I'm not saying this proves there is a God. I'm just saying it's just a tiny, tiny, tiny bit of evidence that a benevolent force exists in the universe. You go benevolent force....go. Go Rays, Twins and whoever the Hell else it takes to make this little, tiny bit of paradise on Earth happen. Shanti. Shanti. Shanti.

Do Sabathia and Sheets high-five each other every time the Yankees lose?

“The strengths are going to have to be everybody playing better than they’re capable of,” Damon said. “Everybody has to have that month where we’re as good as Alex Rodriguez is.”

Um, yes. And that's why it ain't bloody likely.

They need the Red Sox and the Twins to go ~.500 while they go 22-8 (.733). What are the chances all three of those things will happen?

“There is going to be a lot going on this off-season,” [Hank Steinbrenner] said. “I promise you that.”

BRING BACK ANDY HAWKINS

By the way, in this game it was 4-2 Red Sox in the top of the 8th. Jose Veras pitching and the Red Sox went infield single, triple, walk, walk. Bases loaded, nobody out, 5-2 deficit.

Isn't this the time for Rivera, who hasn't pitched in three days? Instead Girardi left Veras in (sac fly, single), and then went to David Robertson (single, grand slam, 11-2).

I realize at 5-2 with the bases loaded the Yankees are in big trouble, but what is Girardi saving Rivera for? I realize a comeback win was improbable, but, then, so is coming back from a 7-game deficit. This was a game the Yankees had to have.

It's becoming increasingly irrelevant.

Rivera is what is called a "closer."

While all non-closers (which includes everyone else in baseball and all other sports) all naturally melt under pressure cuz they've never been in a competitive situation, having played tiddlywinks to graduate up to the mlb level...

a closer is so rare, so valuable, can ONLY be used in super-competitive situations...

like with a 3 run lead with 3 outs to go.

Wait, there were actually people who thought the Yankees had a chance at the playoffs after Tuesday's game?

They were dead before this game.

We were dead before the ship even sank.

We were dead before the ship even sank.

Sure is a long drive for Yankees fans with nothing to think about or those is it good news for those who prefer bad news?

Sure is a long drive for Yankees fans with nothing to think about or those is it good news for those who prefer bad news?

The Yankees didn’t want Toronto and Baltimore to be alone down there. Alright, alright, I’m done.

My awesome prediction was just one series late.

I'm not saying this proves there is a God. I'm just saying it's just a tiny, tiny, tiny bit of evidence that a benevolent force exists in the universe. You go benevolent force....go. Go Rays, Twins

Your benevolent force is a welfare check? Jesus H Marx that's sad.

Not nearly as sad as that constant wailing, Redneck, but keep telling yourself that. Maybe it'll keep you warm...over the long, bitterly cold winter of discontent.

“There is going to be a lot going on this off-season,” [Hank Steinbrenner] said. “I promise you that.”

To start with Hank will be holding a fillibuster during both the GM meetings and the winter meetings. YES will broadcast nothing else, and I think ESPN2 may pick up that feed when there's a delay in their midnight curling show.

2 thoughts about the game:

It's not just a myth about Bobby Abreu and the wall, is it?

The second thought is actually a question: Does A-Rod always play that far off the line? I've seen enough Yankee games that I should know this, but man, he plays really far into the hole. I couldn't help but think that, in the meltdown inning last night, if A-Rod plays a bit closer to the line and Bobby Abreu isn't deathly afraid of walls, the Sawx probably don't score. Not that is would have necessarily affected the outcome of the game or season, but on a micro level, these things interest me.

Where can I find that "comeback wins" stat? I know I'm being influenced by recent events, but it seems to me that any time this Yankee team finds itself down by at least three runs, it folds the tent and isn't able to come back.

It's not just a myth about Bobby Abreu and the wall, is it?

No, it's not. I once sat in RF at Fenway Sox/Yankees game, and you could literally see the fear in his eyes as he turned around to look for the wall before he even hit the warning track. It's amazing.

I'm sorry, for too long, I've counted out the Yankees only for them to miraculously return from the dead. So I'm not saying that they are dead until there is a body, a buried body, under six or more feet of dirt. Even then, I want to make sure the Yankees don't rise from the grave to get in the playoffs, so I'd still want armed guards around the tomb marked "2008 Yankee Season". Maybe some Landmines too.

I am always ready to bury the Yankees. Pass the shovel.

I realize at 5-2 with the bases loaded the Yankees are in big trouble, but what is Girardi saving Rivera for?

2009.

Seriously, nearly everyone they were counting on this year has put in a below-expectations year, or gotten hurt, except Rivera. Put him in bubble wrap and save him for next year. Then again, he will have an extra month to rest...

On that theme, I suspect the Yankees will finish fourth this year. There's really no reason at this point to rush back Chamberlain or Hughes or Kennedy, or push Matsui. There's no reason not to let Ponson eat a bunch of innings as the season plays itself out. This team needs to start 2009 healthy, and given how 2008 went it's probably best to ease up on the throttle the rest of this year. Toronto, OTOH, I'm sure would love a chance to finish ahead of New York, just as much as they seem to relish the role of the spoiler against TB and Boston. Toronto has a month - and IIRC 6 head-to-head games - to make up a couple games in the standings and move ahead of NY. I think they'll do it.

“There is going to be a lot going on this off-season,” [Hank Steinbrenner] said. “I promise you that.”

Are Yankees fans heartened or worried about this statement? They've had a lot going on in the past several off-seasons, with not much to show for it. Is this a sign that Hank's I-saw-Dad-screw-up-this-team-by-not-being-patient-and-I'm-not-going-to-make-the-same-mistake approach is gone? And is that a good thing?

17. Fly and the Family Phone Posted: August 28, 2008 at 08:55 AM (#2919941)

It's not just a myth about Bobby Abreu and the wall, is it?

No, it's not. I once sat in RF at Fenway Sox/Yankees game, and you could literally see the fear in his eyes as he turned around to look for the wall before he even hit the warning track. It's amazing.

Can I get a p value and some error bars on this measurement?

just for fun.... The Cardinals have a better chance of making the post season than the Yankees. :) (not a good chance mind you, but at least a chance) I love the experts. Now if there is just someway to guarantee the Red Sox don't make it then that would be proof that there is a god. (of course a real god would find a way to give Tom Brady an average offensive line and show everyone how 'good' he really is)

I hate football (in comparison to baseball) but is there some sort of stat that shows off Brady's alleged "mediocrity"? These lines have always seemed like sour grapes, but I'll believe NUMBERS. Sweet, sweet numbers.

By the way, in this game it was 4-2 Red Sox in the top of the 8th. Jose Veras pitching and the Red Sox went infield single, triple, walk, walk. Bases loaded, nobody out, 5-2 deficit.

That triple was a joke. It's kind of sad to see how badly Abreu struggles with any outfield wall. That should have been an out.

And to make sure nobody gets out of the tomb, I want roving death squads around the perimeter 24-7! I want 10,000 tough guys, and I want 10,000 soft guys to make the tough guys look tougher! And here's how I want them arranged: tough, soft, tough, tough, soft, tough, soft, soft, tough, tough, soft, soft, tough, soft, tough, soft!

(of course a real god would find a way to give Tom Brady an average offensive line and show everyone how 'good' he really is)

God did, and he (they) won the superbowl. Heck, Ricky Proehl even played prophetic "Tonight, a dynasty is born".

(of course a real god would find a way to give Tom Brady an average offensive line and show everyone how 'good' he really is)

Yes, we get it, he's overrated. Like his baseball bretheren (D. Jeter), he manages to be both very good and overrated at the same time.

Now take it to Football Outsiders or something.

(of course a real god would find a way to give Tom Brady an average offensive line and show everyone how 'good' he really is)

Oh yeah? A real god would get these ants out of my pants. Hoo boy they sting!

While we're on the topic of God and Football...
If God cared, the Bills would have won the Super Bowl by now. And the Refs would have been able to see that the Titans' "Lateral" went forward. And O.J. wouldn't have killed anybody.

Now, back to Baseball: The Seattle Mariners were eliminated from AL West Contention last night, I think.

ok, I'm sorry.....Still anything bad for Boston or New York is good for the 99% of the country(except Favre nation) that ESPN doesn't care about.

Still anything bad for Boston or New York is good for the 99% of the country that ESPN doesn't care about.

And that 99% make up about 100,000 people.

It's not just a myth about Bobby Abreu and the wall, is it?
I saw the play at the gym this morning. I was so far away from the TV that it was hard to know what game the replay was from but when I saw how wussified the play was, I knew it had to be Abreu. I don't begrudge a guy not face planting himself into the wall on a line drive but on a fly, why he can't learn to run (hard) back to the wall, make contact with it and adjust?

That triple was a joke. It's kind of sad to see how badly Abreu struggles with any outfield wall. That should have been an out.

Depends on your definition of "should have been". Maybe Abreu could have caught it, but that ball was crushed, so from that perspective it "should have been" a hit.

And that 99% make up about 100,000 people.

I go by land mass. :)

Although California does make up a decent percentage of the population, you would never know it by ESPN of course since they don't air anything about the California teams unless it involves a former Red Sox.

The playoffs were gone as soon as Joba walked off the mound in Texas. three games against Baltimore didn't change that.

The second thought is actually a question: Does A-Rod always play that far off the line?

Shooty, I had the same thought back in June and raised it here (beginning at #45). I still think, in limited observation, that A-Rod seems to play too far off the line, but I know there is disagreement among those who almost certainly watch him more regularly. (This disagreement is less about where specifically A-Rod plays and more whether or not he plays out of position. RB and Cowboy may agree that he plays wide of the line, but feel that it doesn't hinder his defense at all. I'm not sure on that.)

Thanks Coop. It just seemed to me he play fairly extreme off the line last night. I could be wrong on this, though. I didn't get a good angle on the tube, but does his playing so far to the left allow Jeter to cheat a bit to the middle?

I didn't get a good angle on the tube, but does his playing so far to the left allow Jeter to cheat a bit to the middle?

Ew. I had considered that maybe he was naturally, unconsciously gravitating toward his old position. But if it's a conscious decision to compensate for Jeter's range... that's a pretty screwed up plan, given that you're conceding doubles to prevent singles. I have a hard time believing that Jeter is hurting them that badly from what I've seen, but if he is that's an ugly situation.

Ew. I had considered that maybe he was naturally, unconsciously gravitating toward his old position. But if it's a conscious decision to compensate for Jeter's range... that's a pretty screwed up plan, given that you're conceding doubles to prevent singles. I have a hard time believing that Jeter is hurting them that badly from what I've seen, but if he is that's an ugly situation.

I'm just guessing, really. The next time I go to a game I'll have to make a point of watching where they line up defensively.

The Yankees essentially have two choices this offseason:

1. Go for the big free agents to fill in some holes, and then hope that their aging veterans hold on to most of their value and stay uninjured, and their young players dispense with their adjustment phases (or funks, or whatever) and become quality regulars, again while staying off the DL, or

2. Do a fire sale to end all fire sales, completely reboot and rebuild, get rid of just about everybody above 30-which would include A-Rod, the one vet most likely to bring in blue-chip prospects.


Okay they have more than two options, some combination of both approaches, or something. I'll say this: if they go for option #1, yes they'll have maybe a 40% chance of reaching to postseason next year-but with a 40% chance that the team will go into a deep freefall and the franchise won't get back into contention until 2014 or so. If they go with option #2, they'll have a 10% chance of contending next year-but have a significant chance to get back to/near the top of the division by 2011 with a solid young core.

This year the Yankees have not enjoyed many significant contributions by players in their 20's: Cano's been slumping, Wang and now Joba have been injured, Nady's been fine since the trade but he's 29, Melky's in AAA. Contrast that with what the Sox (not to mention the Rays), who have recently replaced 2 30-somethings with younger players, have gotten from their 20-somethings, and there's no contest. If the Yankees' plan is to try to plug their many aging holes with more veterans, well that's probably not going to work. Trade them now while they still have some value (or let them walk-Abreu & Giambi-and hope you can get some picks for them). But that will be hard with a new stadium opening-difficult to justify all those high ticket prices while you're playing AAA players, or something like that.

The playoffs were gone as soon as Joba walked off the mound in Texas.

If the playoffs were gone as soon as a pitcher with a 6-3 career record walked off the mound with an injury, then $200 million doesn't buy as much as it used to. It was foolhardy for the Yankees to rely so heavily on three largely untested kid pitchers if making the playoffs was goal #1. The better argument is that the playoffs were gone as soon as Cashman talked Son of Stein out of Santana in the off-season.

Ew. I had considered that maybe he was naturally, unconsciously gravitating toward his old position. But if it's a conscious decision to compensate for Jeter's range... that's a pretty screwed up plan, given that you're conceding doubles to prevent singles. I have a hard time believing that Jeter is hurting them that badly from what I've seen, but if he is that's an ugly situation.

There are a lot more hits up the middle than down the line. Giving up a double to save two singles is a good play in most cases, since outs are more valuable than bases. I would guess most 3Bs play too close to the line compared to an optimal strategy. Way more balls go through the hole between third and short than past the third baseman down the line.

The highlight of the evening was the Red Sox d/bag in the upper RF stands who got dragged out by the cops after lipping off and hassling a decent-looking woman ... just prior to his exit, he popped the "Red Sox" on his jerseyed chest at the heckling crowd like a dork for the ages. That enjoyable spectacle was followed in short order by a woman in roughly the same area who got into it with a cop, ended up screaming uncontrollably at three of them, spit in one of their faces and got cuffed up and dragged out, likely to jail.

After that the Cute Little Fella did ok, Veras was good hittin' and the Yankee season under Corporal Girardi continued its steady grind downhill.

Top grade stuff.

The highlight of the evening was the Red Sox d/bag in the upper RF stands who got dragged out by the cops after lipping off and hassling a decent-looking woman

I was thinking the Pedroia grand slam was the highlight. Just a matter of perspective, I suppose.

If the playoffs were gone as soon as a pitcher with a 6-3 career record walked off the mound with an injury, then $200 million doesn't buy as much as it used to. It was foolhardy for the Yankees to rely so heavily on three largely untested kid pitchers if making the playoffs was goal #1. The better argument is that the playoffs were gone as soon as Cashman talked Son of Stein out of Santana in the off-season.

no, the playoffs were a quarter gone when Posada was lost, another quarter gone when Wang was lost, another quarter when Matsui went down for 6 weeks, and fully gone when Joba went out. Yes, the Yankees took a bunch of risks in the offseason, almost none of which paid off, but how they spent their money was not the issue.

Wow, more fight in the Sox fans in the RF bleachers than from the hometown 9.

There are a lot more hits up the middle than down the line. Giving up a double to save two singles is a good play in most cases, since outs are more valuable than bases. I would guess most 3Bs play too close to the line compared to an optimal strategy. Way more balls go through the hole between third and short than past the third baseman down the line.

This would be interesting to look into.

The highlight of the evening was the Red Sox d/bag in the upper RF stands who got dragged out by the cops after lipping off and hassling a decent-looking woman

If you were watching tv, the highlight was Papelbon's reaction to Pedroia's slam. He's a great closer, but c'mon Sawx fans, you have to admit he's super dooshy. Michael Kay didn't take the bait, but, for once, I would have been on the Kay-ster's side if he had launched into a rant.

2. Do a fire sale to end all fire sales, completely reboot and rebuild, get rid of just about everybody above 30-which would include A-Rod, the one vet most likely to bring in blue-chip prospects.

Everybody (and their mothers) has a NTC (of the veterans): ARod, Jeter, Possada, MO, and Matsui are all completely protected. I don't see them agreeing to head elswhere to meet Hank's whims.

Which means that it's option #1. It will be interesting to see if Cashman & Hal's interest in reigning in spending wins vs Hankenstein's desire to destroy all spending limits with his nuclear fire breath.

Edit:

If you were watching tv, the highlight was Papelbon's reaction to Pedroia's slam. He's a great closer, but c'mon Sawx fans, you have to admit he's super dooshy. Michael Kay didn't take the bait, but, for once, I would have been on the Kay-ster's side if he had launched into a rant.

Paps was just expressing what we were all feeling. Perhaps you'd like to have a discussion about whos fist pumps are classy and driven by honest emotion flowing from competition and who's just an a$$hole?

I was thinking the Pedroia grand slam was the highlight. Just a matter of perspective, I suppose.


No, the highlight of the evening was the Red Sox d/bag hitting on a woman out of his league at about 5.5, her telling the cops, him getting booted, and him "mocking" the Yankee fans heaping him with laughs and ridicule with one of the dorkiest moves of all-time.

Michael Kay sounds like he's on the verge of tears half the time during the series.

I think the Yankees should keep it simple: sign Sabathia, being back Mussina, then make moves on the edges. Give Cabrera and the young SPs more time.

The issue is whether to sign Teixeira. I can see a case either way.

I had considered that maybe he was naturally, unconsciously gravitating toward his old position.

The Yanks have played with the third baseman shading away from the line since like forever. At least since 2000, probably before then. It's one of the reasons defensive stats that assume standard positioning are a bit out of whack when it comes to the left side of the infield for the Yanks.

Okay they have more than two options, some combination of both approaches, or something. I'll say this: if they go for option #1, yes they'll have maybe a 40% chance of reaching to postseason next year-but with a 40% chance that the team will go into a deep freefall and the franchise won't get back into contention until 2014 or so. If they go with option #2, they'll have a 10% chance of contending next year-but have a significant chance to get back to/near the top of the division by 2011 with a solid young core.

Where in the world did you get these numbers? What if they think they have an 80% chance of making the playoffs if the reup with Free Agents and don't sell off their veterans (which really amounts to Damon and Matsui). And what exactly do you expect them to get for these guys that will give them a solid young core more than what they already have?

If the Yankees' plan is to try to plug their many aging holes with more veterans, well that's probably not going to work.

Yeah, it's worked terribly the last 15 years. If the Yanks sign a good corner bat (there are two good ones under the age of thirty on the market this year) and a frontline starter this offseason, they'll look pretty good coming into the 09 season.

The better argument is that the playoffs were gone as soon as Cashman talked Son of Stein out of Santana in the off-season.

It's really not hard to envision the opening day roster making the playoffs. The projection systems all had the Yanks in the playoffs IIRC. They weren't locks, but they were certainly a good bet. A better argument is that the playoffs were gone when all the injuries piled AND the failure of the youth across the board, not just the pitchers, dragged the team to the depths of playing above .500 ball but not making the playoffs.

no, the playoffs were a quarter gone when Posada was lost, another quarter gone when Wang was lost, another quarter when Matsui went down for 6 weeks, and fully gone when Joba went out. Yes, the Yankees took a bunch of risks in the offseason, almost none of which paid off, but how they spent their money was not the issue.

This.

That's life in a competitive league. It's very rare to put together a team so good they don't need any breaks to make the playoffs. Assuming the Yankees leverage their money well this offseason, there's no reason to think they can't compete in 2009. Boston will still be good, but they have issues of their own, and Tampa will probably regress somewhat.

No, the highlight of the evening was the Red Sox d/bag hitting on a woman out of his league at about 5.5, her telling the cops, him getting booted, and him "mocking" the Yankee fans heaping him with laughs and ridicule with one of the dorkiest moves of all-time.

I suppose you take your highlights where you can get them. As I said, a matter of perspective.

If the playoffs were gone as soon as a pitcher with a 6-3 career record walked off the mound with an injury, then $200 million doesn't buy as much as it used to.

It was more of a last straw situation. They had already lost Wang and Posada for the seasons. Hughes wasn't healthy all year, and Kennedy wasn't ready. Matsui was questionable to come back, etc.

Their last hope was the offense turns it up and they ride the backs of Moose and Joba, if they could squeak into the playoffs, Maybe Wang comes back. When Joba went down, to be replaced by more Rasner or Ponson, that was the end of it.

Paps was just expressing what we were all feeling. Perhaps you'd like to have a discussion about whos fist pumps are classy and driven by honest emotion flowing from competition and who's just an a$$hole?

Who wouldn't be able to stop themselves from being a doosh when you've just extended your wild card lead to two-and-a-half?

The highlight of the evening was the Red Sox d/bag in the upper RF stands who got dragged out by the cops after lipping off and hassling a decent-looking woman

I knew we should've tried to keep Jolin out of there.

I suppose you take your highlights where you can get them. As I said, a matter of perspective.

The tinitis in my ears is just going away from the three women (who, by the way, vastly overrate themselves) screaming "Come on, PAHHHPIIIIIIIIII" and "YOOOKKKKK," and all the other cute little chants over and over and over and over again. Yeah, we get it: you're Red Sox fans.

I can't imagine they squeal like that at Fenway, or the team would be lucky to draw a million-five.

Then, again, maybe they do.

Who wouldn't be able to stop themselves from being a doosh when you've just extended your wild card lead to two-and-a-half?

Papelbon was viciously booed in the ASG when completely innocuous comments he made regarding closing the game were taken out of context and blown up to insane proportions by one of the NY shiitrags. I thought his reaction last night was pretty natural given the situation.

We all know Papelbon is as dumb as ten dogs. Excepting sophisticated behavior from him is a mug's game. He reacted the way you'd expect a fan to react.

We all know Papelbon is as dumb as ten dogs. Excepting sophisticated behavior from him is a mug's game. He reacted the way you'd expect a fan to react.

I'll remember this the next time people get in a tizzy over Joba's punching and strutting after a big strikeout.

Paps was just expressing what we were all feeling. Perhaps you'd like to have a discussion about whos fist pumps are classy and driven by honest emotion flowing from competition and who's just an a$$hole?

OK! I've already started, of course. Papelbon=dooshy. I actually don't mind Jeter's fist pumps. Also, no one else on the Sawx bothers me. Other than Papelbon, they seem like a decent group of guys. And it's not that Papelbon isn't a decent guys, he's just dooshy. Or maybe dopey is more accurate. He's like the Richard Nixon of MLB when it comes to body language. I would argue that Jeter is the exact opposite of this. Jeter, as much as I dislike the Yankees, seems like an exceptionally cool guy.

I can't imagine they squeal like that at Fenway, or the team would be lucky to draw a million-five.

Then, again, maybe they do.

Maybe I was just lucky, but I thought the fans at Fenway were great when I was there. It's been 3 years, though, so maybe things have changed.

just curious, but why aren't people talking about the Tigers with the gloom-and-doom language they're applying to the Yankees? Aging lineup, unmovable contracts, thin pitching (even thinner than the Yankees when you look at the bullpen and prospects) - they look to be in even worse shape going forward. Is it just that the Tigers flopped right out of the gate instead of stumbling along for 5 months?

Aging lineup, unmovable contracts, thin pitching (even thinner than the Yankees when you look at the bullpen and prospects) - they look to be in even worse shape going forward. Is it just that the Tigers flopped right out of the gate instead of stumbling along for 5 months?

I think that's it partly--the gloom and doom articles have already been written. Also, the Yankees haven't missed the playoffs in forever. A lot of schadenfreude going on right now. The Tigers aren't hated enough for this.

Is it just that the Tigers flopped right out of the gate instead of stumbling along for 5 months?

Partly, but also it's the Tigers. People don't get that same delicious sense of schadenfreude watching the Tigers fail.

Edit: Curse you Shooty!

Is it just that the Tigers flopped right out of the gate instead of stumbling along for 5 months?

It's probably because the Yankees have been great for 15 straight years or so, while the Tigers have been good for just a couple. But yes, your point stands. The Tigers will be a mess going forward.

EDIT: Just wanted to add "schadenfreude," in order to keep up the trend.

Edit: Curse you Shooty!

I'm doing the Papelbon victory face right now. Oh yeah!

I would argue that Jeter is the exact opposite of this. Jeter, as much as I dislike the Yankees, seems like an exceptionally cool guy.

Eh. He seems more boring than ten cats to me.

I'm doing the Papelbon victory face right now. Oh yeah!

In your case it's forgivable, since you're not exactly known for winning these posting races.

Maybe I was just lucky, but I thought the fans at Fenway were great when I was there.

I was at Fenway a couple weeks ago and the fans were great. There was a collection of young couples in the row in front of us who were just having an excellent time the entire game. The only irritating things: first, they beckoned loudly and often for The Wave (I don't think I've ever been to a game at Fenway that didn't include The Wave, and that should really stop soon); and second, deep into their fourth round of beers, their rendition of "Sweet Caroline" was a bit over the top (noting that I also hate the song*, which certainly plays into the reaction). Otherwise, the whole park experience was excellent, even in the face of a defeat to the Blue Jays.


* I'm still trying to find a stadium that doesn't routinely play a song I hate as some kind of ritual. "Sweet Caroline,""Cotton Eye Joe," and "Thank God I'm A Country Boy" are wielded criminally, in my opinion.

In your case it's forgivable, since you're not exactly known for winning these posting races.

True. I still have to watch my fingers when I type.

Yes, we get it, he's overrated. Like his baseball bretheren (D. Jeter), he manages to be both very good and overrated at the same time.

Now take it to Football Outsiders or something.

FO already identified this unexpected parallelism, prior to banishing all such discussions to the famous "Irrational Brady/Manning Thread."

Tampa will probably regress somewhat.

Mister Price says hello.

Tampa will probably regress somewhat.

Mister Price says hello.

Yeah, why will Tampa regress? They'll have Price, an entire year of Longoria plus a little postseason cash to play with. By all accounts they have one of the best farm systems in the game. I can see the Rays having a run like the 2001-2006 A's.

Mister Price says hello.

He should say hi to Mister Hughes and Mister Buchholz. They may have something to teach him about expectations from rookies.

Well, they have had a ton of magic pixie dust this season. Gabe Gross game winning homers and opponents' game tying homers caught against the fence by leaping, non-descript outfielders.

More worrisome than that, from Tampa's point of view has to be Kazmir. Something's wrong with him. He's not throwing quite as hard and nibbling to the point that he almost never gets through more than 5 innings. He was a bit like this before but this looks like the season we'll look back on as the start of his injury troubles.

If the Yankees' plan is to try to plug their many aging holes with more veterans, well that's probably not going to work.

Yeah, it's worked terribly the last 15 years.

It hasn't worked so hot for the past 7 years. Prior to that they didn't have many aging holes to fill, and/or they had young talent to fill it, making it a decent strategy. And it's not that the players added were all old when they were signed; rather, a bunch of them were given lengthy contracts that would lead to the Yankees having a lot of old players today. That, and they have given up too slowly on "their own". (Though, admittedly, last offseason their three major FA acquisitions were their own players, who were by far the best players available at their positions.)

This year they had young talent to fill some of the spots, but they were injured and/or ineffective. That's a step in the right direction (the young talent, not the injuries/ineffectiveness). But they didn't have much depth otherwise, and as a result they needed a lot of breaks to go their way.

It hasn't worked so hot for the past 7 years.

6 playoff appearances and a World series appearance isn't a good run?

rather, a bunch of them were given lengthy contracts that would lead to the Yankees having a lot of old players today.

Giambi is the 2nd best hitter on the team. Moose was one of the best pitchers on the team when his first contract was up. He is the best pitcher on the team now. Jeter isn't playing great, but he's a long way away from hurting the team. Neither Damon or Matsui is particularly old and Damon is playing very well this season. None of these guys who were given long contracts that take them until their old are hurting the Yanks, with the exception of Posada, who really needed to be re-signed despite the risks.

That, and they have given up too slowly on "their own".

Well, Bernie hurt them, but they still made the playoffs with him and Pettitte, whom I do not like, has hardly killed them although they could have spent his 16 million a lot better than they did.

But they didn't have much depth otherwise, and as a result they needed a lot of breaks to go their way.

Which is why the need to go out and get that talent on the free agent market. Their young talent is far more valuable to them than cash. There are some youngish guys on the market who fill their needs perfectly. Signing free agents hasn't killed them, being stupid about which ones they sign has hurt them but in the end, nothing has really ruined them. Since 01, they have traded or bought old big name talent and once they haven't made the playoffs. The only way the system looks like a failure is if you expect them to make the playoffs every year and the system has been revamped to make that less likely (which I am support). On top of that, they seem committed to spending on young players to make themselves less susceptible to the depth issues that hurt them this year. But that can't happen over night.

They may have something to teach him about expectations from rookies.

but the Rays aren't depending on Price...he just offers the potential of another killer arm.

Though the Rays have been 'lucky' with their current record, even without the luck they were still playing better than the Yankees. The difference is they should be even better next season than this year even with the same cast...the Yankees aren't as likely to be able to say the same.

With Pettite a year older if he's even in the rotation, mussina's coach turning back into a pumpkin, Jeter a year older, Posada a year older and not catching, Giambi's numbers gone, Abreu gone or regressing, Damon a year older, Matsui a year older, Pudge?...sure, there's a chance the Yankees could be better in 2008, but it's no 'sure thing', or even close to it, even with Sabathia and/or Tex. They may be healthier, but that might not even be enough to make them better.

You changed the question, Bob. When you put up the snarky, "Mr. Price says hello", it was in response to whether the Rays will regress next year, not whether they will be better than the Yankees.

The Rays' bullpen has pitched out of their mind, and they have only had seven starts by anyone outside their rotation (most of that being Kazmir to start the year). If these two trends continue, then they will be better.

Which offensive player do you expect to be better next year, besides Longoria (who is already at a pretty high level)? I think Upton's future has to be questioned a bit.

If he's healthy, Crawford will be significantly more productive.

I believe the Rays will regress next year simply because they'll finish 2008 approximately 30 games better than they finished in 2007, barring a Mets-like collapse. Yes, there are structural reasons they've improved, and I do believe their talent level is such that they are a legitimately good team, but a LOT has to go right to make a jump that big. I'm comfortable betting the Rays won't win 96 games in 2009.

Where in the world did you get these numbers? What if they think they have an 80% chance of making the playoffs if the reup with Free Agents and don't sell off their veterans (which really amounts to Damon and Matsui). And what exactly do you expect them to get for these guys that will give them a solid young core more than what they already have?

I was going to put a qualifier on the percentages I used, because I just knew someone would quibble and cavil to no end, but decided the hell with it. Just starting points for discussion, nothing more.

There is of course the 10/5 thing which certainly complicates any possible trades of these players (thanks OCD SS).

As a Red Sox fan I would be overjoyed to see them go for Tex and CC. This assumes of course that someone else doesn't want them and/or Tex and CC wouldn't be perfectly happy settling for less money elsewhere. The problem is that, with more primo players being locked up long-term, there are less star-quality free agents available than before. Which means you can base your strategy on signing the best FAs available if you like, but that strategy may not be as viable as it once was. Which means getting top players through trades, and well we know that necessarily involves trading away young prospects like Tabata, which will just exacerbate the age problem this team has.

You get a bunch of old guys, some will hold their value (Giambi, Damon, tho his D has looked pretty horrid to me), some will get injured (Matsui, Posada), some will decline slowly (Jeter), and some will decline badly (Abreu). That's been the case for over 100 years in this game, and it will continue to be the case. Yankees fans, and their front office, can continue to believe the fantasy that guys in their mid-late 30's can collectively hold on to their value enough to keep the team in contention, year from year, but it doesn't work like that and the odds are long.

Yes, they've made the playoffs all through this decade (so far), but they've clearly been on a slow decline ever since 2000. No pennant since '03, haven't made it out of the first round since '04. They can acknowledge the obvious, punt (radically or conservatively), and make plans to rebuild for a fresh run through the next decade, or continue recycling veterans, which might work, but which might also backfire badly, and leave them staring up at the Sox and Rays for the next half-dozen years.

Having said all that it does appear to me that the Yankees development system has been seriously revamped, and that a new bunch of stars and superstars may start to appear in the next 1-4 years, but in the meantime it's going to get pretty ugly I think.

They can acknowledge the obvious, punt (radically or conservatively), and make plans to rebuild for a fresh run through the next decade,

How would they even go about doing this? Virtually everybody on the team has a no trade clause, has very little trade value due to age/salary issues, or both. The only guys who this doesn't apply to are the young players they're supposed to be stockpiling to win with. People are quibbling and caviling because the argument doesn't make sense. At the end of the 2009 season, the only old guys still on the team will be Jeter, A-Rod, Mariano and Posada.

The Tigers will be a mess going forward.

Ehh, maybe, maybe not. Cabrera, Granderson, Verlander, is the makings of a good core. Galarraga and Joyce look like nice pieces. There are Porcello, and a few interesting prospects. It's not a great division. With some good moves (like trading Maggs for a young infielder or starter), they could easily contend in the next year or two.

When you put up the snarky, "Mr. Price says hello", it was in response to whether the Rays will regress next year,

Snarky?

That wasn't meant to be snarky, just short and sweet.

The Tigers will be a mess going forward.

I think the 2008 performances of the Twins, Indians, Rays and White Sox are good reminders that it can be hard to tell how a team will do going forward.

Who on the Rays will be better, you ask?

Well, let's see, they'll have Crawford back...and their offensive roster currently lists guys who are 24, 28, 22, 27, 26, 27, 35, 28, 31, 26, and 24. I'd say there's room for improvement there. With no projected starting pitchers over 26 on the current roster, I'd say there's room for even more improvement there, wouldn't you?

With their farm system, I don't see them falling off a lot on paper next year.

Young pitchers do not continually improve on some golden arc. They regress. They get hurt.

I think the 2008 performances of the Twins, Indians, Rays and White Sox are good reminders that it can be hard to tell how a team will do going forward.

Can't argue with this. With the Rays, it seems most of us thought they were going to be a good team in 2009. I don't see any reason to be pessimistic about them just because they arrived a year early. Any time can lay an egg, but there looks to be more about the Rays to be optimistic about now and going forward than to be pessimistic about.

And man, it occurs to me, if Krivsky doesn't happen to be gm of the Reds, Josh Hamilton would most likely still be a Ray as no one else would have taken a Rule V flyer on him. That would have been insane.

And man, it occurs to me, if Krivsky doesn't happen to be gm of the Reds, Josh Hamilton would most likely still be a Ray as no one else would have taken a Rule V flyer on him. That would have been insane.

Nope. The Cubs took him in the Rule V, and Krivsky quickly acquired him.

on the plus side, the Yankees just had their second walk-off victory against Papelbon of the season. So the season wasn't a total failure!

With the Rays, it seems most of us thought they were going to be a good team in 2009. I don't see any reason to be pessimistic about them just because they arrived a year early.

As was noted earlier, the issue is not whether they will be good, but whether they can improve upon (or come very close to) 96 or so wins. I think the odds are against them doing that, because I think they are approaching a ceiling on their talent, and the odds are that they will not have as much success in the bullpen or rotation next year. I will acknowledge the odds have been wrong before.

Well, let's see, they'll have Crawford back...and their offensive roster currently lists guys who are 24, 28, 22, 27, 26, 27, 35, 28, 31, 26, and 24. I'd say there's room for improvement there. With no projected starting pitchers over 26 on the current roster, I'd say there's room for even more improvement there, wouldn't you?

Age is important for hitters, but I just don't see anything to suggest vast improvement from Iwamura, Bartlett, Navarro or Gross. Pena is in his prime, and can likely hold his production. These guys all seem to be near their talent ceilings. Again, I'm not trying to predict doom and gloom, but the breakout potential seems limited.

We all know Papelbon is as dumb as ten dogs.

Can someone covert this to Lasordas for me please? Thanks much.

The Yankees essentially have two choices this offseason:

1. Go for the big free agents to fill in some holes, and then hope that their aging veterans hold on to most of their value and stay uninjured, and their young players dispense with their adjustment phases (or funks, or whatever) and become quality regulars, again while staying off the DL, or

2. Do a fire sale to end all fire sales, completely reboot and rebuild, get rid of just about everybody above 30-which would include A-Rod, the one vet most likely to bring in blue-chip prospects.


Okay they have more than two options, some combination of both approaches, or something. I'll say this: if they go for option #1, yes they'll have maybe a 40% chance of reaching to postseason next year-but with a 40% chance that the team will go into a deep freefall and the franchise won't get back into contention until 2014 or so. If they go with option #2, they'll have a 10% chance of contending next year-but have a significant chance to get back to/near the top of the division by 2011 with a solid young core.

None of this seems likely or necessary at all to me. Why can't the Yankees simply add, say, Sabathia and Teixira? 5/100 apiece, or whatever they need to pay. This makes the Yankees very strong contenders in 2009 without blocking any young talent.

5/100 apiece, or whatever they need to pay. This makes the Yankees very strong contenders in 2009 without blocking any young talent.

How do you feel about paying 8/$180 for Teixeira and 7/$160 for CC? On one hand you've got someone who looks like he's a better pitcher than Santana, and doesn't require any giving up any talent (other than that pesky draft pick) to sign. On the other hand you have Scott Boras...

How do you feel about paying 8/$180 for Teixeira and 7/$160 for CC? On one hand you've got someone who looks like he's a better pitcher than Santana, and doesn't require any giving up any talent (other than that pesky draft pick) to sign. On the other hand you have Scott Boras...

Hard to argue that those prices are unreasonable, since the market's almost always crazier than I imagine it can be. Since we're talking Yankee dollars, the figures you used actually make sense for them to pay, since it only takes them into Teixeira's and CSab's mid-30s. Better than paying for the Rod's nursing home years.

Lost in all the hand-wringing about signing free-agents and sending franchises into years-long tailspins is that if the free-agents are actually stars and not old, it just make the team better, albeit expensive. For the Yankees, it's not too expensive unless they say it is.

The fact that all five of those 24-26 starters have been healthy and effective basically all year--only 7 starts not made by the Rays' big five--that number will likely triple next year, just due to normal luck. Teams like the Rays almost always regress--it doesn't say a lot about their longterm prospects, though......