Overworking a Workhorse: Is It Risk or Reward? (RR)

With every pitch Mike Pelfrey throws Friday night against the Phillies at Shea Stadium, the pitching coach Dan Warthen will be one of the more fidgety people in the Mets’ dugout. Even if the 24-year-old Pelfrey pitches effectively, with little stress, Warthen will still be quite aware that every additional inning he compiles the rest of this season comes with a certain risk.

The more Pelfrey pitches, the greater the chances for an injury next year, or a decrease in effectiveness. That is not a notion based on paranoia or fatalistic thinking. Instead, it is based on a theory researched by the Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci and now widely accepted in baseball that says that any pitcher younger than 25 whose total number of innings jumps by more than 30 from the previous season leaves himself susceptible to injury the next year, or at least to a much higher earned run average.

I think too much is being made about this issue. I am all for pitch counts and giving young guys extra days but I don’t buy this innings cap. Guys like Hughes and Buchholz have struggled this year for reasons other than the amount of innings they pitched last season.

That being said, I am curious how strong the research behind these innings caps is. Are the Mets overworking Pelfrey?