Well, I'm hesitant to rip a team that just won the World Series...but this is dissapointing. The Phillies appear to have depth in the minors at both starting pitching and in the outfield, but no one really knocking at the door other than Happ.

Both players would have been ideal as one-year stopgaps, even with slightly (or in Burrell's case, largely) inflated salaries.
Moyer, I think will be signed, but this certainly gives him more leverage, and I can't imagine he would get much more from an arbitrator. I suppose the team felt arb would cost them either way, having to pay the players or a possible 3 first round selections plus 2 sandwich picks. As a fan, I love the idea of stocking up on first rounders, but the initial outlay of bonuses might have caused some problems, especially if the team wanted to bust slot again like they did this year.

For '09, I think there is a strong chance we see an OF next year of Vic, Werth, and a platoon of Jenkins with Mayberry, a RH journeyman, or maybe even Michael Taylor. Rotation, sans Moyer, would be Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Happ and Carrasco/Kendrick/Eaton(!). Too early to get gloomy, but a multiple year deal with someone like Ibanez that blocks the OF would be a bad start.

If you don't want to bust slot, you don't have to do so. Seems to me picks are options and options always have value (well, almost always).

I'm beginning to wonder if declining arbitration is the owner's new move to flood the market with FA's, thereby (in theory) driving down the cost of all the less-than-top-tier FA's by having too much supply. Because there's a lot of curious arbitration moves this year (and these are two).

I don't get this. It's only a one year deal right?
It's not a giant sunk cost if either one of these guys accepts arb and lays an egg. More likely they'd have both declined, but if they decline, are the phillies prohibited from signing them?

I'm beginning to wonder if declining arbitration is the owner's new move to flood the market with FA's, thereby (in theory) driving down the cost of all the less-than-top-tier FA's by having too much supply. Because there's a lot of curious arbitration moves this year (and these are two).

You may be right - and you're most certainly right about the many curious arbitration moves... The Cubs declined to offer Kerry Wood arbitration - perhaps this was a 'fare thee well' gift to make it easier for him to sign elsewhere or perhaps they were worried he'd accept - but that seemed like a no brainer to me. Someone is going to give him 3-4 years.

Of course, the White Sox offered arbitration to Orlando Cabrera, so go figure...

Moyer, I think will be signed, but this certainly gives him more leverage, and I can't imagine he would get much more from an arbitrator.

Moyer was making $6M this year. Given that he's coming off a 16-7 season, with an ERA of 3.71 (118 ERA+), he'd almost definitely get a raise from an arbitrator. I'd say it's not unreasonable to expect that he could get up to about $12M, especially with the deals given to other pitchers over the last couple seasons.

Given the recession, players may want shorter term deals, thinking that they'll get more when the economy improves. So they may be more apt to accept arbitration and try again next year. For example maybe Wood would have gotten something like 3/$30M in a normal year, but this year may only get something like 3/$18. So he may be tempted to accept arb and try to get $10M from the Cubs or some such thing. The numbers are totally made up. Another possibility is that the owners are planning to use the recession as an excuse to collude.

It could just be the clubs prefer the long-term risks from lost draft picks to the short-term risk of unfavorable arbitration decisions. Or maybe they feel they know what players will command in arbitration and are deciding that they don't want them for that price?

As to Moyer, the Phillies may have decided that he only wants to play in Philadelphia,given his age no other team will offer the two years that might sway him, so the Phillies can negotiate a one year deal at less then the number an arbitrator would choose. As to Burrell,they might just not want to pay him $14-16 MM for one year.

Finally, if the country's macro economic problems result in a significant shift in the numbers being offered to players, this change won't be fully reflected in arbitration decisions until the 2010 arbitration season. Teams might not want to be paying per arbitration awards, when the "open" market may be down 20-30 %.

Cubs declined to offer Kerry Wood arbitration - perhaps this was a 'fare thee well' gift to make it easier for him to sign elsewhere

That's almost definitely what this is. They don't have a spot for him, but they like him enough so that they don't want to hamper him in any way.

Of course, the White Sox offered arbitration to Orlando Cabrera, so go figure...

I'm a bit worried he might take it.

The other day, someone asked what the Sox would do if they moved Jermaine Dye. Well, it looks like they'll be able to go after Dunn, Burrell, or Abreu if that happens. I wouldn't mind seeing Pat Burrell in a White Sox uniform.

All this means that the trade market for guys like Jermaine Dye is going to be really weak.

More likely they'd have both declined, but if they decline, are the phillies prohibited from signing them?

No. In some prior versions of the CBA there was a provision that prohibited teams that didn't offer arbitration to a player from signing that player before May 1. There is no such provision in the current CBA.

But here's an interesting provision, XX.B.5:

(a) Clubs shall be limited in the number of Type A and B Players, as defined below, they may subsequently sign to contracts. ... If there are from 39 to 62 such Players, no Club may sign more than three Type A or B Players. ... There shall be no restrictions on the number of unranked Players that a Club may sign to contracts.

(b) Irrespective of the provisions of subparagraph (a) above, a Club shall be eligible to sign at least as many Type A and B Players as it may have lost through Players having become free agents under this Section at the close of the season just concluded.

By my count there are 51 Type A and B players in the free agent pool this year. So the general cap on signings is 3 Type A/B players for any one team. Exceptions to this are:

Dodgers 6
Angels 5
Brewers 4
Diamondbacks 4
Yankees 4

I remember a month ago, when it was surprisingly announced that Moyer was a Type A free agent, some people were saying it was too bad he wouldn't have a choice of where to end his career, because nobody would want to give up those draft picks for him, so he'd be stuck back with the Phillies. So this is probably them building up good will by giving him freedom to re-sign or not to re-sign.

That's almost definitely what this is. They don't have a spot for him, but they like him enough so that they don't want to hamper him in any way.

Oh, maybe this is the same thing I said.

So this is probably them building up good will by giving him freedom to re-sign or not to re-sign.

By not offering him arbitration, the Phillies are not eligible to re-sign Moyer I think until May. This guarantees that he'll be elsewhere.

By not offering him arbitration, the Phillies are not eligible to re-sign Moyer I think until May. This guarantees that he'll be elsewhere.

I am not sure but I don't think it works like that anymore.

By not offering him arbitration, the Phillies are not eligible to re-sign Moyer I think until May. This guarantees that he'll be elsewhere.

Not anymore, as vi notes.

Not anymore, as vi notes.

Hm. Okay.

It's interesting that salary arbitration for impending free agents has pretty much achieved the opposite of its original intent, to the extent of forcing a rules change.

Don't really get this. Didn't Burrell just reject a two year extension? Isn't he almost certainly going to reject one year arbitration? Seems like they're throwing away a draft pick here.