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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Friday, September 03, 2010
“Some of the worst trades I’ve ever made were with Walt,” [Kevin] Towers said. “He’s the one guy, every time we made a trade I’d end up saying: ‘You know what? This is not going to be good.’ I always tell him, ‘The only one I ever won on you was Fernando Valenzuela for Danny Jackson, and the only reason I won that deal was because Jackson retired and Fernando didn’t.’ ”
At 59, Jocketty has been around long enough to have traded icons of the 1980s like Valenzuela. He is upbeat by nature, and players call him approachable and calm. But only one general manager is older — Jack Zduriencik of the Seattle Mariners, by a month — and Jocketty came to baseball through some of the game’s most colorful characters.
...
Fan support is still tepid; the Reds averaged fewer than 17,000 fans in their most recent home series, and they rank 12th of 16 N.L. teams in attendance per game. The hope is that the Reds’ performance will increase the season-ticket base and help add to a payroll that ranked 19th in the majors on opening day.
...
“This is the oldest franchise in baseball,” Jocketty said. “There is a history of winning here. People still remember the Big Red Machine, and that’s huge. But other than 1990, there hasn’t been a whole lot in between. It’s now important to get people believing that this can be similar to that era, and that it’s going to be a lot of fun to be a Reds fan.”
NTNgod
Posted: September 03, 2010 at 04:25 AM | 59 comment(s)
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Good for the Reds, and good for the city of Cincy, who really could use a couple of winning seasons strung toghether.
Bruce and Stubbs, yes, I think, they can both get a bit better. One key to this season has been Bruce and Stubbs hitting better. But all the other guys are doing as well as they can, in many cases better than expected, and will likely decline as a group. I will be interested to see what they do with Alonso.
So, even given the the variance/risk in pitching, I am more optmistic about the pitching than the hitting moving forward. Cueto, Volquez, Chapman, Leake, Bailey, Wood, Smith--a lot of young talent there, as well as useful vets in Arroyo, Rhodes, Cordero and maybe Harang.
I don't think there were too many---Woody Williams for Ray Lankford worked out great for the Cardinals: over the first 40 or so starts Williams made for the Cardinals after the trade, from August 2001 to June 2003, he was one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball.
Towers unloaded Brett Tomko on the Cardinals, for whom he was terrible, in return for Luther Hackman, so that's probably an "addition-by-subtraction" win for him....
Towers stole Luke Gregerson for Khalil Greene, but that was after Jocketty was gone...
That's just plan weird, at best: here we have a division leading team, which hasn't made the playoffs in 15 years, leading the league in runs per game, and 2nd in home runs by just 1 dinger, and the response of the city of Cincinnati is just one big collective yawn. I don't get that, at all.
The local TV ratings have been among the best in baseball all year, topped by a huge number for Chapman's first game the other night. It seems the city has taken notice, though like many other places where the team's suddenly good after years of second-division finishes, it isn't immediately translating into ticket sales.
Over the next month or so, through the end of June, they drew 30,000+ six more times in 19 home games.
But since the start of July they've drawn 30,000+ 15 times* in 19 home games---including 12 straight---up until this just completed series with the Brewers (could the start of school have something to do with it??)...
*I'm cheating here, as I'm rounding up two crowds that exceeded 29,500
The pitching side has all been done from within save for Masset and Rhodes who have been very good.
It all comes back to Rolen. Rolen anchors an improved defense. Rolen pushes Phillips back to a more appropriate role in the lineup. Rolen breaks up the lefties.
It was a great move given the bullwhip effect it has had on the team's performance.
But let's be honest about Walt's motives. He picked up Scott because a dead man could field better than Edwin and nobody else thought Rolen had much left in the tank. It was a way to marginally improve the team while other things were accomplished.
That suddenly there was this dramatic and loud "CLICK" leading to the Reds beating the holy cr*p out of the NL Central was simply the Fates rewarding common sense in a magnificent fashion.
a perfect storm against the cardinals.
props to the reds for playing good ball though. i only hope they start regressing before the season is over.
Stubbs has been a 2 win player this year (2.2 WAR at bbref, 1.7 at fangraphs); Taveras was replacement-level last year (+0.2/-0.2). Stubbs' WAR is in the neighborhood of guys like Jeter, Markakis, Cody Ross, Vlad Guerrero; that's pretty valuable, especially for someone making the league minimum.
he also got rid of griffey which was a really important thing to do and no one dared to do that before
and drew stubbs is to willy taveras as barry lamar is to um, uh, major league baseball players
- as for the cards, not sure why they wanted mozeliak instead of jocketty, but what can i say. he sure nuff hasn't exactly done anything good
and it looks to me as if TLR has just about worn out his welcome/worn out himself and everyone really could benefit from a change
Diamondbacks
Mariners
Braves
Cubs
Dodgers
Marlins
Nationals
Who knows, these guys might get axed/retire also
Detroit
Royals
Indians
Mets
Phillies
Pirates
That's about half the league as a possibility.
There's also the Blue Jays. Cito has confirmed that he'll be retiring after this season, and his replacement has yet to be named.
EDIT: Which is not to say that I want him as a manager in Toronto. Because I don't.
As one who turned 59 last Saturday, OUCH!
It would be fun to see Larussa in a place where all his players are terrible, so he could indulge his penchant for mixing and swapping to his heart's content. The pitcher hits 5th! One guy alternates between C, 2B and LF! Defensive replacement for the 1b in the 3rd!
No it isn't, the Braves are, followed by the Cubs the Reds aren't even close to being in the running. the Reds are no older than Walt's old team the cardinals
I think the part where they win a lot of games would also be appealing to Pirate fans.
It seems from all indications that it's time for TLR and St. Louis to part ways. It's also possible that he will begin to lose his skills, as managers frequently do around that age.
But whatever annoying habits he might have regarding lineup construction and reliever usage, he's been a fantastic manager and I sure as hell wouldn't bet that he's lost it.
I think he's mostly talking about the Woody Williams-Ray Lankford deal. I liked it at the time -- it seemed that they were going to let Woody walk (they didn't think he was worth the money), they had an excess of pitching, and needed the bat. Lankford had been underrated, and then fell apart completely in 2002.
Nothing else too big. The Danny Jackson-Fernando trade, which he mentioned. Towers dealt Carlos Hernandez to the Cards for Ben Johnson in 2000; that's pretty good, though Johnson didn't really pan out in the end. Tomko/Hackman and Brian Hunter/Kerry Robinson are forgettable from all angles (Tomko's wife being the most notable asset).
I don't think there's any question TLR is one of the top 10 or so managers in baseball history, but I can't imagine he gives the Pirates anything more than a 4-6 win bump.
I suppose if the Cleveland Browns of today can claim the records of Jim Brown, Otto Graham and Brian Sipe, then Jocketty can claim they are related to the 1869 baseball team
I meant the dig at Taveras versus Stubbs.
And while Stubbs IS better he still isn't much of a hitter. I am still on the fence on his defense. Sometimes he looks good, sometimes he looks lost.
Oh sure, he's not going to turn this roster into pennant contenders overnight. But if I'm running a team with a managerial opening and TLR is on the market, he's a guy I'm going to call. It just seems that his actual managerial abilities too often get lost amid the smaller stuff the guy does that annoy us.
Like we have enough info to confirm Stubb's defensive prowess? And I thought sensible fans tried to blend metrics with personal assessments?
And if the claim is going to be made that I don't follow the Reds enough that is complete bullsh#t. I have seen the Reds play in person either on the road or at home about two dozen times and follow all of the NL Central via MLB Extra Innings
I find the suggested snark wildly misplaced given my season long admiration of Cincy. If you like Stubbs more, great. But there is no justification for nonsense.
That is Pete Dubois silliness. Any negative Reds comment is deemed a reason for WAR.
Although Jocketty didn't give up the player the Padres originally asked for, some kid named Pujols.
Willy Taveras had a OPS of .559 (42 OPS+) for the Reds; Stubbs has been .716 (89) this year. Devensively, rWAR has rated Stubbs +21 over the past 2 seasons (Taveras was +14 last year), while fWAR has Stubbs +7.1 (Taveras was +14.6).
To say that (1) Stubbs isn't a significant upgrade over Taveras, or (2) Stubbs isn't at least good (possibly very good) defensively is unequivocal crap.
I'm with #5, I'm more optimistic about the Reds pitching than hitting moving past this year. The reds have 6 starters under the age of 27 that have had success in the majors or minors, or have been regarded as top prospects: Cueto, Volquez, Chapman, Bailey, Wood, Leake. Cueto looks legit, and if Volquez gets his command back he should be legit. If 1 or 2 of the other 4 can become at least league average pitchers, that's a great start to a cheap and effective rotation.
Offense is going to regress. I have little faith Rolen has found a 2 year fountain of youth. This is the best I've ever seen Brandon Phillips hit, I hope the change in his approach will stick. The Reds have gotten great production from their bench, which is probably the most likely thing to regress. Bruce and Stubbs should be much better and Votto should be great again. I think the Reds score less runs next year, but pitch better and play defense just as well.
You give more credence to defensive metrics than I do over such a limited sample. Stubbs has played barely a season in the field. In my estimation that is insufficient time to make a reasonable assessment.
And over the course of their respective careers both players are below average offensively with Taveras being the worse of the two.
I just do not understand this overt hostility given that it is a matter of degree.
Unless you are projecting as to what you THINK Stubbs will become versus what we KNOW about Taveras. Stubbs can still be a good player. Taveras will never reach that stature.
A reasonable assessment. Volquez looks to be rounding into good shape. His fastball has the hop back.
Whether it's fair or not, it's hard to get too optimistic about a pitching staff being run by Dusty. Sorry, that could simply be Cubs bitterness, but it's in the back of my head as a non-Reds fan.
Taveras had the lowest OPS of all MLB hitters with at least 400 PA last year (in fact, it was the lowest of anyone with more than 255 PA). Stubbs' OPS this year is almost 160 points higher, and his career OPS is 83 points higher than Taveras'.
Stubbs '10 is 2 wins better than Taveras '09 by two different WAR calculations; that's the difference between Votto and either Rolen or Phillips. That's more than just a "matter of degree".
Also, tried in another thread on the Charleston Power, but, Hokieneer, was glad to see you're a WV fellow posting here. I'm from there too, though I live in Chicago now.
I would really really really like to see Rolen keep healthy for the next season or two and further his HOF case, since he has that sort of talent and injuries may have wrecked his chances as they stand today.
I am trying to remember who the "O" in the famed, short-lived "HAVOC" rotation was for the Reds. Odalis Perez? Was he ever on the Reds?
The Reds announcers are awful. I can't imagine a worse collection of major league announcers than what Cincinnati puts out, both on radio and tv.
Micah Owings, and he's still in the system somewhere. Harang - Arroyo - Volquez - Owings - Cueto
I'm a Reds fan living in Seattle, so I've never seen their local TV broadcasts. But I've been listening to virtually radio broadcast for the past couple of months, and they're embarrassing...
Second, La Russa's decision to appear with Glenn Beck isn't going to win him many D.C. fans. Tony's a wonderful manager in the right environment, but I'm now convinced Washington isn't that environment.
Diamondbacks
Mariners
Braves
Cubs
Dodgers
Marlins
Nationals
Who knows, these guys might get axed/retire also
Detroit
Royals
Indians
Mets
Phillies
Pirates
That's about half the league as a possibility.
Ain't Cito Gaston pretty much out the door in Toronto?
I haven't heard that Riggs is a goner in DC. Is that a sure thing.
Are none of the Marlins/D-backs/Mariners going to keep their mid-season hire as manager?
As a Reds fan who's not enamored of LaRussa, this is not a good set-up.
Yup. The Padres are winning this year on the backs of a terrific bullpen, assembled almost completely via the scrap heap by Kevin Towers. That was always KT's forte, and he may have left the bullpen in the best shape it ever was. He picked up Bell for Johnson, Gregerson for Khalil Greene, Thatcher for an expensive Scott Linebrink, Adams for next to nothing, Webb off of waivers, Stauffer as a failed starter.
Towers deserves a lot of credit for the 2010 Padres' success.
That's pretty interesting. The one year offer to Baker does seem to be kind of a low-ball offer. And while LaRussa might not be a spectacular fit, Dave Duncan would probably do a good job with all of those young pitchers. (Presumably he'd be coming along.)
Hasn't Duncan's forte always been veteran pitchers?
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