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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

N.Y. Sun: Marchman: All Hope Is Not Lost on Melky Cabrera

Andromedia straining to find value in the Melky way?

Horrified as the world might be by Cabrera’s lousy play, though, if he were a stock I’d buy as much as I could afford. You have to trust fundamentals, and even after the last few months his are still shockingly good.

First, as manager Joe Girardi noted Friday, “You cannot forget how young Melky is.” Four years into his career, Cabrera’s date of birth is still arguably the single most important thing about him. The second most important thing about him is that he showed he could play well at a very young age; it’s difficult to overestimate how strong a predictor of eventual stardom that is. The third most important thing is that he’s a center fielder, and not just in name. Whatever terrors he visited upon spectators while hitting, Cabrera notably improved in the field this year, something the better defensive statistics picked up. The Fielding Bible’s plus/minus system, for instance, credits him as having been 10 plays better than an average center fielder this year.

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2008 at 12:04 AM | 19 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralNY Yankees

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   1. Rich Posted: August 20, 2008 at 12:53 AM (#2909750)
It's almost as if he has been influenced by Cano's approach at the plate, which is problematic given that he isn't nearly as talented.
   2. cult of basebaal Posted: August 20, 2008 at 01:27 AM (#2909770)
repoz would say it's because he's been influenced by cano's approach at the bottle, mug and glass ...
   3. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: August 20, 2008 at 01:28 AM (#2909772)
Could he pitch? He has a great arm!
   4. Dan Posted: August 20, 2008 at 01:31 AM (#2909775)
he Fielding Bible’s plus/minus system, for instance, credits him as having been 10 plays better than an average center fielder this year.

However the same metric had him at -21 plays last season in CF.
   5. I lost my thrill on Glenallen Hill Posted: August 20, 2008 at 02:26 AM (#2909808)
Melky, Kennedy and Giambi for Pujols! And Russ Springer!
   6. tjm1 Posted: August 20, 2008 at 04:03 AM (#2909827)
He said in the article that Beltran got sent to rookie ball the year he turned 24. Wasn't that an injury rehab? Or am I remembering wrong?
   7. NJ in DC loathes his classmates and the law Posted: August 20, 2008 at 05:49 AM (#2909835)
Re: 6

And all this time I thought you WERE Tim Marchman...####...
   8. BFFB Posted: August 20, 2008 at 07:03 AM (#2909842)
Luis Rivas also came up at a very young age...
   9. Walt Davis Posted: August 20, 2008 at 04:28 PM (#2910489)
he showed he could play well at a very young age; it’s difficult to overestimate how strong a predictor of eventual stardom that is.

No he didn't. He put up a 95 OPS+. Now, that's fine for a CF (about average) and you might have expected him to improve (though it was out of line with what you'd expect from his minors numbers), it's not a predictor of stardom but of, at best, above-averagedness. Sure, he could be the next Carlos Beltran but chances are he's (at best) the next standard 280/330/390 CF. That's a perfectly useful player especially if he plays good defense. But he's not worth spending an article stressing about.
   10. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 20, 2008 at 04:34 PM (#2910504)
Sure, he could be the next Carlos Beltran but chances are he's (at best) the next standard 280/330/390 CF.

He hit .360/.391 as a 21 year old and .327/.391 as a 22 year old and you think he's at best going to be a .330/.390 player?
   11. Dizzypaco Posted: August 20, 2008 at 04:39 PM (#2910514)
Performing well at age 21 is a strong predictor of stardom. Assuming, of course, that you continue to improve at ages 22 and 23. Which he didn't. With each passing year, his performance at age 21 is going to be less and less relevant to future projections.
   12. Loren F.'s well-anchored glenoid Posted: August 20, 2008 at 04:41 PM (#2910517)
Well, considering the Yankees' other options at CF now (and considering that Damon is no longer an everyday CF), Yankees may as well not give up on Melky. Even if he tops out at 95 OPS+ or 100 OPS+, he has value.
   13. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 20, 2008 at 04:43 PM (#2910522)
Well, considering the Yankees' other options at CF now (and considering that Damon is no longer an everyday CF), Yankees may as well not give up on Melky.

Yeah, but he's only got a year or so before the real CFer of the future comes up, so he better start strong next year if he wants to get an opportunity to show he can still play.
   14. Loren F.'s well-anchored glenoid Posted: August 20, 2008 at 04:46 PM (#2910534)
A year is a long time in baseball. For instance, in just 3/4 of a year, Melky went from possible chip in a trade for Santana to AAA project...
   15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 04:48 PM (#2910538)
"All Hope Is Not Lost on Melky Cabrera"

This is true. As young as he is, it's possible that during his lifetime, science will discover a way to flush out his inferior athletic genes and replace them with those of a good ballplayer. Possibly involving shrunken doctors in a tiny submarine.
   16. JPWF13 Posted: August 21, 2008 at 10:07 AM (#2911335)
He hit .360/.391 as a 21 year old and .327/.391 as a 22 year old and you think he's at best going to be a .330/.390 player?


He's also hit .235/.288/.317 the last 365 days (589 PAs)- "good" for an OPS+ of 61- that's absolutely horrific.

Maybe he can take solace in this guy's age 23 season, or maybe he's following thus guy's career path...
   17. Mayonnaise Savant (DTM) Posted: August 21, 2008 at 10:24 AM (#2911354)
He's also hit .235/.288/.317 the last 365 days (589 PAs)- "good" for an OPS+ of 61- that's absolutely horrific.


I hope he doesn't decide to pull a Patterson.
   18. seeking a clever screen name since 1999 Posted: August 21, 2008 at 10:38 AM (#2911384)
if he were a stock I’d buy as much as I could afford

At $.001 per share, that should be quite a lot.

Anyway, he is still young and that does still matter. Also, four walks in three games at AAA -- maybe guys down there just can't throw strikes or maybe somebody got him to understand something pretty quickly. Predicting stardom for him is pretty silly at this point, but he still has a good chance to be a useful player and have a decent enough career.
   19. tjm1 Posted: August 21, 2008 at 11:03 AM (#2911422)
There are more guys than a lot of people realize who did OK in their very early 20's and then flamed out. Rick Manning is starting to look like a good comp for Cabrera. I suppose he could put it all back together, but even if he has a 1500 game career as a below average, but good-enough-to-start centerfielder, that's not so bad.
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