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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Forget Miss Clio… Call CHONE now!
SAM MILLER/OCR: Before I go to some players outperforming or underperforming projections, though, this is quoting you… you were asked which Angel could collapse, which would break out: “If I have to pick one maybe Howie Kendrick. I’m worried about the injuries and inability to lay off the slider outside stalling his development. With his lack of patience, he has to hit .300 to be an asset, .270 would be a disaster. … Weaver will take the step forward to become an ace, like Lackey, Santana, and Saunders have before him. My projections see him as the equal to Lackey and Santana.” You’re a witch!!!
Chone Smith: That looks pretty good. But I take no pleasure in Kendrick’s struggles.
SAM MILLER/OCR: Do you think our projections will get any better, or have we reached the limit of what we can feed into them?
Chone Smith: I thought they had reached some kind of limit, and actually hoped that I’d have a stable system so I could focus on other projects, but there is a lot more I can do. David Wright has taught me that in the past week. (Editor’s note: Wright has an unheard of batting average on balls in play this year, so he’s hitting for high average despite setting new personal highs in strikeouts and lows in home runs.)
The developer of the CHONE projection system, Sean Smith, on his way to fame and fortune. Or at least fame.
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I forecast for a living, but this is why I have no interest in trying to project baseball player performance. Rooting for your projections sometimes leads to rooting against your favorite players or teams (or vice versa).
It doesn't really develop as a conscious thing (and doesn't really affect things to the degree that I'm rooting against an Oriole). It starts out that you're checking box scores to see how the player-in-question fared and sooner or later, you're quite interest in that player's success or failure.
It's not to the degree where I have any strong feelings towards the players, but I have to admit that part of me is happy with Daniel Murphy and Nelson Cruz and annoyed with Rich Harden and Raul Ibanez.
Edit: Oh, thank God. This is a reference to Figgins.
Let's say Erick Aybar was having an A-Rod season, Howie Kendrick was threatening Bonds' walk record, Joe Saunders was going after Ryan's 383 strikeouts, and Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera, and Vlad Guerrero were racing to see who breaks Rickey's steal record first. If I knew that were all of that to happen my projection system would be ridiculed and discredited, would I still root for those things to happen? Hell yeah. Of course such events would break every projection system except George Costanza's OPS (Opposite projection system), but hopefully you get my point.
On some other players, I will root for or against depending on the projection. On Matt Wieters, I have a bet riding with MGL, and I have the under. I like the Orioles, and want him to do well, but not too well. On this one I'm in a pretty good position right now, but you never know.
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