N.Y. Times: Silver: For Griffey, the Roads Not Taken (RR)

The latest Keeping Score...as Nate Silver Pecotarates Griffey.

¶His career could have ended like Dawson’s, with a long and somewhat graceful decline, his skills diminishing by a tiny fraction each year, but with a big season or two along the way. Our system estimates that had Griffey followed the Dawson path (but adjusting for the friendly conditions of Griffey’s home ballpark), he would have finished with 725 homers.

¶It could have ended like Maris’s — not just slowed, but completely undermined by injury. Maris, a far better-rounded player at his peak than is remembered today, hit just 35 home runs after turning 30. Had Griffey followed the Maris path, he would have finished with 448 home runs.

¶Or it could have ended like Aaron’s, with Griffey indeed maintaining a 40- or 50-homer pace into his late 30s, and shattering all records along the way. Our system estimates that, had he followed the Aaron path, Griffey would have ended his career with 904 home runs.

Instead, Griffey has staked out his own path, somewhere between the Dawson and Maris trajectories. Aaron he will not be, but precisely what made Aaron such a special player is that he sustained his core abilities past a point when nearly every other players’ decline.

When we ask Pecota to project what is left of Griffey’s career based on his current level of ability, we have him finishing with 660 homers — the same total as Mays.

That outcome could be regarded as a disappointment only by someone with no sense for baseball’s history.