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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, December 30, 2008NY Times: Mets Make 3-Year Offer For Lowe
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Dempster is 4 years younger and has 500 less innings on his arm. It only makes sense that he was signed for a longer contract, and only one year more than the Mets are offering Lowe. Boras, IMO, is an a$$.
Lowe has also been a much better pitcher than Dempster, who has had two good seasons as a starter in his career, whereas Lowe has been an above average starter six of the last seven years.
I feel like whichever ONE we will get will disappoint while the one we let get away will be a destroyer.
SO, the only way - GET BOTH!
An ass he may well be, but it's not because of things like using the Dempster deal as a comp. That's just good old-fashioned agenting. Making up phantom offers, holding out your draft-pick clients and ending up costing them money for no real good reason other than to make your rep as a hard-ass? Those are good reasons to loathe Boras.
The Mets' offer is a solid opening gambit -- right now, they appear to have no competition, though I am sure that if it ever appears the Mets might get him for something like that deal somebody will setp forward with a slightly better offer. Perhaps the Braves with 3/$39M. I think this is probing the bottom of the market, and seeing if anyone else is with them there.
And seeing if that someone is the gorilla across town . . . .
Yada, yada, yada. First of all, signing Derek Lowe is hardly adding a "superstar." How would signing Lowe to replace Perez be different than signing, oh . . . Raul Ibanez to replace Pat Burrell? Except that it would actually be an improvement instead of a mistake . . . .
Second, the Mets have had their chemistry issues. And you know what? They are gradually getting rid of them. Paul Lo Duca. Billy Wagner -- who technically will still be on the roster but won't be anywhere near the clubhouse in '09.
Third, I believe I hear the sound of worry beneath that silliness. You see the Mets have filled the bullpen holes that gave the Phillies a huge advantage in 2008, and now you see them attacking the rotation hole they have remaining. So what do you have left to cling to? Better living through chemistry. You might want to focus on getting your second baseman healthy more than on the Mets' chemistry, my friend.
Phillies folks are not worried about the Mets, I assure you. You have plugged some holes, but you haven't plugged up others. You still have no second baseman and your LF is not proven at all. Your 1B is a fossil who still can't speak english 100 million dollars after he got here and one explosive second half hardly means he's not your new Moises. Two right handed closers from the AL West don't bother me either, as if K Rod gets off to a shaky start, who knows what kind of stir that could create in that shiny new locker room.
Don't worry about Chase. He'll be ready for opening day. Oh yeah, and what gap in the starting rotation? The Jonathan Niese gap? Is that like the Mendoza Line for rotations? The way I see it, we still have 4 strong and depth in the 5 hole.
Again, see you in September ... in the meantime taking out the Giants on the 10th and the Rangers in early June will suffice ...
you had your time ... this is our time ... ;)
As for the left-fielder, you really need to get your criticisms straight. Are the Mets doomed because they are signing a bunch of superstars and thus lack chemsitry, or because they are going with "unproven" guys like Daniel Murphy who may suck, but could (just maybe) add a dimension of rookie grit and hustle and . . . dare I say it . . . chemistry???
Just asking . . . .
Second base . . . well, I got nothin' for that one. Except you still don't have Utley, and you've got nothing but a wish and a prayer about getting him back for opening day.
Up to now, you were sort of making sense. But if you think Donovan McNabb is taking you to the Superbowl, you are delusional.
And if he thinks I'm a Giants' fan, he's doubly so.
And Sam, thanks for carrying our flag against world ######## there. You know we didn't whistle in the graveyard when we won the division in 2006. But Phillies fans think if they keep putting us down that will make them win again.
I certainly don't think the Eagles are going to the Superbowl. I just said they'd beat the Giants. Not too much to ask at this point and not too impractical either considering they're just not what they appear to be. The Eagles will meet the Giants in the DIVISIONAL playoffs. There is still the NFC Championship to contend with and I don't see anyone beating the Falcons.
And if he thinks I'm a Giants' fan, he's doubly so.
Are the Mets doomed because they are signing a bunch of superstars and thus lack chemsitry, or because they are going with "unproven" guys like Daniel Murphy who may suck, but could (just maybe) add a dimension of rookie grit and hustle and . . . dare I say it . . . chemistry???
Fair point. Your catcher and Pelfrey too could certainly blend with guys like Wright and Church. That should be the objective but there just still seems to be this disjointedness somewhere in the organization. I'm not sure where or what it is, and we still have a long way to go before opening day.
Except you still don't have Utley, and you've got nothing but a wish and a prayer about getting him back for opening day.
I've got more than a wish and a prayer. How's this? If Utley plays opening day, you come down and actively root for the Phils to beat the Mets at CBP on 5/1 and if not, i'll be up there on May 6th wearing my Jose Reyes gear and praising the enemy. So ... you in Sam?
Philadelphia - across all sports - is universally accepted as the home for obnoxious sports fans. Puh-lease. And you're accusing NYC fans of being obnoxious? Perhaps it's because we have things to celebrate from time to time, while Philly is so pathetic it winds up being jealous ... of PITTSBURG.
Let's see, what do these 4 guys have in common . . .
I assume most Phans are not worried about the Mets or anyone else, because their team just won the "########" World Series.
However, you my friend most obviously ARE WORRIED, and may I ask why?
Were you one of those phans who, by 2005/06 thought the Phils needed to be blown up and rebuilt, rather than tweaked around the edges?
That's it, you see the 2007/08 Mets as being like the 2003-06 Phils who were oh so close to the playoffs each year but let it slip through their fingers in August and September each year.
IF the Mets blow up their core then you no longer have to worry...
I don't actually know anything about football, but I find your claim confusing.
Holy Christ, you might want to worry about beating the Vikings first. Remember, only the Giants get the bye, silly Iggles fan.
BTW...is there any logic to how Mets and Yankees divide up as football fans? I always assumed more Mets fans were Jets fans and more Yankees fans were Giants fans...the latter is probably true, but I'm not longer sure about the former...maybe I've been swayed by rhyme.
Obviously, MCoA, you haven't been listening to the financial experts in management everywhere who are cutting jobs, benefits, and pontificating on how we all have to cut back for their sake:
TEH ECONOMY!!!11! IS BAD ECONOMY!!!
63-14!!!
My issue is with "delusional" (14, 32). That just seems like know-nothingism. I don't really understand how you watch Donovan McNabb and come away with the impression that he's some sort of joke. He isn't as good as he used to be, but he's a solidly above average QB.
EDIT: Obviously McNabb isn't the only player on the Eagles, but no one is making analogies between appreciating the quality of the Philly pass defense and daytime hallucinations, so I presume that somehow McNabb is the one factor they see ruining the Eagles chances.
No, that's generally how is works, especially back in the olden days. With the advent of the Internet, greater media outlets, etc, the resulting decline of localism has made it less this way, but more Yanks fans generally like the Giants and more Mets fans generally like the Jets. The Jints did play for a while in Yankee Stadium and the Jets played at Shea.
I suspect since both moved to Jersey this has somewhat changed.
63-14!!!
Believe he teaches at Louisville.
How the hell'd you guys lose to Syracuse (again)?
Then move to NYC. It's going to get a lot cheaper soon!
Boras can't help that there were so many FA pitchers available on this market. Allowing the Yankees to set the market increased the value of guys like Perez and Lowe, but it also removed the biggest bidder for their services.
I'm a huge Lowe fan, especially for the Mets, but he doesn't have the "look" of a dominant pitcher, and that's going to hurt him in contract discussions. I think a lot of traditional baseball minds see Lowe as not dramatically better than a guy like Jeff Suppan after the 2006 season, crazy as that may sound, and his age is going to hurt him. I mean, Pedro Martinez got only $53M/4, and he was younger than Lowe was with a far better resume.
Different market and a different time, but this Mets offer is a little more than half Sabathia's annual salary and four fewer years. It's two fewer years than Burnett's at five million per year less. That's an insane discrepancy right there based on AJ's and Lowe's respective histories. I think you're right that the Yanks' apparent absence from the bidding is hurting Boras and Lowe, but they were involved earlier with him and maybe that was the time to force the issue with other teams, rather than wait.
I don't know a single soul who is Mets/Giants- but then again I am from Long Island, though I live in the City now...
I do know a few who are Yankees/Jets...
*Raises hand*
I was eight in 1986-87, which probably explains it.
Jacobs is still banged up courtesy of the Eagles and Earth, Wind and Fire are nothing more than Hall and Oates with a banged up Jacobs.
My issue is with "delusional" (14, 32).
No one ever said at any point that Donovan would lead the the Eagles to the Superbowl.
The last time the Giants played the Eagles in the playoffs I was at the game. Ron Dixon returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and Jason Sehorn had a pick 6. How the #### do you give up a pick 6 to Jason Sehorn? Donovan McNabb must really suck.
That was Donovan's first playoff game and a completely incorrect statement. The Eagles beat the Giants behind Jeff Garcia in the WC in Jan 07. What are you talking about dude?
*******************
The Eagles are clearly the team with the most momentum except for maybe the Falcons in the NFC. Donovan McNabb is not their best player, Brian Westbrook is. Also keep in mind the Eagles have the best defense in the NFC and handily won 4 of their last 5, while the Giants struggled down the stretch. The only concern against the Vikings is that they have a solid rush defense and it may give Big Red the excuse he needs to air it out 60 times again.
A few weeks ago I took every pitcher with 800+ IP from 2004-08, I used a run estimator (ERP) on their opponents batting lines...
The 3 pitchers with the greatest positive discrepancy (fewer real runs allowed than estimated)were:
Aaron Harang -9.88%
Jake Peavy -11.80%
Roy Oswalt -12.49%
the 3 with the greatest negative discrepancy (more real runs alloeed than estimated) were:
Derek Lowe 12.30%
Randy Johnson 12.11%
Jake Westbrook 8.91%
the 3 with the smallest discrepancy were:
Cliff Lee 0.18%
Bronson Arroyo 0.13%
Johan Santana -0.27%
what does this mean? I have no idea.
I guess you missed the Giants/Panthers game.
Two weeks ago everyone was jocking the Panthers; now everybody's talking about the Eagles. I know people are always experts in the last thing they see, but things can change pretty darn quick in this league.
Believe he teaches at Louisville.
Correct. I went to college at Bradley.
How the hell'd you guys lose to Syracuse (again)?
Simple: Tom Jurich hired Steve Kragthorpe, who in two short years has run the program into the ground.
Basically, 3/36 is a sweet bargain on Derek Lowe, and I can't imagine the Mets could actually get him at this price.
It all depends on whether akrasian (# 8) is right about the Dodgers, and/or AROM is right about the Angels (# 33), and/or Matt Clement is right about the bunch of teams he identifies (# 35). As I said, I think the Mets' offer is to probe the market and see if there is, in fact, ANY other interest in Lowe at what is, essentially a somewhat below-market (but still respectable) three-year deal. Because if there is, this offer should certainly smoke it out. Somebody should come in with 3/$40M, or at least be willing to add an option year at the Mets' dollar figure, but you just never know. Sometimes you come in with a bid you think somebody will raise, and everybody else folds behind you.
And, just in case anyone is wondering . . . I ain't making any bet where I'd have to pretend to root for the Phillies against the Mets. Not in this lifetime, or the next. I'll root against the Mets the same day I vote for George W. Bush.
Skiing (both types), skating, walking in the woods...
It's going to be hard to justify any contract by comparing it to Burnett. Talk about an insane overpay. The Yankees would come out pretty lucky to get 1000 IP of 115 ERA+ from Burnett; certainly that's not crap, but it's not worth that contract.
That said, Burnett is four years younger than Lowe, and he has the look of a potential ace, especially after leading the AL in strikeouts in 2008. When Burnett is on his game, he just looks like a dominating pitcher, blowing his pitches by hitters. Lowe is more likely to induce the weak groundout. That's going to matter, even though it's a foolish way to evaluate talent. A lot of baseball people still look at Burnett as a guy that could put it all together and be a legitimate CY candidate.
Superficially, you've got a pitcher who will be 36, with relatively unimpressive-looking stuff, who doesn't strike a ton of people out, and first impressions are hard to shake. If I'm Boras, I'll talk about how Lowe is reliable, how he's got relatively low mileage on his arm because of his seasons as a reliever, about his decline in walks, etc., but none of those are "sexy" and that's going to hurt his bottom line.
estimated runs v actual runs:
The 3 pitchers with the greatest positive discrepancy (fewer real runs allowed than estimated)were:
Rudy May 9.14%
Bill Singer 8.65%
Nolan Ryan 7.31%
the 3 with the greatest negative discrepancy (more real runs allowed than estimated) were:
Livan Hernandez -7.40%
Steve Trachsel -7.62%
Woody Williams -9.36%
the 7 with the smallest discrepancy were:
Mike Flanagan 0.06%
Jim Kaat 0.05%
Dennis Martinez 0.02%
Bob Gibson 0.00%
Steve Renko 0.00%
Jerry Koosman -0.04%
Doug Drabek -0.05%
getting back to Lowe, I think this means that he has pitched somewhat better than his ERA+ from 2004-2008- possibly not by much- he "should" have given up runs at the same rate as Oswalt- meaning both Lowe and Oswalt "should" have been around 125 ERA+ rather than Lowe's 114 and Oswalt's 135
Of course this is something like a DIPS argument, but basically it seems to me that Lowe's and Oswalt's actual run/estimated run discrepancies are unsustainable.
I saw it. I wouldn't get too excited about Ward's day against a bad defense against the run. The Panther's are hype. And having to go to overtime while Manning's receivers just doink doink doinked for the last 4 games??? I don't know. I think the Eagles, Cowboys, and Vikings games were a better indicator of the direction the Giants are heading.
Sometimes you come in with a bid you think somebody will raise, and everybody else folds behind you.
And, just in case anyone is wondering . . . I ain't making any bet where I'd have to pretend to root for the Phillies against the Mets. Not in this lifetime, or the next.
That's what happens when one has the best hand.
What if they trade Murphy to LA for Pierre and start Slappy in LF?
frontrunner
:-)
I don't care who you're playing, 300+ yds between your top two backs is impressive.
I'm not sure what this means. Are these two thoughts related?
I thought the Giants played fine in Minnesota. The starters who played began to get it going at the end of the first half, and the scrubs were impressive in the second.
could be, but Webb is at only 3.5%
It could also be heavily impacted by infield defense...
It doesn't explain Johnson's recent years... (his results have been far worse than his peripherals ever since he went to NYC...)
The whole list "looks" pretty random WRT pitcher type.
One thing I noticed is that Johnson for his career is 2.4% - so his giving up a huge number of unexpected runs is recent phenomenom in his career.
Javier Vasquez for his career is 1.6%, last 5 years, 4.7%
OTOH Glavine is -3.5% for his career, and -3.9% the last 5 years.
Pretty much exactly right. Before that, I can't say I was a fan of any particular team. Nor were my parents especially partisan. For me, it was all about who had the coolest uniforms (although, in the early-mid 1980s, that was mostly a race to the bottom), or whose starting pitcher had the best facial hair, or whatever other mildly amusing tidbit had tickled my fancy that day.
But 1986-87 happened to be the confluence of (a) me getting old enough to have actual opinions about things and (b) great runs by the Mets and Giants. If (a) had coincided with the Yankees and Jets having great seasons, I feel pretty confident that my fanhood would've been different.
I hate you and call a curse down on you and your family for the next ten generations.
Fair enough. It just hasn't happened against stellar rushing defenses lately. That's all I'm saying.
I'm not sure what this means. Are these two thoughts related?
Sure they're related. The Giants receivers have proven in recent weeks that they just aren't good enough to say Plastico doesn't matter. I thought Hixon and Smith would take care of business, but it just hasn't turned out that they won't drop the ball when it matters.
I thought the Giants played fine in Minnesota. The starters who played began to get it going at the end of the first half, and the scrubs were impressive in the second.
Agreed, and the game didn't matter. Except now I have to go to Minneapolis this weekend instead of Chicago. (Which actually helps financially.)
obnoxious?!?
That's a lot of hate. Let's see if I can get more out of you.
What if the Mets trade Wright to the Phillies for say, Ibañez? Or to the Braves for Frenchy? Would you root against the Mets then?
Boras has taken a few clients all the way to spring training, waiting for whatever number he has stuck in his head. So the Mets are not just bidding against other teams, they're also bidding against figments of Boras's imagination.
I hear Ron Cooper is available as a head coach.
What if the Mets trade Wright to the Phillies for say, Ibañez? Or to the Braves for Frenchy? Would you root against the Mets then?
I don't know ... David Wright is no Pedro Feliz ... lmfao LOVE IT!
Have they played any recently? Not counting Carr's scrambles, their backs went for 120 on 27 carries (4.4 ypc, which is excellent) against the Vikes, who are normally the tops. Admittedly no Pat Williams, but no Jacobs either (whom I'm guessing would have played if the game meant something). The last quality rushing defense they played was the Eagles', and if you will allow me to discount that ill-fated Manningham trick play which lost 12, they still had success (100 yds/23 carries/4.3 ypc).
I think the Giants' running game indeed depends on Jacobs' health as you say, but it depends just as much on playcalling (esp. with Ward; he seems to be better on draws and misdirections than up the gut) and whether their O-line can control the LOS.
I'm still not sure what it had to do with going to overtime.
I think the Giants' running game indeed depends on Jacobs' health as you say, but it depends just as much on playcalling (esp. with Ward; he seems to be better on draws and misdirections than up the gut) and whether their O-line can control the LOS.
Still when you can't pass, 100 yards ain't gonna cut it.
I'm still not sure what it had to do with going to overtime.
Doesn't matter bro.
Certainly that was the case the first time around. Perhaps we'll see if that continues to be the case.
Uh... ok. It was your statement, but whatever you like.
My wife got a job at the University of Maine.
But a duel of the Mannings would break every all time ratings record. It'd make for insufferable commercials, but one hell of a game.
I'm an Italian from the Bronx. I like the Mets and Jets.
I don't know, we're going to need to use up a lot of housing for CC Sabathia...
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