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Monday, August 13, 2007

N.Y. Sun: Marchman: Yankees Face the Toughest Battle for Playoff Spot

Unless they face that Jhonny (I Shrunk in a Big Spot) Peralta led team again.

This disparity means that, speaking roughly, the Yankees project to play .572 ball over the rest of the season, while the Indians project to play .549 ball. Combine that with their actual records to this point, and the Yankees’ projected record comes out at 91–71, while the Tribe’s is 90–72. Those April losses counted.

Unhappily for Yankees partisans, the same exercise shows the Red Sox finishing with a 100–62 record. More happily, it shows the Detroit Tigers ending the year at 88–74, with the California Angels grabbing the West title with a 92–70 record, and the Mariners ending up at 87–75. That would put the Yankees, Indians, Red Sox, and Angels in the playoffs, which certainly sounds reasonable enough. These aren’t, though, large margins, and a bad week could well knock the Yankees out of the hunt.

Repoz Posted: August 13, 2007 at 04:30 AM | 18 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, NY Yankees

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1. Phil Coorey, You Won't Posted: August 13, 2007 at 04:39 AM (#2483114)

If the Red Sox win 100 games, I'll run around Toowoomba naked with my heavily pregnant wife on my shoulders.

2. Rich Posted: August 13, 2007 at 05:47 AM (#2483124)

As SG pointed out today at RLYW, since May 29th the Yankees' record is 45-22.

If a similar analysis using third-order standings had been done on that date, what would it have projected the Yankees' record to be using May 29th as a starting point and today as an end point?

3. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 10:17 AM (#2483141)

If the Red Sox win 100 games, I'll run around Toowoomba naked with my heavily pregnant wife on my shoulders.

I'll be damned, Phil managed to find a way to make me root for the Red Sox to win 100 games

4. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: August 13, 2007 at 10:31 AM (#2483145)

If the Red Sox win 100 games, I'll run around Toowoomba naked with my heavily pregnant wife on my shoulders.

Would you still do that if they still finish second because the Yankees won 101 games?

5. Liver of blaspheming 'zop Posted: August 13, 2007 at 10:42 AM (#2483148)

If the Red Sox win 100 games, I'll run around Toowoomba naked with my heavily pregnant wife on my shoulders.

At altitude, no less.

6. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)

Posted: August 13, 2007 at 12:00 PM (#2483172)

I was in CLE for the Fri and Sat games and Jhonny was awful.

Nice stadium, in case no one ever noticed. :) It was about 25% Yankees fans, 2 Philly fans (my son and me) and very nice Indians fans who are feeling pretty disillusioned about their team. No booing of their own though -- that felt strange.

7. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 12:09 PM (#2483177)

No booing of their own though -- that felt strange.

Not to get into another debate like the silliness of Bonds' HR, but they must have been saving that for after you left, because the booing was definitely audible on Sunday, espcially after that comical inning where the Indians managed to turn bases loaded nobody out into runner on second, two out, one run in in the course of 1 pitch.

8. TVerik, AKA Snoopy Snoopy Poop Dog Posted: August 13, 2007 at 12:12 PM (#2483182)

I'll run around Toowoomba naked with my heavily pregnant wife on my shoulders.

*yawn*

We call this Tuesday.

9. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken (Dewey is a slacker) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 12:17 PM (#2483186)

Would you still do that if they still finish second because the Yankees won 101 games?

Tip his cap, because that meant they went 35-11 down the stretch.

10. TerpNats Posted: August 13, 2007 at 02:01 PM (#2483256)

Unhappily for Yankees partisans, the same exercise shows the Red Sox finishing with a 100–62 record. More happily, it shows the Detroit Tigers ending the year at 88–74, with the California Angels grabbing the West title with a 92–70 record, and the Mariners ending up at 87–75.

Can't take such an outdated exercise seriously. California Angels?

11. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past

Posted: August 13, 2007 at 02:07 PM (#2483264)

8. TVerik Posted: August 13, 2007 at 09:12 AM (#2483182)

I'll run around Toowoomba naked with my heavily pregnant wife on my shoulders.

*yawn*

We call this Tuesday.

On The Deuce or ESPNNEWS?

12. Shibal Posted: August 13, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2483331)

Maybe I'm just in a pissy mood, but I sure am getting tired of reading all these articles citing BP's "third-tier" projections as something more than a toy.

13. Moneyball can't buy you love (Joey B.) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 03:43 PM (#2483351)

Boston may have a whole bunch of games against the Devil Rays left, but I guarantee you that every single member of Red Sox Nation is still freaking out right now.

They can hear and feel that dreaded pinstriped locomotive roaring down on them from behind, and we've all seen this story before.

14. Phil Coorey, You Won't Posted: August 14, 2007 at 03:42 AM (#2484046)

Boston may have a whole bunch of games against the Devil Rays left, but I guarantee you that every single member of Red Sox Nation is still freaking out right now.

Yankees won't lose another game this year it seems

15. Robert Machemer Posted: August 14, 2007 at 05:40 AM (#2484097)

Apparently I'm not a member of Red Sox Nation -- I'm not freaking out. Would I prefer the lead to be bigger? Of course. But the Yankees are playing, what, .800 ball? They could keep it up, they could complete the comeback, and the talent there is certainly impressive enough to do miraculous things, but the odds against them are still fairly large.

16. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken (Dewey is a slacker) Posted: August 14, 2007 at 05:46 AM (#2484098)

Apparently I'm not a member of Red Sox Nation -- I'm not freaking out. Would I prefer the lead to be bigger? Of course. But the Yankees are playing, what, .800 ball? They could keep it up, they could complete the comeback, and the talent there is certainly impressive enough to do miraculous things, but the odds against them are still fairly large.

The reason that there's panic is that the "miracle" part has already pretty much happened -- they made up over 10 games in just over 2 months on a team with the best record in baseball. If they make up 4 games the rest of the way that won't be a miracle. That happens all the time.

17. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 14, 2007 at 06:02 AM (#2484103)

Unhappily for Yankees partisans, the same exercise shows the Red Sox finishing with a 100–62 record.

Those exercises are wrong.

18. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken (Dewey is a slacker) Posted: August 14, 2007 at 02:58 PM (#2484314)

These aren’t, though, large margins, and a bad week could well knock the Yankees out of the hunt.

A bad week by Boston could also put the Yankees in first place.

Strength of schedule is overrated. You never expect to sweep or get swept in a series, so the difference between an easy schedule and a hard schedule is basically one game in a series. And that one game swings the other way a lot more often than strength of schedule would make you think.

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Monday, August 13, 2007

N.Y. Sun: Marchman: Yankees Face the Toughest Battle for Playoff Spot

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