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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, December 01, 2008Projecting C.C. Sabathia: The $140 Million Question
Hotel Coral Esix Snead (tmutchell)
Posted: December 01, 2008 at 11:48 PM | 9 comment(s)
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This is the same C.C. Sabathia with the 7.92 postseason ERA, right? I don't attach too much significance to that but to act like it didn't happen is kind of silly.
Another A-Rod rip?
It seems that suggestions he may well have been worn down by the time the playoffs rolled around in 07 and 08 have been scoffed at here, but to me that's still the most likely explanation. He had 4 straight years of pitching just under 200 innings from 03-06, and then threw 241 regular season innings in 07 and 253 this year. It's very possible he was worn down by the time the playoffs arrived and that may explain his poor results in those series.
CC had a 2.11 ERA in 43 innings in Sept-Ober 2008, and was 4-0, 2.37 in that time frame last year. So he held up during the stretch.
CC's experience in the playoffs constitutes a very small sample size, only 25 innings to date. Having "worn down" was a convenient excuse for his poor performances, and not one he ever made for himself. Writers are always looking for easy, convenient answers, whether there's any evidence for them or not.
He had one playoff outing this year, and was not good in it. Last year he beat the Yankees in the ALDS, then lost two in the ALCS against Boston, who averaged 5.35 runs/game in the regular season and would eventually win the WS. His second start was 6 IP, 4 ER, which isn't awful against a team like that. Before that you're going back to the 2001 ALDS, where he beat the 116-win Mariners with 6 IP, 2 ER, not bad for a 20-year old rookie, but ancient history by now.
I'll admit that I should not have written what I did about the playoffs, but I maintain that the evidence against him is hardly conclusive. Tom Glavine's playoff record in his first three opportunities was 1-5, 5.71 in 35 IP, and he went on to win 13 more games with a 2.99 ERA in the playoffs. Greg Maddux started out 2-2, 6.62 in 34 innings, then compiled a 2.58 ERA in his other 164 playoff innings. CC's 25 playoff innings should not (ahem...) carry more weight than his 1600+ regular season innings, especially the last 500 or so, which were nothing short of excellent.
Again, obviously that's small sample size, but the man himself has said (again, he wasn't making excuses, just matter-of-fact) that there might be something going on up there.
AHA! You're Joe Gambler, aren't you?
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