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Monday, June 02, 2008

N.Y. Sun: Marchman: Chipper’s Impossible Pursuit of .400

Larry and the blue notes...from Marchman.

Ted Williams was unparalleled, of course, but his strikeout rate wasn’t the reason why. In 1941, the American League as a whole struck out in 9.1% of its plate appearances; the Splendid Splinter, in 5.9% of his, 64% of the league average. During the last year, Jones has struck out 10.5% of the time, against a league average of 17.3%, 61% of the average. In context, then, Jones has, of late, been better at putting the bat on the ball than Williams was in his prime — which is pretty impressive, even if he isn’t going to match that .406 average in large part because there is an absolute difference between a league where hitters strike out once every five or so at bats and one where they strike out once every 11.

That the context has changed — that there are twice as many strikeouts in today’s game because hitters swing harder and pitchers throw harder, because of specialized relief pitching and smaller parks that reward a home run swing — is what we really ought to take from a comparison of Jones to the mythic hitters of yore. Baseball changes over time; it gets harder, faster, and mainly it just becomes different, in an absolute sense. A game in which a Williams-class contact hitter strikes out more than an average hitter did in 1941, and in which he hits in small parks off pill-throwing short men toward nimble athletes with huge gloves, may not be one in which hitting .400 is possible. But that doesn’t mean that hitting .375 in it for a full year isn’t, in its own way, nearly as impressive an achievement.

Repoz Posted: June 02, 2008 at 06:22 AM | 42 comment(s)
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   1. Craig Calcaterra  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 08:52 AM (#2802887)
Great piece, Tim. For as far as we have come in terms of writers recognizing the notion of context, we will see 10 mindless "Can Chipper hit .400?!" articles for every one, like this one, which rationally assesses it rather than simply concluding "nah probably not."
   2. Ziggy  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 11:41 AM (#2803030)
Hey guys, read this one. This is a really good piece.
   3. Dan Szymborski  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 12:04 PM (#2803049)
I have Chipper now projected to hit 346/441/583 the rest of the way en route to 370/462/606.
   4. Kyle S at work  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 12:16 PM (#2803057)
I'll take it.
   5. bunyon  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 12:17 PM (#2803062)
Dan, is that an MVP season?
   6. HowardMegdal  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 12:28 PM (#2803068)
This will be what makes Chipper's HOF case a lead-pipe cinch, right? I thought he was in before this year, but I know there was considerable opinion on both sides. But this will get him in for sure, assuming he stays somewhat healthy and above .350.

This references his actual getting in, rather than whether he deserves it or not, to be clear.
   7. RB in NYC (Now with Resolutions!)  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 12:35 PM (#2803078)
Dan, is that an MVP season?
A 1.068 OPS? It has to be. It would be the fourth highest third base OPS total of all-time, behind Schmidt's '80, Brett's '81 and Chipper's own '99. (It's 0.001 ahead of A-Rod from last year.)
   8. bunyon  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 12:41 PM (#2803080)
RB, yes, good point. I was more wondering how it stacked up against other projections, I guess.

I would definitely think it would get him close.

I also agree with Howard; if he finishes with a line like Dan projects, he'll ensure his HOF candidacy. Though I think he should be in anyway.
   9. Kyle S at work  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 12:50 PM (#2803086)
Chase Utley is going to be tough to beat (and deservedly so - he's having a tremendous year). Lance Berkman and Albert Pujols aren't slacking off either. The top NL hitters are really crushing the ball this year.
   10. Craig Calcaterra  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 12:54 PM (#2803090)
Dan, is that an MVP season?

A 1.068 OPS? It has to be.


I hate to go there because every Chipper thread goes there, but even if he puts that season up, if the Mets turn it around and win the division, David Wright will probably get it based on some amorphus team leadership thing. Or Chase Utley if the Phillies do.

Other candidates: Only guy in the Central would be Pujols, right? The Cubs have too many guys playing well to credit one dude. If the Cardinals won their division and the Braves did not, I could totally feature Pujols winning it.

West: Can't think of anyone now.

Upshot: It's early, but I think it comes down to whichever of the East's star infielders plays for the division winner vs. Pujols if the Cardninals somehow find a way to pull it out.

Edit: Forgot Berkman. I kind of doubt he has a chance though now that he's going to be concentrating on drag bunts.
   11. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:11 PM (#2803099)
I hate to go there because every Chipper thread goes there, but even if he puts that season up, if the Mets turn it around and win the division, David Wright will probably get it based on some amorphus team leadership thing. Or Chase Utley if the Phillies do.
The Mets are 3½ games out of first. I find it amusing that they have to "turn it around" to win the division.

The Yankees were 12½ games out at this point last season, and finished only 2 games back. THEY had to "turn it around". The Mets just need to play a little better.
   12. Craig Calcaterra  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:27 PM (#2803112)
The Mets are 3½ games out of first. I find it amusing that they have to "turn it around" to win the division.


Point taken. I guess what I meant -- since we're talking about MVPs, which are an inherently subjective thing -- was that the Mets turn around the perception that they're having a disastrous season. A peception, mind you, fueled by apocolyptic headlines in NY papers for the past couple of weeks.

The Braves are 3.5 games out too. Right or wrong, if they win the division it will not be a story about rebounding from the darkest pits of adversity. In contrast, if the Mets do, the turnaround meme will carry the day, and Wright's MVP chances right along with it.
   13. JPWF13  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:29 PM (#2803116)
I also agree with Howard; if he finishes with a line like Dan projects, he'll ensure his HOF candidacy. Though I think he should be in anyway.


3Bs (not in HOF) ranked by runs created:
Cnt Player RC
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Chipper Jones 1626
2 Darrell Evans 1499
3 Ron Santo 1379
4 Graig Nettles 1265
5 Buddy Bell 1217
6 Ken Boyer 1185
7 Bob Elliott 1179
8 Robin Ventura 1162
9 Toby Harrah 1151
10 Ron Cey 1148

3Bs not in HOF, ranked by OPS+ (5000 + PAs)
Cnt Player OPS+ PA From To Ages
+----+-----------------+----+-----+----+----+-----+
1 Chipper Jones 144 8380
2 Scott Rolen 126 6527
3 Ron Santo 125 9396
4 Bob Elliott 124 8190
5 Bill Madlock 123 7372
6 Ron Cey 121 8344
7 Heinie Zimmerman 121 5740
8 Troy Glaus 120 5432
9 Darrell Evans 119 10737
10 Richie Hebner 119 7016
11 Sal Bando 119 8288
12 Stan Hack 119 8506

Is Chipper the very best 3B not in the HOF?
I guess if you think Chipper is a terrible defensive 3B and Santo a great one there's still an argument, but if Chipper is still productive with the bat for another year or two that argument will be gone as well.
   14. Boots Day  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:36 PM (#2803122)
So Dan, you have Chipper exceeding his career high in BA (and tying his career high in OBP) from here on out, at the age of 36? I am no expert in projections, but I think I'd take the under on that.
   15. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:36 PM (#2803123)
It's going to be Utley. The writers love homers and RBIs and a middle infielder who hits 35+ homers and drives in 120+ is going to have a hard time not winning it.
   16. Harveys Wallbangers  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:43 PM (#2803130)
Chipper Jones is a Hall of Famer. The notion that his defense makes him "marginal" is stupid.

Not silly. Not questionable. Stupid.

I rarely use such harsh terms when describing alternative suggestions. But the idea that the central figure on one if not THE most successful NL team of the last 15 years is NOT a Hall of Fame player is beyond absurd.
   17. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2803140)
The Braves are 3.5 games out too. Right or wrong, if they win the division it will not be a story about rebounding from the darkest pits of adversity. In contrast, if the Mets do, the turnaround meme will carry the day, and Wright's MVP chances right along with it.

One thing to consider about Wright's candidacy is that Reyes getting hot as the Mets started winning might take away from Wright's thunder a bit.
   18. Neil Kinnock...Lord Palmerston! (Orinoco)  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2803142)
It's going to be Utley. The writers love homers and RBIs and a middle infielder who hits 35+ homers and drives in 120+ is going to have a hard time not winning it.


At some point, the writers will add an addendum of "CBP stats don't count" to the Best RBI Man standard of voting. It's going to be a dumb addition to a stupid rule since they still wouldn't know what park factor is.

We saw this with Coors. A while after it becomes common wisdom that a park is a hitter heaven, the writers will discount ALL batting performance there, with no attempt at neutralizing anything.

After two consecutive Phillies won MVPs, I sense the backlash is comming this year.
   19. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:54 PM (#2803146)
If the Dodgers get hot and make the playoffs, I could see Russell Martin as a candidate and don't forget about McCann whose tremendous start has been overshadowed by Chipper's.
   20. Dan Szymborski  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:09 PM (#2803173)
So Dan, you have Chipper exceeding his career high in BA (and tying his career high in OBP) from here on out, at the age of 36? I am no expert in projections, but I think I'd take the under on that.

Dude was healthy last year and exceeded his career high in BA at age 35, even if it was unlikely. Given that he's hit .405 for now more than a third of the season, I don't think .346 the rest of the season is all that unlikely.
   21. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:13 PM (#2803181)
West: Can't think of anyone now.
Eric Byrnes. Mark his words.
   22. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:21 PM (#2803190)
As an aside, man the NL West is bad this year. The only team that is above .500 is Arizona and that's largely because they are 20-8 against their division. It was supposed to be much better than that this year.
   23. bunyon  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:30 PM (#2803207)
Off-topic, except that it relates to Chipper. A few weeks ago there was a thread discussing Maddux and I mentioned a game in which he lost a win on a 9th inning error by Chipper. Chipper said after the game that he was now afraid that Maddux would end his career with 299 wins. Anyway, I think I finally found the game:

game

Maddux would've finished the season with 20 wins if not for that error (well, assuming everything else played out the same).
   24. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:33 PM (#2803209)
Maddux would've finished the season with 20 wins if not for that error (well, assuming everything else played out the same).

I've been to the universe where the error didn't happen. Chipper injured Maddux in the postgame celebration and ended his career with under 250 wins.
   25. Craig Calcaterra  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:42 PM (#2803220)
"Maddux would've finished the season with 20 wins if not for that error (well, assuming everything else played out the same)."

There were a lot of little things that seemed to cost Maddux 20 win seasons almost every year while with Atlanta. Two shortened seasons due to labor issues for starters, followed by, in no particular order, Brad Clontz, Mark Wholers' yips, Ryan Kelsko's defense, Mike Cather, and last, but certainly not least, Maddux's refusal to pitch to Javy Lopez.

Check this box score out. Yeah, it was against a dominant Curt Schilling, but that's the kind of game that (in my memory at least) seemed to happen to Maddux more than it did to anyone else.
   26. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 02:55 PM (#2803232)
   27. Coach Mark S. is a blogging fool  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#2803246)
In 1999, Randy Johnson was 17-9 and should have won 20+ games, except for these four games.

Johnson was 0-4 with 32 innings, 6 runs (5 ER - 1.69 ERA), 19 H, 10 BB and 54K. The D-Backs had 0 runs and (in order) 0 hits, 1 hit, 2 hits and 3 hits.

Edited to add: Doh. Dahlian got there first.
   28. Craig Calcaterra  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 03:12 PM (#2803248)
Good point: RJ got boned a lot. I'm sure someone has done the study somewhere, but of all those old hack sportscaster folk tales, the one that seems the most true to me is the notion that a team's own bats go cold when their own pitcher is throwing bullets. I guess part of that is context effect (a cold night affects all hitters, etc.) but at the risk of offending the reasonable among you, I wonder if RJ was so damn intimidating that his own hitters were tied up too.
   29. The Essex Snead  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 03:18 PM (#2803253)
Good point: RJ got boned a lot.

Once by Ron Villone, and twice by Jose Jimenez! That's prison-shower boning!
   30. Dedicated to Esoteric but he wasn't listening  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 03:19 PM (#2803254)
This is one of the best articles Tim Marchman has ever written - anybody reading this thread must absolutely click through to RTFA, because the excerpt doesn't do justice to the wonderful statistical and analytical ground he covers so pithily, with proper historical context to illuminate the numbers. Bravo, Timmy, and bravo to the NY Sun for allowing these sorts of stat-wonkish articles to be printed. Well done all around.
   31. Dizzypaco  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 03:22 PM (#2803256)
I'm often not as big of fan of Marchman's analysis as others, but this is a pretty good article. My main area of disagreement with him in this article is on the "entropy" argument - other than that, its pretty good.
   32. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 03:27 PM (#2803263)
In 2000, Pedro Martinez had a 155 ERA+ in the eleven starts in which he did not get a win.
   33. OCF  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#2803273)
In 2000, Pedro Martinez had a 155 ERA+ in the eleven starts in which he did not get a win.

I went back and checked Gibson's 1968. For the 12 starts he didn't win, his RA+ was a much more modest 107. He did have four games in which he allowed 1 run and didn't win, but he also had games in which he allowed 5, 5, and 6 runs. (Of course, the flip side is that his RA+ was 543 in the 22 games he did win.)
   34. bibigon  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 03:56 PM (#2803280)
In 2000, Pedro Martinez had a 155 ERA+ in the eleven starts in which he did not get a win.


Just to really drive this point home - that's a much better ERA+ than the #2 guy in ERA+ (Mike Sirotka - 132) had in all games.
   35. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 04:24 PM (#2803299)
#2 guy in ERA+ (Mike Sirotka - 132)

This is the earth shattering part of that stat.
   36. Craig Calcaterra  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 04:32 PM (#2803303)
Wow. I don't think I've even THOUGHT of Mike Sirotka since 2000.

Edit: duh, totally forget that he was "shouldergate."
   37. vortex of dissipation  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 05:02 PM (#2803322)
Wow. I don't think I've even THOUGHT of Mike Sirotka since 2000.


That not surprising, unless you're a Garth Brooks fan.
   38. Kirby Kyle  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 05:30 PM (#2803339)
In the five starts in which Tim Lincecum has failed to win this season (a loss and four NDs), he has a 2.25 ERA.
   39. cardsfanboy  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 05:40 PM (#2803343)
I have to agree with Harvey on this, Chipper easily past the HOF line a couple of years ago, his continued excellence while his contenders like Rolen, Ensberg and Chavez have declined has only helped strengthen his case. I think he past the hit by a bus stage a couple of years ago, at the worse he past it with his 6th place mvp finish last season.
   40. DCA  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 05:59 PM (#2803353)
In the five starts in which Tim Lincecum has failed to win this season (a loss and four NDs), he has a 2.25 ERA.

And in the 7 appearances in which he does have a W, he has a 2.22 ERA.
   41. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..)  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 10:50 PM (#2803830)
#2 guy in ERA+ (Mike Sirotka - 132)

This is the earth shattering part of that stat.


Followed closely by the WHIP of 0.737.
   42. SoSHially Unacceptable  Posted: June 02, 2008 at 11:15 PM (#2803882)
In 2000, Pedro Martinez had a 155 ERA+ in the eleven starts in which he did not get a win.


In 2003, he had 11 starts that ended up in a no-decision. In those 11 games, Pedro gave up only 13 earned runs (14 total).

He did this despite playing for a team that scored 961 runs on the season, 67 runs more than the next-highest scoring team in the AL.
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