Ya'know, Ryan Theriot gets more gushing praise from this community than one would expect for a guy whose defense is just ok and who slugged .346 (if that's really the right word to use to describe that type of output). And who was 27 years old last year, not 20 like say a Mike Caruso. Theriot is certainly preferable to having nobody play shortstop but he ain't Don Kessinger.

But hey, this observation just makes me a crusty old Brewer fan a bit weary of the Cubs coronation.

or been launched into space on spindizzies

Spindizzies! What a great word. I am totally stealing that.

Don't sweat it, Harv. As an honorary Pirates fan this year, how do you think I feel?

But hey, this observation just makes me a crusty old Brewer fan a bit weary of the Cubs coronation.

I doubt it, the Cubs fans here feel the same way.

a cartoon hook
If that's an original, that's a nifty phrase that Marchman came up with. I can see the Gashouse Gorillas whiffing now.

A "cartoon hook"? Is that like the kind that Wile E. Coyote hangs off a cliff to try to catch the Roadrunner, but instead he snags a semi and is slammed into a cliff as it enters a tunnel?

And I think Theriot is actually kind of a lot like Kessinger. Repoz enjoys ranting about Bobby Richardson's spot in the lineup, but Kess was also a first-inning killer (career OPS+: a representative 73). Perhaps Theriot lacks Kess's athleticism, but he's doing the job with similar results.

Doc:

Kessinger was MUCH better defensively. As for his offense, I think it's more impressive to do what Don did in his time than Ryan's meager contribution in a situation that favors offense.

Throughout his career, Lou Piniella has generally done a pretty bad job choosing his lead off hitters. Oh, if you give him Ichiro, he'll use Ichiro, but otherwise he runs into problems putting low-OBP guys at the top of the order.

But hey, this observation just makes me a crusty old Brewer fan a bit weary of the Cubs coronation.

Well, if it makes you feel better, this article argues that the Cubs will blow it.

There is no middle ground about Ryan Theriot from Cubs fans. Half think that he's an exciting, speedy player with room to develop; the other half have an acquaintance with facts. He's actually older than Cesar Izturis - true story!

Throughout his career, Lou Piniella has generally done a pretty bad job choosing his lead off hitters. Oh, if you give him Ichiro, he'll use Ichiro, but otherwise he runs into problems putting low-OBP guys at the top of the order.

And of course, this sort of approach is not limited to the Cubs.

There is no middle ground about Ryan Theriot from Cubs fans. Half think that he's an exciting, speedy player with room to develop; the other half have an acquaintance with facts. He's actually older than Cesar Izturis - true story!

Personally I think his age is a good thing. It means that he's probably around his peak. I'm glad not to have been subjected to Theriot in his developmental phase, and I'd rather not see him in decline either. At his peak, at least he's something approximating a major league talent.

He deserves a ring as much as anyone in the sport, as does manager Lou Piniella

Lou certainly does deserve a ring.

Personally I think his age is a good thing. It means that he's probably around his peak. I'm glad not to have been subjected to Theriot in his developmental phase, and I'd rather not see him in decline either. At his peak, at least he's something approximating a major league talent.

Yeah, but it gets to be frustrating when people start to argue that he's young and will improve. He's not young, and the aging curve is pretty much flat between 27 and 29. WYSIWYG, and what I saw was pretty damn bad.

I'm nothing like a Theriot fan, but I'm withholding judgment for at least few weeks this season in hopes that batting lead-off might change his approach at the plate. If he can take a few more walks and boost that OBP over .350 while stealing 30+ bases at a good rate and playing tolerable defense, he won't be hurting the team any.

And of course, this sort of approach is not limited to the Cubs.

To clarify, Lou Piniella is historically bad at it. One of the worst in the last half-century.

I downloaded bleeploads of splits from b-ref last year - including offensive splits for batting order for all teams. One think I did with it -- take the OBP from the #1 slot in the order and divide by team OBP. Merely having a low or high OBP in the #1 hole might be a sign of overall offensive quality, but all teams can conceivably have better (or worse) OBP from their #1 slot.

Of the 1,270 teams from 1957-2007, the team that fared the worst by this exercise was a Lou Piniella team. Added bonus, the team that faired 2nd worst was also a Lou Piniella team. And those squads (the 1994 and 1999 Mariners, IIRC) didn't have the same lead-off hitter even. I think Piniella's a terrific manager, but he likes putting Rich Amaral, Brian Hunter & Ryan Theriot in the lead-off slot.

I'm nothing like a Theriot fan, but I'm withholding judgment for at least few weeks this season in hopes that batting lead-off might change his approach at the plate.

Ryan Theriot took walks, certainly not as well as Adam Dunn but he took walks. His 0.082 walks per plate appearance rate is not the problem.

But it's incredibly difficult to learn anything about a ballplayer in a few weeks of playing time. If Theriot performs well over the first few weeks of the season, it could mean that he's playing better, but there's a much better chance it's simply an effect of sampling.

And if you look at park effect, a .350 OBP out of Theriot would really be just about league average; Theriot played in a hitter's park, inflating his numbers. He's not even as good as his AVG/OBP/SLG would lead you to believe, and those numbers are an absolute horrorshow.

They haven't won the WS in 100 years, but inept is a bit strong.

I'd wager they haven't been inept in at least 10% of those seasons.

Kessinger was MUCH better defensively. As for his offense, I think it's more impressive to do what Don did in his time than Ryan's meager contribution in a situation that favors offense.

Agree about the D, of course. And Kess was a slightly better hitter in his prime. But he wasn't much good, and some years he could definitely give you 600 PAs of putridity. And don't forget, back in the early '70s Wrigley played wildly hitterly, and Kess struggled to get 20 doubles.

Doc:

I am pretty comfortable believing that in the same place at the same time Kessinger would outplay Theriot by a noticeable margin. Such that if they were on the same team no manager, nor cadre of fans would be advocating that Theriot have the starting role.

Theriot benefits from being better the previous guy, the team winning, demonstrating obvious hustle, being surehanded and the talent around him minimizing the impact of his shortcomings.

Theriot Facts:

2048 minor league at bats
5 home runs
.337 slugging percentage

Of the 1,270 teams from 1957-2007, the team that fared the worst by this exercise was a Lou Piniella team. Added bonus, the team that faired 2nd worst was also a Lou Piniella team. And those squads (the 1994 and 1999 Mariners, IIRC) didn't have the same lead-off hitter even. I think Piniella's a terrific manager, but he likes putting Rich Amaral, Brian Hunter & Ryan Theriot in the lead-off slot.

I guess I'm not finding this terribly convincing. I look at the rosters of those teams, and you have to ask who the leadoff hitter would be if it weren't the guys Piniella used.

In 1994, he tried anyone and everyone and got a horrible .270 OBP out of the leadoff spot. But who should have had that spot? He gave Rich Amaral the most PAs (155) and he posted the best mark: .322. Careerwise Amaral wasn't a terrible on base guy (career OBP of .344, 8.7 PA/BB). Two years later the Mariners got a .367 OBP out of the leadoff spot (mostly Cora, Amaral, Bragg), and in all of the years between 1994 and 1999 the Mariners got decent OBPs out of that spot in the lineup.

In 1999, no longer equipped with Joey Cora (who actually did a decent job as leadoff man for the Mariners), Piniella insisted on playing Brian Hunter in the leadoff spot and got a horrible .279 OBP out of it. But again, what were the alternatives? That team, like most Mariners teams of the time, had a lot of big sluggers in the lineup. Sure, Hunter was particularly bad, but the alternatives would have definitely represented thinking outside the box. In 2000, the Mariners were back to being decent in the leadoff spot, sporting a .347 OBP with Rickey Henderson, Mark McLemore, Mike Cameron and Stan Javier getting most of the calls.

Now, I'm not claiming that Piniella handled this well -- anyone who continued to write Hunter's name in the leadoff spot that many times was definitely making the wrong decision -- but I don't think it's as bad as it looks.

If Theriot puts up an OBP in the .270s, and he just might, it's going to come with a low BA. Piniella isn't going to stick with that in the leadoff spot. Well, if he does, it will be due to much broader, more serious problems.

If Theriot puts up an OBP in the .270s, and he just might, it's going to come with a low BA. Piniella isn't going to stick with that in the leadoff spot.

A classic case of Cub Fan Stockholm Syndrome. That's the sort of screwup that Lou seems bound and determined to make. I find it amazing that Cubs fans seem to be in utter denial of what Lou thinks of Ryan Theriot.

I am pretty comfortable believing that in the same place at the same time Kessinger would outplay Theriot by a noticeable margin.

Agreed, except about the "noticeable" part. You overrate Kess. One post-'68 year he hit 18 doubles in almost 700 PA with home park factor of 113. And that was in an perfectly typical overall year for him. The Kess of '69 was atypical, and I humbly suggest might be the one of fond memory.

Don't forget The Riot's best attribute: league minimum salary

They haven't won the WS in 100 years, but inept is a bit strong.

I'd wager they haven't been inept in at least 10% of those seasons.

Depends on what the cutoff for inept is:

7 pennants, 4 other first place finishes, 1 other playoff appearance, 7 other 90 win seasons, 23 other winning seasons, 2 other .500 seasons...

That's 45 (45%) of seasons since 1908 that I wouldn't call inept.

Doc:

You keep focussing on the offense. Kessinger was a MUCH better shortstop. Theriot, quite frankly, is below average. If he didn't have good hands he would be Felipe Lopez.

Any fan who saw the two men play would notice this pretty quickly. It's a chasm as wide as Dmitri Young's *ss.................

Theriot benefits from being better the previous guy, the team winning, demonstrating obvious hustle, being surehanded and the talent around him minimizing the impact of his shortcomings.

Every team, even championship teams, have a guy or two like this. Combine this with BLB's point about his salary and the fact the Kessinger is like 70 years old, and I can live with Theriot.

A dramatic story that reads more like a script proposal than an opinion or news piece. Marchman is a Conrad Black political writer.

That's 45 (45%) of seasons since 1908 that I wouldn't call inept.

I would agree with this. It ticks me off when people just randomly toss off quotes like "a century of ineptitude" as if anything short of winning the WS is inept. If that's the case, the Braves were largely inept during the '90s.

I'll be the first to admit that the Cubs *were* inept in the 50s, and most of the 60's, 70's, 80s, and 90s. Still, there were some notable stretches where they were far from inept and were legitimate contenders.

17. A Surfeit of Peaches Graham (SdeB) Posted: March 24, 2008 at 11:20 AM (#2718405)

Very well said.

To quote one of Harvey's points in support of Jeter, its always good to have a heady defensive player in the middle of the diamond.

I trolled THT and other sites for defensive stats, but their delivery is pretty lame, in addition to the stats themselves being spotty at best, so I didn't manage to come up with any kind of conclusion about them. Theriot doesn't do bad by them, at worst below average. Which is what Harvey said.

A classic case of Cub Fan Stockholm Syndrome. That's the sort of screwup that Lou seems bound and determined to make. I find it amazing that Cubs fans seem to be in utter denial of what Lou thinks of Ryan Theriot.

What do you call the Syndrome where someone tends to make assumptions about what someone else thinks, with absolutely no basis in fact for those assumptions?

If Lou sticks with someone in the leadoff spot hitting .212 or so, and that's what it would take for Theriot to put up a .275 OBP given his BB rate, then I repeat: it will reflect a much broader, much worse sort of problem. As in, Alfonso Soriano not being available, or something like that.

BTW, Lou announced today - Kerry Wood is closer, Dempster and Marquis in rotation, Lieber in the pen.

If Lou sticks with someone in the leadoff spot hitting .212 or so, and that's what it would take for Theriot to put up a .275 OBP given his BB rate, then I repeat: it will reflect a much broader, much worse sort of problem. As in, Alfonso Soriano not being available, or something like that.

What if he hits .266 with an OBP of .326? I've seen it happen, and it obviously didn't make much of an impression on Lou.

BTW, Lou announced today - Kerry Wood is closer, Dempster and Marquis in rotation, Lieber in the pen.

I don't know that I care for Lieber in the pen; the Cubs have about 50 hard-throwing righties out there. I suppose if/when one of Dempster/Marquis craps out, Lieber'll step in easily enough.

Or when Wood gets hurt on April 8, Dempster could go back to the pen and Lieber'll go to the rotation. Either way, I have little fear this'll be a permanent arrangement.

What if he hits .266 with an OBP of .326? I've seen it happen, and it obviously didn't make much of an impression on Lou.

So clearly, a performance 50 OBP points worse would definitely not make such an impression. Gotcha. Look, I agree putting Theriot in the leadoff slot's silly and should've been contraindicated by his '07 numbers specifically, and I agree Piniella's got a blindspot with regard to Theriot, but I don't think there's any reason to think his blind spot's THAT big, which is what you're suggesting.

So clearly, a performance 50 OBP points worse would definitely not make such an impression. Gotcha. Look, I agree putting Theriot in the leadoff slot's silly and should've been contraindicated by his '07 numbers specifically, and I agree Piniella's got a blindspot with regard to Theriot, but I don't think there's any reason to think his blind spot's THAT big, which is what you're suggesting.

No, I'm just suggesting that you can be a bad hitter and still have an OBP above .275. He took my point - that Theriot is a liability, and that Lou doesn't seem to realize this - and responded that if Theriot hits like a backup catcher he'll get benched.

Lets wait until Lou actually bats Theriot leadoff for 100 games with a subpar OBP before you authoritatively claim to know what Lou thinks. Lots of managers talk up players in spring training to build up their confidence. Its his job to be a leader more than it is to fill out a APBA lineup card.

.326 would be not good, but I don't think leadoff hitters hit all that great, overall. .360+ guys usually hit in the middle of the order. OTOH I have no idea why DeRosa isn't just Sharpied in as leadoff all year.

The average leadoff man in the NL last season hit .277/.341/.427. Average #2 hit .277/.339/.422, so pretty similar. Theriot hit .266/.326/.346 last season, and did most of his hitting in the #2 hole.

I'd also like to point out that Wrigley is a hitter's park, so his offensive numbers are inflated compared to the league-average.

Agreed--I have no idea why a team signs a player to a three year deal, watches that player put up a well-above-average-for-his-position season in the first year of that deal, and then decides they don't like him, but that seems to be what's happening with DeRosa. I would also hit him leadoff, and Theriot eighth, but Theriot's not so horrible that I'm writing my congressman over it. And if Theriot hits .290 to .300 by some fluke, which isn't completely outlandish, his walk rate would make him a more than passable leadoff man.

38:

What was Wrigley's park factor last year? (Not disagreeing with your broader point re. Theriot, but I wonder if Wrigley has that much benefit for a hitter like Theriot, who has no power anyway.)

What if he hits .266 with an OBP of .326? I've seen it happen, and it obviously didn't make much of an impression on Lou.

You seem to have lost sight of what was being argued.

I think something to consider is that as Theriot gets more time in the league and pitchers find out how little power he has they will start challenging him even more. Which will be reflected in a lower walk rate.

It's possible he can adjust but there is a reason your better on-base percentages are held by guys who can pop one out of the park. Pitchers with little to fear are going to come after you at the plate.

And no, Theriot really hasn't been around that long. This season will be a critical time for Ryan in his career. He could be Ivan DeJesus circa 1978 for a few years or he could be Ivan circa 1981.

he could be Ivan circa 1981
You mean good enough to be traded for a future Hall Of Famer? :)

Still sticks in the old craw. The Phils had Sandberg, Franco and Samuel in the minors and they kept Samuel.

Still sticks in the old craw. The Phils had Sandberg, Franco and Samuel in the minors and they kept Samuel.

Yeah--but they cashed Sandberg and Franco in for DeJesus AND Von Hayes!

Thanks, #38, that's what I was wondering but I don't have the B-R fu to back it up. Really, it's the .346 vs. .427 SA where he really shows his weakness as a hitter.

What was Wrigley's park factor last year? (Not disagreeing with your broader point re. Theriot, but I wonder if Wrigley has that much benefit for a hitter like Theriot, who has no power anyway.)

Cub Hitters, Home & Road OBP & SLG:

Home .344/.439
Road .322/.404

Cubs Pitches Home & Road OOBP & OSLG:

Home .327/.408
Road .317/.388

Bigger change in SLG, but that's always the case. SLG numbers are more flexible than OBP across baseball -- that's one reason an increase in 1 point OBP is seen as equal to 2-3 (or however) many points SLG.

& last but not least - The Riot's H/R OBP & SLG

Home .340/.389
Road .311/.298

To be fair, looking just at ISO. it's Home ISO 91, Road ISO 68. It helps him.

Conclusion . . .I got so caught up looking up data, I kinda lost track of the point.

Carry on.