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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, May 15, 2008Portfolio: Jelveh: Baseball Ex-SteroidsAlways good to hear from Steve Phillips...who’s looking more and more like John Slattery every noisy day.
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My BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsNewsblog: AZ Snakepit: McLennan: Ken Levine: Worst Commentator Ever? (38 - 11:31pm, Mar 11) Last: Greg Franklin Newsblog: Finger: Polanco's Worth Supercedes Mere Statistics (3 - 11:26pm, Mar 11) Last: Crispix Attacks is an antique dinosaur old cripple Newsblog: Jason Kendall names Brian Giles, Bobby Crosby in connection to Adderall (19 - 11:14pm, Mar 11) Last: AROM Newsblog: Torii Hunter upset about way he's portrayed in USA Today article (226 - 10:57pm, Mar 11) Last: My Grate Friend, Peason Sox Therapy: CFBPS 2010
(30 - 10:47pm, Mar 11) Last: Crispix Attacks is an antique dinosaur old cripple |
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HR/PA
Year Mar/Apr/May RestOfSeason
2008 2.32%
2007 2.46% 2.71%
2006 2.88% 2.85%
2005 2.58% 2.75%
2004 2.76% 2.95%
Phillips might have a point, however. The April/May HR/PA rate was relatively low in 2007, and the Rest-Of-Season HR/PA rate was relatively low as well. That season ended with 4,957 HR, the first time since 1997 that there were fewer than 5,000 HR. And 2008 is already behind that pace.
I don't know if testing has made a difference, but the 2007 HR rates were low relative to recent history, and it wasn't just an April/May thing. If last year's June-Sep rate repeats this year, there will be roughly 500 fewer HR in 2008 than there were in 2006. So maybe Steve Phillips is half right.
I agree with the point that Phillips shouldn't be projecting April/May rates through the rest of the year, and that he shouldn't try to guess at what is causing the "effects" he sees in those projections. But there could be some merit to the argument that there has been a drop in HR rate that we should expect to persist.
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