N.Y. Sun: Normandin: Adjustments Could Give Tribe Vicious Troika of Arms

Carmona not grew?

The data gives you the idea that Carmona is, to a degree, intentionally throwing the ball out of the zone. He has increased his sinking fastball usage to 82% from an already lofty 75%, and with this rise in sinkers has come a rise in G/F ratio. According to Pitch f/x, Carmona has given up just nine extra-base hits on the season. The opposition’s Isolated Power — a figure derived from subtracting batting average from slugging percentage — is just .063 against Carmona, a number that makes even Dodgers speedster Juan Pierre look like a middle-of-the-order bruiser by comparison in the abstract. The data shows that Carmona loves to go high with his sinker; when hitters bite, they get on top of it and hit a grounder, or they just let it go for a ball.

This has been the key to Carmona’s success, and to his credit, it has worked. The problem is that with viewings of game tape and data such as that of Pitch f/x, it is not the kind of success that is guaranteed to work long-term. Like his teammate before him, Carmona should get to a stage where he needs to mix up his pitches more, or see his production drop precipitously — as his QERA suggests. Cleveland’s pennant chances rest on the production of this pair of quality arms. But perhaps, like Sabathia, Carmona’s issues will only be fixed once he’s deemed broken.