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Friday, December 18, 2009

Price: Damon a Met? It’s not that crazy

Is it cyanide fishing season yet?

When I first heard the Yanks were about the sign Nick Johnson and say goodbye to Johnny Damon last night, my mind immediately went into “If I were Omar, what would I do?” mode.

...• In that 24-hour window I call the agent for Mark DeRosa and see if he would take a two-year deal to be our left fielder. If he balks, I would call Boras back and see if Damon would consider a 2-year, $16M offer with incentives for a third year. If Boras laughs me off the phone, I shift the conversation to Holliday, while at the same time letting him know that we are close to pulling our offer for Bay, and may go with a Xavier Nady type for 2010 and gear up for 2011 (maybe, as ChillieJet say) make a run at Carl Crawford. This would not come as good news to Boras, because as much as the Mets stink, he needs the New York money, or the threat of it, to drive the market.

• At the end of the 24 hours, I either have Bay or I don’t. If I have him at four years, great. If not, I let my fan base know that I tried, but don’t want to give the guy five years. Either that, or I say something about patience and hope they buy it.

• Then I focus on DeRosa and Damon. Both are good team guys and both - while their annual salary might be a little higher than they deserve - won’t hamstring my payroll for more than 2 (or possibly 3) years. Really, I think signing Damon, while risky, is not a horrible move. It would give the Mets some personality, some veteran leadership and a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the order. It also wouldn’t sit well with some Yankee fans, which is never a bad thing.

Repoz Posted: December 18, 2009 at 07:49 AM | 42 comment(s)
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   1. bobm  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 09:29 AM (#3416695)
"'If I were Omar, what would I do?' ... Both ... won’t hamstring my payroll for more than 2 (or possibly 3) years."

If you're Omar, I doubt you're the Mets' GM in 2-3 years. The Wilpons' budget constraints prevent him from spending towards a real "win now" drive, however.
   2. Lassus  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 09:53 AM (#3416705)
Damon a Met? It’s not that crazy

No, but it is that stupid.
   3. what the hell, just use your initials or something  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 10:02 AM (#3416712)
It’s not that crazy

But is it idiotic?
   4. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 10:07 AM (#3416715)
Stop saying that Omar Minaya only signs half-Thai players.
   5. RB in NYC (Now with Time-Consuming New Job!)  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 10:09 AM (#3416716)
I shift the conversation to Holliday, while at the same time letting [Boras] know that we are close to pulling our offer for Bay, and may go with a Xavier Nady type for 2010 and gear up for 2011 (maybe, as ChillieJet say) make a run at Carl Crawford
How much credibility does Omar have for trying to claim he's going to wait out 2010 and see what free agents are out there for 2011? None? Less than none? Is there a figure less than none? Because that's what he has.

If I'm Boras and Omar told me he was thinking about waiting until 2011 and going after Crawford, I'd ask which team he plans to be the Asst. GM at when he goes after him.
   6. Lassus  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 10:13 AM (#3416719)
Stop saying that Omar Minaya only signs half-Thai players.

"Tiger Woods, citing new direction, accepts backup catcher position for New York Mets"
   7. Chris D  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 10:28 AM (#3416728)
Oh it's crazy all right.
   8. Textbook Editor  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 10:32 AM (#3416731)
I know the Phillies would love to see Damon playing LF for the Mets.
   9. snapper  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 10:47 AM (#3416744)
Wait, why is this stupid/crazy?

It all depends on price, of course, but Damon would be a pretty big upgrade if you let him displace Francoeur.

Even if he's a -10 LF, (and he projects better than that b/c last year was his only bad outing in LF) he's still a ~3 WAR player vs. 0-2 WAR for Francoeur.

If you can pay Damon ~$8M p.a. and save Francoeur's ~$4M, you're probably picking up ~2 WAR for $4M, which is a nice move.

I know the Phillies would love to see Damon playing LF for the Mets.

They didn't do too bad with Ibanez out there.
   10. Jack Flynn  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:03 AM (#3416747)
It all depends on price, of course, but Damon would be a pretty big upgrade if you let him displace Francoeur.


That's the first problem. The man-crush that the Mets' front office has for Francouer is too great. I'm not sure there is a right fielder in baseball they would replace him with. Well, maybe Roberto Clemente, because he is a Lati ... oh, never mind.

Could Damon and his noodle arm handle left field at New Ebbets? I think so, and I agree that you have to see the price tag before making any real declarations. Would Johnny Damon really want to play for the New York Mets, after spending most of the previous decade with winners in Boston and in New York? I seriously doubt it.
   11. Textbook Editor  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:03 AM (#3416748)
They didn't do too bad with Ibanez out there.


Exactly. The move would level the playing field. The real danger for the Phillies is the Mets sign Holliday, not that the Mets sign Damon.
   12. PreservedFish  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:09 AM (#3416752)
I don't really like the idea, but my brain is telling me that Damon would be a solid option. He's a good hitter, gets on base, good baserunner ... noodle arm, but whatever, he's at least as good as Sheffield/Alou/Floyd/Cedeno/Agbayani/Rickey, everyone that has played there in the last decade except Endy.


This is assuming that he would be available for a contract similar to what Moises Alou signed.

It all depends on price, of course, but Damon would be a pretty big upgrade if you let him displace Francoeur.


Not worth talking about. French is entrenched in rightfield.
   13. snapper  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:10 AM (#3416753)
Would Johnny Damon really want to play for the New York Mets, after spending most of the previous decade with winners in Boston and in New York? I seriously doubt it.

Well, which definite playoff contenders are looking to drop serious coin on a LF right now?

If the Mets offered 2/20 I'm pretty sure they'd get him. Maybe a lot less if they wait him out.
   14. billyshears  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:11 AM (#3416755)
Why do people think Mark DeRosa is the answer to anything?
   15. Jack Flynn  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:22 AM (#3416763)
If the Mets offered 2/20 I'm pretty sure they'd get him. Maybe a lot less if they wait him out.


I don't know, it just feels like it would be kind of embarrassing for a baseball player to go from a Yankees team that just won the World Series to a Mets team that ... well, I'm not sure how to describe the Mets these days. Rudderless?

I'm a lifelong Mets fan and I think I'd question the motives of any baseball player who would go from the Yankees to the Mets if he had any other viable option.
   16. snapper  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:23 AM (#3416764)
Why do people think Mark DeRosa is the answer to anything?

Not a bad super-sub, but definitely shouldn't be starting in the OF.
   17. snapper  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:27 AM (#3416767)
I don't know, it just feels like it would be kind of embarrassing for a baseball player to go from a Yankees team that just won the World Series to a Mets team that ... well, I'm not sure how to describe the Mets these days. Rudderless?

I'm a lifelong Mets fan and I think I'd question the motives of any baseball player who would go from the Yankees to the Mets if he had any other viable option.


The motive is money. The same motive that drives 95% of free agent signings. These guys go where the most money is. There's no shame in taking the Mets money. It's just as green as anybody else's.

Realistically, none of the definite contenders, except the Yankees, have a need for Damon. He has to go to a possible contender, or take a discount deal to go back to NYY.

I'm sure he'd rather play for the Mets or Braves or Giants for 2/20 than the Yankees for 1/8 or 2/14.
   18. Gern Blanston  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:27 AM (#3416768)
"Tiger Woods, citing new direction, accepts backup catcher position for New York Mets"

LoDuca taught him everything he knows.
   19. snapper  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:32 AM (#3416776)
LoDuca taught him everything he knows.

IIRC LoDuca's honeys were better looking too. Which is just sad for Tiger.
   20. what the hell, just use your initials or something  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:38 AM (#3416783)
French is entrenched in rightfield.

Entrenched fortifications have always worked out very well for the French.
   21. snapper  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 12:03 PM (#3416807)
Not worth talking about. French is entrenched in rightfield.

If this is true, then the Mets have no hope until Minaya is gone. HTF does a guy with a career 93 OPS+ get "entrenched" in a position?
   22. Lassus  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 12:09 PM (#3416814)
HTF does a guy with a career 93 OPS+ get "entrenched" in a position?

By having a 120 OPS+ hitting for you after his acquisition. I'm not saying it's the logical conclusion that I would support, but to throw up your hands in bewilderment at the thought process is ignoring human nature.

I also think it's a mistake to see him as unmovable, but if Frenchie puts up a 120 for this whole year, I feel like half the site is going to go Scanners on us.
   23. CHRIS CARTER IS FREE!(Met Fan Charlie)  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 01:40 PM (#3416898)
   24. snapper  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 01:54 PM (#3416919)
By having a 120 OPS+ hitting for you after his acquisition. I'm not saying it's the logical conclusion that I would support, but to throw up your hands in bewilderment at the thought process is ignoring human nature.

That's the level of analysis that would make me conclude the Mets have no hope with Minaya.

Nothing chnaged when he came to the Mets except he went on a hot streak. His underlying stats (plate discipline, swing rates, contact rates) didn't change he just put up a very lucky .343 BABIP vs. his career .307 and his unlucky .281 with Atlanta.

Any team that can't recognize this is not operating in the 21st century. A front-office has to operate at a level above knee-jerk fan reaction.
   25. CHRIS CARTER IS FREE!(Met Fan Charlie)  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 01:55 PM (#3416922)
#22 Love the imagery, Lassus
   26. KronicFatigue  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 02:13 PM (#3416938)
What about St Louis if they don't retain holliday?
   27. Weekly Journalist_  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 02:17 PM (#3416939)
The Mets need more good players. Johnny Damon is a good player. Why the hysterics?
   28. The District Attorney  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 02:28 PM (#3416956)
So what would this look like? I guess in an ideal world:

Reyes SS, Damon LF, Wright 3B, Beltran CF, ??? 1B, ??? C, Pagan RF, P, Castillo 2B

or in terms of what would most likely actually happen:

Reyes SS, Damon LF, Wright 3B, Beltran CF, ??? 1B, Frenchy RF, Bengie C, Castillo 2B, P

These lineups don't cut it in any way, shape, or form, IMHO. Especially now that Lackey -- the guy whom I think they needed most -- is out of play, the Mets have to do their absolute utmost to sign Holliday or Bay.

If that somehow fails to happen also, and it comes down to Pagan or Murphy in LF, then yeah, at that point Damon starts looking good. But, YEESH.
   29. what the hell, just use your initials or something  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 02:40 PM (#3416977)
With Milton Bradley apparently off the table, the Mets are starting to run out of crazy options.
   30. attaboy  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 03:08 PM (#3417025)
Damon, I am sure that I don't need to remind people on this board, his number were greatly inflated by where he played last year and that this will work in reverse if he is at Citifield.

FWIW, I dislike picking up a player who has a certain career level and (especially) late in his career finds a new plateau (first year of a OPS+ > 125). Home: .382 .533 .915 Away: .349 .446 .795 - And he is 36 Years old coming off his best year ever. Is he an upgrade, sure, but I'd rather take what I have and keep looking for a 1B or Pitcher to throw the money at rather than a player who peaked last year. He also has always suffered through injuries, at 36, coming off a career year, maybe he doesn't play through them as well! Youth!!
   31. PreservedFish  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 09:27 PM (#3417371)
Nothing chnaged when he came to the Mets except he went on a hot streak. His underlying stats (plate discipline, swing rates, contact rates) didn't change he just put up a very lucky .343 BABIP vs. his career .307 and his unlucky .281 with Atlanta.

Any team that can't recognize this is not operating in the 21st century. A front-office has to operate at a level above knee-jerk fan reaction.


I don't believe that the Mets are stupid enough to think that French is now a 120 OPS+ hitter. The decision is more in the nature of: "he hits the ball hard, he has potential, let's see what he can do." Given that the Mets have a huge number of issues with the team (black holes at catcher, first, and in the rotation, weak at leftfield, second, and bullpen) I think they just consider rightfield to be problem #7 or problem #10 and thus not really worth focusing on.
   32. snapper  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 09:52 PM (#3417376)
He also has always suffered through injuries, at 36, coming off a career year, maybe he doesn't play through them as well!

Damon? Injuries? I mean he doesn't play 160 games, more like 140-145, he needs some rest at his age.

But, he's exceeded 140 G's and 600 PAs every year since 1998. His record is nothing if not consistent.
   33. AJM  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:00 PM (#3417400)
This doesn't sound awful, probably because I've been subjected to Molina rumors all offseason.
   34. winthorp  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:04 PM (#3417402)
It's going to be hard for Damon, after the intense, spectral glare of his last two stops to play in total oblivion, I mean absolute obscurity, I mean essentially non-existence
   35. Downtown Bookie  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:12 PM (#3417408)
If the Mets offered 2/20 I'm pretty sure they'd get him. Maybe a lot less if they wait him out.


Why would Damon settle for only two years from a team that is considering giving three years to Bengie Molina?

DB
   36. snapper  Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:25 PM (#3417416)
Why would Damon settle for only two years from a team that is considering giving three years to Bengie Molina?

They can't be seriously considering that, can they?
   37. Dock Ellis on Acid  Posted: December 19, 2009 at 12:23 AM (#3417430)
I don't know what's funnier, the Mets offering two years to Bengie or Bengie asking for three.
   38. Misirlou's the kind of guy who laughs at a funeral  Posted: December 19, 2009 at 01:09 AM (#3417441)
I was just thinking today, if I could be a modern ballplayer, who would I want to be? And the answer I came up with was Johnny Damon. Good player, outside shot at the HOF, 2 rings, will earn in excess of $100 mil, recognizable enough to make some extra scratch outside of salary and get the hot babes, but not so recognizable to be hounded by the media. Good managerial fodder for the future. A low key hundred millionaire with future job security (if wanted). That suits me.
   39. Adequate Ballplayer  Posted: December 19, 2009 at 01:55 AM (#3417449)
Would Johnny Damon really want to play for the New York Mets, after spending most of the previous decade with winners in Boston and in New York? I seriously doubt it.


Well, Winner Johnny Damon was just more or less fired by the Yankees, so I'm thinking yes.
   40. Russlan thinks Jose Reyes pops up too much  Posted: December 19, 2009 at 03:09 AM (#3417462)
I don't know what's funnier, the Mets offering two years to Bengie or Bengie asking for three.

Pudge Rodriguez and Jason Kendall got two year contracts. Molina is a better player than those guys. And this is coming from a guy who is going to be depressed if the Mets sign Molina.
   41. Omar'sBlackCloud  Posted: December 19, 2009 at 07:19 AM (#3417486)
By having a 120 OPS+ hitting for you after his acquisition. I'm not saying it's the logical conclusion that I would support, but to throw up your hands in bewilderment at the thought process is ignoring human nature.

That's the level of analysis that would make me conclude the Mets have no hope with Minaya.

Nothing chnaged when he came to the Mets except he went on a hot streak. His underlying stats (plate discipline, swing rates, contact rates) didn't change he just put up a very lucky .343 BABIP vs. his career .307 and his unlucky .281 with Atlanta.

Any team that can't recognize this is not operating in the 21st century. A front-office has to operate at a level above knee-jerk fan reaction.


The Mets haven't done a single thing that makes me think they operate at or above the level indicated by your middle paragraph. Nothing that makes me think they're trying to build a team that's a coherent whole, nothing that makes me think they're picking up certain kinds of players (groundball pitchers) to complement other kinds of players (quick, good MIs), and certainly nothing that makes me think they've even heard of the phrase, "small sample size". The only sense I've gotten during Minaya's tenure is "ooh, shiny FA acquisition. Let's get 'im!" Or the most rudimentary attempt to fill what look to be holes.

Assuming he'll get something like 2/20 whether you pick up Damon depends on what you're trying to accomplish for 2010 and 2011. If it's to keep LF from being a sinkhole without overspending on Jason Bay there are worse moves you can make. If you pick up Arroyo and Harang and Brandon Phillips in some giant swap with the Reds, think you have a genuine chance of making the playoffs and only have 10 million left to bolster LF so that you don't have to gamble everything on Pagan repeating his career year Damon wouldn't be the worst choice you could make. IF you figure his game transfers well to Citi what other LFers out there are decent bets to put up a 3 WAR season? I wouldn't do it but if I squint and the context changes significantly I can see the logic.

In other thrilling Met news Davidoff in Newsday wrote the team concluded that Bay was a better fielder than Holliday in part because Bay played some CF for the Pirates. Anyone want to let the FO know that was in 2005?

Amazin'!

EDIT: WAR doesn't count baserunning or catcher defense. If you think Molina is a 2 WAR player, dock him at least half a win for being just about the worst baserunner in the majors (he's saved from being worse by the simple fact that he doesn't get on base much), knock off another 3.4 runs for defense (a credible estimate from driveline mechanics), and figure he'll lose another half a run due to age-related decline, Molina is a little above replacement level. And that's if he's healthy. I just don't see the point of signing him for 2/10 when Placido Polanco was available for $6m a year, or when the difference in AAV between Bay and Holliday is going to be around half of Molina's salary. It just seems to me like an extremely inefficient use of resources.
   42. AJM  Posted: December 19, 2009 at 07:57 AM (#3417489)
I was just thinking today, if I could be a modern ballplayer, who would I want to be?

Frank Catalanotto.
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