Nick writes:

If [Webb] needs a significant surgical procedure, the Diamondbacks will be hesitant to pick up the 2010 option on his contract, which is worth $8.5 million. They instead could buy out the option for $2 million, making Webb a free agent.

I'd like your opinion on this:
Would you pick up Webb's option for 2010, even if he has surgery on his shoulder?
Of course, depends on the surgery, but let's say the doctors say he'll be ready for spring training.
Would you pay him $6.5M ($8.5M option minus $2M buyout) to bring him back in 2010?

To me, it seems like a no-brainer that the Dbacks should bring him back.
But Nick seems to question that. Your thoughts?

I really hate fantasy baseball.

1) Jose Reyes
2) CC Sabathia
3) Brandon Webb
4) Adam Dunn
5) Joe Mauer
6) Scott Kazmir

Also Rickie Weeks in the 10th round.

/whine

Given the type of pitcher Webb is where velocity is considerably less important (especially since he's gone with the change as primary off-speed), it'd be plain stupid not to pick up 6.5 million if you are reasonably sure he can actually throw the ball. It wouldn't be a Jason Schmidt/Mark Mulder situation where yeah he can technically throw the ball, but he can't get MLB hitters out type of deal---or at the very least that probability is much diminished.

Given Garland cost them $6.5M (or something close), I'd pick up the option. The odds of them being able to put that money to better use on the free agent starting pitching market are pretty low, since good starters don't come that cheap anymore.

Well, given that Eric #### Byrnes is costing them $11M next year, the Dbacks should pick up the option AND give Webb a huge bonus on top.
Every time I see Eric Byrnes hit another pop up, I think to myself, WTF were the Dbacks thinking? [/rant]
But yes, like I posted earlier, picking up the option is a no brainer to me... We'll see, I guess.

It's sad to hear that Webb could have thrown his last pitch in an Arizona uniform. If he does miss the rest of the season, I would pick up the option if the doctors said he was going to be back by the 1st of:

March- Yes
April- Yes
May- Yes
June- Yes
July-Yes
August- No
September- No

The case could be made for August as well, I suppose, as 2 months of a top pitcher is likely worth $6.5 million. However, I've been assuming that it will take him a month to get re-acclimated to the majors. That may or may not be a safe assumption. No matter when they say he'll be back, it is somewhat risky to pick up the option because he could have a setback or may never be the same. However, the option is pretty cheap, so it's probably worth the risk as long as the doctors say he would be around for more than a couple months.

I don't think the contract situation is that binary. I assume what will happen is that Byrnes will speak with Webb and his agent, and they'll try to come up with some sort of incentive-y contract to replace the option year. This may not work out, but I don't think it's a matter of merely deciding whether to pick up the option.

I think #7 has it right, though it probably depends on the severity of the injury. Another approach is to actually extend the contract in some way -- say a vesting option for 2011 that wouldn't take a lot to vest. Say something like: $5 M guaranteed for 2010 (possibly with some incentives) and a $10 M option for 2011 (with a $2-3 M buyout) that vests with 100 IP. So worst-case scenario he still gets $7-8 in 2010 and he gets at least $15 over 2010-11 if he comes back at all healthy. Fiddle with the numbers a bit and I think there's a package in there that both sides would accept.

But the issue is that this is a shoulder injury and pitchers almost never come back close to full strength from shoulder injuries. If this was the elbow, sure you roll the dice on him. But if this is serious, Webb might well be lucky to be Jon Garland. There's always Chris Carpenter as the counter-example of course.

There's also the issue of whether the D-Backs think they can contend in 2010-11 as well as Webb's popularity.

I think #7 has it right, though it probably depends on the severity of the injury. Another approach is to actually extend the contract in some way -- say a vesting option for 2011 that wouldn't take a lot to vest. Say something like: $5 M guaranteed for 2010 (possibly with some incentives) and a $10 M option for 2011 (with a $2-3 M buyout) that vests with 100 IP. So worst-case scenario he still gets $7-8 in 2010 and he gets at least $15 over 2010-11 if he comes back at all healthy. Fiddle with the numbers a bit and I think there's a package in there that both sides would accept.

I'm not seeing the appeal from Webb's perspective. His focus has to be getting healthy and then landing a big money long-term deal, not securing a guarantee of "just" another $10-12M while locking himself in for 2011. He's already guaranteed at least $2M for the 2010 season, so guaranteeing only $3M more isn't all that appealing. And if he shows himself to be healthy, the Dbacks get him for a bargain in 2011?

If I'm Webb's agent, I would strongly urge him not to agree to any deal that locks up Webb beyond 2010 while he's hurt. If the Dbacks don't want to pick up the 2010 option as is, then my advice would be that he look forward to what he can get on the open market. Webb is easily one of the 10 best starting pitchers in MLB today when healthy.

If the Dbacks buyout his option for $2M, then he can do better than just $3M from a new team if he's got any shot at being healthy in 2010 (Penny got $5M/1yr from Boston, Smoltz got $5.5M/1yr from Boston, even Pavano got $1.5M from Cleveland and he hadn't been healthy in a half of decade!). And then if he is healthy and effective for even just the second part 2010, then he's got a good shot at landing a multiyear deal. If not, then he can sign another one-year deal for 2011 and beyond. And when he's healthy, Webb's established level is quite a bit higher than Penny and he's 10 years young than Smoltz. $5M/yr guaranteed would seem to be on the low-end of what he could expect to get as a 1 yr deal for 2010 on the open-market (plus he gets to pocket the $2M buyout from Arizona).

In my estimation, a $2M increase in base pay plus a below-market option for 2011 does not come close to compensating Webb for giving up a year of free agency. Obviously it's easy to not be particularly risk-averse when it's someone else's money, but given that Webb has already made over $20M in his career, it's not like he needs the seed money for the trust fund that will support him and his family for the rest of his life.

Respectfully, it's not a matter of needing to massage the numbers to something slightly more favorable to Webb: the whole concept of locking himself into a one-year deal for 2011 (while lowering his base pay for 2010?) makes absolutely no sense for him unless he is incredibly risk-averse.

And that being said, the Dbacks are absolutely nuts if they won't spend $6.5M (net) to bring Webb back for any part of 2010 unless their team doctor is 110% convinced that he won't be healthy/effective at all in 2010 or beyond. And if that's the case, why would they offer what you're suggesting?

Every time I see Eric Byrnes hit another pop up, I think to myself, WTF were the Dbacks thinking? [/rant]

Oh, come on - you know exactly what the D-Backs were thinking. His contract extension was a decision weighted toward marketing rather than baseball.

I'd pick up the option, and see if you can trade him in the off season.

There will be a market for Webb in the off season if he's healthy.

Heck, if D'Backs decline the option, the Red Sox will just sign him in the off season for a $5 million with some incentives.

Not good, not good at all... Shoulder surgery for Webb looking likely

Shoulder surgery appears to be a strong possibility for Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon Webb, who on Tuesday underwent his second MRI in the past week and met later in the day with team physician Dr. Michael Lee.

"We met and discussed options," General Manager Josh Byrnes said. "Everyone wants to be sure he takes the right course of action."

One possibility appears to be surgery to repair his labrum, a procedure that would require a nine-month rehab process.