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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Primer Dugout 4-29-08 (and random link of the day)

“A manifesto is a public declaration of principles and intentions, often political in nature, but may also be life stance related. However, manifestos relating to religious belief are rather referred to as credo.”

Jim Furtado Posted: April 29, 2008 at 10:52 AM | 27 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetrics

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   1. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: April 29, 2008 at 11:06 AM (#2762277)
Anyone watch Moose last night? I won't say he turned a corner, but he missed a couple bats on two sub 70 mph pitches.

Which I find amazing.
   2. rembini06 Posted: April 29, 2008 at 11:47 AM (#2762340)
Last night Adam Dunn singled with the bases loaded and didn't get an RBI. I wonder how often that has happened.
   3. andrewberg of udub law Posted: April 29, 2008 at 11:52 AM (#2762349)
He's not clutch enough.
   4. Repoz Posted: April 29, 2008 at 11:55 AM (#2762352)
Last night Adam Dunn singled with the bases loaded and didn't get an RBI.

And that came right after the announcers were ragging on him for lack of sac-flies.
   5. SoSH U at work Posted: April 29, 2008 at 11:59 AM (#2762356)
Last night Adam Dunn singled with the bases loaded and didn't get an RBI. I wonder how often that has happened.


I've always wondered what would happen if a guy lost a no-hitter that way.
   6. In what respect, Craig K? Posted: April 29, 2008 at 12:00 PM (#2762357)
Discussion question of the day:

You can have any five players in the professional leagues to start your team with. The rest of your will have to be made of replacement level players. Your goal is to win now and money is no object to whichever five you get.

Forget the specific names of players and all; what positions are the five stars? Do you get five ace starters? Do you get four ace starters and a shutdown closer? Do you get five top hitters? What do you do?
   7. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: April 29, 2008 at 12:12 PM (#2762368)
If it were the 1970s, Dan Rosenheck would reccommend that you pick up a shortstop. Something about the bar being low for SSs that decade. Not sure what the case would be today.
   8. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: April 29, 2008 at 12:14 PM (#2762374)
Forget the specific names of players and all

I would consider that to be 99% of the decision-making process, though.
   9. JJ1986 Posted: April 29, 2008 at 12:21 PM (#2762388)
I'd take a catcher and a shortstop and 2 ace pitchers. For the fifth, I'd probably take the best bat in the league regardless of where he played. Based on the real majors that would make VMart, Hanley, Santana, Webb and Pujols, although in reality I'd probably take Wright instead of Martinez.
   10. TOLAXOR Posted: April 29, 2008 at 12:28 PM (#2762401)
YOU KNOW WHAT???!!!


I NOTICED THAT BASEBALL TONIGHT HAS EVOLVED 'WEB GEMS' INTO 'KURK-GEMS' WHERE TIM KURKIJAKIN, KURKIMANJIN, KURKMENISTAN, HOWEVER YOU SPELLIT - GIVES US RANDOM FACTS ABOUT THE WEEK AND THEN ORESTES DESTRADA GIVES HIM A NOOGIE AND CALLS HIM A 'NERD'.

SO I WAS THINKING, IF THEY'RE REALLY FEELING BORED, AND FEEL THE NEED TO ENTERTAIN US, THE BASEBALL AUDIENCE IN NEW AND UNIQUE WAYS, WHAT ESPN REALLY NEEDS TO HAVE BASEBALL TONIGHT DO 'KRUK-GEMS'.

KRUK-GEMS COULD BE THIS 120 SECOND SEGMENT THAT'S KIND OF LIKE SHOW-AND-TELL FOR JOHN KRUK. HE COULD JUST BRING US HIS, LIKE, TOP 5 'THINGS' FROM THE WEEK THAT INTEREST HIM - AND THEY WOULDN'T EVEN HAVE TO BE BASEBALL RELATED!!!

HERE'S HOW I SEE IT GOING DOWN:

KARL: AND NOW IT'S TIME FOR THIS WEEK'S 'KRUK-GEMS' (QUE ROCK OR COUNTRY, OR COUNTRY/ROCK OR WHATEVER KRUKY WANTS KIND OF MUSIC)
THE SEGMENT OF OUR SHOW WHERE JOHN KRUK SHOWS US HIS TOP 5 FOR THIS WEEK. WHAT DO YOU HAVE FOR US, KRUCK?

KRUK: AT NUMBER FIVE THIS WEEK, IS THIS FREE BEER STEIN I GOT FROM MY LOCAL HOOTERS... THAT REMINDS ME OF THE TIME WHERE HAROLD REYNOLDS AND I WENT DOWN TO THAT HOOTERS, AND I DIDN'T KNOW IT BUT I HAD SOME WING SAUCE ON MY NOSE, AND WENT THROUGH THE WHOLE NIGHT WITH THIS DAB OF WING SAUCE RIGHT ON THE SCHNOZZ, HITTING ON ALL THE WAITRESSES AND STUFF. AND HAROLD NEVER ONCE TOLD ME... I HATE THAT GUY..

KRUK: AT NUMBER FOUR THIS WEEK IS A CHEETO I FOUND IN MY SOFA. I WAS LOOKING FOR THE REMOTE AND I WAS LIKE, HEY WHAT IS THAT - BECAUSE HAVE YOU EVER SEEN A CHEETO TURN THAT COLOR? I THOUGHT IT WAS PRETTY COOL...

KARL: NO, JOHN, I'VE NEVER SEEN A CHEETO THAT COLOR, YOU KNOW, AND IT KIND OF LOOKS LIKE ELVIS!!!

TIM KIRKISTHEBESTCAPTAIN: OR RICHARD FENYMAN!!!

(AWKWARD SILENCE)

KRUK: UM, AT NUMBER THREE THIS WEEK IS THIS PICTURE I TOOK OF A THREE LEGGED FROG - CAN WE GET THIS UP? OK, I WAS OUT HUNTING WILD TURKEY ON MY FARM, AND I WAS OVER BY THE POND AND I SAW THIS FROG... I TOOK THE PICTURE WITH MY CELL PHONE, SO IT'S KIND OF BAD, BUT YOU CAN MAKE OUT THE THREE LEGS RIGHT THERE - SEE? ONE, TWO, THREE...

KARL: WOW, A, UH, THREE LEGGED FROG

KRUK: YEAH. COOL, HUH. AT NUMBER TWO THIS FUKODOME T-SHIRT THAT REALLY CRACKED ME UP... IT'S GOT THIS HARRY CARY LOOKING BEAR CUB AND IT SAYS "HORRY COWL"!!! GET IT???!!! "HORRY COWL"???!!!

(EVEN MORE AWKWARD SILENCE)
UMM... AND AT NUMBER ONE IS THIS PICTURE OF MY NIECE HAILEY.. ISN'T SHE CUTE? SHE'S GOT THAT PINK TU-TU ON AND A MAGIC WAND AND A TIERRA?? ISN'T SHE CUTE???

KARL: LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, THIS WEEKS KRUK-GEMS...
   11. In what respect, Craig K? Posted: April 29, 2008 at 12:29 PM (#2762403)
Forget the specific names of players and all

I would consider that to be 99% of the decision-making process, though.


Basically, just assume you've got your choice of MVP/Cy Young candidates at age 27-28 or so at each position you could fill.
   12. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: April 29, 2008 at 12:29 PM (#2762404)
I'd probably follow JJ1986's lead, although I'd probably take a 2B instead of a catcher. This is also my fantasy draft strategy, and I'm currently in last place.
   13. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: April 29, 2008 at 12:48 PM (#2762438)
If there is an even distribution of talent at each position, then I would take the best five pitchers available. It is much easier and to trade pitching to fix hitting than it is to trade hitting to fix pitching.

If the distribution of talent is not even at every position, then I would take players at the five positions that have the greatest scarcity of talent. Again, because you will get more in return for them. And, if there are, for example, two MVP level catchers and all the rest are lousy, then I take both catchers and turn one of them into a first baseman or outfielder until another team comes to me looking for a catcher.

I am also in last place in my fantasy league. This is due largely to Robinson Cano.
   14. Petunia Posted: April 29, 2008 at 01:36 PM (#2762516)
I think I'd forego the catcher, because getting replacement-level offense from behind the plate still puts me on par with about half the teams in the majors. I'd go centerfield (assuming we can create these superstars' abilities from scratch) first, get a stud offensively and defensively. An elite centerfielder makes up for a lot of defensive deficiencies in the corner spots, allowing me to mix & match focusing on getting an advantage at the plate in those positions (you know, get a guy like Cust, and not have to worry about his glove). I'd get a similar guy at shortstop. I'd get 2 brilliant pitchers, the kind of guy that goes out and wins a game for you, gives the bullpen a break, etc. And then I think I'd go the way JJ suggested and get the best bat out there for my last spot. I mean I guess since we're fantasizing I'd make him a second baseman who's also good defensively.

So we're talking a Sizemore or a Granderson that can hit lefties and doesn't strike out in CF. A SS with a Hanley bat and a, I don't know, late-90's era Vizquel glove. I'll take 1999 Pedro and 2000 Pedro heading up the rotation, and Chase Utley at second. That squad surrounded with waiver pickups could probably compete in a few divisions this year.

ETA: Strangely, I'm also getting killed in my fantasy leagues. In my AL-only keeper league that's been running for going on 7 years now, I've never finished worse than 4th and have been in the top 2 the last 4 years, I'm in next-to last place and dropping fast.
   15. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: April 29, 2008 at 01:46 PM (#2762541)
Then give me up-the-middle guys strong on defense and hitting. That's where the game is played. Then a pitcher.
   16. Mike Emeigh Posted: April 29, 2008 at 01:57 PM (#2762564)
It is much easier to trade pitching to fix hitting than it is to trade hitting to fix pitching.


No, it's not. You get the occasional Giles-for-Rincon or Bagwell-for-Andersen trade, true, but those trades stand out precisely because they're rare. Major league teams rarely trade hitting for pitching.

I'd want one staff ace and four Pujols-quality hitters at the corners.

-- MWE
   17. Jim Furtado Posted: April 29, 2008 at 02:08 PM (#2762586)
Discussion question of the day:

You can have any five players in the professional leagues to start your team with. The rest of your will have to be made of replacement level players. Your goal is to win now and money is no object to whichever five you get.

Forget the specific names of players and all; what positions are the five stars? Do you get five ace starters? Do you get four ace starters and a shutdown closer? Do you get five top hitters? What do you do?

Discussion question of the day: You can have any five players in the professional leagues to start your team with. The rest of your will have to be made of replacement level players. Your goal is to win now and money is no object to whichever five you get. Forget the specific names of players and all; what positions are the five stars? Do you get five ace starters? Do you get four ace starters and a shutdown closer? Do you get five top hitters? What do you do?
OR

Or, you can answer a similar question:
You can have any five teeth in your mouth. Your goal is to chew a steak without using a fork or knife. Which five teeth do you choose?
   18. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: April 29, 2008 at 02:29 PM (#2762624)
Which five teeth do you choose?
Do I get replacement level teeth to fill out the rest my mouth? Are dentures replacement level teeth? Or is Chris Stewart (newly of the Yankees) the denures of catching?

I probably shouldn't have had that beer at lunch.
   19. Cowboy Popup Posted: April 29, 2008 at 02:36 PM (#2762636)
Three aces and two big bats. That should keep me in ~60% of my games and give me the potential to win them.

I might consider good all around players (plus bats and gloves) up the middle (SS, 2b, CF, C) and one ace and hope that the good defense makes the shitty pitchers useful.
   20. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: April 29, 2008 at 03:11 PM (#2762731)
No, it's not. You get the occasional Giles-for-Rincon or Bagwell-for-Andersen trade, true, but those trades stand out precisely because they're rare. Major league teams rarely trade hitting for pitching.

The Major Leagues rarely find the game's five best pitchers all on one team. If I have Santana, Peavy, Webb, Beckett and Sheets all on my team, I bet a team or two would come up with a bat or two to grab one of them. Probably the Mets, Padres, Diamondbacks, Red Sox or Brewers, at least.
   21. Craig in MN Posted: April 29, 2008 at 03:33 PM (#2762764)
It doesn't make any sense to me to have only one or 2 great position players. Opponents will be pitching around them constantly, or using loogys, etc, to minimize their effectiveness. If you are getting any hitters, you need at least 3.

Personally, I think you need to have at least some strong pitching to have a chance at all. Two ace starters would be the absolute minimum. So I guess the only choice for me is 5 great starters or 2 great starters and 3 great position players (probably up the middle).

I have a feeling I would go with 5 great starters. Right now, the other teams are so built around matchups with loogys and trying to minimize the value of certain offensive players in certain situations. My opponent might have 2 loogys on their team to face teams with good lefty hitters, or 7 or 8 relievers to allow for a lot of specialized relievers, or a closer that is used rarely. My gut feeling is that if I have no good hitters and my opponent builds their roster to deal with good hitters, the utility of their roster construction is lessened somewhat, to my advantage. Maybe it would even out in the end, but I'd give it a shot. Then I'd do my best to set up 4 replacement-level platoons on offense and get good defense from the rest of my replacement players.

Is this an NL or AL team? Would it matter?
   22. Lou Potent Potables (Dan Lee) Posted: April 29, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2762765)
THANKS, TOLAXOR. THIS PLACE WOULDN'T BE THE SAME WITHOUT YOU.
   23. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: April 29, 2008 at 03:51 PM (#2762800)
Forget the specific names of players and all; what positions are the five stars? Do you get five ace starters? Do you get four ace starters and a shutdown closer? Do you get five top hitters? What do you do?


If we're forgetting specific names of players, then can I have 5 Johanesque starters?
   24. Bob "Jugement" Dernier Posted: April 29, 2008 at 04:01 PM (#2762811)
I guess one factor would be, are there X number of other "players" getting five fantasy picks, or is it just me as a new "expansion team" in the current majors? (Sounds like the latter, actually.)

Bill James once characterized the 1980 Phillies as being almost that kind of club. Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, Tug McGraw ... actually they didn't have any big stars beyond that, and though you wouldn't call the rest of the club entirely replacement-level either, a lot of them weren't far above. Is that the closest any successful team has come to the 5-stars and a bunch of clones model? Or maybe the 1987 Twins (Puckett, Hrbek, Viola; and then imagine if they could have traded Tom Brunansky and Bert Blyleven for Wade Boggs and Roger Clemens).
   25. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: April 29, 2008 at 04:12 PM (#2762824)
Is that the closest any successful team has come to the 5-stars and a bunch of clones model?


They didn't win the WS but the 2004 Cardinals come close, don't they? Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen and Carpenter...but not a heck of a lot else. You could count Renteria, I guess, but he had an OPS+ of 88 that year.
   26. Joe C isn't Posted: April 29, 2008 at 04:47 PM (#2762885)
THANKS, TOLAXOR. THIS PLACE WOULDN'T BE THE SAME WITHOUT YOU.

AMEN TO THAT. Really enjoyed it.
   27. Nasty Nate Posted: April 30, 2008 at 12:07 AM (#2763836)
so, uh, serviceable debut from Sherzer tonight, huh? jeez
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