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At the same time, I suppose it is the mark of good team construction that they can give away said outfield and still be a playoff team in two out of those three years.
Hold on there now. Calling Jay Payton "pretty decent" is lowering the bar to Dead Sea levels, Crisp has been intermittently decent at best @ the plate excepting one year in Cleveland (tho his defensive value mitigates that somwehat), and Wily Mo, bless his moonshots, obviously has a lot of holes in his game. If you're starting that OF, you'd better hope your infield performs like the Yankees' crew, or you'll have to start drinking the same Kool-Aid Boche's serving up in SF.
Crisp is good if he can continue to play defense at his 2007 level, or hit like 2004-05. Pena will finally get his chance this year. If Payton is anything more than a 4th outfielder though, then the Orioles are contenders.
Never mind that - I can't see the Red Sox wanting to pay that for Blanton, given Lester's ceiling, and the fact that this coming season will be his first in 2 (3?) years that (knock on wood) doesn't involve rehab of any sort. They might already have Blanton, in a sense. Or they might have Kevin Morton. Either way, I'd like to see what he's capable of.
I know in years past there was talk of the Red Sox' desire to dump Coco Crisp's contract, but given his outstanding defense, he's a bargain for the next two years. A pretty good bargain, actually. Trading him and Lester for Joe Blanton just makes no sense.
Honestly, I think the best idea is to just keep Crisp and plant Ellsbury on the bench or in AAA for awhile if I have to, and see how things shake out. Giving Manny the occasional day off and sending out the hellacious defensive outfield of Ellsbury-Crisp-Drew isn't a terrible idea, especially if you time it with starts from Wakefield or Tavarez or such. I think you can make Crisp the nominal regular and still find enough PAs for Ellsbury, and have insurance against in injury.
Regarding Blanton being no Johan Santana, that's obviously true, but not particularly relevant. A Blanton suitor is one that needs lots of above average innings cost controlled for three years, preferably to cement their status as a playoff contender. If the Red Sox prefer more upside with a little risk or aren't that concerned about cost, then they're not the best Blanton suitor.
-- MWE
i don't see the red sox trading for blanton.
I guess what I'm saying is IF you think Crisp still has some legitimate upside, then why would you be scared off by the fact that he'll be in his early thirties when you're ready to compete? I'm not aware of many WS winners composed entirely of 27 year olds.
Again I'm not saying this to suggest that the Sox should get a lot for Crisp. Especially since Oakland would still have to extend him by 2010. But I don't see why they wouldn't necessarily be interested in him.
Maybe I'm the biggest Blanton fanboy in the 'net, but I just don't get this. For a guy with "middling" peripherals, he sure had an awesome FIP last year (3.59, 6th in the AL). If his HR rates bother you, his xFIP was 16th in the AL. He pitched the second most innings in the league last year. He's basically improved his FIP and walk rates every year since he broke into the bigs. He's tossed a huge number of innings and hasn't been hurt (yet). He's fat and cuddly. What's not to like?
I'm not saying that I would or would not trade Blanton+contract for Lester+contract. But on a performance basis, Blanton has been one of the top 30 pitchers in the bigs, and yet nobody seems to view him as such (including the A's, who didn't lock him up through arb).
I can't speak for the wicked smaht people, not being one myself, but personally I think the odds of it are pretty slim.
Not wicked smaht, or even regulah smaht, but I think Crisp can hit better than he has in Boston but not as well as he did in Cleveland. I don't think it's a guarantee, as Kevin seems to, that Ellsbury will be better than him this year.
I would agree with this part, but that's more due to my opinion of Ellsbury than any real optimism about Crisp.
I'd love for him to have a hitting resurgence - even if it's with another team - because I like the guy. Were he to hit, he'd be a lot of fun to watch, much like I already feel about Ellsbury. But I'm not optimistic.
Cupcakes' FIP, from THT, last 3 years, 2005-2007: 4.40, 4.21, 3.59. From Fangraphs, 4.61, 4.21, 3.46.
ERA: 3.53, 4.82, 3.95.
He has progressively cut his BB rates, 3 BBs per 9 in 2005, 2.69 in 2006, 1.57 in 2007; while maintaining or improving his K rates, 5.19 Ks / 9 in 2005, 4.96 in 2006, 5.48 in 2007.
K / BB rates, 1.73, 1.84, 3.5.
While he is not a worm killer, he is somewhat of a groundballer, 46.9% in 2007, career 45.0.
He also has no history of any health problems, averaging around 209 IPs per season the last 3 years.
Also, it's not as if he is expensive, 3 years of service time.
Nothing is a guarantee - its not guaranteed that Albert Pujols will outhit Crisp. Its just very, very likely. Having said that, I personally believe that its highly likely that Ellsbury will outplay Crisp if both were given the chance - well over 50%. Maybe around 80% IMO.
Just a gut feeling, but I believe the chances that Crisp has an offensive resurgence is greater outside of Boston than it is if he stays here, putting aside playing time.
And I'm pretty much with SalB on Blanton. His BABIP has jumped around but his peripherals have steadily improved in his 3 big league seasons:
2005: 1.73 K:BB, 1.0 HR/9, 4.61 FIP
2006: 1.84 K:BB, 0.8 HR/9, 4.21 FIP (17th in AL)
2007: 3.50 K:BB, 0.6 HR/9, 3.46 FIP (6th in AL)
This is after Blanton put up a 143:34 K:BB in 176 AAA innings as a 23 year old in 2004.
Blanton and Haren have remarkably similar career stats:
Player FIP BABIP IP/GSBlanton 4.06 .300 6.4
Haren 4.05 .300 6.3
Neither pitcher has ever had health problems or missed a start.
A durable innings eater who's cost-controlled for 3 years and projected by every system to be varying degrees of above average should return prospects closer to the Haren package than the Santana package. Given the rumors of what the A's have been asking from the Reds (Bruce, or 2 of Cueto/Votto/Bailey) and the Dodgers (Laroche, Ethier, and another prospect), I can't see the A's entertaining a Crisp/Lester offer. I'd think a Red Sox offer would have to start with Lowrie and one of Kalish/Masterson.
where have you seen that the red sox are interested in trading for blanton?
I'm not too impressed with Lester. He hasn't shown much in AAA or MLB.
most of his AAA numbers were compiled while he was rehabbing from CANCER!
From TFA, which Repoz was kind enough to excerpt for us.
Sure, and the fact that he's had an odd career path certainly must be considered. But I'd like to see him regain his 2005 form before making him the centerpiece of a Blanton trade.
i think blanton's a good pitcher. i watched a bunch of a's games in 05 and i think he really looked good ... but, i think you're underrating crisp. watching him last year, i think his gold glove center field D is legit. he's nothing special with that bat, but i think he's better than he showed last year. i also think he's likely to lose less in a park like oakland than some other players ... when he's on, he sprays line drives and ground balls all over the field, so the big foul territory won't be an issue, and it's not like much of his value is tied up in hr's so that shouldn't be affected, either. if he starts hitting like he did in 2005 and kept playing gold glove defense, that's an all star level of play. that'd be a really good value.
Crisp is guaranteed at least $11 million over the next two years (with an $8M option on 2010)--years which the A's have basically given up on. They're looking for prospects, not guys who have used up all their pre-arb years.
Not watch much ball in October, Danny?
Of course if he regained 2005 form he is a better pitcher than Joe Blanton.
Exactly. If the A's need a stopgap in CF, sign Kenny Lofton. He'll likely be tradeable to a contender. Crisp is not significantly better than Lofton, as a stopgap, to be worth Blanton. Not as anything more than a throw in.
And Red Sox fans wonder why we call 'em the new Yankee fans.
Sure... but it'll apparently cost you Aramis Ramirez to move him.
Actually, did. I just don't think of 9 innings as "much," and I don't think those 9 IP were all that impressive.
I'd take Blanton's 2005 over Lester's. Out of curiosity, what do you expect out of Lester this year?
improve his control and add a couple mph to his fastball. we'll see how that plays out numbers-wise, but i figure 105-110 era+ isn't too much to ask.
Sure, just like you could argue Ellsbury is as good as Grady Sizemore.
As has been brought up before, though, the Phillies have very little to offer in terms of prospects, but it's not like the Red Sox have a lot of immediate needs--I would think they would settle for some high-upside Single-A arms given that they have no real urgent needs at the moment (for 2008, I mean).
I do wonder if the thought process here is to eventually move Crisp or Ellsbury to RF in 2009, with the other taking over CF and Drew moving to LF when the Red Sox decline Manny's option. I'm not saying the Red Sox are set on declining the option, mind you, but it is possible that their thinking is that if they can just juggle playing time this year among the 4 of them, they'd have quite a fly-catching OF for 2009 if/when Manny departs.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. You mean Ellsbury isn't going to be a superstar next year? But he's so much fun to watch!
are you suggesting that blanton is a superstar?
My post has nothing to do with Blanton and everything to do with Red Sox fans anointing an overrated player as the second coming.
They're quite comparable. Without looking up their stats, 340/400 with 20 SB is probably a nice, safe projection for both of them. Crisp is the better fielder. Offensively, Victorino is in a very similar position to where Crisp was when the Sox got him: decent enough, and relatively inexperienced, so you hold out hope that he has room to step up to the next level. If Crisp were ever going to take that great leap forward, he would have done it back then. Victorino still has the potential to do so, so that is an advantage for him on offense.
I don't see how replacing Victorino with Crisp really helps anything.
ok. thanks for your wonderful contribution. please come aroudn more often and help us more accurately evaluate red sox prospects, ok?
agree. what they really need is more of a right fielder that can platoon with jenkins a bit. victorino should be good in center.
Hard to see that happening, as Drew has a decent arm. Ellsbury is probably a bit below average in throwing, but Crisp in right field would be totally out of place. I don't know if they'll find a match now or in the middle of the season, but I doubt Crisp will be there at the start of 2009, whether they keep Manny or not.
I, for one, think Ellsbury is ready for the major leagues and damn fun to watch. I suppose the same could be said about Jesus, but I wasn't intending to make the comparison.
Crisp doesn't make a lot of sense to a team unlikely to contend in the next 2 years. So the Marlins and Nats are out. Phillies are out, as are the Mets, having Beltran.
Brewers signed Cameron. Cubs? Possibly if they have doubts about Pie. If he went to the Cubs he'd probably wind up back on the trade market within a year. Cards are in the same boat, won't want to block Rasmus for long.
Have the Padres filled their CF spot yet? The might be the best bet so far. Can't see any other west team interested.
Angels sure don't need another CF. Mariners are out thanks to Ichiro. White Sox could be in if they don't like Quentin and move Swisher to left. I don't see any other AL potential contender who needs a CF.
1. Padres
2. Cardinals
3. White Sox
4. Cubs
That's my guess. Just depends on what the price is.
they have edmonds. so ... no.
THIS is where Lofton should go (assuming he wants to play on a contender). Also, given his status as a bad-luck charm come October, Mets fans should be lobbying for this like they work for Big Tobacco.
Forgot about Edmonds. Well, I remembered him enough to know he wasn't a Cardinal, but not enough to remember him as traded to the Padres. Maybe I thought he got lost somewhere in Utah?
It's easy to see places where Crisp would have some value, but hard to see a team that would be motivated to giving up a lot of value for him. Especially when stopgaps like Lofton and Patterson are still unsigned.
Alternately, I'm sure from the A's perspective they don't mind this kind of rumor coming out.
I don't think the Red Sox are looking to trade Lester. I think they'd rather just dump Crisp for whatever they can get for him.
Which would be great, except that we're talking about Crisp.
Yippee, a new White Sox troll. Retro is going to have to make room.
I agree with this as well. I just don't think it necessarily translates into "superstar", particularly in 2008.
Oh, what? The Twins don't want THAT MUCH? Crisp would be TOO MUCH to ask? They're looking for somebody that will offer them a little bit LESS than Coco Crisp? Wow. Whoda thunk.
And, what? They what? With who? For what? Oh nevermind.
I'm not sure what made you think I am a troll, but I'm not. I'm generally a lurker. My apologies if I offended you, but my point was that Beane generally gets the better of KW when they make trades (thinking Billy Koch deal here). Also, someone threw out the phrase "cost certainty" WRT to Joe Blanton, and I think that is one of the things KW most covets (I think that is one of the reasons he acquired Swisher in the first place - cost certainty). Apologies if I don't have much faith in Floyd, Contreras and Danks...but am I really alone in that lack of faith?
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