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Sunday, November 22, 2009

NYT: Keri: To Hang In, a Series Winner Must Learn to Let Go

Screw Udny Yule…UdNY Rule!

The Yankees face another regression-related situation. They had an old roster in 2009. Two of the top three starters, five of the nine starting batters as well as the Hall of Fame closer were 33 or older.

It is possible that 35-year-old Hideki Matsui’s knee problems are behind him and that 28-homer seasons will remain the norm. It is conceivable that Johnny Damon’s tying a career high for homers at 35 (he turned 36 on Nov. 5) means we should expect a big power threat for the next half-decade. It is imaginable that Andy Pettitte, a 15-year veteran who has flirted with retirement in recent years and has nearly 3,000 regular-season innings under his belt, will keep winning games well into his late 30s and beyond.

But it is not likely. Few players are more likely to see a regression in their numbers than those getting well into their 30s who have suddenly had a big bounce-back season. The Yankees caught lightning in a bottle with Matsui, Damon and Pettitte, who are free agents, as well as incumbent 30-somethings like Jorge Posada. Even (gasp) Mariano Rivera cannot fight Father Time forever.

The 2002 Angels are the prime example for teams that ignored the risks of regression. And history is littered with World Series winners who grew complacent and paid the price the next season.

This off-season, if the Yankees want to repeat, they should try to add younger players. By doing that, they will also avoid the trap of complacency.

Repoz Posted: November 22, 2009 at 01:30 AM | 20 comment(s) | Bookmark
Related News: General, History, Sabermetrics, LA Angels, NY Yankees

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1. Walt Davis Posted: November 22, 2009 at 02:04 AM (#3393698)

Even (gasp) Mariano Rivera cannot fight Father Time forever.

I'll believe that when I see Father Time get around on a cut fastball.

What Keri says is true, especially from a sabermetric perspective. And they Yanks can easily walk away from Damon, Matsui and Pettitte.

The question then is "and do what?" Bay will be 31 and Holliday 30 -- at best short-term solutions to the "we need to get younger" issue. John Lackey will also be 31. And they are locked into Posada, Jeter, AROD and even Teixeira will be 30 and Burnett 33 (though they do have lots of young pitching).

2. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: November 22, 2009 at 02:05 AM (#3393701)

Even (gasp) Mariano Rivera cannot fight Father Time forever.

Wanna bet?

3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 22, 2009 at 02:26 AM (#3393712)

No reason to walk away from Pettitte, he's willing to go year to year on contracts.

I'd look to replace Damon and Matsui. Holliday, depending on the price/length, or maybe Mike Cameron for LF, and someone like Branyan for DH.

4. Gamingboy Posted: November 22, 2009 at 02:32 AM (#3393714)

I'll believe that when I see Father Time get around on a cut fastball.

Classic.

5. McCoy Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:24 AM (#3393736)

The question then is "and do what?" Bay will be 31 and Holliday 30 -- at best short-term solutions to the "we need to get younger" issue.

With the Yankee's money "short term solutions" can be the perennial answer and indeed it has been the perennial answer for over a decade now.

6. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:25 AM (#3393737)

The question then is "and do what?" Bay will be 31 and Holliday 30

Can Montero play LF? If not, Holliday for LF and Matsui as a bridge to Montero at DH might work.

7. Tripon Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:30 AM (#3393740)

Not this off season, but Mauer at the end of 2011 will be 28.

8. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken (Dewey is a slacker) Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:59 AM (#3393748)

See, what the Yankees need to do is sign some players who don't get older.

9. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 22, 2009 at 05:10 AM (#3393777)

See, what the Yankees need to do is sign some players who don't get older.

Matsui went full zombie this season.

10. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: November 22, 2009 at 05:42 AM (#3393782)

Actually, what I dislike about this article is the fact that it could have been written just as well last off-season, with Yankee players one year younger.

Ultimately, age is important but lightning strikes teams with older players too.... (except for the 2008 Yankees, where Mike Mussina's wonderful swan song was for naught, but I digress).

11. catomi01 Posted: November 22, 2009 at 05:46 AM (#3393783)

this article could (and has been) written just about every off-season since the turn of the century...I distinctly recall BP running a story about how the Blue Jays and Red Sox would have their chance to take a spot on top of the East before Nick Johnson and Drew Henson rallied around Jeter....well, drew henson's not around, but even the Yankees off-years since then have been pretty good, built around older players for most of the run.

12. TVerik, AKA Snoopy Snoopy Poop Dog Posted: November 22, 2009 at 01:44 PM (#3393822)

Aren't Po and Mo up after next year?

13. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:43 PM (#3393857)

[12] Yes and no. Well actually, no and yes.

14. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:46 PM (#3393860)

Here's a picture of me when I was younger

15. Walt Davis Posted: November 22, 2009 at 06:05 PM (#3393966)

With the Yankee's money "short term solutions" can be the perennial answer and indeed it has been the perennial answer for over a decade now.

Absolutely but that counters Keri's basic thesis that teams shouldn't get too old. If the Yanks generally only need be concerned about papering over cracks for 2-3 years, then they can (often) do so with good players in their 30s. I'm not sure they wouldn't be better off bringing Damon back for 1-2 years (depending on what you can get him to sign for) and seeing what develops on the trade and FA markets and in their system in hopes of finding a good longer-term solution to LF (e.g. Carl Crawford could be an FA next year) rather than making a huge commitment to Holliday.

16. Howie B. Posted: November 22, 2009 at 06:30 PM (#3393975)

There are some pretty easy ways for the Yankees to start getting younger, although not necessarily better. Nothing's gonna happen at SS, 3B and closer right now, so take those off the table. And 1B, 2B, CF and RF (assuming Swisher stays) are all not old.

C: Have Cervelli caddy for Posada; put Montero at AAA. Once we're safely past the Super-Two cutoff, bring up Montero to caddy for Posada and package Cervelli as trade bait. Let Montero work his way in under Posada the same way Posada worked in under Girardi.

SP: Commit to Joba and Hughes in the rotation. That locks in 4 starters relatively young collectively - CC, AJ, Joba, Hughes. You can then bring back Pettitte on another incentive-laden one year deal, while having Kennedy and Wang in AAA as fall backs. In addition, you can look late to some 2nd tier FAs who might fall through the cracks.

That leaves LF and possibly the bullpen as the only places where "getting younger" is an immediate issue.

This seems like a process that can be handled over the course of a few seasons and doesn't need to be finished overnight.

17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 22, 2009 at 07:12 PM (#3393989)

C: Have Cervelli caddy for Posada; put Montero at AAA. Once we're safely past the Super-Two cutoff, bring up Montero to caddy for Posada and package Cervelli as trade bait. Let Montero work his way in under Posada the same way Posada worked in under Girardi.

SP: Commit to Joba and Hughes in the rotation. That locks in 4 starters relatively young collectively - CC, AJ, Joba, Hughes. You can then bring back Pettitte on another incentive-laden one year deal, while having Kennedy and Wang in AAA as fall backs. In addition, you can look late to some 2nd tier FAs who might fall through the cracks.

That leaves LF and possibly the bullpen as the only places where "getting younger" is an immediate issue.

This seems like a process that can be handled over the course of a few seasons and doesn't need to be finished overnight.

Sound plan. Except I'd probably give Montero a full season in AAA to learn to catch better. I'd start the apprenticeship next year.

18. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 22, 2009 at 07:55 PM (#3394012)

Stashing Wang at AAA won't be easy. They either have to non-tender him and convince him to sign a minor league deal, or they have to get him through waivers and convince him to accept an outright assignment.

19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 22, 2009 at 08:03 PM (#3394014)

Stashing Wang at AAA won't be easy.

Yeah. I think he's a non-tender and goes somewhere where it will be easier to make the rotation.

20. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 22, 2009 at 08:10 PM (#3394016)

package Cervelli as trade bait.

I'd like to keep Cervelli around. He's serviceable depth with two(?) more option years and I would like the Yanks to have a legitimate catch and throw guy as a possible defensive sub until Romine is ready.

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NYT: Keri: To Hang In, a Series Winner Must Learn to Let Go

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