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Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Passan’s all-overpaid and all-underpaid teams

All-Overpaid....

SS: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, $21.6 million – He’s on pace for the worst year of his career by a long shot offensively, his defense is subpar even by his standards and he’s the third-highest-paid player in baseball. No amount of leadership can make that worth more than $20 million....

All-Underpaid…

DH: Milton Bradley, Texas, $5.25 million – Never has Bradley played more than 141 games in a season. So to count on him for this level of production the rest of the year – leading the AL in on-base and slugging percentages – would be unrealistic. Still, the Rangers’ decision to sign Bradley is paying dividends, so long as he hits the ball and not a broadcaster.

Yikes, four Dodgers on the “overpaid” list. Great job Uncle Ned!


Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Excel Hearts Choi Posted: June 18, 2008 at 06:29 PM (#2824978)
It's pretty damning that the entire starting OF for the Angels is included on this list.
   2. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: June 18, 2008 at 06:34 PM (#2824990)
RP: Mark Prior, San Diego, $1 million – And to think, other teams wanted to offer him more. Seeing as this exceeds the minimum Prior was eligible to receive by about half a million dollars, it doesn’t make him overpaid, per se. At this point, though, signing Prior is like throwing away money, which is one of the sad stories of this era.

That's pretty silly to include Prior's $1M as overpaid. Sure, it didn't work out. But it was worth a one-year commitment at $1M to give it a shot.

Many of Passan's underpaid guys are still in their reserve years, which makes the second half of the article pretty uninteresting.
   3. Alex Gordon's #1 Fan Posted: June 18, 2008 at 06:37 PM (#2824997)
Many of Passan's underpaid guys are still in their reserve years, which makes the second half of the article pretty uninteresting.


Yea, I thought this: "Baseball rules artificially depress their salary, and the credit due to teams for signing them doesn’t apply." would mean no pre-FA guys, but he included a bunch of arbitration eligible, pre-FA guys. I'd be more interested in reading about the best FA bargains.
   4. DKDC Posted: June 18, 2008 at 06:38 PM (#2824999)
The same caveat applies this year as did last: no players who have yet to hit arbitration. Baseball rules artificially depress their salary, and the credit due to teams for signing them doesn’t apply.


2B: Ian Kinsler, Texas, $700,000


Technically, Kinsler will never reach arbitration, but he has only two years of service time, so his salary for this year is depressed as much as any other pre-arb player.
   5. Jimmy P Posted: June 18, 2008 at 06:40 PM (#2825007)
That's pretty silly to include Prior's $1M as overpaid. Sure, it didn't work out. But it was worth a one-year commitment at $1M to give it a shot.

Prior is just the latest athlete to be derided by the press because they are jealous.

Yea, I thought this: "Baseball rules artificially depress their salary, and the credit due to teams for signing them doesn’t apply." would mean no pre-FA guys, but he included a bunch of arbitration eligible, pre-FA guys. I'd be more interested in reading about the best FA bargains.

He did include all guys that make above the minimum, though. In fact, all the hitters he included were guys that signed contracts, not arbitration.
   6. The Ghost has no kitchen table Posted: June 18, 2008 at 06:45 PM (#2825012)
Sample size, please. Is Vlad really that weak a hitter? No. Is Doug Brocail really good enough to be called an underpaid reliever at 2.5 million? No.
   7. Billy B Posted: June 18, 2008 at 06:47 PM (#2825014)
Kerry Wood was scheduled to make $4,200,000 (as noted by Passan) even if he hurt himself getting out the hot tub and missed the year. His contract also has another $3,450,000 in performance bonuses (hat tip: Cot's) if he is the full-time closer.

In other words, does he really belong on an "All-Underpaid" at $7,650,000, which is what he is going to make if he keeps this up?
   8. Jimmy P Posted: June 18, 2008 at 06:48 PM (#2825015)
He did include all guys that make above the minimum, though.

In fact, if I would have read the intro, he doesn't include anyone who hasn't hit arbitration.

Is Vlad really that weak a hitter? No.

But that's the point. In 65 games, you expect more than .276/.335/.472 for your $15.5 million.
   9. Dr Love Posted: June 18, 2008 at 06:53 PM (#2825020)
Kinsler is in the 1st year of a contract that averages over $4M for 5 years. He's only underpaid because this is the cheap year of the deal.
   10. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 18, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2825026)
his defense is subpar even by his standards

If enough people keep saying something that isn't true, some people will eventually believe them.
   11. dahlian Kirby, children's author extraordinaire. Posted: June 18, 2008 at 07:03 PM (#2825032)
I had no idea how far Jeff Kent has fallen off the cliff this year. Yikes.
   12. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 18, 2008 at 07:09 PM (#2825041)
If enough people keep saying something that isn't true, some people will eventually believe them.

You are trying to prove that correct.
   13. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: June 18, 2008 at 07:10 PM (#2825044)
In fact, all the hitters he included were guys that signed contracts, not arbitration.

There's really no reason to differentiate between a guy who actually had his contract decided by arbitration and a guy who signed a contract to avoid arbitration.

If Jose Reyes were a FA last winter, would he only be making $4M in 2008? Of course not. The Mets have him signed to a "bargain" contract through 2010 (with a $11M option for 2011) because he is still in his reserve years. The Mets should only be credited for signing him to a bargain contract for the FA years that they bought out (2010 and 2011), which of course are quite a bit more than his reserve year salaries.
   14. Jimmy P Posted: June 18, 2008 at 07:39 PM (#2825074)
If Jose Reyes were a FA last winter, would he only be making $4M in 2008? Of course not.

Maybe, maybe not. The end result is that no one forced Jose Reyes to sign that deal, he did it himself. So, yeah, I think he should be included in this because he chose to play for that deal, no one forced him to. He could have easily just done three one year deals.

Kinsler is in the 1st year of a contract that averages over $4M for 5 years. He's only underpaid because this is the cheap year of the deal.


Then for this year, he's underpaid.
   15. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 18, 2008 at 08:38 PM (#2825171)
You are trying to prove that correct.

Go ahead BLB, provide some evidence that Jeter is playing below his normal standard of defense.
   16. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 18, 2008 at 08:40 PM (#2825177)
I had no idea how far Jeff Kent has fallen off the cliff this year. Yikes.

drug testing says hi
   17. jwb Posted: June 18, 2008 at 09:19 PM (#2825232)
Go ahead BLB, provide some evidence that Jeter is playing below his normal standard of defense.
THT's fielding win shares has him in a four way tie for 11th-14th. The upside of that tie is a little below his norm (it's a counting stat, he plays over 90%). The downside is well below it.
   18. Esoteric roots for the two worst teams in baseball Posted: June 18, 2008 at 09:24 PM (#2825246)
I had no idea how far Jeff Kent has fallen off the cliff this year. Yikes.

drug testing says hi
Given that Jeff Kent is on record - both this season and before - as advocating an even MORE stringent MLB drug policy (including blood testing and HGH testing relative to blood levels) I find this hard to believe. Kent may be crusty unlikable bastard, but he doesn't strike me as a hypocrite.
   19. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: June 18, 2008 at 09:24 PM (#2825248)
FWS is a rather ridiculous metric. THT's RZR has him at .847, 6th among MLB shortstops. It's also his highest in the past five years, so his true talent is almost certainly more in the realm of being a below-average defensive SS.
   20. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 18, 2008 at 09:25 PM (#2825249)
THT's fielding win shares has him in a four way tie for 11th-14th. The upside of that tie is a little below his norm (it's a counting stat, he plays over 90%). The downside is well below it.

I can't believe people still take Win Shares fielding seriously. It's not a PBP metric. RZR has Jeter at second in the American League, ZR has him at his career average.

If you want to believe Win Shares, sure he might be worse this year. Hey, Bpro says he's doing terrible too! I think they're both worthless.
   21. Petunia Posted: June 18, 2008 at 09:37 PM (#2825262)
And Bradley has strained his left quad for the second time in a week. "Unrealistic" is definitely one way of putting it.
   22. Danny Posted: June 18, 2008 at 09:38 PM (#2825263)
Given that Jeff Kent is on record - both this season and before - as advocating an even MORE stringent MLB drug policy (including blood testing and HGH testing relative to blood levels) I find this hard to believe. Kent may be crusty unlikable bastard, but he doesn't strike me as a hypocrite.


That, and drug testing has already been going on for a few years. I think him being 40 might have something to do with it.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: June 19, 2008 at 02:54 AM (#2825664)
Maybe, maybe not. The end result is that no one forced Jose Reyes to sign that deal, he did it himself. So, yeah, I think he should be included in this because he chose to play for that deal, no one forced him to. He could have easily just done three one year deals.

The point is that he had a choice between the long-term guaranteed contract or 3 one-year deals below market value because that's how reserve rights work. He may or may not have gotten more money had he not signed the deal (there's no way to know for sure even in hindsight much less at the time).

The NY Mets had control of Reyes until his FA years no matter what he wanted and, given the way it works, the Mets were guaranteed to get that for below free-market value. So the fact that he's a 'bargain' is meaningless really. If the author made the case that he's a major bargain compared to what he would have gotten -- i.e. that he's a bargain ($/production) compared to other SS of similar service time -- then he'd have a case. Barring doing that, the list really should be only of FA-eligible players.

Then for this year, [Kinsler's] underpaid.

Including Kinsler is laughable. For this year, Kinsler is OVERPAID. The Rangers could have forced him to sign for, what, $500,000 -- whatever the minimum is for 2 years of service time.
   24. Jimmy P Posted: June 19, 2008 at 11:54 AM (#2825900)

Including Kinsler is laughable. For this year, Kinsler is OVERPAID. The Rangers could have forced him to sign for, what, $500,000 -- whatever the minimum is for 2 years of service time.


BUT HE'S NOT! Live in the real world. These guys make that money, that is a fact. So, considering that the Rangers are getting All-Star talent for $700,000, he's underpaid. You can say what you want about "he could've got this, he didn't have leverage", he's a grown man, he made a decision to sign the contract.
   25. Eraser-X is dominating this site! Posted: June 19, 2008 at 12:04 PM (#2825913)

BUT HE'S NOT! Live in the real world. These guys make that money, that is a fact. So, considering that the Rangers are getting All-Star talent for $700,000, he's underpaid. You can say what you want about "he could've got this, he didn't have leverage", he's a grown man, he made a decision to sign the contract.


That's dumb.
   26. bfan Posted: June 19, 2008 at 12:12 PM (#2825922)
That line on Andruw Jones training in a Hostess factory was priceless. I wonder if we will see a slimmed down version of him when he comes off the DL, or if not, we will continue to hear "it's not the fat; it's the bat speed".
   27. Johnny Clash Posted: June 19, 2008 at 12:32 PM (#2825944)
I was going to say Oakland is even underrated at being underrated, but Duke sneaked onto the list. Ellis would have been a good choice for second base - he only made 3.5M last year.
   28. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 20, 2008 at 12:05 PM (#2826984)
BUT HE'S NOT! Live in the real world. These guys make that money, that is a fact. So, considering that the Rangers are getting All-Star talent for $700,000, he's underpaid. You can say what you want about "he could've got this, he didn't have leverage", he's a grown man, he made a decision to sign the contract.

It has to do with the context of each signing. A FA signs with the team willing to pay him the most. A pre-FA player will sign a contract in the context of knowing that he will be paid a fixed amount until four years of service time and have two years of arbitration. Those rules cap the amount of money he can expect to make and, therefore, he agrees to sign for less than a FA. Yes, he makes a choice by signing, but in no way is it the same choice a FA makes.
   29. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: June 20, 2008 at 12:20 PM (#2827029)
I think I'd rather have Jeter for $21M than Lugo for $9M.
   30. Joe C isn't Posted: June 20, 2008 at 12:25 PM (#2827039)
RZR has Jeter at second in the American League, ZR has him at his career average.

Hooray for defensive stats in samples that are too small to have any precision!
   31. The Good Face Posted: June 20, 2008 at 12:28 PM (#2827048)
Kinsler is in the 1st year of a contract that averages over $4M for 5 years. He's only underpaid because this is the cheap year of the deal.


Assuming he can maintain this year's productivity going forward, Kinsler will be underpaid at $4M/year as well.
   32. JPWF13 Posted: June 20, 2008 at 12:46 PM (#2827080)
I think I'd rather have Jeter for $21M than Lugo for $9M.

His career OPS+ is 88
he's up to 87 on the year, what were the sawx expecting?

BTW, Renteria has turned back into the Redsox version... Lugo is outplaying him...
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