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Sunday, August 16, 2009

Posnanski: You can’t believe your eyes with Betancourt’s defense

You know when my left eye gets to jumpin’, whoa, I don’t know which way to go...and neither does Yuniesky.

And Betancourt? Well, according to the Dewan Plus/Minus system, Yuniesky Betancourt on the Royals has been the worst defensive shortstop in the history of the world. No, I’m not exaggerating. The worst. In his first 27 games, Betancourt is a minus-15. I’m going to say that another way: According to the system, an average shortstop — not a good one, mind you, just an average one — would have made 15 more plays than Betancourt did in his first month.

Or another way: If you stretched that out over, say, 150 games, the system says he would make EIGHTY-THREE fewer plays than the average shortstop. It’s unheard of. It’s lunacy. Nobody compares. I e-mailed Dewan to double-check the numbers — these can’t be right. But … they check out. The computer using this unbiased data determines that Betancourt is covering less ground than a sleeper sofa.

...Dayton Moore has made it clear he doesn’t understand or buy these statistics — a position I seriously wish he would reconsider. You would like for the GM of the Royals to at least understand the statistics. But to be fair, lots of people don’t buy defensive statistics. Defense is a hard thing to quantify. There are so many factors — defensive positioning, the condition of the field, the speed of the runner, the brightness of the sun and so on and so on. It’s hard to crunch into numbers.

Maybe. But if I had to pick a side here, I’d definitely pick the side of the statistics. I’m watching the Royals play Saturday night, and I just saw Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera hit a five-hop ground ball about three steps to the left of Betancourt, who dived but could not reach the ball. My eyes tell me that he made a good effort but could not come up with the play.

But the stats tell me that even an average defensive shortstop gets the ball — maybe without diving. Add one more to the Betancourt minus column.

Repoz Posted: August 16, 2009 at 08:36 AM | 12 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsKansas City

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   1. Rough Carrigan  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 09:55 AM (#3293993)
But, more importantly, does Doug Mientkiewicz think Betancourt's a good fielder?
   2. frannyzoo  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 10:05 AM (#3294001)
I'd like to see a video reel of all these minuses put together. C'mon Royals Fan, we M's fans need some Betanporn.
   3. CFBF: Now With the Dan Werr Seal of Approval  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 11:42 AM (#3294091)
Then the next batter, Carlos Guillen, pounded a long home run, and I remembered that the Royals are in last place again and fading and none of it really matters anyway.

Poz knows how to end the column on a note of uplift, doesn't he?
   4. Swedish Chef  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 11:46 AM (#3294097)
Poz knows how to end the column on a note of uplift, doesn't he?

He could have noted that the Royals are now only 3.5 games behind in the Bryce Harper derby.
   5. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 07:34 PM (#3294401)
MGL has a lot to say about this column over on the Book Blog, but my position, which seems to be shared by Poz, is that the eyes back up the stats on Betancourt's substandard D.
   6. Harold  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 07:48 PM (#3294412)
MGL has a lot to say about this column over on the Book Blog, but my position, which seems to be shared by Poz, is that the eyes back up the stats on Betancourt's substandard D.

MGL is 100% right. Poz is ignoring the measurement error of these metrics in a short sample, and instead prorates it out for a whole season.
   7. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 08:13 PM (#3294428)
MGL is 100% right. Poz is ignoring the measurement error of these metrics in a short sample, and instead prorates it out for a whole season.

Yeah, but that's separate from the argument made in the excerpt above.
   8. Boomer  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 08:53 PM (#3294453)
He could have noted that the Royals are now only 3.5 games behind in the Bryce Harper derby.

I think you meant to say the Stephen Strasburg derby
   9. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 08:58 PM (#3294458)
I think you meant to say the Stephen Strasburg derby


Starsburg will sign. It's inconceivable that he wouldn't.
   10. Tripon  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 09:04 PM (#3294464)
It'll be more hilarious if Aaron Crow is the one that doesn't sign.
   11. Boomer  Posted: August 16, 2009 at 09:22 PM (#3294479)
Starsburg will sign. It's inconceivable that he wouldn't.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
   12. Spute  Posted: August 17, 2009 at 05:28 AM (#3294637)
I are inconceivable that I isn't make right word.
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