Yawn. If you expand the sample to the beginning of the season, the Yankees will be 13.5 games out by July 4.

Right, Murray...because they'll be playing no one but the White Sox & Pirates from now until then...

If the Sox hadn't tampered with JD Drew this would never have happened

The Times personified. Old, clueless, and useless

>>But while I am not a fan of either team, I do root for a good story

A telling admission. Does this extend to MVP voting as well, as many here have speculated?

Given the amount of nonsense Chass has spewed just this year, I wouldn't be surprised if Seth Mnookin is walking around with the sort of never-ending boner usually associated with an adverse reaction to Cialis.

If you read the whole article, it's not at all clear what Chass thinks he's doing. OTOH, he can't be as stupid as the excerpted quotation makes him sound. Of course he doesn't mean that, and later in the article he seems to disavow it (he calls catching the Sox again a "Lightning strike"). And yet, OTOH, what the f is he doing? He seems to take the "projection" rather seriously. And the other analysis in the article is at times irrelevant, at times relevant, and overall just odd. It's a very strange piece. In fact, I think it's just a piece of crap, ultimately. I'm surprised that this is published by the Times. Really: what was the article about? What skill does it evince?

I don't know about you folks, but I'm again moving towards hitting the panic button.

wait...so small sample sizes don't apply to arod, but they apply to the yankees as a whole?

JC, I posted the article just to bait the bear, but you probably knew that anyway.

As to why Chass wrote it and why the Times published it, those of us who read the Times sports columns out of habit know that it's required by their contracts to goose the Yanks-Red Sox brawl at least once a week. It's kind of tough to come up with too much original material when
you're forced to cover the same topic over and over again.

And the rather disgusting irony for us Yankee fans here in DC is that these columns make the Washington edition every day, while the midweek coverage of the actual Yankee games is more often omitted than not, even when the game ends well before the Washington edition's deadline. But I guess I shouldn't be too surprised, since if you look at their well-hyped new Sunday magazine called "Play," you're lucky to get one baseball article an issue.

It's a cautionary tale...

Does this extend to MVP voting as well, as many here have speculated?

I'm pretty sure the Times doesn't allow its writers to vote for the MVP.

but I have a better analysis...

the red sox just finished their first of 3 west coast road trips this season (2 this month). The Yankees have exactly 1 west coast road trip the entire year. Now, I personally define west coast road trip as two consecutive series on the road against AL/NL West teams not in texas (so that includes colorado and arizona - besides, adding texas won't hurt or help either team).

Plus, the yankees' sole west coast trip is against colorado and san francisco...talk about cake walk.

And lastly, the red sox play 6 away series in west coast stadiums (including a 4 gamer in oakland), to the yankees' 5 (no 4 game series).

And more evidence to the scheduling gods trying to get the yankees back to the promised land:
4 game series:
Yankees: vs Sea, @CWS, vs Min, @TB, vs Tor, @KC, vs Det, @Det, vs Tor
Red Sox: @Oak, vs Tex, vs Tor, vs CWS, @ Cle, @ CWS, @ Bal, vs Min
so if you cancel out CWS and Det for both teamsn (similar caliber teams, going into the season), and the same teams from both, you come up with:
Yankees: vs Sea, @CWS, @TB, @KC, vs Tor, vs TB
Red Sox: @Oak, vs Tex, @ Cle, @ Bal
meaning the Yankees have 20 cakewalk games (and only 4 vs contenders) vs the Red Sox having 8 cakewalk games and 4 games against contenders.

July will be the telling month for this race. (forgetting the last game of the oak series on july 1 and the first game of the cws series on july 31), the yankees have 23 games against pretenders (inc minny - i know, barely a pretender), tampa, toronto, kc, and baltimore), including thet last 19 games, whereas they only face the angels for 3 games.

The Red Sox will have 15 games against pretenders (inc 2 tex, tb, tor, kc), but 11 games vs contenders (det, cws, cle), including 8 straight against cws and cle.

i don't know how this adds up, but strength of schedule is way in the yankees favor for july, as well as may, and june.

April and August cancel each other out, and the yankees have the advantage in Sept too. so by my count, the yankees' strenght of schedule favors them in 5 out of 6 months (by counting number of series of contenders vs. pretenders, not counting home/away).

I personally define west coast road trip as two consecutive series on the road against AL/NL West teams not in texas

How is it an advantage to make west coast trips to play a single series, which the Yankees do several times? The quick turn-around is more disruptive than playing a larger number of games in the same time zone.

Where Boston has had the big advantage is being virtually injury free thus far this season. Sometimes you get an entire season like that, but you can't really count on it.

ok, i re-counted april and that's to teh red sox favor, so it's 2 months to the sox and 4 months to the yankees.

but here's the more telling numbers:

games vs: contenders home/away (total), pretenders home/away (total)
nyy: 31/32, 50/49
bos: 34/33, 47/48

so while you can say, it's "only" 4 games (and my definition of pretenders vs. contenders could be a bit dubious: i have ari and min as pretenders), the yankees still appear to have a weaker schedule. at the very least, they have the longer stretch of the weaker schedule (may-july).

July and August will be the telling months for whether or not the yankees make the playoffs...

How is it an advantage to make west coast trips to play a single series, which the Yankees do several times? The quick turn-around is more disruptive than playing a larger number of games in the same time zone.

afaik, players have always dreaded opposite coast road trips. think about it: you take two six hour flights to get there and come back (albeit pampered flights =P), along with shorter flights inbetween cities on your trip. whereas with individual series trips, you take multiple short flights, and only one long flight. the shorter flights are much easier on the body.

plus, there's dealing with the time zone change. if you're only there for three nights, then you can just fight through it, unadjusted (after all, you just came from another time zone). but when you're out there for 6-7 nights, your body has no choice but to adjust, and right when you get adjusted, it's time to head home.

i've never heard of a player excited for an opposite coast road trip (unless they're from the opposite coast. even then, they still realize the trip is not fun).

Yeah, but the Yankees have to play 18 games against the best team in the league! The Red Sox don't have to do that.

pjmartinez: touche =)

PLIM:
The A's are the cakewalk and the Mariners are not...

An 8.5 game lead is still pretty good, but anytime a team gains 6 games in 2 weeks, there should be some concern. As the lead shrinks, the spectre of 1978 looms larger.

As old Ethel Waters used to say,
"what goes up, must come down, cause Baby, you've been flying too high."

All I can say is that it looks like another interesting Summer.

7 1/2 only looks small because it was 14 1/2.

If the Yanks can gain 3 more games by the ASB... THEN it will be a race.

I'm pretty sure the Times doesn't allow its writers to vote for the MVP.

That's on because the vote is secretly held during the White House Correspondent's Dinner.