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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

N.Y. Sun: Goldman: It May Be Time for Yankees To Cut Giambi

Fine...right after someone cuts Mad Dog Russo.

As the Yankees have struggled to a .500 record in the early going, the focus on how to “fix” the team has focused on the pitching staff and the difficulties of Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, the team’s two hurlers on the rare side of 20-something. This weekend, Hank Steinbrenner raised the possibility that Joba Chamberlain, another young pitcher, will switch out of the bullpen and rescue the rotation. Yet the offense has also been a disappointment, and it’s something that the Yankees can improve far more easily than they can the pitching, starting by benching, trading, or releasing Jason Giambi.

It is far simpler for the Yankees to do what they can to improve the offense than it will be for them to force the pitching staff to take a leap forward into maturity and consistency. The latter is a function of time and experience, the former a function of knowing when to stop forcing a bad hand. In this analogy, Giambi is the equivalent of trying to win with a pair of deuces.

Repoz Posted: April 22, 2008 at 09:35 AM | 42 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralNY Yankees

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   1. The Essex Snead Posted: April 22, 2008 at 09:56 AM (#2753891)
I have been bounced so many times from online poker tournaments from 22 (or 33 or 44) turning into trips on a face-carded flop.

Would the Yankees eating Giambi's salary be the largest such meal in pro sports? And how much ketchup would they use to disguise the flavor?
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:08 AM (#2753899)
Giambi is the equivalent of trying to win with a pair of deuces.
Gotta pay up for that deuce on the river.

Dbacks dumped Russ Ortiz on Jun 13, 2006, when he was in the second year of his 4 year, $32m deal. He collected just around $10m while on the Dbacks roster, meaning the Dbacks kicked him out with around $22m left on his deal.
   3. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:11 AM (#2753901)
How much were the O's in a hole to Albert Belle for? Or does that one not count?
   4. DL from MN Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:11 AM (#2753902)
Release Giambi, sign Barry Bonds. It's only money.
   5. Mister High Standards Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:13 AM (#2753903)
I have been bounced so many times from online poker tournaments from 22 (or 33 or 44) turning into trips on a face-carded flop.


Small and mid pairs are the most overplayed hands in online poker. God I love it.
   6. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:21 AM (#2753909)
Would the Yankees eating Giambi's salary be the largest such meal in pro sports?

The Knicks and Larry Brown have to be in that conversation somewhere - he had something like 4 years and $40 million remaining on his 5/$50 million contract when they parted company. They ended up settling for less than $20 million, I believe.
   7. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:23 AM (#2753910)
Online Poker....

Where do you guys play now, how do you fund it?
   8. Dag Nabbit Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:24 AM (#2753911)
How much were the O's in a hole to Albert Belle for? Or does that one not count?

Don't count. Insurance picked it up. They just had to keep him on the DL.
   9. AJM Misses Brodeur Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:29 AM (#2753914)
Where do you guys play now, how do you fund it?

Poker Stars. I haven't had to put money in in a while, but I noticed that they have a few different options that should work for the US based player.
   10. Dr Love Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:29 AM (#2753915)
Would the Yankees eating Giambi's salary be the largest such meal in pro sports?


Michael Finley was owed over $30M from the Mavs after being waived.
   11. Mister High Standards Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:31 AM (#2753918)
Full Tilt. CreditCard. They just ignore the law.
   12. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: April 22, 2008 at 10:40 AM (#2753926)
Does anyone know when teams started collectively employing the shift on Giambi? I realize there are a number of factors that have led to his precipitous demise offensively, but I'm curious to know how much the shift has played into it. I think I remember reading somewhere that Giambi thought the shift gave him more hits than it took away, but in my admittedly small empirical sample that hasn't been my impression.

The guy was a .290-.300 hitter every year until 2003, and he hasn't had even a whiff of .280 since. A good deal of his impressive OPS+ seems to be made up of walks, doubles and homers -- in 2006 he had more extra base hits than singles.
   13. Nasty Nate Posted: April 22, 2008 at 11:00 AM (#2753939)
(didnt RTFA)
I don't understand why these situations are only presented as having 2 options: keep playing the guy or cut him and eat his salary.

Why not just plop him on the bench? If he's not worse than the 25th guy on your roster, why cut him? Giambi could be a pinch hitter and insurance against an injury to any OF or 1B. Although, in this specific case its hard to envision him pinch-hitting for anyone in that lineup (Melky?)
   14. Cowboy Popup Posted: April 22, 2008 at 11:15 AM (#2753952)
(Melky?)

Not Melky, he's second in HRs on the team.

But if Duncan/Ensberg/Betemit start at first, then he could pinch hit for them, especially if Mike Timlin is pitching.
   15. Nasty Nate Posted: April 22, 2008 at 11:25 AM (#2753959)
hell, pinch hit Giambi for anyone in the lineup if Timlin is pitching
   16. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: April 22, 2008 at 11:37 AM (#2753965)
His BABIP is .088. it just can't stay that low. Impossible.

What if he just did the swinging bunt to third until they stopped with that shift?
   17. poludamas Posted: April 22, 2008 at 11:41 AM (#2753969)
What if he just did the swinging bunt to third until they stopped with that shift?

Then he'd just be clogging up the bases all the time.
(ducks)
   18. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 22, 2008 at 12:29 PM (#2754014)
Given the $$ invested, I don't see the Yanks giving up on Giambi until we're a lot closer to Memorial Day. As bad as he's been, Giambi still has an OPS 7 points higher than David Ortiz, who is viewed as just off to a slow start.
   19. shoewizard Posted: April 22, 2008 at 12:29 PM (#2754016)
His BABIP is .088. it just can't stay that low. Impossible.


Agreed....however his line drive rate is only 8%. (Lg avg 19%) So it's not like he's stinging the ball all over the place and hitting it right at people either. And his HR/F rate is quite low for him as well.

He's only got 59 PA's, and things can change quickly with one or two good games. But if he does not start hitting more line drives, the Mendoza line could indeed be a barrier up till the all star break or beyond.
   20. The Essex Snead Posted: April 22, 2008 at 12:35 PM (#2754021)
As bad as he's been, Giambi still has an OPS 7 points higher than David Ortiz, who is viewed as just off to a slow start.

Yeah, compare the guy coming off an 80-game 790 OPS season with the guy that's coming off a career year. That'll work.
   21. Edmundo, survivor of 7 right-sourcings Posted: April 22, 2008 at 12:38 PM (#2754025)
Would the Yankees eating Giambi's salary be the largest such meal in pro sports?
Chris Webber fake-injured his way to a high-30s settlement from the 76ers. It's amazing how quickly all his ailments healed up after he landed in Detroit.

39M based on this article.
   22. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: April 22, 2008 at 12:40 PM (#2754028)
His BABIP is .088. it just can't stay that low. Impossible.


It can if he's incapable of doing anything with fat pitches but foul them off, which appears to be the case.
   23. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: April 22, 2008 at 01:00 PM (#2754048)
The quotes from Dumars about Webber in Edmundo's article are hilaripus:

"He embodies everything we try to stand for, as a basketball team and as an organization," Pistons president of basketball operations Joe Dumars said. "He is what we want to be about.

"People of his character, his background, his upbringing, those are the kind of people we want to bring to the Pistons. He is more than just a basketball player."


Yeah, he's a basketball player who just gold-bricked, malingered and extorted his way to a giant pile o'cash.
   24. HowardMegdal Posted: April 22, 2008 at 01:21 PM (#2754085)
How about a Delgado for Giambi and Shelley Duncan trade? In exchange for taking on extra salary, Mets get Duncan, who can either platoon with Giambi or take the lion's share of 1B ABs and make the Mets less lefty-heavy. Yankees get some salary relief, a chance that Delgado revives, and worst-case scenario, platoon Ensberg/Betemit at 1B.
   25. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: April 22, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2754118)
Delgado's due to make $16M in 2008, Giambi $21M plus a $5M buyout for 2009--so the Mets would be taking a hit of $10M to acquire the rights to Shelley Duncan for 2008 plus five more years.

Zips for the three players...

Delgado: .257/.349/.476 (age 36)
Duncan: .242/.311/.469 (age 28)
Giambi: .241/.398/.482 (age 37)

Factor in baserunning and defense, Delgado and Giambi are essentially equal in value. So it basically comes down to whether or not it's worth $10M to acquire Duncan. And I have a hard time seeing how a 28 year-old AAAA 1B projected to have a 780 OPS could possibly be worth it. The guy's pretty much the definition of replacement-level.

Sorry, I don't see how the trade makes a lick of sense for either team unless the respective front offices of each have diametrically opposed views of the immediate future prospects of the players involved.
   26. Greg Pope Posted: April 22, 2008 at 01:53 PM (#2754127)
He's only got 59 PA's,...

Sure, just one under the threshold for Voros's Law to apply. I say give him 2 more PA and if his OPS+ isn't 135 by then, he's out.
   27. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: April 22, 2008 at 02:15 PM (#2754157)
Yeah, he's a basketball player who just gold-bricked, malingered and extorted his way to a giant pile o'cash.

How dare you question St. Joe Dumars of the Not Bill Laimbeer or Dennis Rodman? Plus Webber is a U. of M. grad.
   28. JC in DC Posted: April 22, 2008 at 02:24 PM (#2754172)
Jeter at 1b, Gonzalez at SS, Giambi to hell. You fix 1b, D at SS goes from below avg. to good, suffer a bit at the plate at SS but no worse than when Giambi was at 1b.
   29. Dag Nabbit Posted: April 22, 2008 at 02:28 PM (#2754181)
   30. Edmundo, survivor of 7 right-sourcings Posted: April 22, 2008 at 02:33 PM (#2754190)
You gotta like #9, Greg Vaughn, 46 PAs, 1 single, 7 hits, .840 OPS (Colorado, mind you).
   31. John Lynch Posted: April 22, 2008 at 02:40 PM (#2754206)
Webber is a U. of M. grad

Graduate? As in "has a degree from the University of Michigan?" I don't think so. Please don't lump him with those of us who actually obtained a degree.
   32. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's! Posted: April 22, 2008 at 02:44 PM (#2754217)
Graduate? As in "has a degree from the University of Michigan?" I don't think so. Please don't lump him with those of us who actually obtained a degree.

I'm sure he thought about taking a couple of classes. E for effort!
   33. SoSH U at work Posted: April 22, 2008 at 02:47 PM (#2754223)
Graduate? As in "has a degree from the University of Michigan?" I don't think so. Please don't lump him with those of us who actually obtained a degree.


Do the other four members of the Fab Five? I know King and Jackson do, and I recall Howard pursuing his degree while he was in the NBA? How about Rose?
   34. DCW3 * Posted: April 22, 2008 at 03:03 PM (#2754278)
Does anyone know when teams started collectively employing the shift on Giambi? I realize there are a number of factors that have led to his precipitous demise offensively, but I'm curious to know how much the shift has played into it. I think I remember reading somewhere that Giambi thought the shift gave him more hits than it took away, but in my admittedly small empirical sample that hasn't been my impression.

Well, any effect the shift had would presumably show up his his BABIP, and his sudden dropoff from 2002 to 2003 is pretty startling:

1996: .319 BABIP
1997: .316
1998: .314
1999: .333
2000: .335
2001: .343
2002: .328
2003: .259
2004: .223
2005: .292
2006: .245
2007: .263
2008: .086

Now, there are other potential explanations for that besides the shift, but that drop is pretty freaky.
   35. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: April 22, 2008 at 03:06 PM (#2754286)
Jason Giambi's inability to hit singles is pretty impressive, historically speaking.

That was kind of what set me to thinking about the effect of the shift, which would take away singles far more than any other type of hit. Again, I don't know when it was that teams started using the shift on him routinely -- could that be the reason his BA has fallen off so quickly (and, relatedly, why is more inclined to take a walk, thereby keeping his OBP from descending as quickly as his BA -- I just find it hard to believe pitchers have been deliberately pitching around him THAT much in the Yankees lineup)?

On edit: thanks for that, DCW3. I would have guessed that trend from looking at the other numbers, too. I don't remember teams putting a shift on him when he was with the A's -- 2002/2003 would be a logical starting point.
   36. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: April 22, 2008 at 03:13 PM (#2754306)
I'm not sure when the shift began. But I know it was being employed on Opening Day 2003, because Jeter tried to take 3rd base when no one was covering it after a Giambi hit, and that's when he ran into catcher Huckaby's shinguard and got hurt. I do not particularly recall whether the shift was employed regularly in '02, but I do not remember being surprised by it on that '03 play, so I assume it must have been. I cannot speak for Giambi's Oakland days.
   37. Ken Arneson Posted: April 22, 2008 at 04:18 PM (#2754552)
Teams played the shift against Giambi when he played for Oakland, too.
   38. Rich Posted: April 22, 2008 at 05:20 PM (#2754765)
I would just reduce his PT for now.
   39. Srul Itza Posted: April 22, 2008 at 08:55 PM (#2755044)
I would just reduce his PT for now.

Yeah, I would have sat him today, for example.

What do you mean, he just hit a home run? It's the principle of the thing, dammnit!!
   40. thetailor Posted: April 23, 2008 at 03:52 AM (#2755472)
Giambi is the equivalent of trying to win with a pair of deuces.


Two queens at Casino Night. I'm going to... drop a deuce on everybody.
   41. RollingWave Posted: April 23, 2008 at 04:41 AM (#2755476)
with that last game he's above the 04 line in terms of LD% and HR/FB....

they should give him some more time to see if he can turn it around.
   42. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 23, 2008 at 07:05 AM (#2755484)
Giambi already brought his career back from the dead once. I doubt he can outdo Lazarus.

Only Tom Brunasky did that.
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