Steve Phillips is absolutely right in that, if the current pace continues, there will be 1,000 fewer HRs in 2008 than there were in 2006. But the "current pace" of April and May hardly ever continues through the rest of the year. The last time it did was... well, 2006, when April/May HR rates were abnormally high.



Phillips might have a point, however. The April/May HR/PA rate was relatively low in 2007, and the Rest-Of-Season HR/PA rate was relatively low as well. That season ended with 4,957 HR, the first time since 1997 that there were fewer than 5,000 HR. And 2008 is already behind that pace.

I don't know if testing has made a difference, but the 2007 HR rates were low relative to recent history, and it wasn't just an April/May thing. If last year's June-Sep rate repeats this year, there will be roughly 500 fewer HR in 2008 than there were in 2006. So maybe Steve Phillips is half right.

I agree with the point that Phillips shouldn't be projecting April/May rates through the rest of the year, and that he shouldn't try to guess at what is causing the "effects" he sees in those projections. But there could be some merit to the argument that there has been a drop in HR rate that we should expect to persist.