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Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Primer Dugout 1-7-09

Happy Birthday to Johnny Mize.

Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: January 07, 2009 at 01:00 PM | 25 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralDugout

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 07, 2009 at 02:24 PM (#3045245)
Minor transactions:

Phillies sign 2B Marcus Giles

Mariners sign P Tyler Walker

Tigers sign OF Alexis Gomez

Yankees sign OF John Rodriguez

Royals re-sign P Roman Colon

Indians DFA 1B Michael Aubrey
   2. Guapo Posted: January 07, 2009 at 05:48 PM (#3045514)
Tonight on MLB Network:

"Baseball Seasons: 1995 - Baseball begins a process of healing its relationship with an outraged fan base, still seething after the cancellation of the 1994 Season."

I like the writeup- sounds like it could also show on the Soap Opera Network. Why does Outraged Fan Base always take Baseball back, anyway? Can't you see he's no good for you!
   3. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: January 07, 2009 at 06:05 PM (#3045536)
Inaugural Trivia: four times since the inception of the World Series, the Series champion has come from the same home state as the victorious Presidential candidate. (It didn't happen in 2008, to the dismay of both Cub fans and Tom Ridge supporters.)

Name those years.
   4. JJ1986 Posted: January 07, 2009 at 06:06 PM (#3045538)
I'm still holding out hope that Marcus Giles recovers and becomes a good player again, thus not being the biggest mistake I ever made in player evaluation.
   5. JJ1986 Posted: January 07, 2009 at 06:07 PM (#3045541)
Name those years.

72 should be one of them. I think that's the only one I'll be able to get.
   6. RJ in TO Posted: January 07, 2009 at 06:10 PM (#3045542)
Why does Outraged Fan Base always take Baseball back, anyway? Can't you see he's no good for you!


Especially since Baseball drinks too much, and has a drug problem. Outraged Fan Base should really know better.
   7. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: January 07, 2009 at 06:12 PM (#3045545)
I like the writeup- sounds like it could also show on the Soap Opera Network. Why does Outraged Fan Base always take Baseball back, anyway? Can't you see he's no good for you!

Work stoppages have never outraged me, they're just, for lack of a better word, a bummer. I always found soemthing else to do with my time. If MLB disappeared tomorrow, I'd probably be better off. I might finally learn German or read Proust or something. These fans who get all lathered up about it always struck me as kind of silly. Baseball hasn't stopped, just MLB.
   8. Dag Nabbit and his imaginary friends Posted: January 07, 2009 at 06:13 PM (#3045546)
Inaugural Trivia: four times since the inception of the World Series, the Series champion has come from the same home state as the victorious Presidential candidate. (It didn't happen in 2008, to the dismay of both Cub fans and Tom Ridge supporters.)

Yanks and FDR both won in 1932

Yanks and FDR both won in 1936

Lemme think . . .

Harding and the Indians both won in 1920.

Nixon and Oakland won in 1972.
   9. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: January 07, 2009 at 06:16 PM (#3045553)
JJ1986 gets the most recent election/WS exacta, and Dag Nabbit gets the remaining three.
   10. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: January 07, 2009 at 06:19 PM (#3045554)
I always found soemthing else to do with my time

I actually left the country in both '81 and '94. The trips had been scheduled anyway, of course, but seemed like they stopped baseball and I had no reason to stay in the States. I remember a story in the Corriere della Sera in '81: "Tonnellate di noccioline invedute nel sciopero del baseball USA." I knew it wasn't time to come home yet.
   11. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: January 07, 2009 at 06:20 PM (#3045557)
Especially since Baseball drinks too much, and has a drug problem. Outraged Fan Base should really know better.
But who would Outraged Fan Base find love with otherwise? Violent football? Eurotrash soccer? Even more hurtful hockey? It's baseball...or alone!
   12. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 07, 2009 at 07:19 PM (#3045645)
Trivia:

There were 23 relief pitchers active in 2008 who have started the ninth inning with a lead of 1-3 runs at least 100 times in their careers. Alphabetically, they are:

Borowski, Joe
Cordero, Chad
Cordero, Francisco
Fuentes, Brian
Gagne, Eric
Gordon, Tom
Guardado, Eddie
Hoffman, Trevor
Isringhausen, Jason
Jenks, Bobby
Jones, Todd
Lidge, Brad
Nathan, Joe
Papelbon, Jon
Percival, Troy
Rivera, Mariano
Rodriguez, Francisco
Ryan, B.J.
Smoltz, John
Street, Huston
Timlin, Mike
Valverde, Jose
Wagner, Billy

Of those 23 pitchers, which one has the highest average leverage in those situations, and which one has the lowest?

-- MWE
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 07, 2009 at 08:10 PM (#3045714)
A's DFA Joe Dillon

Royals sign C Vance Wilson
   14. The Essex Snead Posted: January 07, 2009 at 08:35 PM (#3045744)
Of those 23 pitchers, which one has the highest average leverage in those situations, and which one has the lowest?

Just taking a wild stab @ this...

Highest: Smoltz, John
Lowest: Wagner, Billy
   15. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: January 07, 2009 at 08:39 PM (#3045750)
I'm going to say the highest is Timlin, because he worked middle relief and closed in that time.

I'll go with K-Rod as the lowest.
   16. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 07, 2009 at 08:41 PM (#3045754)
Wild guess:

Highest: BJ Ryan
Lowest: Todd Jones.
   17. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 07, 2009 at 08:43 PM (#3045757)
Highest: Smoltz, John
Lowest: Wagner, Billy


Neither is correct. Smoltz's average leverage is pretty low, actually (although not the lowest). Wagner's right in the middle.

-- MWE
   18. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 07, 2009 at 08:45 PM (#3045763)
Timlin was a good guess for the highest. He is pretty high, but not at the top. The others are off.

Hint: Run environment has a lot to do with leverage.

-- MWE
   19. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: January 07, 2009 at 08:46 PM (#3045764)
But who would Outraged Fan Base find love with otherwise? Violent football? Eurotrash soccer? Even more hurtful hockey? It's baseball...or alone!


New York Giants, Boston Celtics, and UConn Huskies.
   20. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 07, 2009 at 08:48 PM (#3045770)
Hint: Run environment has a lot to do with leverage.

Hoffman for highest. And I have no idea, Valverde for lowest.

UConn Huskies

Did you watch the International Bowl? My God the first half was frustrating. Nice rally in the second half though and the defense looked really good.
   21. JJ1986 Posted: January 07, 2009 at 08:49 PM (#3045772)
Timlin was a good guess for the highest. He is pretty high, but not at the top. The others are off.

Hint: Run environment has a lot to do with leverage.

-- MWE


Guesses then,

Lowest - Hoffman
Highest - Guardado
   22. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: January 07, 2009 at 09:08 PM (#3045798)
Did you watch the International Bowl? My God the first half was frustrating. Nice rally in the second half though and the defense looked really good.


Of course. Five fumbles, but the Buffalo defense let Brown & Co. run all over them.
   23. ess eff Posted: January 07, 2009 at 09:11 PM (#3045800)
I'd put Rivera highest.

Of course, I've got no idea what you're asking.
   24. Adam S Posted: January 07, 2009 at 09:30 PM (#3045823)
Hoffman highest, Fuentes lowest?
   25. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 07, 2009 at 10:10 PM (#3045856)
JJ1986 is closer than Cowboy Popup, who has the park effect backward. Leverage tends to be compressed in low run scoring environments (the lows aren't as low and the highs aren't as high), because the negative impact of an out on win probability is fairly large, the positive impact of a on-base event isn't as large, and there are more outs than there are positive events. Leverage is still centered at about the same point, but the standard deviation is smaller and the spread at the ends tend to be lower in a pitcher's park.

Hence, Hoffman (who has spent all of his career pitching in pitcher's parks) has a relatively low average leverage, although not as low as does Eric Gagne. Timlin (and Papelbon) have high leverage, but not as high as does Francisco Cordero (mostly Texas and Cincy), who just beats out Brian Fuentes (Colorado).

-- MWE
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