N.Y. Times: Rosenheck: Brewers Likely to Gain After Their Loss

Rosenheck, back with his latest Keeping Score.

Melvin’s gamble on Sabathia demonstrated a keen understanding of what statistical analysts call the “success cycle,” or the oscillation between very good and very bad teams that is the best path to profitability for franchises with limited resources. Because making the playoffs represents such a financial bonanza, the relationship between wins and revenues is disjointed. Improving to 93 wins from 88 can be worth a fortune, but improving to 83 from 78 is mostly insignificant.

As a result, teams can make money either by gunning for a championship, or by reducing payroll, collecting revenue-sharing checks and accumulating high draft picks — but not by spending heavily to achieve a competitive second-place finish. The Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics have wisely made abrupt moves between contending and rebuilding in recent years, while perennial also-rans like the Toronto Blue Jays seem condemned to an 85-win purgatory.