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Sunday, May 31, 2009

Pride of the Yankees: Jeter and Rose

Rose DeWitt, Amber Rose, Rose Will Monroe…those I can see. Pete Rose, no.

There’s only one thing I wanted to add - a comparison of Derek Jeter and Pete Rose in terms of hits. As you’ll see below, it’s a good comparison (thus far) because Jeter to this point in his career, in terms of games played, at bats, plate appearances, age, and hits, is at a very similar pace to where Rose was at a similar point in his career.

...Nevertheless, with Jeter regaining form this year and playing closer to his career levels (his OPS+ right now is 117, just 3 points below his career 120), it’s fair to think that Jeter can achieve a very rare hits total in his own right. Let’s do some projecting, comparing Jeter to Rose along the way, and taking into account that as Jeter ages, his abilities and playing time will likely diminish:

...2016 (age 42): This is as far as I will go with projecting Jeter still playing. It certainly wouldn’t be unheard of - Omar Vizquel, a career shortstop, is 42 and still playing, though he gives some defensive flexibility that Jeter will unlikely offer by this point, and even with that he’s had a very limited role this year. If Jeter is still playing, I imagine he will almost exclusively be a role player, and health will almost certainly be a concern. I’ll project 53 hits for him, bringing his career total to a nice round number - 3,640. Rose at age 42 had 121 hits, bringing his career total to 3,990. Rose’s 121 hits is pretty lofty considering his age, but with just a 69 OPS+ that year (1983), Rose was likely more of a drain than anything else on his team, especially considering he played 151 games (and thus would regularly weaken his team’s lineup). Rose would become a player-manager during the following season, and keep himself in the lineup with frequency over the next 2+ years in order to surpass Cobb, ultimately reaching 4,256 (and quite possibly over 4,300 if not for the 1981 strike).

Repoz Posted: May 31, 2009 at 07:50 PM | 7 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. Autobahn Posted: May 31, 2009 at 10:04 PM (#3201364)
Rose playing a lot of 1B and the outfield corners a lot certainly helps a lot.
   2. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: May 31, 2009 at 11:38 PM (#3201415)
Jeter won't have the option of putting himself in the lineup long after he sucks.
   3. Hugh Jorgan Posted: May 31, 2009 at 11:46 PM (#3201417)
Omar Vizquel, a career shortstop, is 42 and still playing, though he gives some defensive flexibility that Jeter will unlikely offer by this point

Wait, we have to wait until Jeter is 42 before he is unlikely to offer some defensive help? Automatic GG every year until then!
   4. Nathan Kunkel Posted: June 01, 2009 at 12:13 AM (#3201432)
Jeter won't have the option of putting himself in the lineup long after he sucks.

who says?
   5. Walt Davis Posted: June 01, 2009 at 12:59 AM (#3201457)
Jeter won't have the option of putting himself in the lineup long after he sucks.

This really is an unfair swipe at Rose. He started himself in the second half of 1984 during which he put up a 147 OPS+. He started himself in 1985 during which he put up "just" a 99 OPS+ with a 395 OBP. In 1986, he played about half a season and sucked.

You might think a 99 OPS+ "sucks" for a 1B but any season you'll find a number of such starting 1B. In 1985, Rose was basically in a group of 5 (out of 26) at the bottom of the starting rung. Rose's 1985 was as good or better than Carew's 1985 and I don't think I've ever heard anyone accuse Carew of hanging on just to get to 3000.

And even while Rose was chasing the hit record, he never stopped taking his walks. He broke the record in 1985, a season in which he had 107 hits ... and 86 walks ... a BA of 264 and an OBP of 395. He wasn't so obsessed with the record that he lost his focus.
   6. baudib Posted: June 01, 2009 at 01:50 AM (#3201491)
Good points, Walt. I'm tired of the bashing of Rose, the player.
   7. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: June 01, 2009 at 02:06 PM (#3201751)
Walt,
Thanks. I have to admit that I'd never really perused the numbers and had simply bought into the "Rose was a selfish bastard who played himself long after he deserved to be playing" cw.
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