It's a damning point; Randolph should not receive too much credit for getting these Hall of Fame-caliber talents to play well.

On the other hand, several other Hall of Fame-caliber talents are playing miserably, and in ways for which it's perfectly fair to blame the manager.

I loved this.

Guys are playing well: Don't credit the manager.

Guys are playing poorly: Discredit the manager.

The article is full of double-speak and as much as I enjoy Mets-related failures and controversy being a Phillies fan, this article is muck. He doesn't give any legitimate reasons why Randolph is to blame; he cites random statistics and then points his finger.

I loved how he realized "Correlation may not imply causation" then immediately went into correlation = causation mode.

Is Randolph the reason why Carlos Delgado is hitting so poorly? No, unless he goes over to Delgado's locker every day and pays him to take weak hacks in the game.

Randolph is no more responsible for Delgado's failures than Wright's successes.

A manager of no special mechanical cleverness, who doesn't help put runs on the board with his mastery of the nuts and bolts of calling signals, making out lineup cards, or calling for the right relief pitchers, who can't help players deal with these airier, more abstract concerns, is a nearly useless one. That's what Randolph has become.

Oh my God... evidence pl0x.

Mr. Marchman gettin' all feisty and...I dunno, wild-eyed? Is this a new development, or do we usually only get his thoughtful things posted here?

I did like the implication that the Cubs are true winners.

Well, he's pretty thoughtful in general, so maybe this is an outlier. I think there's a pretty strong case, even without bringing Beltran and Delgado into the discussion. Delgado is more of an indictment of the GM and ownership. imo.

They should fire him if his team sweeps the Arizona Diamondbacks this weekend.

Definitely.

Willie's just little out of touch, little insane
It's just easier than dealing with the pain

Randolph being kept on after a historic collapse only to be fired shortly afterwards is perfectly in keeping with historic perspective.

They should fire him if his team puts on such a display this weekend that the greater Phoenix area literally burns to the ground around them,

Yeah, everyone knows burning a phoenix accomplishes nothing.

The article is full of double-speak

I really don't see it that way at all. Tim is saying that if it is a given that Willie isn't strong when it comes to lineups, or reliever usage, why is he the manager? The only thing one can come up with is motivation. And when it comes to measuring that motivation in terms of player effectiveness, no one is playing above his head, and even the top talents on the Mets are not all performing.

Mr. Marchman gettin' all feisty and...I dunno, wild-eyed? Is this a new development, or do we usually only get his thoughtful things posted here?

He is generally thoughtful... that he feels this way is very telling.

kept on after a historic collapse only to be fired shortly afterwards

In Texas we are now calling this the "Avery Johnson principle."

In Texas we are now calling this the "Avery Johnson principle."

Heh. IYO, should they have fired him? He's being touted by some here for the Bulls job.

What "Hall of Fame-caliber talents" are playing miserably? Beltran isn't slugging, granted, but I'm wondering whom else he considers "Hall of Fame-caliber talents," especially when he says "several."

I guess it all depends on how highly you think of Jose Reyes. He's an exciting player but sometimes I wonder if he's overrated and playing in the wrong era. Maybe Delgado's talent could be HoF-level but does anyone thinks he should be seriously considered when his playing days are over?

EDIT: RTFA and answered my own question.

Also, is Ryan Church really playing better than expected? Or is that only because many Mets' fans expectations were so low because he's not Lastings?

I guess it all depends on how highly you think of Jose Reyes. He's an exciting player but sometimes I wonder if he's overrated and playing in the wrong era.

Most of the 2006-2007 hype around Reyes was based on his increased selectivity and power at the age of 23. You could have easily projected him as a SS who hits .300/.375/.525 with 25 HRs and 75 steals. That's a HOF talent.

Unfortunately for Metsville, the 2006 power spike looks illusory, and he seems to be more of a 15 HR guy. 60 EXB for a dude with his kind of speed and projected power in 750 PA is fairly lame.

Similarly, the BB rate decreased substantially in the 2nd half of last year, with only 30 UIBB in his last 396 PA. And although the last few games show promise, he has 8 UIBB in 116 PA - or roughly the same UIBB rate of Pedro Feliz.

On top of that, he has 13 SB and 9 CS in his last 50+ games.

He's still a good player, but maybe he's a better version of Gary Templeton instead of a once-in-a-generation player.

One recurring issue with Randolph is that he assigns bullpen roles, and then takes an inordinate amount of time to reassign roles based upon actual results/effectiveness/ineffectiveness- in fact he often does not mix up his bullpen usage until injury or GM intervention changes his available options for him.

The bets way to describe it is he decides that A is his closer, B his set up guy, C his loogy and D his long man...

and no matter what happens he does not reassess those roles- only the DL or demotion (or release) will force him to swap roles, move someone out/ someone new in. There is something to be said for determining that A is better than B, and then sticking with A when things go poorly initially, but

Willie takes it to the extreme wrt bullpen
and Willie's initial snap judgment calls (the ones he is so loathe to change) are often extremely suspect. Willie's first year, 2005, te Mets broke camp with a few bozos in the Pen who simply had no business being on the 25 man roster. WHY? Becasue Willie, being unfamiliar with most of his options chose the people he thought threw the best in ST. As a result he picked a couple of guys who had never pitched well in the MLB, hadn't piched well in the high minors in recent years, and weren't all that effective in ST, but Willie liked how they threw- and he used them until Omar took them away by demotion or outright release.

My favorite Willie interview of that year was towards the end, when asked why he continued to employ the increasingly ineffective Braden Looper as closer (who turned out to have been hurt much of the year) the question sincerely baffled him, a brief look of incomprehension crossed his face, and then he said something like, Looper deserves to close, he has the most saves.

Unfortunately for Metsville, the 2006 power spike looks illusory, and he seems to be more of a 15 HR guy.

I could've sworn it was assumed as truth around here that 2006 was Reyes's floor and he was only going to get better in 2007 and beyond. Christian Guzman comps be damned.

I sometimes think I was the only person around here who was saying that Reyes was an illusion, a one-year fluke disguising an otherwise decent - but not star quality - player. But it's easy to understand why Mets fans (and many of the rest of us in fact) wanted to believe. Superficially it looked like he was taking the textbook example of "the leap."

His batting components have been pretty consitent with the exception of his 10.6% HR/FB rate in 2006. Does anyone really think Reyes can come anywhere near that as his base level? Last year it was 5.5%; this year 6.8%. Considering his IF/F% the last two years have been 11.8% and 13.4%, it seems like he's trying to jack em, just unsuccessfully.

Speaking of Cristian Guzman, it seems that he might not be nearly as bad as once thought. The legendary awfulness of his 2005 notwithstanding, it seems that once he got his vision corrected via lasik surgery (this being the problem in '05 apparently), he's put up more respectable numbers. Injuries make it difficult to say for sure, but over his last 297AB he's put up a line of .311/.349/.449. Not world-beating by any means, but not a disaster either. Still a bad contract, though.

I sometimes think I was the only person around here who was saying that Reyes was an illusion, a one-year fluke disguising an otherwise decent - but not star quality - player

I suppose it depends on what you think a star quality player is. I still think he is one of the top 5 SS in baseball; is that a star? He was 5th in VORP among SS last year, and he was within 1 run of Renteria and 7 of Jeter in VORP; I certainly think he has the defensive edge to pass those 2 guys. He was 4th in 06, and within 8 runs of Tejada and Guillen; he probably was able to pass at least one of them, if not both. And to be honest, he was 22 runs behind Jeter, it's entirely possible he was that much better on defense but lets say he wasn't for the sake of the argument.
So thats the last 2 years where I think he has been a top 3 SS in baseball, and he hasn't turned 25 yet. That seems like a star to me.

When he was coming up, I figured the kind of season he had in 06 was towards the top of his spectrum; so obviously the fact that he had it in a season where he didn't turn 23 till the middle of June made me re-think what he was capable of. That shouldn't come as a shock.

When he was coming up, I figured the kind of season he had in 06 was towards the top of his spectrum; so obviously the fact that he had it in a season where he didn't turn 23 till the middle of June made me re-think what he was capable of. That shouldn't come as a shock.

Given that he's not yet 25, I'm pretty sure conclusions on what Reyes' peak was are a bit premature.

I sometimes think I was the only person around here who was saying that Reyes was an illusion, a one-year fluke disguising an otherwise decent - but not star quality - player.

I recall using the words "Miguel" and "Dilone", but was told that wasn't what was happening. Still might not be, I admit.

I sometimes think I was the only person around here who was saying that he was an illusion, a one-year fluke disguising an otherwise decent - but not star quality - player.

The season and the career is still early. I wouldn't give up on Ryan Zimmerman's potential yet.

The season and the career is still early. I wouldn't give up on Ryan Zimmerman's potential yet.

I don't think Zimmerman was ever discussed as the best player in the league/HOF potential. He is also almost 2 full years younger than Reyes.

Edit: Not quite 2 years; more like 1 year 3 months. Idiot

I don't think Zimmerman was ever discussed as the best player in the league/HOF potential. He is also almost 2 full years younger than Reyes.

Might it be fair to say it is too early on both, then?

Seriously, people- Reyes is not even 25 years old yet. You can't seriously be ready to make conclusions on what his peak is.

The change in Reyes' selectivity from 2005 to 2006 to 2007 was incredible. I don't think I've ever seen a player consciously change their approach so drastically and with such success. He has gone backwards from there, badly, but there is nothing about Reyes' past that screams fluke to me. He is 24 years old and has a lot of career in front of him: I don't think that he has done anything in the past that he will not be able to match in the next, what, 8 years he has as a prime player?

At the same age Jimmy Rollins had a career SLG south of .400 and was about to put up his first season with an OPS+ over 100.

When you look at other great speedy hitters (Alomar, Lofton, Biggio, Rickey, Raines, Larkin), a homerun spike around age 26-28 is almost universal. It's not yet time to sound the knell for Reyes' power potential. In 6 years his hitting numbers could look like anything: they might look like Brett Butler, they might look like Robby Alomar, they might look like Gary Templeton, they might look like Raul Mondesi.

The change in Reyes' selectivity from 2005 to 2006 to 2007 was incredible. I don't think I've ever seen a player consciously change their approach so drastically and with such success.

See "Sosa, Sammy".

It's time to fire Willie because even if you don't believe in any of the "he doesn't get the best out of his players" stuff, he still continues to bat Castillo second, and he completely mismanages the bullpen. There's a reason that the bullpen completely collapsed at the end of last season, and that reason is the abuse Willie gives it over the course of a season. It's as if he thinks you need to use every reliever every ####### game. Does he not realize that by trotting a new pitcher out for every insignificant at-bat, he tires them out and makes them less effective over the course of the season?

Reyes has a .267 BABIP and a 23.3 LD%. Give him a normal BABIP of about .300 and he has an .800 OPS. Let's wait until the end of the season before we start calling him a Gary Templeton, part II.

The change in Reyes' selectivity from 2005 to 2006 to 2007 was incredible. I don't think I've ever seen a player consciously change their approach so drastically and with such success.

See "Sosa, Sammy".

Sammy didn't change his approach all that much- pitchers learned to really really really fear him, once that fear wore off...
1: His k rate held pretty constant per PA
2: if you remove the IBBs from 2000-2002 his increase in walks doesn't look nearly so impressive

Reyes' K/uiBB
78/27
81/47
78/64

Sammy from 1997:
174/36
171/59
171/69
168/72
155/79
144/89
143/53
133/52

Frank Howard 1967-1970:
155/43
141/42
96/83
125/103

Now that's improvement- 2 things happened in Hondo's case
1: The strike Zone was shrunk from 1968 to 1969 (and mounds were lowered)
2: Manager Ted Williams took a special interest in his hitting

Let's wait until the end of the season before we start calling him a Gary Templeton, part II.

Templeton never showed any improvement in his selectivity/batting eye
Batting 8th at the end of his year he was picking up 10-20 intentional walks per year- take them away and you see that from start to finish he was always drawing just 20-30 walks with 3+K per walk

Sammy didn't change his approach all that much- pitchers learned to really really really fear him

In 1997, Sosa hit 36 homers with 45 walks.

In the first two months of 1998, he his 13 homers and had 27 walks. In June, he hit 20 homers and became a great slugger, but the walks predated the power surge.

Injuries make it difficult to say for sure, but over his last 297AB [Guzman's] put up a line of .311/.349/.449. Not world-beating by any means, but not a disaster either. Still a bad contract, though.

He's getting what, 4/$16? If he hits that the rest of this year, it'll have been a good contract.

He's getting what, 4/$16? If he hits that the rest of this year, it'll have been a good contract.

Not if he's as bad defensively as UZR, PMR, and Dewan rate him.

Guys are playing well: Don't credit the manager.

Guys are playing poorly: Discredit the manager.

The best managers I've worked for have stepped aside, taken care of all the crap that goes on at any workplace, and lets their people do their jobs. Result? Excellence.

The worst managers get all of this wrong, and you end up with a dysfunctional workplace, and all the talent in the world won't help.

So I agree.

Unfortunately for Metsville, the 2006 power spike looks illusory, and he seems to be more of a 15 HR guy. 60 EXB for a dude with his kind of speed and projected power in 750 PA is fairly lame.

Just to point out how ridiculously early this statement is, Reyes went 4-5 today with a double and 2 triples, raising his batting line to .275/.328/.477 on the season.

You don't have to be high on Reyes but don't base it on a mediocre April. It's just way too small a sample.

And, both of those triples were off of the wall. One missed a homerun by about 6 feet. The other hit the 407 sign in center.

reyes PWN3D this thread

BTW, this is my favorite Jose Reyes comparison:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/molitpa01.shtml