First time I've seen James Darnell that high up. Thoughts on him?

Darnell's a hitter. Adam's Web site compares his swing to that of the Upton brothers. I haven't seen him play at all so I really don't have anything to add, but you might want to check out the detail scouting report. He's been old for his levels, which I expect keeps the other services from rating him this high.

-- MWE

Haven't seen Josh Bell that high either?

Darnell's a hitter. Adam's Web site compares his swing to that of the Upton brothers. I haven't seen him play at all so I really don't have anything to add, but you might want to check out the detail scouting report. He's been old for his levels, which I expect keeps the other services from rating him this high.

Thanks. A Reggie Cleveland All-Star, no?

No Aaron Hicks

Mike Leake at #20?

Why is Smoak being rated so high on these lists? Was he carrying an injury last season?

Smoak had an oblique injury right after he moved up to AAA last year.

A little late in the off-season, but finally a way the Mets can improve their rotation: Trade F-Mart for Neftali Feliz!

I've asked before but how can Ackley be ranked so high without a pro AB?

Interesting to see Michael Taylor so much higher than Domonic Brown. Most rankings of the Phillies system prior to the Halladay trade had Brown higher than Taylor.

I've asked before but how can Ackley be ranked so high without a pro AB?

I've read -- can't remember where -- that the level of competition in the ACC and Pac-10 equals or surpasses that of high-A minors. Ackley was huge at North Carolina, and has positional flexibility -- CF, seen as a possibility at 2B -- decent speed, a refined approach and a swing that's seen as likely to be effective with wood bats.

Also, there's a bit of a Zdurencincantspellit honeymoon effect, I suspect.

A Reggie Cleveland All-Star, no?

I nominate Mets prospect Ike Davis.

I've asked before but how can Ackley be ranked so high without a pro AB?

Same reason Strasburg can be ranked so high, right? Amateur stats and scouting reports are less reliable than minor-league data, but they still have plenty of predictive value for future performance.

I nominate Mets prospect Ike Davis.

Back when he was a prospect, I thought Nate McLouth was black for at least a year.

I've read -- can't remember where -- that the level of competition in the ACC and Pac-10 equals or surpasses that of high-A minors.

that is not really at all true. MWE would probably know better than me, but if the level of competition in the ACC was at that level, then the players who excel there would be held in much higher esteem on draft, and would also be promoted much more aggressively afterwards. i could maybe, maybe buy that the talent level of the upperclassmen was at advanced A territory, but i can't imagine the underclassmen are near that level, and even the juniors and seniors would figure to be less developed than their same age A+ counterparts due to at least nominally having to attend class instead of being able to focus solely on baseball.

Well, I was just pulling something that I thought I had read out of my rear end, so it should be taken with a big rock of salt. But there are plenty of guys who do excel at high-A and never go anywhere after that.

On reflection, however, it does seem to me that the 18- and 19-year-old guys on NCAA teams, even in those big conferences, are unlikely to stack up to the 21-year-old guys in the pros. If I weren't so lazy and about to go to bed so I can get up in time to watch the Australian Open, I'd try to dig up the article I thought I was referencing.

I nominate Mets prospect Ike Davis.

And at the other end, Donovan Tate and Tim Beckham.

I nominate Mets prospect Ike Davis.

Ike Davis isn't black?

Ackley did play in the Arizona Fall League, so it's not quite true that he hasn't had a pro AB. He played 1B for UNC largely because they had a shortage of corner infielders and a surplus of up-the-middle players; he is quite capable of handling center field.

Adam is on Twitter a lot, and he'll explain his reasoning for just about any player that you ask him about. I don't always agree with him (definitely not on Strasburg), but you come away at least understanding why he thinks the way he does.

-- MWE

I thought Ackley played first at UNC due to elbow surgery? I know the recovery of his armstrength has been a point of discussion.

Same reason Strasburg can be ranked so high, right?

Not really. I think it's much easier to project a college pitcher than hitter. Strasburg objectively throws 100 mph and subjectively has good breaking pitches. Ackley objectively hit very well against college pitching with a metal bat. Not the same.

Mike Leake at #20?

Foster on Leake:

Leake is going to get knocked down by a ton of traditional scouting biases. If you look past those, you'll realize that he's one of the safest bets in the minors to surface as an average or better MLB starter. I'll say it again, but I think there's more than a 25% chance that Leake will have a better career than Stephen Strasburg -- could last a lot longer.

...

I would have strongly considered Leake with the 3rd overall pick. He's a good ground-ball pitcher who can locate five pitches for strikes. Leake picked apart Dom Brown when they matched up at the AFL. I felt bad for Brown...it wasn't fair.

It would be one thing if Leake wasn't just as good as Strasburg in college. And if he didn't have some promising starts at the AFL. But he was and he did. SOOO underrated.

I like him a lot more than Crow. Matzek and Turner may have higher ceilings.

Ike Davis isn't black?

His first name is actually Isaac.

Nate McClouth isn't black?

Isaac Hayes isn't black?

Nothing will ever top when I found out that Khalil Greene looked like the lost Wilson brother.

Thank you very much for the link Mike.

Haven't seen Josh Bell that high either?

A lot of people have trouble accepting late-bloomer prospects. This is why Carlos Santana isn't a consensus top 10 prospect. People who don't know him well, wonder how he rose so quickly. Similarly with Bell, people may want to knock him down because he was traded for a reliever and wasn't a big name prospect up until 2009. That's fine. But I think he's a good bet to be a solid defensive third baseman who walks a good amount and puts up above-average power numbers. He could easily surface as an above-average big leaguer.

I've asked before but how can Ackley be ranked so high without a pro AB?

Also, there's a bit of a Zdurencincantspellit honeymoon effect, I suspect.

I've seen Ackley play about 10 times over the last three years. As mentioned previously, he was a first baseman in college because he spent more of his career at UNC with a damaged UCL. Now that his arm is close to 100% again, I think he could be a decent center fielder or a good defensive left fielder. He isn't the type of hitter who's going to go yard at least once a week, but he's going to work himself into great hitter's counts and spray line-drives all over the field. Why wait for a guy to record a regular-season plate appearance when you've already scouted him extensively and are very confident in him?

Honeymoon effect with Ackley and the Mariners' front office...? This had nothing to do with our decision of where to rank him. Zero.

Interesting to see Michael Taylor so much higher than Domonic Brown. Most rankings of the Phillies system prior to the Halladay trade had Brown higher than Taylor.

The high-ceiling obsession with Dom Brown is going to look pretty silly in a few years. Clearly the people who bark up his sexy athleticism haven't seen him play much. Brown is one of the most awkward hitters I saw in 2009. Yes, he is an impressive quick-twitch athlete, but his swing mechanics are going to limit his ability to drive the ball and make regular contact. He's still at least a year away from being big-league ready and I doubt he'll ever become an above-average big leaguer -- his defense has also been vastly overrated. He is a decent bet to surface as an average regular, though. That's why he's on this list.

I don't think we've seen the best of Michael Taylor yet. While I don't anticipate him being a valuable defender, I think his bat will continue to improve. And I see him as a pretty good bet to be an average MLB hitter or better.

Adam is on Twitter a lot, and he'll explain his reasoning for just about any player that you ask him about. I don't always agree with him (definitely not on Strasburg), but you come away at least understanding why he thinks the way he does.

-- MWE

@adamwfoster and I'm always happy to answer questions and exchange ideas with prospect fans. Everyone has something to learn from everyone :).

I am a little surprised to see Fernando that high, mostly because of his injury history.

I've said is elsewhere, but I challenge anyone to find a medical professional who's willing to write Martinez up as a major injury risk from now on out. To my knowledge, his injuries haven't been related. And aside from the lingering hamstring injury, they've all been fairly common ailments. I don't believe the hamstring was a problem last year, either.

If a guy just needs to stay on the field to be a successful big leaguer, I'd gladly roll the dice on him. I think Martinez's "injury history" has been blown way out of proportion. Everyone's a doctor in analyzing him. And a ton of people could end up looking bad for acknowledging his talent then writing him off because they think they're doctors. Hehe, sorry...that's my Fernando Martinez rant :).

Hey Adam, while you're here, let me ask you: What's Jesus Montero going to be? Could we have a Miguel Cabrera type hitter on our hands?

Honeymoon effect with Ackley and the Mariners' front office...? This had nothing to do with our decision of where to rank him. Zero.

This comment had less to do with his ranking on any specific list than the seeming consensus that has emerged about him over the last month, which has him a lot higher than almost anybody expected, based on his college career.

Why wait for a guy to record a regular-season plate appearance when you've already scouted him extensively and are very confident in him?

Because he'll be underpowered for his position, even with the most optimistic evaluations as a hitter, unless the very optimistic CF/2B talk works out. Maybe he'll be Keith hernandez but personally I'd like to see him play in the Minors first.
Thanks for stopping by and giving us your detailed viewpoint Adam.

I've read -- can't remember where -- that the level of competition in the ACC and Pac-10 equals or surpasses that of high-A minors.

Absolutely not true. Many successful players in those leagues are unable to continue anything resembling their collegiate success even in short-season ball, and the gaudy numbers put up by the elite college hitters rarely ever carry over to professional side, regardless of what level they start at (i.e. I'd put the odds at less than 1% that Ackley replicates his .417/.517/.763 2009 ACC line in a typical A+ ballpark, due to the much higher level of pitching; and if he did, he would easily be the top prospect in baseball after that staggering line).

I would wager that maybe one or two elite college teams each year could hold their own in one of the A-ball leagues, but that's about as far as I'd be willing to grant.

Nothing will ever top when I found out that Khalil Greene looked like the lost Wilson brother.

KG looks like Jeff Spicoli.

due to the much higher level of pitching

Not to mention wood bats.

OTOH, Joe Koshansky hit .302/.388/.604 his senior year at UVA and .291/.373/.603 the next year in the Sally League. Guys like Mark Teixeira, Ryan Zimmerman, and Matt Weiters went pretty much straight from the ACC to tearing up AA, and it's not like they were OPSing .1300 in college. So I could see how someone might look at a handful of top hitters and jump to a conclusion about the overall level of play.

Hey Adam, while you're here, let me ask you: What's Jesus Montero going to be? Could we have a Miguel Cabrera type hitter on our hands?

He could make that kind of hitting impact. I love his easy power combined with elite contact skills. He's a very good bet to become an above-average MLB hitter.

This comment had less to do with [Ackley's] ranking on any specific list than the seeming consensus that has emerged about him over the last month, which has him a lot higher than almost anybody expected, based on his college career.

A lot of prospect people got out to see Ackley multiple times at the AFL, too. While he struck out more than I expected (22.1%) he led the league in line-drive percentage (2009 AFL Batting Leaders) and walked a lot (14.0%). That's not a bad way to kick off your pro career.

since you're reading this, i might as well share my thoughts. basically, you're wrong on both fernando martinez and domonic brown. martinez isn't a CFer. he's never gonna hit 25 HRs, and his plate discipline is below average. the only way his package will work in a corner is if he hits a consistent .340. otherwise he's randy winn, with less speed. in other words, nowhere near a top 10 commodity.


as for domonic brown, the reason he gets attention is simple. he's a toolshed. a massive, awesome toolshed. plus he has great plate discipline. his package, at least right now, is average hit and power tools with the potential to be much more, very good plate discipline, with great speed, range, and arm strength.


actually, i don't so much disagree with your ranking of domonic brown, so much as i disagree with the ballyhoo around it.

The high-ceiling obsession with Dom Brown is going to look pretty silly in a few years. Clearly the people who bark up his sexy athleticism haven't seen him play much. Brown is one of the most awkward hitters I saw in 2009. Yes, he is an impressive quick-twitch athlete, but his swing mechanics are going to limit his ability to drive the ball and make regular contact. He's still at least a year away from being big-league ready and I doubt he'll ever become an above-average big leaguer -- his defense has also been vastly overrated. He is a decent bet to surface as an average regular, though. That's why he's on this list.

yeah, that right there.

Absolutely not true.

Please keep reading before you decide to bust my balls.

Adam -- what's Zach Britton's ceiling? Will his GB tendencies carry over to MLB?

What about Brandon Snyder's ceiling and floor? What are the chances that he can hit enough to be a ML first baseman?

The main concern I have about Montero is the extent to which catching will take a physical toll. He's a big guy, and big guys who catch put a lot of strain on their back and knees.

-- MWE

I don't think we're going to see Montero catching too much longer.

I don't think we're going to see Montero catching too much longer.

We'll see what the Yankees do. Unlike many teams, the Yankees do have another option (Romine) and who knows what will happen if/when Mauer becomes a free agent.

-- MWE

Adam, what are your thoughts on Chisenhall and Tyler Flowers?

Please keep reading before you decide to bust my balls.

I was not intending harm towards you nethers, just to be forceful in my disagreement with the premise.

You are kidding me. Randy Winn? Fernando was leading the IL in OPS as the youngest player in the league before being called up. Yes, he hasn't put it all together yet, but he's going to be a stud.

You are kidding me. Randy Winn? Fernando was leading the IL in OPS as the youngest player in the league before being called up. Yes, he hasn't put it all together yet, but he's going to be a stud.

and he did it with a just barely above league average OBP. he physically doesn't have the power potential to maintain that production over 162 games at the major league level. i'll give you that it was a very nice 45 games, but that's all it is.

Domonic Brown finished in the top five in OPS in the Florida State League. I think the most positive assessments comes from the fact that he's fairly unrefined and even at this stage he's still a good player.

he physically doesn't have the power potential to maintain that production over 162 games at the major league level.

Right now? Of course not. He's 21. How many players his age have had an ISO of .250 at this age?

I will grant you that Fernando's minor league production doesn't seem spectacular until you consider his age. Players who reach the majors in their early 20s and who have shown the flashes Fernando has usually get a lot better when they reach the majors. Look at Miguel Cabrera for example. Cabrera's 286/.350/.431 isn't too different from Fernando's .281/.337.445 minor league line

Heck, before he went nuts, Cabrera hit 274/.333/.421 in AA which is pretty mediocre until you consider he was one of the youngest players in the league. Moreover, the power component was there. Sure his SLG wasn't that high, but you knew he was going to be a power hitter that early on because of the amount of XBHs (40% of hits) he had compiled. In the majors he filled up, and now all those doubles became HRs. Likewise, Fernando, who had 50% of his hits go for extra bases at AAA, is going to fill up, and he's going to start hitting some more bombs.

Adam, what are your thoughts on Chisenhall and Tyler Flowers?

Chisenhall's a pretty well-rounded hitter. He is going to make a fair amount of outs because of his high fly-ball totals, though.

It's hard to ignore Flowers' potential -- if he can stick at C and hit for a lot of power -- but I think his swing isn't going to allow him to adapt to the big leagues too easily. His bat speed isn't too impressive, his swing is a little long and his timing can be off more often than you'd like to see with a MLB bat.

just to be forceful in my disagreement with the premise.

If you had kept reading -- which you still seem not to have done -- you'll find that I retracted it fully upon further consideration.

he physically doesn't have the power potential to maintain that production over 162 games at the major league level.

Right now? Of course not. He's 21. How many players his age have had an ISO of .250 at this age?

I will grant you that Fernando's minor league production doesn't seem spectacular until you consider his age. Players who reach the majors in their early 20s and who have shown the flashes Fernando has usually get a lot better when they reach the majors. Look at Miguel Cabrera for example. Cabrera's 286/.350/.431 isn't too different from Fernando's .281/.337.445 minor league line

Heck, before he went nuts, Cabrera hit 274/.333/.421 in AA which is pretty mediocre until you consider he was one of the youngest players in the league. Moreover, the power component was there. Sure his SLG wasn't that high, but you knew he was going to be a power hitter that early on because of the amount of XBHs (40% of hits) he had compiled. In the majors he filled up, and now all those doubles became HRs. Likewise, Fernando, who had 50% of his hits go for extra bases at AAA, is going to fill up, and he's going to start hitting some more bombs.

i like your process of thinking, but in this case, i'm pretty sure you're wrong. miguel cabrera is 6'4", not 6'0", like martinez. physically, there's a massive difference in the power that can be generated from each of their frames, and to color them both with the same age relative to league argument completely ignores the fact that miguel cabrera was still growing into his 6'4" frame, while martinez, at 6'0", 195 lbs is already physically maxed out.


you're looking at a 45 game sample size, and saying that his improvement there trumps the entirety of his prior record. i see where you're coming from, but you're reading too much into that one sample.