Well, ####. If they put Jim Rice in, why not Ellsbury?

I literally burst into laughter when I read this headline

I snickered as well - and I think JE is a fine player. HoF? Unlikely, but you never know. FAST-TRACK to the HoF? Literally very funny!

You think the writers are going to forget about all of those tacos? HOF, baby!

I'd put Lester ahead of Pap and everyone else on the team. Just 25, the guy is already 42-16 career. Every key stat like WHIP and SO/BB get better year by year. Solid attitude. Great fundamentals. Everything points to a long and steady career. Much easier for a starting pitcher to make it than a reliever, and Pap's explosive nature could end up working against him at some point.

Well, since a former player and a HOFer to boot has now said it, you can bet it will become an argument for Ellsbury once he retires.

Maybe Rice was applying for a job at ESPN or MLB network and figured this statement would augment his analyst credentials for them.

I'd go with Pedroia here. Pitchers are always one arm injury away from ending their careers.

Ranking in OPS+ through age of 2Bs since 1925 (about when 2B and 3B switched on the defensive spectrum) with at least 400 games played:

Lazzeri*, Morgan*, Grich**, Gordon*, Molitor*, Baerga, Alomar***, Carew*, Orta, Mike Andrews, Jim Lefebvre, Pedroia***, Sandberg*, Cano***, Randolph**, Rose***, Herman*, Cuccinello, Hunt, Doerr*

Those are the top 20. One * means the player's a HOFer, two ** means he's not, but receives serious consideration from stathead types, and three means he's not yet eligible. There are another 5 with OPS+ more than 100, of whom Gehringer is a HOFer, and the other four, Vidro, Samuel, DeShields, and Knoblauch all appeared to have a chance at some point, but certainly don't now.

The guys in this crowd who were well regarded defensively are almost all in the Hall of Fame. I know he's only been in the league three years, but I'd give Pedroia a 70% chance or so of making the Hall based on his comparables. I know he doesn't look as good in the actual "comparable players" category on BBRef, but that ignores the point that he's better than most of his comparables there, and the ones who are better than him are no-brainer HOFers like Carew.

The guys in this crowd who were well regarded defensively are almost all in the Hall of Fame. I know he's only been in the league three years, but I'd give Pedroia a 70% chance or so of making the Hall based on his comparables.

He'll be hist!

He'll be hist!

He'll be history!

And Jim Rice will glorify his naaaaaaaame!

He'll be a bust, be a bust, be a bust

In the Hall of Fame!

Maybe Rice was applying for a job at ESPN or MLB network and figured this statement would augment his analyst credentials for them.

Well, it does sound like something Steve Phillips would say.

Interesting that the Sox have an excellent team and a perennial contender, and their last (probable) HoFer was Manny a year and a half ago.

Granted, Manny is a first-tier HoFer, but still. A certain NL team based in Queens has as many as three or four possible future HoFers and has suffered three of the most embarrassing seasons ever right in a row.

Granted, Manny is a first-tier HoFer, but still.

Not any more, he's not.

I think Beckett has the best chance. 108 wins isn't a lot but he seems to have resolved the blister problem so assuming health 6 more 16 win seasons (he's averaged 16.25 with the Sox so far) puts him just over 200. Fill that in with a few seasons on the back end to get to 230-240 and he's got some good "story" markers in his favor (post-season performance) and I think he has a pretty strong case.

Ellsbury is there if you squint. You basically have to assume he turns into Johnny Damon with 50-70 steals a year to get there but it's not entirely out of the question.

Ellsbury is there if you squint. You basically have to assume he turns into Johnny Damon with 50-70 steals a year to get there but it's not entirely out of the question.

We've seen enough of Ellsbury, I think, to say that the upside is Kenny Lofton, and that's actually not too much of a reach. Ellsbury just needs to develop his plate discipline a little more. I think if Lofton had stuck with one or two teams, instead of playing for a record or near record number of teams, he'd be getting some consideration.

Not any more, he's not.

Really? Are you going to go there, now, Shooty? It's too early in the morning for this.

(kidding)

The first person I thought of was Beckett.

Really? Are you going to go there, now, Shooty? It's too early in the morning for this.

I know you're kidding, but the writers have set their precedent. I'm not the gatekeeper! Clearly, by just production, he's a HOFer. I'm actually looking forward to the HOF voters trying to sort out the bad steroid users from the un-bad steroid users from the ingenues who mistakenly "tried" HGH from the guys "everybody knows" did roids and are hung for it from the guys "everybody knows" did roids but were likable so we'll give them a pass. It's going to be great fun.

I can't be the only one who thinks Papelbon is two years away from being Eric Gagne, can I?

Yeah. I hold out hope for Manny, though, because while he tested positive, he did it in such a strange, roundabout way that I'm still not even sure what it meant.

Also, I guess I'm one of the few left who just thinks he's awesome.

It's going to be great fun.

Like hell it is. It's going to be pure agony trying to work through all the tortured reasonings of all the local columnsists arguing that their guys only did it to keep up with those villains on the other franchises, so it's okay to vote for the guy who used to play for the local nine, but every one else who used should be subject to repeated sack beatings.

Like hell it is. It's going to be pure agony trying to work through all the tortured reasonings of all the local columnsists arguing that their guys only did it to keep up with those villains on the other franchises, so it's okay to vote for the guy who used to play for the local nine, but every one else who used should be subject to repeated sack beatings.

You just have to put yourself in the right mindset. Think of the coming HOF-steroid debates as an absurdist comedy about the human condition. It's going to make for good theater.

You just have to put yourself in the right mindset.

The local columnist is Richard Griffin. When dealing with his writing, there is no such thing as the right mindset.

Was he the guy who wrote the "White Jays" column?

Was he the guy who wrote the "White Jays" column?

That was a different idiot - Geoff Baker - who is now covering the Mariners. We in the Toronto area have been treated to a wide variety of dumb columnists over the years.

I'm actually looking forward to the HOF voters trying to sort out the bad steroid users from the un-bad steroid users from the ingenues who mistakenly "tried" HGH from the guys "everybody knows" did roids and are hung for it from the guys "everybody knows" did roids but were likable so we'll give them a pass.

Never before have I been asked to regard Andy Pettitte as an "ingenue." I'm not sure how I feel just now.

Never before have I been asked to regard Andy Pettitte as an "ingenue." I'm not sure how I feel just now.

You're a little turned on, aren't you?

You're a little turned on, aren't you?

It's a whole mix of emotions, it's hard to pick out just one!

If you want a guy on the Red Sox who I think has the markers of a HOF candidate in 2030 or so is Lester.

Lefty. Power pitcher. Plays for a rather sensible organization meaning plenty of win opportunities and likely to keep him thanks to ridiculous cash intake.

John Lester could win some awards, pitch well in big game situations and come age 40 look around and see 200 plus wins on his resume and a few rings........

I'm with Harvey's. I think actual HOF talk is way, way premature, but the question involves current Red Sox with a realistic chance.

#10's a good post.

The local columnist is Richard Griffin. When dealing with his writing, there is no such thing as the right mindset.

How about "Abandon all hope, ye who enter here"?

Interesting that the Sox have an excellent team and a perennial contender, and their last (probable) HoFer was Manny a year and a half ago.

John Smoltz says hi?

The 2008 Yankees could set a record for most HOFers, I think, when it's all said and done. By rough likelihood of getting elected...

Jeter
A-Rod
Rivera
Ivan Rodriguez
Posada
Pettitte
Mussina
Damon
- - - -
Cano
Abreu
Hughes/Chamberlain/Random 'Wow, I had no idea he started his career with the '08 Yankees' player

Growing up, the record was 8, set by those '27-'28 Philadelphia Athletic teams. I don't know if that's changed... but I'd say there's an outside chance this team breaks it.

I'm actually looking forward to the HOF voters trying to sort out the bad steroid users from the un-bad steroid users from the ingenues who mistakenly "tried" HGH from the guys "everybody knows" did roids and are hung for it from the guys "everybody knows" did roids but were likable so we'll give them a pass. It's going to be great fun.

Y'know, this is going to be terrible for the Hall of Fame. It's going to change from being a collection of the game's greatest players to a collection of really good players but only those we think are pure of heart.

In ten years, it's entirely possible that the Baseball Hall of Fame will be a huge joke.

It's going to change from being a collection of the game's greatest players to a collection of really good players but only those we think are pure of heart.

In ten years, it's entirely possible that the Baseball Hall of Fame will be a huge joke.

Especially when a few of the pure of heart guys get some kind of Kirby Puckett like curtain-raising after their election.

I will now reveal the Official Percentages representing various current Red Sox' chances of making the HOF:

Beckett: 10%
Lester: 5%
Bucholz: 1%
Papelbon: 5%
BWagner: 20%
Youkilis: 1%
Pedroia: 5%
Lowell: 0%
Ellsbury: 1%
Bay: 0%
Drew: <5%
Varitek: <1%
Ortiz: <1%
VMartinez: <5%

So, I guess my answer is Wagner.

I'm actually looking forward to the HOF voters trying to sort out the bad steroid users from the un-bad steroid users from the ingenues who mistakenly "tried" HGH from the guys "everybody knows" did roids and are hung for it from the guys "everybody knows" did roids but were likable so we'll give them a pass. It's going to be great fun.

Y'know, this is going to be terrible for the Hall of Fame. It's going to change from being a collection of the game's greatest players to a collection of really good players but only those we think are pure of heart.

In ten years, it's entirely possible that the Baseball Hall of Fame will be a huge joke.

I personally think the level of twisting operatic drama you guys are ascribing to the HOF is not going to approach this.

I personally think the level of twisting operatic drama you guys are ascribing to the HOF is not going to approach this.

So far, they've only had to deal with Mac and he's been easy for them since he's been branded with the big S.

I will say it again: Any Hall of Fame without Clemens and Bonds and ARod would be a joke (they can get by without McGwire alone). Add to that the stars-but-non-superstars like Sosa and Manny and Palmeiro and IRod and the transformation to a laughingstock will be complete.

If Piazza's bacne becomes an issue (I'd say it wouldn't, but with the low standards and irrational thinking of the anti-steroid zealots one never knows) that will add to the idiocy.

I'm just glad I don't live in Boston, where I would have to subjected to Jim Rice's particular brand of stupidity on a more regular basis. He needs to put a little more distance between himself and whatever it is he's been smoking. I used to like the guy...on the field; too bad he had to start opening his mouth.

I like the sponsorship of JME's Bref page...

I don't think it's going to be operatic; it's just going to become the case that the Hall of Fame no longer recognizes the game's greatest players. McGwire is only the first, although some people have convinced themselves he doesn't belong anyway. Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, Sosa, Manny, even Ivan Rodriguez are all going to have trouble getting in. Maybe even Piazza if Murray Chass has much sway.

I like the sponsorship of JME's Bref page...

Assisting in the comedy is the likelihood that whomever wrote that actually thinks Gardner is good.

I think it will be entertaining to watch the mental gymnastics people will go through to justify keeping these guys out. Sosa didn't really have "that" long a peak, Palmeiro was never "great", Ivan Rodriguez' OBP was too low etc....

Speaking of steroids...you guys wouldn't know, by chance, how I can get ripped in about three weeks, would you? I'm pretty manly, but I think I could be manlier.

I'm pretty manly, but I think I could be manlier.

Your girl chases you away from the TV so that she can watch Ghosthunter shows. You could obviously be manlier.

Your girl chases you away from the TV so that she can watch Ghosthunter shows. You could obviously be manlier.

Those are strategic retreats, my friend. When you have a girl you don't have to inflate, things get tricky...

Those are strategic retreats, my friend.

Because she's fed up with your clumsy advances?

Because she's fed up with your clumsy advances?

I'm not sure I like where this is going. Roy Halladay: Yankee Douche.

That should get you off the trail...

Roy Halladay: Yankee Douche.

To my sadness, that's basically what I'm expecting to happen after the 2010 season. I'm just hoping that his Yankee-induced douchiness stays at an acceptable level (like Bernie), and he doesn't go ultra-douchy (like Paul O'Neill).

That should get you off the trail...

It'll do for now.

To my sadness, that's basically what I'm expecting to happen after the 2010 season. I'm just hoping that his Yankee-induced douchiness stays at an acceptable level (like Bernie), and he doesn't go ultra-douchy (like Paul O'Neill).

I'm impressed you can tell them apart. A Yankee Douche is a Yankee Douche to me.

When you have a girl you don't have to inflate, things get tricky...

I'm afraid to ask...

Actually, I don't even think Bernie falls in there. For me acceptable would be Brosius, and unacceptable would be O'Neill.

Growing up, the record was 8, set by those '27-'28 Philadelphia Athletic teams. I don't know if that's changed... but I'd say there's an outside chance this team breaks it.

1932 Yankees had 9.

I'm pretty manly, but I think I could be manlier.

I keep hearing all these radio ads for a pill that is supposed to help your manhood by making you longer and thicker. They don't say what part of you becomes longer and thicker, though. The only thing I can think of is your neck, and who wants to look like Merton Hanks?

The only thing I can think of is your neck, and who wants to look like Merton Hanks?

I think it defied one or more laws of physics than Merton Hanks didn't get killed playing football.

They don't say what part of you becomes longer and thicker, though.The only thing I can think of is your neck

Hutcheson, actually, is the CEO of this company, so you're right, it is the neck.

"I know you're kidding, but the writers have set their precedent"

McGwire is no precedent; each case has its own life, and each passing year brings change to voter's perceptions.

While you may think you know something there, at the end of the day you'll just have to wait and see what happens like the rest of us.

EDIT: not meaning to sound snarky : )

While you may think you know something there, at the end of the day you'll just have to wait and see what happens like the rest of us.

Yes sir!

edit: Heh.

McGwire is no precedent; each case has its own life, and each passing year brings change to voter's perceptions.

I think the ARod revelation of steroid use was the turning point in all of this steroids silliness. You cannot keep several all-time great players out of the HOF without reducing it to a laughingstock.

I suspect if many voters had their way they'd draw a line in the sand at ARod -- "He confessed" -- and let him in. But that rationale makes no sense. A confession may show "character" in some form, but if the problems with steroids are that they are cheating/turn the game into a mockery/are unfair/pressure other players/unlevel the playing field/make a travesty of the record books/whatever other such silliness, I don't see how a confession solves any of those problems.

I suspect if many voters had their way they'd draw a line in the sand at ARod -- "He confessed" -- and let him in. But that rationale makes no sense.

Especially since he only confessed after he got caught. It's not like he came forward with the confession before the supporting information came to light.

Especially since he only confessed after he got caught. It's not like he came forward with the confession before the supporting information came to light.

Yes, but all that really matters to the anti-steroids zealots is that the player confesses, in some form. They want the player on his knees in front of them, begging for their forgiveness.

That is all this is about, that is all this has ever been about.

1932 Yankees had 9.

Counting managers (both theirs and guys later inducted as managers), so did the 1926 New York Giants, who finished in 5th place in the 8-team NL with a losing record (74-77). And yes, Frankie Frisch was on that team; how did you guess?

All I wanna know is how a team so stuffed with future HoFers went down with hardly a whimper.

Yes, but all that really matters to the anti-steroids zealots is that the player confesses, in some form. They want the player on his knees in front of them, begging for their forgiveness.

I'm really, really hoping Mac doesn't give them the satisfaction. And I admire LaRussa for saying #### it, McGwire is my guy. (This is all independent on my feelings about steroids. If I could wave a magic wand, I'd get rid of them in the context of their PED use in a second.)

I'm really, really hoping Mac doesn't give them the satisfaction.

Agreed. Some form of "Go F yourselves" would be more than appropriate.

51.

1932 Yankees had 9 (Hall of Famers).

Hmmm. And none of them were inducted in the past 10 years (meaning they held the record when I was 14 and loved obscure baseball trivia). I wonder how I missed them?

Agreed. Some form of "Go F yourselves" would be more than appropriate.

Only if he's looking to make the situation worse. Right now, it's a matter of "Why won't he talk about it?" If he goes with your route, it'll become "Why won't that roid-raging ####### talk about it?"

He's probably a lot happier with the former.

Counting managers (both theirs and guys later inducted as managers), so did the 1926 New York Giants, who finished in 5th place in the 8-team NL with a losing record (74-77). And yes, Frankie Frisch was on that team; how did you guess?

Sure, but that includes only one legitimate HOF player in his prime (Frisch himself), plus some of Frisch's crony picks, plus Mel Ott, who was a legitimate HOFer, but was only 17, plus McGraw, the manager. Bill Terry was on that team, too, and I think he was a legit choice (although towards the bottom of a "Big Hall"), but didn't play much because he was blocked by George Kelly. It's not like they were all crony picks. The team wasn't very good because almost none of the real HOFers were having years anything like their best years, but they did have three legitimate HOFers, plus a legit HOF manager.

Only if he's looking to make the situation worse. Right now, it's a matter of "Why won't he talk about it?" If he goes with your route, it'll become "Why won't that roid-raging ####### talk about it?"

He's probably a lot happier with the former.

On what planet is he not already in the latter boat?

Rice's logic is impeccable.

We all know (and Jim Rice certainly knows) that Jim Rice is at least a near-inner-circle HoFer if not right there next to Ted Williams.

So clearly it is illogical that the current Red Sox could have a player better than Rice. Therefore any potential HoFer has to be worse than Rice. Youkilis, Pedroia, Lowell, Bay, Drew, Martinez, Beckett, Lester, Papelbon -- those guys could all end up better than Rice but we have already established that one player better than Rice is a logical impossibility, 9 is clearly laughable.

Reductio ad absurdum -- Ellsbury is the only logical choice.

All I wanna know is how a team so stuffed with future HoFers went down with hardly a whimper.

Ask Shooty -- it's my understanding he's an expert on going down without a whimper.

Ask Shooty -- it's my understanding he's an expert on going down without a whimper.

Jeez, Walt. You've crossed the line, man. You crossed the line!

I think Ellsbury has a great shot at the Fantasy Baseball Hall Of Fame. Cooperstown? The odds are less...good.

I admire LaRussa for saying #### it, McGwire is my guy. This is all independent of my feelings about LaRussa.

Fixed that for me.

he tested positive, he did it in such a strange, roundabout way that I'm still not even sure what it meant.

What it means is that when using AAS your levels of testosterone are so high from exogenous sources that your body will shut down production of indogenous testosterone. In other words, your testicles stop producing testosterone and may even lose some size although this is generally gained back on cessation of the exogenous use unless you're a complete screwup. HCG is used on cycle to give a "jolt" to the testicles, it forces them to produce testosterone on their own. By doing this it maintains size and allows post cycle indogenous production of testosterone to recover more quickly.

If Ellsbury is on a fast track to anything, it's probably to retirement in six years.

but every one else who used should be subject to repeated sack beatings.

It always comes back to clubbing seals in sacks with you Canadians, doesn't it?

Rice wasn't asked whether anyone on the Red Sox was likely to be in the HOF. He wasn't asked who on the Red Sox was likely to finish with the best career. Ellsbury was a perfectly reasonable answer to the question that he was asked.

Rice wasn't asked whether anyone on the Red Sox was likely to be in the HOF. He wasn't asked who on the Red Sox was likely to finish with the best career. Ellsbury was a perfectly reasonable answer to the question that he was asked.

I have reread the question about twenty times now, yet Jacoby Ellsbury is still not the name I would have blurted out. Not even close.