays have the worst overall defense in the majors, and I think that's very close to the truth, if not the absolute truth. The defense could be better this year, but if Longoria does take over 3B and Iwamura moves to 2B, it could easily be just as bad. At some point, the Rays need to settle guys into positions and let them play them; they can't keep having two or three guys doing OJT every year.

EDIT: Longoria's not a bad defender, but there's always an adjustment to playing against major league hitters in major league ballparks when the game comes at you much faster. Combine that with moving Iwamura to 2B and having to go through the learning process again and you have another potential set of problems afield.

-- MWE

Someone is clueless - either the TB front office or this writer.

The Rays need some solid vet leadership in the infield, outfield and pen, not more prospects or bench players. Someone needs to teach these kids the fundamentals - how to play and how to act. They don't need more kids to teach; they need to deal a few of the kids. Like Dukes before last season.

For most of the season, Brendan Harris was at SS. The Rays are targeting SS as a top priority this off-season, as Harris is really a 2B/3B that was pressed into service at SS because of his bat (and the lack of hitting by Ben Zobrist and Josh Wilson).

I think the Red Sox, Yankees, or Mets might prefer Santana to Kazmir.

They might, or might not. I think Theo would be a lot more interested in Kazmir. Just a hunch.

Didn't their #3 starter last year have an ERA+ of 78?

And his ERA+ was closer to 90 in the second half. Certainly none of David Price, Jake McGee or Wade Davis should provide an upgrade in the next year or two. And Evan Longoria will definitely flop, as will Reid Brignac. And Delmon Young has already PROVEN that he's not a major league hitter, and at 21 years old, there's no reasonable expectation that he should improve.

The guys who made 1/3 of the starts last year won't even see the majors this year, and guys who made another fifth of the starts were rookies or inexperienced pitchers who have a decent chance at improving. Besides, who exactly would the Mets offer? Unless they're offering Jose Reyes, a deal of Kazmir to the Mets is a nonstarter.

Outside of the bullpen, shortstop, and maybe catcher (and maybe 1B if Pena turns out to have been a mirage), the Rays are in pretty good shape. I can't conceive of how trading away Kazmir makes the team better and not worse. I could understand trading Crawford or even Delmon, but at this point, Upton, Kazmir and Shields are the core and any team would need to overpay to get them.

The defense could be better this year, but if Longoria does take over 3B and Iwamura moves to 2B, it could easily be just as bad.

I thought the general feeling is that Longoria will be a stud defensively at 3b, and Imamura would be at least average at 2b.

For the life of me, I can't remember who their SS was this year

Brendan Harris, mostly. They tried Ben Zobrist first, but he didn't work out.

or more importantly, I don't know who their SS should be in 2008.

It should be Adam Everett. I dunno how plausible that is, but that's who it should be...

Otherwise, I would think they'd give Reid Brignac every chance to win the job in spring training, or else it'd be Harris again.

David Pinto's PMR numbers suggests that the Rays have the worst overall defense in the majors, and I think that's very close to the truth

Worse than the Marlins?

What do you guys think of Jacob McGee as a prospect? What's his ETA and how does he project? That looks like a pretty darn good season for a lefty in his age 20 season. (He didn't turn 21 until this past August). He was a 5th round pick in 2004

The problem with dismissing this is that I made a similar determination of a late-July NY Post article about the Mets looking to deal Kazmir for Zambrano, made myself feel better by saying, "Look, it's the NY Post."

Why did that have to be the one thing they got right??? It couldn't have been Gephardt for VP instead?

The problem that Tampa has - and it is a real one - is defense. David Pinto's PMR numbers suggests that the Rays have the worst overall defense in the majors, and I think that's very close to the truth, if not the absolute truth. The defense could be better this year, but if Longoria does take over 3B and Iwamura moves to 2B, it could easily be just as bad. At some point, the Rays need to settle guys into positions and let them play them; they can't keep having two or three guys doing OJT every year.

Agreed to some extent, but keeping Delmon and Dukes out of center and Harris off short improves the defense considerably. The defense was historically bad in the first half, but not too horrible in the second half. A defensive upgrade at short is the Rays' #1 priority, and even putting an average defender there probably improves the defense by 25 to 30 runs.

but Young's still got at least as much upside as does Upton, and he's not really that much more of a problem child.

-- MWE

I think this is interesting. My logic would be that Upton has more upside because he has the potential to provide more defensive value (I'll chalk this up as a transitional year), he may give up some power potential but makes up for it with more OBP, he has far more baserunning value, and then you make the positional adjustment.

I would think they'd give Reid Brignac every chance to win the job in spring training

Brignac's not ready, and that just adds another guy learning to play a position in the majors.

Tampa should have been targeting Renteria. With that door closed, Jack Wilson makes some sense for them, if the Pirates are still prepared to move him. Everett would, too, although the Astros don't have another real SS alternative.

-- MWE

As for the #3 starter, although Jackson had several moments of absolute futility in the first half (just as he's always been), he did have remarkable improvement in the second half and showed reasons for encouragement.

In addition, as Mike Emeigh notes, they do have Niemann, McGee, and Davis in the pipeline and Sonnanstine may still turn things around yet. I just hope not to see much more of the likes of Hamell and Howell.

It should be Adam Everett. I dunno how plausible that is, but that's who it should be...

Otherwise, I would think they'd give Reid Brignac every chance to win the job in spring training, or else it'd be Harris again.

I suspect they'll try to deal for Everett in the coming weeks, and if that doesn't work out, they'll overpay for Izturis.

What do you guys think of Jacob McGee as a prospect? What's his ETA and how does he project? That looks like a pretty darn good season for a lefty in his age 20 season. (He didn't turn 21 until this past August). He was a 5th round pick in 2004

He's a stud. Probably will be one of BA's top 10 prospects in baseball. However, he has a lot of room for improvement (especially in the consistency of his secondary stuff), and he's probably the furthest away of the big 3 (he, Davis and Price). Still, a lefty who can touch triple digits (supposedly he hit it about 5 times in Montgomery) is pretty special. His fastball is a true out pitch, and if he can just get to where he's comfortable throwing his curve and change at any point in the count, he could be very special. Of course, all the usual TINSTAAPP caveats. Still, if you've got 3 prospects who profile as #1/#2 starter types, I like those odds.

Tampa should have been targeting Renteria.

I was under the impression that if defense is the question, Edgar Renteria is not the answer.

Thanks Brickhaus. I lucked into him in my roto league. I had a minor league roster spot open up when Justin Upton got called up, so I just scanned for pitchers in high A and AA with high K rates and not abominable walks rates. I was surprised to find him.

The thinking is that because Kazmir is three years from free agency as opposed to one year for Santana, he might bring nearly as much in return.

How much further back can this line of thinking go? I mean, it used to be that you traded your free agent in his walk year when you were out of contention. So usually sometime in August. That has slowly backed up, progressing from offseason with 1 year left to trading deadline with 1+, to offseason with 2 years left. Now it's offseason with 3 years left? Wasn't Schilling traded to the Diamondbacks with 2 full years left on his contract? I remember being quite surprised at that. Then when Ben Sheets was more than 2 years away from FA, there were rumblings that the Brewers should trade him. Of course, that didn't happen and a Kazmir deal seems unlikely, but come on.

The only way the Rays will be left with nothing for Kazmir is if they completely suck for all of the next three years and don't trade him at all. If they get good around 2010, they should be able to sign him. If they're not good, they can still trade him then. But the idea that the Rays will have NO established players when they're good makes no sense.

They can flip Crawford for a middle infielder.

Sound logic. So you downgrade in LF and SP, but you get a middle infielder... never mind that it'd be just easier to get a slick fielding middle infielder as a free agent for a year, to keep the position warm for Brignac. But won't someone think of Theo...

Using Dial's method (which I sometimes refer to a LWZR for linear-weighted zone rating) for starters (runs above average):

NEW YORK
Posada -7
Mientkiewicz -1 / Phillips 0
Cano +13
A-Rod -4
Jeter -24
Matsui -4
Cabrera +13
Abreu -6
----------
-20

TAMPA BAY
Navarro -1
Pena -8
Wigginton -6 / Upton -4 / Harris -2
Iwamura -4
Harris -16
Crawford +14
Upton +1 / Dukes -4
Young +6
----------
-14

FLORIDA
Olivo -2
Jacobs -1
Uggla -20
Cabrera -14
Ramirez -15
Willingham -8
Amezaga +3 / de Aza 0
Hermida +4
----------
-53

Wow, Hermida killed the ball the second half the season (just a random observations).

Tony Pena Jr. would be a great fit for Tampa. Make it happen Dayton.

Tampa should have been targeting Renteria. With that door closed, Jack Wilson makes some sense for them, if the Pirates are still prepared to move him. Everett would, too, although the Astros don't have another real SS alternative.

I don't see how Renteria helps defensively. Jack Wilson makes sense. I wonder if Rocco Silf... Baldelli has any trade value, and if the Pirates would be interested in him.

See if they want Victor back. :)

Carl Pavano and Jason Marquis have WS rings. Big deal.

I also don't understand how you reconcile the notion that they should deal for SPs with WS rings, but shouldn't deal for Jack Wilson because "[t]hey're going to lose and they might as well lose cheap with young players than expensive with veterans."

Getting 2 starting pitchers, one with a WS ring, and a centerfielder who can play left is hardly downgrading. That's a fair trade.

A B-grade pitching prospect and an average center fielder near free agency are both pretty low on the Devil Rays' wish list right now, though Lester would be a big help for them. I don't think it's a bad offer, but it fails to address what the Devil Rays are looking for and I'd wager a fair amount that they'll get better offers if Kazmir is indeed on the market. And if they don't get better offers, they'll certainly get plenty of offers of comparable value that will fit their needs better.

Scott Kazmir, please kindly leave the AL East.

What would it take for the Red Sox to get Kazmir?

Would they take Crisp, Lester and Bowden?

No. Crisp isn't even close to necessary for the Rays. Not sure Bowden is an upgrade over what they already have either.

Frankly, I'm already sick of hearing these 'Crisp and other assorted spare parts for #1 starting pitcher' rumors. To the Red Sox nation: if you want to trade for Santana/Kazmir/Cabrera/any other good player, you need to trade Ellsbury and keep Crisp. Simple as that. Teams don't acquire impact players for spare parts, unless they're spare parts of impact quality. Same goes for the Yankees fans who want to acquire top players for Melky Cabrera and Shelly Duncan.

But what about the time when he was 18 and he got into a car accident with his teammate's car? Doesn't that do anything to his trade value?

You also have to consider the time when he changed the music in the clubhouse. That kind of thing can really hurt the team's chemistry.

My logic would be that Upton has more upside because he has the potential to provide more defensive value (I'll chalk this up as a transitional year), he may give up some power potential but makes up for it with more OBP, he has far more baserunning value, and then you make the positional adjustment.

My logic is this: Young hits the ball harder and more consistently than does Upton. Upton hits a lot of fly balls, Young hits a lot of line drives. Given the choice, I like the guy who hits the ball on the nose when he makes contact. Young's also got good defensive instincts.

I tend to describe players in terms of their skill sets. Young's skill set reminds me of Jose Guillen's; Upton's, of Juan Samuel's.

-- MWE

Honestly, the Mets are in PR jeopardy if they make any deal for Kaz. If the player they give up blossoms or Kazmir gets hurt, they'll be second-guessed mercilessly about whether the emotion of the bad Kazmir deal a few years ago came into play.

If I were them, I'd stay far away from a possible Kazmir 2.0 deal, unless it makes perfect baseball sense. Tampa has quite the history of asking way too much for their players; while I wouldn't turn down a deal entirely based on this reputation, I'd be skeptical walking in.

Amen, Brickhaus. Of course, what fun would this place be without those zany offers?

---

Loving the Rocco Siffredi reference, levski. I have a feeling that a lot of other people here got it, too.

My logic is this: Young hits the ball harder and more consistently than does Upton. Upton hits a lot of fly balls, Young hits a lot of line drives. Given the choice, I like the guy who hits the ball on the nose when he makes contact. Young's also got good defensive instincts.

I tend to describe players in terms of their skill sets. Young's skill set reminds me of Jose Guillen's; Upton's, of Juan Samuel's.

-- MWE

I think there's a case to be made that Young is the safer bet because of his phenomenal hand-eye coordination. However, I don't think Young has the superior ceiling. It would be helpful if you mentioned the skills you're taking into account or gave an idea as to what you think each guy can do at their peak, which I think is what I originally disagreed with.

I don't see a lot of difference between Young and Upton in terms of upside, but if you put a gun to my head I'd take Upton. He's only a year older and has already shown he can be an elite MLB hitter. Young hasn't done badly, but given that they're both still so young I'd prefer the somewhat more proven commodity. Plus, Young's BB-K ratio was truly scary.

Wow, Hermida killed the ball the second half the season (just a random observations).

It looks like someone finally convinced Hermida that he needed to be more aggressive at the plate. His walk rate went down from one every 8.7 PA to one every 11.9 PA, but his K rate also declined, and his hBIP went from .276 to .399.

As I've said before about Hermida, it's possible for a hitter to be overly selective at the plate. When Hermida played at Carolina two years ago, my comment then was that I've never seen a hitter with that kind of ability to draw walks take so many bad swings. I haven't seen a lot of Hermida since, but my suspicion is that once he got to the majors, pitchers simply refused to give in to him, and he just wasn't seeing hittable pitches even in favorable hitting counts.

-- MWE

Uggla -20
Cabrera -14
Ramirez -15

Oh my god. Someone should trade for Dontrelle Willis pronto. Or Scott Olsen.

Honestly, the Rays should be making prospect for star offers (to get the star), not the other way around. I really think Tampa is on the cusp of something special. Those defense numbers shown above show that even an average SS would be a huge improvement for them.

How comical would it be if the Mets, with their No. 1 need being a No. 1 starter, found themselves trying to trade for Kazmir 3½ seasons after getting Victor Zambrano for him?

Pure stand-up comedu, I say. You can't find something this good at the Comedy Cellar on a Friday night, I tell you.

"Reconcile with my ex-wife... please!"

Vizquel? Uribe? Or do the Rays really don't like going the FA way (he's a Type B, by the way).

Oh my god. Someone should trade for Dontrelle Willis pronto. Or Scott Olsen.

Yeah, cuz his 5.10 FIP and 4.76 xFIP are strong indicators that his downturn was a result of poor defense. ;)

It looks like someone finally convinced Hermida that he needed to be more aggressive at the plate.

Personally I think it was just a matter of Hermida being healthy finally.

It would be helpful if you mentioned the skills you're taking into account or gave an idea as to what you think each guy can do at their peak.

To me, the two most important skills a player has are:

1. how hard does he hit the ball when he connects? These are best evaluated by in-play ISO and hBIP rather than HR rate; a player who has a high percentage of doubles and triples tends to hit the ball harder than one whose slugging percentage is HR heavy. It's not always true - see Ryan Howard - but it's generally more reliable than either SLG or ISO as an indicator of power development. LD rate would be a better indicator, but it's not usually available for minor leaguers.

2. how often does he swing and miss? This is best measured by contact rate, subtracting walks and HBP from PA.

Young has made contact more often, and both the hBIP and the in-play ISO have typically been higher than Upton's throughout their minor-league careers. In 2006, when both played at Durham, Young's numbers were:

contact rate: 81.5%
in-play ISO: .108
hBIP: .358

while Upton's were:

contact rate: 77.8%
in-play ISO: .086
hBIP: .329

Young maintained his contact rate edge on Upton in 2007 (80.5% to 72.1%), and while Upton did have a better in-play ISO (.090 to .074) and hBIP (.393 to .338) in 2007, much of that was fueled by Upton's hot start; when Upton returned from his injury, his hBIP was about the same as Young's (.336 Upton, .335 Young) and his in-play ISO was lower than Young's (.051 Upton, .072 Young).

As to what I think each guy can do at his peak - Young could be Roberto Clemente minus some BA but with some ISO added. Upton? I don't know - Ryne Sandberg, maybe? I think Jose Guillen/Juan Samuel as a Young/Upton comp pair is more likely.

-- MWE

Personally I think it was just a matter of Hermida being healthy finally.

Yeah, but look at how the shape of his performance changed: fewer walks, fewer Ks.

-- MWE

Bowden destroyed Lancaster this year, a park that is perhaps the worst in baseball for a pitcher.

And his upside is a mid rotation starter by most accounts.

Lester was minor league pitcher of the year 2 years ago in AA,

I think it was Eastern League pitcher of the year, not minor league.

is 11-2 in the majors,

You left out his peripherals.

pitched a shutout in the WS

The standards for a shutout must have changed...and even still, this is irrelevant.

and is projected to be a starter next year for the best team in baseball.

Irrelevant.

And Crisp is a GG-quality legit starter in centerfield.

Ok.

Scott Kazmir probably projects as one of the 10 or so best starting pitchers in baseball leading to next year and you think it's a fair trade for the Devil Rays to give that up for an above average CF, a pitching prospect who hasn't pitched particularly well since 2005 (yes, I know he had cancer mixed in there) but if he reverses that trend could be a 2 or 3, and a pitching prospect whose best scenario many prognosticators are saying is a middle of the rotation guy? In what world is that a fair trade?

kevin, king of exaggeration. bowden was in high A cal for about 40 innings, and that's before summer heat really dried out the stadia there. bowden's got plenty of other question marks that remain unanswered despite his high A stint. the rays have a number of guys of bowden's quality. lester is certainly nice, but he's no kazmir, and you cannot bridge that gap with someone like bowden. finally, crisp is about as useless to the rays as he's to the red sox. he's got value, but he can't hit enough to replace one of crawford, upton or young, and the last thing the rays need is an overpaid 4th outfielder for defensive purposes. aside from that, kevin, your trade offer's the bomb

Welp, if Young and Upton are only going to be as good as J. Guillen and Samuel, then the Rays might as well trade this group of prospects in for the next bunch. Because they are presumably relying on those guys to be their 2nd and 3rd best hitters other than Pena, and if they end up being Jose Guillen and Juan Samuel, that is not going to be nearly enough, when you have to beat at least one of the Yankees or Red Sox.

The Rays would be moronic to trade Kazmir for Crisp, Lester and Bowden. The current Rays management has not shown itself to be moronic. Lets move on.

Kevin - stop it. You make Sox fans look as bad as Mets fans.

/ducks

Mike, you're not giving Upton his due for plate discipline. He's already a much better player than Samuel ever was. Gary Sheffield seems more apt.

####, the marlins took less from the Red Sox for Beckett and a contract they didn't want. Why should they give up more for Kazmir?

1. Kazmir is more proven than Beckett was at that time.

2. Hanley and Anibal both had higher value at the time than Bowden and Lester do now.

Mike, you're not giving Upton his due for plate discipline. He's already a much better player than Samuel ever was. Gary Sheffield seems more apt.

This I don't see at all. Sheffield would make more sense for a Young comparison. Upton doesn't make enough contact to be a Sheffield and he is also more of a threat on the bases and plays CF.

No, and no.

you think it's a fair trade for the Devil Rays to give that up for an above average CF, a pitching prospect who hasn't pitched particularly well since 2005 (yes, I know he had cancer mixed in there)

And that's the other thing -- what makes you convinced that it won't return or that he won't be otherwise affected by it? Heck, I suspect that's a significant part of the reason Kevin is willing to part with him.

As for the rest of the deal, Bowden doesn't give them anything that they don't already have in several other players not as good as McGee, Niemann, and/or Davis, and the last thing the Rays need is another OF.

2. Hanley and Anibal both had higher value at the time than Bowden and Lester do now.



You're kidding, right?

Absolutely not. I don't know how you could even justify the argument that Bowden and Lester are higher value than Ramirez and Sanchez were at the time of the trade.

Also, while Beckett may have been better established than Kazmir, you have to take into account the fact that Beckett had only one year until free agency when he was traded, while Kazmir still has three.

Also, looking at regular season only, both Kazmir's 2006 and 2007 were better than any season Beckett had before this year. Beckett was fabulous in the postseason, but he had been consistently injured and often mediocre as a Marlin.

Not sure I get the Juan Samuel comp for Upton either. At age 24, Upton has already had a better season than Samuel ever had in a 16 year career.

####, the marlins took less from the Red Sox for Beckett and a contract they didn't want. Why should they give up more for Kazmir?

How about the fact that the Rays aren't the Marlins? Either way, I don't see any Hanley Ramirez in the deal you propose. Add Ellsbury and they might begin to talk.

Those are important differences to Sheffield. I'm trying to think of a CFer with Upton's skillsets. Maybe Beltran with more K's and BB's? Sizemore comes to mind, but we haven't seen his career arc yet.

Anyway, Samuel is an unfair comparison.

1. Kazmir is more proven than Beckett was at that time.

--You're kidding, right?

The differences between Kazmir and Beckett's career as a Marlin are (a) Kazmir has a significantly better ERA+ and (b) Beckett had about 40+ more innings, which were largely mediocre.

Oh, and Kazmir is a LHP.

"I don't know how you could even justify the argument that Bowden and Lester are higher value than Ramirez and Sanchez were at the time of the trade."

I endorse this product or statement. The two packages aren't even close.

"Not sure I get the Juan Samuel comp for Upton either."

I think you guys are taking Mike a little too literally. He's just saying that they're similar types of players, not that they're similar in value or will have similar careers.

####, the marlins took less from the Red Sox for Beckett and a contract they didn't want. Why should they give up more for Kazmir?

In addition to the reasons mentioned above, absorbing "the contract they didn't want" lessens what the Red Sox had to pay for the player they did want. There's no such contract in a Kazmir deal.

Yeah, 2007 Kazmir > 2005 Josh Beckett. Nobody doubted Beckett's talent but he was playing in friendly circumstances in the NL with that park. Kazmir is, of course, in the AL and with an atrocious defense behind him.

And yes, I think Boston parted with more in the Beckett deal than in the proposed trade here... even without the hindsight of the Hanley Ramirez career path.

Kazmir is significantly more valuable now than was Beckett in 2005. Beckett had the world series creds, but had never thrown more than 180IP in a season and was knocked because of his recurring blister problems. Each of Kazmir's last three seasons were better than any season that Beckett had prior to the trade. Even now, Beckett has only one regular season in his career better than ANY full season of Kazmir's career.

Of course, debating these kind of trades is just a waste of time. The Rays will not trade ANYTHING for a package containing Coco Crisp. Come on, kevin, isn't it enough to get excited about the future (and, hell, the present!) of the Red Sox without needing to augment that dream with cheaply-acquired stars? Do you have any idea how insulting it is to fans of small market teams that the only time they're worthy of comment by folks like you is when you suggest silly fanboy trade proposals?

I suppose turnabout is fair play. Why don't the Sox trade David Ortiz for Rocco Baldelli, Jeff Niemann, and Edwin Jackson? That's an All-star CF, an A+ pitching prospect ready to step into a rotation, and a guy with A+ talent who just needs to put it all together, for a fat guy who can't even play defense. It's all upside for the Sox!

All this article tells me is that torturing Mets fans for sport and pagehits is now the full-time occupation of a significant portion of the NY sports media.

All this article tells me is that torturing Mets fans for sport and pagehits is now the full-time occupation of a significant portion of the NY sports media.

Now?

Now?

Good point. But it's always worth mentioning the sheer tonnage of sportswriters who turn into Louella Parsons when it comes to the Mets.

Sweet - as long as we're making up fantasy, Kevin-esque trades. The Giants will deal Randy Winn, Jonathon Sanchez, and Henry Sosa to the Rays for Scott Kazmir!

I think you guys are taking Mike a little too literally. He's just saying that they're similar types of players, not that they're similar in value or will have similar careers.

I think that analysts make far too much of walk rates and K/BB ratios in evaluating players, and pay far too little attention to in-play results. What a guy does when he isn't swinging the bat is normally less interesting, and less valuable in assessing future performance, than what he does when he IS swinging the bat.

I consider it telling that Upton's walk rate actually improved as the season went forward in 2007, while his other numbers went south. During his early-season hot streak prior to the injury, he was walking unintentionally once every 10.3 PAs; when he came back following the injury, he was walking unintentionally once every 8.3 PAs, and during the last month when he posted a .741 OPS in 108 PAs, his walk rate went to 1 UBB/7.2 PAs. He was also striking out less often as well, but not driving the ball as hard (as I pointed out before). I don't know for sure, but I suspect that what was happening was the reverse of what happened with Hermida; as pitchers started adjusting to what he was doing, he became "less" aggressive at the plate, taking defensive swings more frequently. He drew enough walks to keep a respectable OBP going, and still hit fly balls that carried over the wall now and then, but didn't hit the ball hard enough often enough to post a respectable BA or SLG.

I can see a case for Upton, of course. But I think that Young is being dismissed far too readily, in large part because of one set of numbers (127 K/26 BB), while Upton's flaws are being overlooked because he drew 65 walks. When I look beyond the walks at the players' other skills, Young seems to me to have a better base upon which to develop. And having watched both players at Durham in 2006, and looking at how they performed in the majors in 2007, I see nothing that convinces me that anything has changed.

-- MWE

It is false that 2007 Kazmir > 2005 Beckett. Their translate peripheral numbers are quite similar. Hits and homeruns allowed are the same, Beckett walks a few less, Kazmir strikes out a few more. So based on regular season performance they are even.

What other factors are there.

1) Injury history (Blister questions vs. Elbow questions)
2) Playoff record (Beckett won a world series all by himself)
3) Prospect/Scouting reputation (Beckett was the best prospect in years)
4) Years remaining on contract

Add these into the equation and Beckett comes out clearly ahead in talent projection. The only mitigating factor is contract length. Maybe that swings things the other way however since the crux of the comments were that Kazmir was better than Beckett I'll just say that this is simply not true, no more than it is true that Sabathia was better than Beckett this year.

Why don't the Sox trade David Ortiz for Rocco Baldelli, Jeff Niemann, and Edwin Jackson? That's an All-star CF, an A+ pitching prospect ready to step into a rotation, and a guy with A+ talent who just needs to put it all together, for a fat guy who can't even play defense. It's all upside for the Sox!

What are the Rays going to do with Ortiz when they have Jonny Gomes and (hopefully) Carlos Pena?

But I think that Young is being dismissed far too readily, in large part because of one set of numbers (127 K/26 BB),

First, that one set of numbers is pretty horrible. Young can obviously overcome that and become an excellent player, but it shouldn't be ignored. Second, it's not just one set of numbers. It's also the fact that Upton has hit .280/.356/.442 in 900 PAs while Young has hit .293/.319/.419 in 800 PAs.

Add these into the equation and Beckett comes out clearly ahead in talent projection. The only mitigating factor is contract length.

How about the fact that Beckett played in a better pitchers' park, with a superior defense behind him?

Also, Beckett certainly did not "win a world series all by himself." Indeed, although the game he won was a gem, he also lost one to Mussina in Florida.

As for prospect status, I don't see how one can possibly say that Beckett was a better prospect than Kazmir. At best, they were roughly equal.

In the end, though, the question was whether Kazmir is "more established" than Beckett was. To the extent that Beckett was more more famous due to his WS/playoff performance, I suppose that alone means he was more established.

As for prospect status, I don't see how one can possibly say that Beckett was a better prospect than Kazmir. At best, they were roughly equal.

Beckett edges him in prospect status. The hype surrounding him was unbelievable. However, I don't see any reasonable way it can be argued that Scott Kazmir as of right now had established more value than Josh Beckett at a similar point in 2005.

How about the fact that Beckett played in a better pitchers' park, with a superior defense behind him?

However, I don't see any reasonable way it can be argued that Scott Kazmir as of right now had established more value than Josh Beckett at a similar point in 2005.

I checked their translated component stats. They are very similar with Beckett allowing slightly fewer baserunners and Kazmir allowing slightly fewer homeruns. That strikes me as a very reasonable way. If you check their relevant numbers they are the same.

Gaelan, if you're talking about the BPro numbers, I'm looking at them and what I'm seeing is that Kazmir was, once again, a demonstrably better pitcher to that point of their careers. Is this not what I'm supposed to be looking at?

Beckett edges him in prospect status. The hype surrounding him was unbelievable.

Yeah, there's no hype about Kazmir's prospect status whatsoever. It's not like there are any Mets fans who were upset at the deal or anything.

Yeah, there's no hype about Kazmir's prospect status whatsoever. It's not like there are any Mets fans who were upset at the deal or anything.

Josh Beckett was ranked the 1st, 3rd, and 19th best prospect in baseball in the years in which he was eligible. Scott Kazmir was ranked 7th, 12th, and 19th. Yes, Beckett came with significantly more amateur clippings. Josh Beckett, to this day, is still the HS RHP to which all top HS RHPs are compared. Beckett was more hyped. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Gaelan, if you're talking about the BPro numbers, I'm looking at them and what I'm seeing is that Kazmir was, once again, a demonstrably better pitcher to that point of their careers. Is this not what I'm supposed to be looking at?

Yes, that's what I'm looking at. The numbers are basically the same. The only major difference is IP and I don't think that is a particularly relevant number.

No. We're talking about prospect status. The opinion of scouts is just as, if not more, important. Beckett has always thrown harder than Kazmir and was considered the best pitching prospect in years when he was drafted. 7(!) pitchers were drafted ahead of Kazmir in 2002.

No, kevin. We're talking prospect status when we discuss what would be given up to get Beckett or Kazmir. We're talking established levels of performance when discussing the Beckett/Kazmir performance. BTW, despite the fact that he was drafted 17th or whatever, Kazmir was ranked as the second best talent in the draft by Baseball America, behind B.J. Upton.

When Hermida played at Carolina two years ago, my comment then was that I've never seen a hitter with that kind of ability to draw walks take so many bad swings.

Rich Becker was the worst I've seen.

Yes, that's what I'm looking at. The numbers are basically the same. The only major difference is IP and I don't think that is a particularly relevant number.

1. I would say IP is important when you are a team considering trading for a starting pitcher and looking to consider his established value.

2. Kazmir's Translated ERAs for the 3 years are 3.93, 3.33, 3.29. Beckett's are 3.38, 4.06, 3.64. I believe this, in conjunction with Kazmir having demonstrated greater durability, would show that he has established a higher level of performance.

Yeah, there's no hype about Kazmir's prospect status whatsoever. It's not like there are any Mets fans who were upset at the deal or anything.

Kazmir was an excellent pitching prospect. Josh Beckett was the greatest pitching prospect since Roger Clemens or Dwight Gooden. Those were the immediate comparisons when anybody talked about his stuff. His fastball and curveball were legendary before he pitched in AA.

Beckett ranked 3rd and 1st on BA's list before losing eligibility. Kazmir ranked 12th and 7th. He was a helluva prospect, and Mets fans were right to self-immolate following the trade, but he just wasn't Josh Beckett.

Look, this isn't really the point. Beckett had one more year left before free agency, so he wasn't particularly cost-controlled, and he had the option of free agency the next year. Kazmir has three years of arbitration left, so he is both locked in for longer and has two years of significantly below-grade salaries to go.

Further, the Red Sox took on Lowell's (then-perceived) albatross of a contract.
Further, Hanley Ramirez was a BA top 10 prospect, and Anibal Sanchez a top 40 guy. Bowden will be further down the list than either of them, Crisp is signed to a pretty bad contract. Lester could conceivably compare to one half of that package (more valuable than Sanchez, less than Ramirez), but it doesn't matter much given all the other issues. It's a bad comparison.

Imagine we can trade players we don't need for top stars! Then imagine we all get a pony! If I could change one thing about the internet, I would get rid of 95% of the libertarians. If I could change two things, I would ban fans from proposing these ridiculous trades.

2. Kazmir's Translated ERAs for the 3 years are 3.93, 3.33, 3.29. Beckett's are 3.38, 4.06, 3.64. I believe this, in conjunction with Kazmir having demonstrated greater durability, would show that he has established a higher level of performance.

That only matters if you think that allowing earned runs is a specific skill. It may be in some cases, like Tom Glavine, but even if it is it is subject to much more noise than H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 all of which are the same. So I don't think that trumps the fact that their component stats are still the same.

I'm also not sure that IP stands as a reliable proxy for durability. First, the data does not demonstrate that Kazmir is more durable on a per start basis which is the most important form of durability. Second, with regard to injury risk if you throw in other, more subjective, indicators I would say that Kazmir has significantly more injury risk compared to even the blister prone Beckett.

Imagine we can trade players we don't need for top stars! Then imagine we all get a pony! If I could change one thing about the internet, I would get rid of 95% of the libertarians. If I could change two things, I would ban fans from proposing these ridiculous trades.

and if you could change 3 things? i'd say we could all use a pony or 2.