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Wednesday, December 17, 2008
In response to a questioner who asked:
Is it smart for the Pirates to be avoiding free agents and targeting prospects?
Kovacevic responds with some pointed criticism of management:
Seems that the Pirates’ new management entered the process with a firm idea and stuck to it. And there is nothing wrong with that, intrinsically. In fact, some would call it commendable. But different circumstances call for reactions. Once management saw that the offense, chemistry and some other elements looked to be in place last summer, maybe there could have been an adjustment to the pre-ordained Bay-must-go plan. They could have capitalized on the kind of thinking that you describe, going for legitimate value through free agency and waiting until the cycle changes to try to pry away other team’s top prospects.
In the interim, there might have been some competitive baseball played in Pittsburgh, and there is value in that, too: It would represent a tangible, real change in culture, something that would have a positive impact inside and outside the organization. The players would believe, as would the prospects coming up, as well as potential outsiders who might previously never have wanted to play for the Pirates. The public surely would get on board, too, and that would result in healthier attendance and other revenue streams.
But all of that, for reasons outlined at length in previous writings, was predicated on keeping Bay. Not because Bay singlehandedly would have carried the franchise. Obviously, that was not the case during his time here. Rather, it was because his trade set into irreversible motion the dismantling of the current roster and, with little depth immediately behind them, it probably will be a long time now until the team is competitive at the top level again.
As the questioner argues, it is very possible that we have passed into a cycle where the smart thing for a limited-resource team to do is to look at second-tier free agents and keep building its own prospect pipeline, rather than trying to dispose of salary for other team’s prospects. Interesting thoughts here.
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The problem is overpaying for these guys, and coninuing to add 2-3 of them every year, forfeiting draft picks, and preventing young players from getting PT.
I don't think overpaying is as big a problem as offering multi-year contracts. Last year a blogger included Jeff Weaver's 1 year, 8 million dollar deal as one of the worst contracts in FA history. Yes, he was wretched for have the year, but for the other half he was a decent pitcher and, more importantly, he was off the books after that season. A 76 win team took a overpaid flyer on him, it didn't pay off, so good riddance. Much worse are the contracts the M's offered to Washburn, Batista & Carlos Silva, multi-year, multi-million deals to pitchers who are below average who may now be blocking guys who may not end up any better but are cheaper and have better potential, such as Ryan Rowland-Smith.
I agree with the general point about multiyear contracts though; I think the simple reason why there are so many of these for fungible products is that teams vastly underestimate the effects of regression to the mean, both in results and in "true talent level" -- especially for pitchers, given that when performing the unnatural act of hurling a baseball, the difference of a few inches can mean the difference between hero and zero. Pitchers are finely tuned machines, and even a slight hiccup can cause them to be either injured or Van Benschotean. The odds of none of these hiccups happening over the course of a multi-year contract are simply not very high. I'm guessing that the expected win value of even a good pitcher signed to a (say) 5-year contract is about half in the final year what it is in the first year.
Hey, you saw the X-rated version of "Cool as Ice" too?
Oh, we would need to do that anyway....
Sanchez
bay
nady/ mccutchen
doumit
Laroche
Bautista
Wilson
Let's assume the pirates went with this lineup and signed Paul Byrd and Bartolo Colon for their staff. With Snell, Gorz, and Maholm rounding out the rotation (remember when Duke was going to be a 20 game winner?) , I see the rotation as average, and with nady probably declining from last year's numbers, and probably getting benched for mcCutchen at some point, this is yet another team that is not set for success, but a long period of mediocre to bad baseball, like we have anyway. Instead we got andy laroche, and brandon moss, both of whom are probably not allstar calibre players, and are probably going to get traded themselves when they're worth more.
However, Signing Bay to a longterm contract might have been a feasible option to complement a youth influx, if littlefield had drafted a single player of worth (except for mccutchen) to comprise said youth movement.
*hits keyboard in frustration*
Only if Bay would have signed, and there's no reason to believe that he would have.
What SZ said in post #6 was pretty much spot on. No matter what NH did, they'd have to do a complete rebuild. So he traded Nady and Bay for some fliers on guys who might be useful. If even one of the guys acquired in those deals pans out, that's one more guy than they had in the minors at the time.
One cannot overstate how craptacular the entire minor league system was when David Littlefield left. There were maybe 2 or 3 players with any value at all.
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