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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Post-Gazette: Inside the McLouth breakout

Warning! Zoonosis outbreak expected!

Nyjer Morgan, a September call-up, quickly captivated Tracy by making highlight-reel catches in center. Tracy not only benched McLouth but also wondered publicly how much better the Pirates might have been all season if Morgan had been promoted sooner.

McLouth, never one to complain publicly, did seek counsel back home. “It wasn’t easy for him, and we talked about it,” Rick McLouth said. “We were all pulling for Nyjer, and we still do. But for Nate to go right back to the bench there just didn’t seem fair. It made him wonder what he had to do.”

The key, as it played out, was turned by owner Bob Nutting in firing the Pirates’ entire management team, Tracy included, by year’s end.

New general manager Neal Huntington, as part of an exhaustive evaluation of all players over the winter, assigned a video assistant to splice together footage of every defensive play McLouth and Morgan made in 2007. And not just fly balls.

The determination, one that might have surprised more observers than Tracy a few months ago, was that McLouth was, in the words of one team official, “just as good, maybe better.”

Repoz Posted: May 06, 2008 at 07:32 AM | 23 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralPittsburgh

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   1. Mushmouth Posted: May 06, 2008 at 07:55 AM (#2770493)
"Breakout?"

Take two chill pills and call me in August.
   2. AROM Posted: May 06, 2008 at 08:13 AM (#2770497)
That's the exact approach I've written here that teams should use to evaluate outfielders. The PBP systems are great, but they don't always agree with each other. Given how much a CF costs relative to a video guy and a sabermetrician, I'd want to know exactly why uzr loves a player that Dewan hates.
   3. Arva Posted: May 06, 2008 at 08:28 AM (#2770502)
McLouth is a legitimately good hitter, though I'm not sure he's this good. It should have been apparent to anyone that he's a better player than Nyjer Morgan. He's defense isn't rated well, but his O+D combo far outstrips the slap hitters he's competed against the past few years in Duffy, Davis, and Morgan.
   4. kevin Posted: May 06, 2008 at 08:36 AM (#2770508)
It looks like Huntington seems to have an idea of how to evaluate talent, which bodes well for the Pirates going forward.
   5. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 06, 2008 at 08:40 AM (#2770511)
"It looks like Huntington seems to have an idea of how to evaluate talent, which bodes well for the Pirates going forward."

Step 1: Pay no attention to what Jim Tracy thinks.
   6. AROM Posted: May 06, 2008 at 08:50 AM (#2770515)
Huntington's got help from Dan Fox now as well.

No, McLouth isn't going to hit like Brian Giles in his prime for the rest of the year, but I had him pegged as a breakout candidate, thinking that with his blend of skills (including an unreal SB%) that he'd be a run scoring machine if they ever let him be and lead off for a full season.
   7. sotapop Posted: May 06, 2008 at 09:51 AM (#2770556)
He batted .514 as a senior and went 51 for 51 in steals, but still was not a consensus top choice as Michigan's best amateur: He shared the state's Mr. Baseball honors and was honorable mention on USA Today's All-America list.



OK, even for HS, that's pretty amazing, both the average and the steals. you'd think at least once the pitcher would have guessed right and picked him off.
This Mr. Baseball thing made me curious... the guy he shared the title with was one Scott Koerber, in 2000.
Previous winners include Drew Henson (1998), Derek Jeter (1992) and apparently the one and only J.J. Putz in 1995. Couldn't believe it took him so long to reach the majors, but it checks out.
I hope the 2006 winner makes the bigs, for the announcers' sake if nothing else. His name is Dale Cornstubble.
   8. AROM Posted: May 06, 2008 at 09:58 AM (#2770561)
OK, even for HS, that's pretty amazing, both the average and the steals. you'd think at least once the pitcher would have guessed right and picked him off.


I wonder how rare that is. I wasn't ever anything close to a prospect, but my first CS did not occur until I was 30 years old playing in an amateur league. My experience was that little league and HS catchers can't throw, though a fast player in HS is probably as fast as he'll ever be.
   9. WTM Posted: May 06, 2008 at 10:29 AM (#2770590)
Pay no attention to what Jim Tracy thinks.

It says a lot that the two guys Tracy buried--McLouth and Doumit--are both enjoying possible breakout seasons, while the two he preferred--Morgan and Paulino--both are looking more and more like the marginal players they are. I think Tracy might actually have been dumber than Littlefield.
   10. Carmona My House (Crispix Attacks) Posted: May 06, 2008 at 10:39 AM (#2770602)
The guy he REALLY preferred was Chris Duffy, whose career may actually be over.

I really like Morgan, I hope he can stick around as a backup. In spring training he was heard referring to center field as "Morgantown". He has old-school stirrups. And despite being a black guy named "Nyjer Jamid Morgan" from California, he was a late bloomer baseball-wise because until age 20 he was concentrating on another sport -- ice hockey.
   11. sotapop Posted: May 06, 2008 at 11:00 AM (#2770625)
hmmm. thanks AROM. I'll stand corrected on that. I haven't watched much HS baseball -- tho I did go and see Justin Upton's last HS playoff game. but he just hit the ball over the fence -- no chance to steal...
   12. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: May 06, 2008 at 11:03 AM (#2770629)
I wonder how rare that is.

10 for 10 is probably pretty common. But 51 for 51 is sick. That's not just stealing second, it couldn't be.
   13. Elvis Posted: May 06, 2008 at 11:28 AM (#2770644)
A .500 average in high school is great but it's hardly rare. Just in the first draft I checked, 1999, Josh Hamilton batted .514, Corey Myers batted .560. B.J. Garbe batted .500, Ryan Christianson batted .519, Rick Asadoorian batted .500, Vince Faison batted .531 and Jason Repko batted .581
   14. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 06, 2008 at 11:32 AM (#2770653)
OK, even for HS, that's pretty amazing, both the average and the steals.

Shawon Dunston hit .790 his senior year of high school.

http://web.baseballhalloffame.org/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080103&content_id=5922&vkey=hof_news
   15. Carmona My House (Crispix Attacks) Posted: May 06, 2008 at 11:34 AM (#2770655)
And it's easier for an actual prospect to have insane high school batting stats if he comes from a cold-weather baseball non-hotbed like Whitehall, Michigan, which appears to be a sort of lakeside resort town frequented by people from Grand Rapids. Big fish in a small pond, if you will.
   16. Deadball Posted: May 06, 2008 at 12:08 PM (#2770689)
And it's easier for an actual prospect to have insane high school batting stats if he comes from a cold-weather baseball non-hotbed like Whitehall, Michigan, which appears to be a sort of lakeside resort town frequented by people from Grand Rapids. Big fish in a small pond, if you will.


So my two stolen bases against Morton High School in Berwyn, Illinois back in 1987 have to be taken with a grain of salt? That's not even mentioning the time I stole second standing up against Glenbard West because the dumbass pitcher forgot I was there and threw from a windup.

My problem wasn't skills, it was opportunity. Had I played in California, I'd have had five career bags, easy.

Oh, you said "actual prospect". Sorry...
   17. AROM Posted: May 06, 2008 at 12:22 PM (#2770711)
A .500 average in high school is great but it's hardly rare. Just in the first draft I checked, 1999, Josh Hamilton batted .514, Corey Myers batted .560. B.J. Garbe batted .500, Ryan Christianson batted .519, Rick Asadoorian batted .500, Vince Faison batted .531 and Jason Repko batted .581


Sean Forman hasn't integrated HS stats into B-Ref, at least not yet, so it's impossible to say, but my guess is there are 1000 kids every year who hit .500 or better in high school. Most of them are not even prospects. Part of it is sample size, given a few hundred thousand kids playing every year (just a guess, I'm not sure how many exactly), a bunch who are true .300 hitters in HS will get lucky and go 17-34 or something.

Then there's the liklihood that you can't translate these stats anyway, take two kids who are true .500 hitters in HS (pretend you have some way of knowing this), one might be a prospect and the other might be completely incapable of hitting advanced pitching.
   18. DL from MN Posted: May 06, 2008 at 12:36 PM (#2770731)
Joe Mauer struck out once during his 4 year high school career, and hit .605 during his senior season. He also had a 7 game Home Run streak. He played against the top competition in the state also which makes a huge difference. I agree, high school baseball sample sizes, especially in cold weather states, are tiny.
   19. Sparkles Peterson Posted: May 06, 2008 at 12:57 PM (#2770752)
Dunston also had a ton of steals his senior year without any CS. I no longer have the baseball card that had the exact number though.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: May 06, 2008 at 03:56 PM (#2770959)
How easily everyone forgets my 16 for 20 with 5 walks season in Lincolnwood rec league slow-pitch softball!! Surely you remember my stunning 4-walk performance in our glorious playoff victory.

No, seriously, the guy threw me only one strike (and only one other close pitch) in 4 PA. Trust me, I was up there hacking in that last PA (we had the game in hand) but I got nothing within 2 feet of the plate (I have my standards!).

I know it couldn't be more meaningless, but it was cool making only 4 outs all "year".
   21. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: May 06, 2008 at 04:01 PM (#2770966)
How easily everyone forgets my 16 for 20 with 5 walks season in Lincolnwood rec league slow-pitch softball!! Surely you remember my stunning 4-walk performance in our glorious playoff victory.

Was Benito Santiago batting behind you?
   22. MM1f Posted: May 06, 2008 at 08:07 PM (#2771197)
"10 for 10 is probably pretty common. But 51 for 51 is sick. That's not just stealing second, it couldn't be."

I only got caught stealing once in HS and I stole almost every time I got on. I had some speed, by HS standards or regular guy standards, but not by "pro athlete" standards. It can be done.
   23. MM1f Posted: May 06, 2008 at 08:15 PM (#2771212)
"This Mr. Baseball thing made me curious... the guy he shared the title with was one Scott Koerber, in 2000.
Previous winners include Drew Henson (1998), Derek Jeter (1992) and apparently the one and only J.J. Putz in 1995. Couldn't believe it took him so long to reach the majors, but it checks out."

Hm, Koerber is actually in the minors right now.

I'm sure he was a pretty dominant HS player. He was a 4-year starter as a hitter at Mich St and a pretty good one too. 175 hits in 166 games with 20 homers. .352/.456/.608 with 7 homers and 11 doubles in 40 games as a senior. BAs of 285, 322, 315 and 352. Didn't pitch until he was an upperclass man, an wasn't very good, but struck out 37 in 39 career IP.
Cubs signed him as an undrafted free agent for his arm and hes actually done pretty well as a minor league reliever.

I'm sure he was a mighty beastly two-way HSer.
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