"Anyone who mentions K-Rod as an MVP candidate is an idiot that you need to stop listening to"-Max Kellerman on ESPN Radio yesterday. Roughly.

Where would the Angels be without their ninth-inning door-slammer?

First place, and by a pretty comfortable margin.

Is the math here really so difficult?

Jerome Holtzman's legacy lives on!

Gammons has always loved the idea of closers as "everyday players" who should be up there for MVP awards (unlike starters). He was instrumental in getting it for Eck in '92.

I can't really think of a better argument for it than Max Kellerman being against it, actually.

Glancing over things, I think there's a good chance we'll see a really wacky AL MVP this year. These are the AL VORP leaders:

Kinsler, Sizemore, Rodriguez, Bradley, Hamilton, Ramirez, Morneau, Dye, Huff, Youkilis, Quentin, Mauer, Drew

The best player is most likely Sizemore, but he's not having the sort of world-beating season that would allow a player on a sub-.500 team to take the trophy - or, better, his world-beating is far too broadly based, his skills are too many and too varied for his stats to appear world-beating in the way that wins MVPs. ARod could well be deserving, and the Yankees could well charge into the playoffs, but he's going to end up with underwhelming counting stats (on pace for exactly 100 R and 100 RBI) because of the time missed with injuries. Neither Dye nor Quentin has received a ton of credit for the White Sox season, though in theory that could change in the next couple months (especially Quentin, good RBI totals). If the Twins stay in the hunt, Morneau and Mauer are both having pretty great seasons. Josh Hamilton has the huge RBI numbers and great narrative that might be able to win it for a player not on a pennant winner.

When the position player candidates underwhelm, it opens the door for pitchers, but the only AL pitchers who are having the sorts of seasons that could win an MVP are Lee and Halladay, both short on team wins and likely going to be short on personal wins.

I think there's a pretty good chance that K-Rod could win the MVP.

The only players I think can stop K-Rod are Quentin and Hamilton, possibly Morneau or ARod depending on how the cards fall in September. robneyer and other like-minded media persons, it is now your job to start talking up those four, get some narratives rolling. Becuase right now, I think Francisco Rodriguez is, by far, the frontrunner for winning the MVP balloting.

In a league without a dominant hitter, often the voters gravitate toward a new player on a surprise winner. See Pendleton, Terry, early 90 Braves. My gosh, Lonnie Smith almost vultured an MVP once, and we can likely recall the absurd level of attention Shannon Stewart got one year.

Quentin would fall in this castegory. Longoria, if he a great 2nd half, would get lots of votes even without superior numbers. And if the Rangers somehow made the playoffs, Hamilton is a lock.

Hamilton end of story, K-Rod can come in for the save.

how can K-Rod win when Rivera has been better? K-Rod is probably the fourth best closer in the league...MAYBE, third. Rivera has him this year, as does Nathan. Papelboner is probably having a better year too.

Longoria, if he a great 2nd half, would get lots of votes even without superior numbers.

It would be funny to see someone win the MVP in the same season that he loses ROY.

Because, although Longoria is clearly having the better season, I'd bet money that Ellsbury would win if the votes were counted today. That's the way the BBWAA works. That said, I bet Longoria would garner more MVP support than Ellsbury. Don't ask me to make sense of it, I can't make sense of a lot of things the writers do. I'm just sayin'.

Once Josh Hamilton gets over the magic 125 RBI total...it's over.

Someone should make an MVP predictor, I really enjoy the CYA predictor. If the Yankees make the playoffs and A-Rod has a big RBI run, he will win the MVP. I expect him to be the rightful MVP by the end of the year anyway.

When Bobby Thigpen set the saves record, he came in fifth in the MVP voting that year. In addition to the 57 saves, the White Sox were a surprise contender that season, but Thigpen wasn't anywhere close to Rickey (who won it) and Cecil Fielder, both of whom had huge years. He even finished behind Kelly Gruber.

If the Yankees make the playoffs and A-Rod has a big RBI run, he will win the MVP.

The Yanks seriously need to bat second half Cano in front of A-rod. Get Abreu out of the way and A-rod will get the RBIs he needs.

Because, although Longoria is clearly having the better season, I'd bet money that Ellsbury would win if the votes were counted today. That's the way the BBWAA works.

Even with the diminished faith I have in the BBWAA, I can't see them ignoring gaudy in-your-face Triple Crown stats like Longoria's for a guy whose only outstanding offensive stat is his SB total.

I can't see them ignoring gaudy in-your-face Triple Crown stats like Longoria's for a guy whose only outstanding offensive stat is his SB total.

And it's been weeks since Ellsbury stole a base. And he's not hitting leadoff anymore. I think Longoria's trophy is safe, although Joba is only out of it because the Yanks refuse to score for him.

I can't see them ignoring gaudy in-your-face Triple Crown stats like Longoria's for a guy whose only outstanding offensive stat is his SB total.

I can't see Ellsbury getting more votes than Youkilis or Pedroia, much less Longoria.

I know he's a DH, but I would think that Milton Bradley would have a strong argument if the season ended today.

Jermaine Dye is quietly having a very, very good year.

He even finished behind Kelly Gruber.

Well, Gruber did have 31HR, 118 RBI, and won a gold glove at 3B for a team which just missed the playoffs. Given that, is it really surprising that he did well in the MVP voting that year?

The best player is most likely Sizemore, but he's not having the sort of world-beating season that would allow a player on a sub-.500 team to take the trophy - or, better, his world-beating is far too broadly based, his skills are too many and too varied for his stats to appear world-beating in the way that wins MVPs

You mean like leading the league in homers with a shot at going 40-40? That would be impressive. If only Sizemore would stop being so subtle.

I can't see Ellsbury getting more votes than Youkilis or Pedroia, much less Longoria.

Call it a hunch, but I bet that Pedroia and Youkilis aren't going to get any ROY votes.

You mean like leading the league in homers with a shot at going 40-40? That would be impressive. If only Sizemore would stop being so subtle.

He strikes out too much to have as much upside as Jose Reyes.

/salfino

Someone should make an MVP predictor, I really enjoy the CYA predictor.

I think BPro made one, though it tracked NL, and sort of messed up after WC/Coors play. It predicted most of the strange calls.

I think it was 1 pt for each of the following: Hit .300, win batting title, lead in HR, lead in RBI, 100 RBI, win your division, and one if you play up the middle AND win your division).

Count those up, and whoever has the most points wins. If there's a tie, add Avg-HR-RBI together, and use that as the tiebreaker, with a bonus for winning the division and/or playing up the middle.

It's still BP Free Week, so you should all be able to read this.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1306

Too bad, but even WPA doesn't make a case for him as MVP, he's 2nd among AL relievers after Nathan.

I have an MVP predictor. Go to philbirnbaum.com and find some of the old By The Numbers isues. Check out Aug 03 (part I) and Aug 04 (Part II).

An MVP award to the fourth best closer in the American League. Yup. Sounds about right.

God bless sportswriters.

Sportswriters typical thought process: "the Angels won the division, even though their team wasn't all that great. SOMEBODY had a great year. No bats that I can see... hey, it musta been KRod! Q.E.D.!"

Homeruns in 20 AB's in a row and Bobby Crosby could be the next MVP right Gammo?

He strikes out too much to have as much upside as Jose Reyes.

/salfino

I think it was Sizemore can't hit curveballs so he is a fluke, and the league will sort him out.

The NL MVP vote is a big mess too right now.

Is this K-Rod's worst season? Kind of funny. I was very clever in trading him when I saw his peripherals and velocity weren't that great this year. He's had about 25 saves since.

On Kellerman, he also said that Edwar Ramirez is a better pitcher than K-Rod. That's about par for the course for him, though. He has some good insight but then takes it about 100 times too far.

He's had about 25 saves since.

I think it was about this time last year we had a couple threads asserting Putz as a legit MVP candidate? He had a few blow-ups in August, and then stopped getting Save Opps.

FWIW last 365 days and Francisco does have 57 saves.
My guess is he has a 50/50 shot right now. Probably somewhat better than 50/50 odds that he gets enough save Opps to break the record- in which cas eits pretty much in his hands.

It'd pretty funny if he's one save short with two weeks to go- the MSM goes all out covering it... and he can't even try for the record because there's never a 3 run or less lead for him to "save" in the 9th of a game

stupid stat and rule.

The NL MVP vote is a big mess too right now.

It's early, plenty of time for a front runner or two to separate from the pack

There have been no clear MVPs at this point in the season in either league the last few years, save for last year when A-Rod was the #1 MVP candidate for pretty much the whole season. There's always lots of "I think Jeter might win it, considering" or "David Wright is a great second-half away from being MVP!" talk, but it's hard to say who deserves the MVPs in July.

Hamilton's lead in RBIs is so large, I think he has to be the favorite right now.

It'd pretty funny if he's one save short with two weeks to go- the MSM goes all out covering it... and he can't even try for the record because there's never a 3 run or less lead for him to "save" in the 9th of a game

Can't you picture the Angels, up 14-2 on the final day of the season, handing the ball to him in the 7th inning? Go get 'em kid!

They even took out the "effective" portion of the three-inning rule. Lob 'em up there, Frankie!