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Saturday, June 06, 2009

NY Times (Schwarz): Pitching’s Bright Stars Sometimes Flame Out

Scouts have generally called Strasburg the best amateur pitching prospect they have seen. This is the rough equivalent of being rated the world’s No. 1 hydrogen dirigible. For all the promise Strasburg has shown, having names like McDonald, Prior and Taylor in one’s family tree would leave any pitcher digging for adoption papers.

Twenty years ago, Louisiana State’s Ben McDonald was roundly hailed as the best college pitching prospect ever; he won 78 major league games before retiring at 30 with a bum shoulder. No one took McDonald’s consensus best-ever tag until 2001, when Mark Prior of the University of Southern California was such a steely-eyed, bazooka-armed, strike-throwing machine that he was nicknamed Robopitcher. Prior won 18 games for the Chicago Cubs two years later before an avalanche of injuries left him pitching’s Venus de Milo.

Three high school pitchers during this period also were electric enough to prompt best-ever hyperbole: Todd Van Poppel in 1990, Brien Taylor in 1991 and Matt White in 1996. Van Poppel won just 40 games in a meandering career, and Taylor and White descended into the moat of the minor leagues, never to be heard from again.

Strasburg, who turns 21 next month, is in fact the sixth once-in-a-lifetime pitcher of his own short lifetime. But this has barely distracted the raving scouts, whose job is to look forward, not back. This time, they mean it. Really.

Like a dirigible? That’s terigible.

NaOH Posted: June 06, 2009 at 10:36 PM | 8 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: June 07, 2009 at 03:02 AM (#3209193)
It's obviously impossible to say that without being abused McDonald and Prior would have had much longer careers, but it's still obvious that they were abused.

Okay, so maybe McDonald wasn't abused that much--220+ innings at ages 24 and 25--but we'd have to see pitch counts and think about how hard he was worked in the minors (ah, duh, I remember now--he barely pitched in the minors). And a workload like his early major-league one would never happen now, either.
   2. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 07, 2009 at 03:24 AM (#3209196)

Okay, so maybe McDonald wasn't abused that much--220+ innings at ages 24 and 25


Prior never threw 220-plus innings in a season even once.
   3. Obama Bomaye Posted: June 07, 2009 at 03:53 AM (#3209203)
But we do know Edwin Jackson was abused in that sickening 132-pitch start a couple weeks ago.
   4. baudib Posted: June 07, 2009 at 04:08 AM (#3209207)
McDonald was abused in college.
   5. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: June 07, 2009 at 04:17 AM (#3209210)
We know Prior's pitch counts, though; a truckload of 120+ and even 130+ games.
   6. OCF Posted: June 07, 2009 at 04:21 AM (#3209212)
I realize that hot amateur pitching prospects (which is what this article is about) aren't the same thing as hot young rookie pitchers, but the cases I remember were hot young pitchers in the majors. Those guys did wind up with major league careers - after all, they had their rookie year and usually a number of years after that.

I've been a baseball fan for a long time. Here's a name that sticks with me: Gary Nolan. Man, there was some excitement about him.

As a 19 year old rookie in 1967, Nolan pitched 226 highly successful innings. His 147 ERA+ was 3rd best in the league (4th in raw ERA). He was particularly notable for his strikeouts - that's why he drew so much attention. Since his IP number was nowhere near league-leading, neither was his raw strikeout number. But his strikeout rate - 8.18 per 9 innings - appears to have led the league, and he did that without walking a ton of batters (like Bob Veale). He made the top 10 of the league in WHIP.

(I had to check on Nolan Ryan: he's one year older than Gary Nolan, but he didn't appear at all in the majors in 1967, and what bb-ref has on him in the minors has just 11 IP that year.)

He did have a substantial career, retiring with a 110-70 lifetime W-L record. He was around through most of the "Big Red Machine" years, including that he was still useful as a pitcher in 1975-76. But he wasn't striking batters out any more by then. 1976 - his age-28 season - was his last effective season, although he got a few scraps of work after that.
   7. Keith Law Posted: June 08, 2009 at 10:37 AM (#3209892)
Taylor and White descended into the moat of the minor leagues, never to be heard from again.


They got hurt, Taylor in a non-baseball injury. Kind of a major detail to omit, unless you think it would detract from your predetermined point.
   8. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: June 08, 2009 at 11:03 AM (#3209900)
Taylor and White descended into the moat of the minor leagues, never to be heard from again.


They got hurt, Taylor in a non-baseball injury. Kind of a major detail to omit, unless you think it would detract from your predetermined point.

Except that Schwarz didn't omit the nature of Taylor's injury. In fact, the web article even provided a link to the original 1994 story about Taylor's surgery, which also mentioned the fight. Here's the part of Schwarz's article that you apparently missed:

a shoulder injury sustained in a fight tore up Taylor’s ticket to Yankee Stadium
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