|
|
|
|
Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Everything’s Coming Our Way!
At a stroke, then, the Mets have regained their promise as the team of tomorrow, addressed their greatest weakness, and showed up the Yankees, all at a reasonable price; there must be a catch, no? Of course there must be, and here it’s the phrase “four prospects.”
Surely had you told Minaya, or any Mets fan, at the outset of these negotiations that he would only have to give up outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Delois Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey, he would have performed incredible athletic feats and kissed you. Gomez, while greatly talented, has more chance of being a fourth outfielder than he does of being an All-Star. Humber and Mulvey are right-handers without great stuff, likely back-end starters at best. And while Guerra pitched in High-A ball at 17 last year, he has long odds of ever making the majors at all, like any pitcher so young.
The Twins have specific ideas about what sorts of players they like, and there is a real chance all these players will thrive. Even if they perform up to their talent, though, the Mets really won’t miss them in end. Rich teams can always find a good outfielder or a passable back-end starter. Guerra might really haunt the Mets, but you have to give up something for Santana; far better to give up three pitching prospects rather than one real hitting prodigy such as Fernando Martinez, the Mets’ one true blue-chip prospect.
Repoz
Posted: January 30, 2008 at 01:07 AM | 24 comment(s)
Related News: General, NY Mets
|
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
That said, Minaya now has to show the ability to build a barren farm system. He has 3 of the first 34 picks in the upcoming draft. He needs to make them count.
I'm echoing a very common sentiment here, but I don't get how you can trade Johan Santana -- even if it's just one year and exclusive negotiating rights, this is Johan Santana we're talking about -- and not get back somebody's best prospect.
I agree. I think that the solution to fixing the deal is not to exclude FMart, but to keep taking people out of the deal until the Mets agree. Would they do FMart, Guerra and Mulvey? Would they do just FMart and Guerra? Maybe even do they just do FMart? Minaya may have broken down at some point and then the Twins would have still gotten the highest upside player in the deal (and I assume that people would be happy).
FMart has a higher upside than Santana?
It depends, you know. I'm sure the Twins could've had JR Towles if they wanted. OTOH, there's no way in hell they could've gotten Justin Upton (say he was still a prospect) or Jay Bruce or Colby Rasmus (just throwing names out there).
It appears Smith wanted to trade Santana to the NL, and he was forced to trade him to a team that could pay Santana bolus of cash over the next 6-7 years. That ties one of his hands behind his back, you know, especially since there really was only one NL team that wanted to dance.
Not to be crass here, but Omar does end up scoring Santana like the fat girl at the prom gets to sleep with the prom king--she was the only one willing to put out and do the unmentionables the prom king wanted... and the prom king happened to be like Mark Grace and just liked fat chicks...
Also, Pohlad's a very very very very very very very cheap rich man.
That's a bit oversimplified. If you look at the real price the Mets are paying, it's actually quite high -- it's just not all going to the Twins in the form of talent, because they don't own the full value of the commodity they are selling. Santana himself owns most of it, and so he's getting about $150M of the the value (or whatever the contract ends up being). The Twins are getting only a fraction of the value, because it's all they had to sell. Which is fortunate for the Mets, and Minaya, because if more of Santana's value had needed to paid in the form of talent, they wouldn't have been able to afford the price tag. Dollars . . . that they have.
GS W-L IP H BB SO ERA
Mets 32 16-8 225.0 184 60 239 2.94
The Twins are getting only a fraction of the value, because it's all they had to sell.
I think this is the key to the situation. The Twins didn't have much to trade. One year of Johan at $7-10M below market value.
Since Johan had the NTC, he was going to get full market value in any extension, so all the bidding teams get is first chance to negotiate. He also was able to limit the bidding to 3 or 4 teams he wanted to go to.
Therefore, the Twins were going to get much less than the A's did for Haren, for example.
The Yanks, Sox, or Mets would have been morons to give up their best prospects.
Let us review: the trade was Santana, under contract for one year; Johan had a complete no-trade; there was never a chance that TWINT was going to resign him. So to a suitor, they basically just had to beat the two draft picks that TWINT would have received for keeping Johan a year and letting him walk.
Why not the Sox/Yankees? We don't know, but I suspect it's 90% no-trade clause and 10% Smith wanting a better deal. Who had all the leverage here? Santana did. The rumors were that he wanted to go East (ok) and to the NL (uh ...).
I'm not happy about it, but I don't think that you can lay the blame for this one at Smith's feet. Had keeping Johan ever been on the table, the return would have been much greater -- ideally, they wouldn't have ####### traded him at all.
Not a good day to be a TWINT fan.
A question: did the Twins ever consider giving Santana what he wanted, and replacing Morneau + Cuddyer with minimum wage filler?
Well, there is also value for the Twins in keeping Johan for one more below market season but I agree with your larger point.
The problem is that Minn has young SP with upside (Liriano/Baker/Bonser/Slowey etc.) and no young position players. They probably (rightly IMHO) view Santana as much more risky than Morneau/Cuddyer, and more expensive.
The Twins came up with a fair offer. If Santana had wanted to stay in Minnesota the newspapers would have been reporting on the extension Santana signed with the Twins rather than the trade. It isn't about Pohlad being cheap. Johan had a complete no-trade clause and wanted to play for, and get paid by, the Mets or Yankees. All the Mets had to do was beat 2 draft picks and a season of Johan once the Yankees backed off. I think they beat 2 draft picks and one season of Johan with this trade, barely.
Sam M said that most of the value in this deal goes to Santana; he was absolutely correct.
That can't be right, TF. Santana playing for the Twins in 2008 has value. A lot of value. Maybe not Hughes and Melky and Kennedy and _________ value, but it has value--rather more than two drafts picks.
Delmon? Also, Mauer?
Liriano has injury issues, and how many of Baker/Bonser/Slowey/Humber/Mulvey/Guerra project to be a Santana / Liriano type?
Also, it's not as if Morneau and Cuddyer don't have risks.
Cuddyer suffered a dramatic decline in power last year: a 71 point drop in SLG, HR / F from 15.9% to 10.7%, on contact SLG from 658 to 539. Both UZR and plus minus think his D is bad, both had him among the worst at his position. His numbers in the minors are good, maybe he was injured or something in 2007. But, if he is a 110 OPS+ corner OF with bad D, that's fairly easily replaceable.
MARCEL, and even the usually optimistic Bill James, does not project a return to 2006 levels, just a slight rebound, from around 5.45 runs created / 27 to around 5.65 RC / 27. He was at 6.82 RC / 27 in 2006. CHONE projects a regression from 2007. ZIPS also projects a regression from 2007.
Morneau also declined. A 140 OPS+ to a 121 OPS+. Big drop in his LD rate, from 23% to 15%, big drop in BABIP from 328 to 270. Except for 2006, his BABIPs have been fairly low, typically in the 270s . If he doesn't rebound to his 2006 level, and is a 120 OPS+ 1b / DH, that's nothing special.
James, CHONE both project a rebound for Morneau, from 5.79 RC / 27 to around 6.6. Marcel a rebound to 6.22. He was at 7.9 RC / 27 in 2006. ZIPS also projects a rebound of about 40 points in OPS. Still not 2006 levels.
Looks like they all project a rebound to around a 130 OPS+. For $80M, a 1b / DH who is not an FA, 3 years of service time according to COTs.
Exactly. Or else Santana said "If the Twins are offering me that much, the Mets would be willing to pay even more." That Twins offer would have been second only to ARod's deal in annual value. Santana is probably fine being the second best paid player in the game, and the Twins would have apparently been happy to make him that....but he wanted to be closer to ARod's price than the Twins wanted him to be. And he limited who he would be traded too...and apparently he limited when the deal would be done. It was Santana's choice to make, and I think he's the one who made it. The Twins got whatever they got and there's enough talent there that it could be a decent move.
Liriano has injury issues, and how many of Baker/Bonser/Slowey/Humber/Mulvey/Guerra project to be a Santana / Liriano type?
I meant young position players to fill in for Morneau and Cuddyer. They're already counting on Mauer and Young.
They need Liriano to be healthy. If he is they don't need the others to be a Santana/Liriano type, plenty of teams have won w/o any of those, much less two. They need those six guys to generate 1 above average SP and 2 average SP.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main