You're using few enough pitchers that I'd imagine you need to park- and league-adjust more than just their Major League ERA. At a glance, your contribution to the previous study (BAC) appears to only really differ due to the HR rates. Given how widely minor league defenses vary, I'd rather look strictly at the HR/9 stat and ignore the BABIP portion of it.

Incidentally, I see a few "finesse" pitchers in the first list, and at least half of the second group are considered to have good stuff, so I don't think your explanation of the results holds up.

Since I forgot to mention it, the explanation that leaps to mind for me for the general trend would be that the latter group was promoted less aggressively than the former.

Since I forgot to mention it, the explanation that leaps to mind for me for the general trend would be that the latter group was promoted less aggressively than the former.

Good point. I wonder how much time the lessor group spent in A or A-. There seem to be a zillion pitchers who could put up a 4-1 K-W in A but can't even get to 2-1 in AA. You'd have to control for level.

The problem with BA on contact is that its heavily dependent on your defense, and at the major league level, luck. Given enough of a sample you can estimate a pitcher's true ability, but for minor leaguers you've got nowhere near the sample you need before the talented pitchers get called up.

I agree with Sparkles/2 this analysis is incomplete without looking at the age of the pitchers putting up the minor league stats and the level of competition they were facing (A-/A+/AA/AAA).

Hey guys, who's better, joba chamberlain or ian kennedy? inquiring minds (read: potential fantasy owners) need to know.

Everyone can tell you that Joba Chamberlain is the better prospect, but I happen to think Ian Kennedy is going to be a very good big league pitcher. His stuff is better than he's given credit for, his command is great, and he's smart.

Thanks for the comments guys. I'm taking a closer look at pitcher's ages. I remember in Perry's earlier articles he noted that the elite major league pitchers had a slightly younger age at each of the levels. Regarding BAC at the major league level, the elite major league pitchers do continue to hold their edge in BAC at the major league levels. The elite major leaguers had an average major league BAC of .309 while the other group had an average of .323. It's closer than the gap was in the minor leagues but the gap is still their.