SCHMECOTA? Jeez…Nate has some hardcore acronymical work ahead.
Joe at Statistician Magician points out my (so far) accurate assessment of the Florida Marlins (the last two losses not withstanding) in the following:
Marlins not this good?: Obviously, they are not going to win eleven of every twelve games. The Paul Lebowitz of New York predicted the Marlins to take the division with 88 wins. A prediction that looks pretty good at this point. I simply chose to predict them to win 81 games. Stayed on the safe side. PECOTA however, had them at 68 wins, not looking good almighty automator.
I had the Marlins at 90 wins, for the record.
Before anything else, I’ve reached some pretty lofty status as I’ve become “The Paul Lebowitz of New York”. That’s up there with The Batman of Gotham City; The Superman of Metropolis; The Donald of Trump; and the Übermensch of Nietzsche.
I honestly do not know how to calculate: A) PECOTA; B) The Pygmalion Win Theorem; or C) Win Shares. Nor do I care. How many numbers do we have to sift through to realize that these facts and figures (some of which had not only the Marlins going 68-94 this year and the Padres winning the pennant last season) aren’t any more accurate than the judgment of those who take statistics and other factors into account.
How hard is it to have a formula, plug said formula into a computer and come out with the same predictions as everyone else who’s using the same formula is coming out with? There’s no analysis; no knowledge from actually knowing anything about the game or about people; it’s numbers crunching and it’s boring. What’s worse, it’s no more accurate than listening to someone who has an idea of what they’re talking about and isn’t just blowing smoke out of their asses like Joe Morgan; or babbling endlessly about the veracity of numbers as the hard core stat-geeks do.
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That's one of the things I've thought of looking into but I tend to think someone has already done that. Also, so much can happen during a season to a team's 25 man roster (injuries, trades, minor league breakouts) that it seems like such a study would have some inherent flaws. For example, if somebody projected the 2004 Cubs to win 89 games, which they did, but s/he made that projection based on the belief that Prior and Wood would be healthy all season, is that a good prediction or a bad one?
http://paullebowitz.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/03/2008_predicted_.html
He had the Tigers and Reds winning the respective Central divisions and the Rays he pegged at 76 wins and he was one of the folks who bought into the Mariners as he had them with 89 wins. His NL Cy Young winner was Aaron Harang and his AL Cy Young was Justin Verlander.
All in all his predictions seemed mostly as good/bad as you'd expect from such things. Not too much terribly embarrassing, most of what I listed above was at least moderately defensible in March, 2008 but nothing too impressive either.
Agreed.
I think the Fish have a very good rotation with an even higher upside, but no way that offense can get them to 90 wins. Emilio Bonifacio is not the new Terry Pendleton.
If anyone cares to compare to PECOTA or my team predictions, I suggest we leave things like correlation and RMSE in our mothers' basements. A simple head to head W-L would do, give a win to whatever system comes closer for each of the 30 teams.
Emphasis mine.
This guy's headed down a Gambler's Fallacy spiral.
Well, the first thing to remember is that the rain in Spain falls mainly in the plain.
Well apparently it's pretty tough, since your '08 predictions average out to 82.2-79.8
'08 RMSE:
PECOTA: 9.69
CHONE: 9.76
Lebowitz: 12.31
PECOTA vs. Lebowitz: PECOTA 17, Lebowitz 12, one tie (Nats)
CHONE vs. Lebwoitz: CHONE 19, Lebowitz 11
Clearly, PECOTA projecting the Mariners to win 75 games (Lebowitz had them at 89) isn't adding any value at all.
Those rain-caused doubleheaders are going to kill the Spanish pitching staff. When are Ferdinand and Isabella going to pony up for the retractable roof stadium that the team needs to be competitive?
Well, the first thing to remember is that the rain in Spain falls mainly in the plain.
The fraction of Spanish raindrops that fall in the plain will typically be equal to the square of the number of clouds over the plain, divided by the sum of the squares of the number of clouds over the plain and the number of clouds over the mountains.
Show some respect, the Pirates have beaten them in both games and are 8-6 themselves. And their Pythonzero record is also 8-6.
Heh. Pirates already have that one locked up.
Is "Lebowitz isn't the only guy in this business who failed second grade arithmetic" really what you are looking for in a back-cover blurb?
Who is this guy, Bill Simmons?
That's because doing the math is for nerdy losers who live in their mother's basement. Real winners go with their gut!
Sometimes a biased estimator is the one with a lower RMSE. :-)
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