Indians in 3. Don't see much of a way around it. Too many LHB in the Yankee lineup.

Yanks in 2.

CP,

More snow expected in Cleveland next week?

My dad asked me how I felt about the Yankees in this series. I said "cautiously optimistic." When I hung up, I realized that was exactly what I had said about the 2004 election.

Sigh ...

A-rod will hit 3 homers in games the Yankees will lose.

Jeter will get only one hit the entire series, which will win one game for the Yankees.

The NY press will rip A-rod for being choker and glorify Jeter for being clutch.

Seriously though...I really don't think the Yankees have much of a chance here. Of the AL playoff teams, Boston is the one I fear the least, but unfortunately, we won't get to face them this year. However, if the impossible does happen and we get out of the 1st round, I like our chances the rest of the way.

I think this series is tough to call, and I think it will go 5. If I had to put money down, I would put it on the Indians, but I see this as a 51/49 scenario.

Sabathia hasn't pitched against the Yankees in three years, and hasn't pitched particularly well when he did face them - he's beaten them only once in his career (as a rookie, in a rain-shortened game in which he allowed 4 runs in four innings).

Carmona, Westbrook and Byrd - the other three starters - have all faced the Yankees this year. Carmona had one good start, one so-so start. Westbrook and Byrd were each hammered one time, and Westbrook had another so-so outing.

If the Yankees split the first two in Cleveland, I think they'll win the series, and I think they're highly likely to win at least one of the first two in the Jake.

-- MWE

NY's got to hit. That's it. They've just got to hit. Abreu and Cano have got to get good ABs. They've got to take pitches. I'm cautiously optimistic in part b/c I can't imagine yet another postseason failure.

Once the wild card was clinched I was thinking "great season, what happens from here on out doesn't matter." Then as I was getting in my car to go to work I began to think about the fact that I would be leaving work to watch a playoff game and...dammit, I want to win.

More snow expected in Cleveland next week?

I expect Shelly Duncan to get hit in a game, go on a rampage and feast on half the Indians roster. Pronk will meet him on the field, and there will a magnificent battle in which most of downtown Cleveland is destroyed, reminiscent of the battles in Power Rangers where they just knocked over every building in the city they were saving. Neither will survive. The Indians, at less then half power, will forfeit the rest of the series.

NY's got to hit. That's it. They've just got to hit. Abreu and Cano have got to get good ABs. They've got to take pitches. I'm cautiously optimistic in part b/c I can't imagine yet another postseason failure.

I agree completely with the first point. Though my conclusion based on that is that I'm cautiously pessimistic about the Yankees' chances.

This year's playoff motto is apparently "We're Cautiously Optimistic"

I'm cautiously optimistic in part b/c I can't imagine yet another postseason failure.

Not being a Yankee fan, I guess I don't get it, but I wouldn't see this team losing to any of the three other AL teams as a "failure" unless it is a dramatic collpase or a major ass-kicking. The other three teams are all about as good as the Yankees and seemingly a little better-constructed for October baseball.

Just as an FYI- the Yankees are significant favorites in Vages for this series. I got the Indians at +170 which means that they only have to win 38% of the time for me to break even. For people who think that this series is a coinflip or that the Indians should be favored there is a good chance to make some money.

Not being a Yankee fan, I guess I don't get it, but I wouldn't see this team losing to any of the three other AL teams as a "failure" unless it is a dramatic collpase or a major ass-kicking. The other three teams are all about as good as the Yankees and seemingly a little better-constructed for October baseball.

Being a Yankee fan, watching the Angels play last night...I think if it was a Yankees-Angels ALCS and the Yankees lost...it would be a colossal failure. They have one excellent hitter and Lackey is the only pitcher on their staff that scares me as a Yankee fan. I would not have put money on the Yankees beating them in the ALDS though. To me, they're the clearly 4th place in an otherwise jumbled AL playoff picture.

rr: I hope this doesn't come off as arrogance, but it's just not the NYY expectation merely to make the playoffs. The expectation is to do well - make the playoffs, win in the playoffs, and fight like hell for the WS. Anything less than that is a failure, even if I console myself in much the manner implied by NJSAJIEFEFIJE; namely, by reminding myself how far the team came. But we're here, now. And yes, the other teams are excellent. But I want to win.

Not being a Yankee fan, I guess I don't get it, but I wouldn't see this team losing to any of the three other AL teams as a "failure"

I don't see it as a failure, but I like this team and would like to see them play as many games as possible, because I've learned as a Yankee fan that this team could be significantly different next year, and hell, I may not even like some of the same people next year (I go back and forth on Matsui like every four months).

Yeah, JC sums it up. I don't care if it makes me arrogant or whatever, but while I was extremely happy my team made the playoffs given their start this year, the euphoria from that has gone. Now, it is time to win. Anything less than a pennant, would be a failure. Not getting out of the ALDS would be a failure of catastrophic proportions. That said, I don't expect them to make it out of the first round.

Here's the Yankees record in playoff series since 1995:

LWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWLLWWLWLLL

Wow, that 11 in a row streak spoiled us.

I don't see it as a failure, but I like this team and would like to see them play as many games as possible, because I've learned as a Yankee fan that this team could be significantly different next year, and hell, I may not even like some of the same people next year (I go back and forth on Matsui like every four months).

See, I actually do like this team a lot, so I want them to win even more. I hate Farnsworth and I go back on forth on Matsui, but that's it. I love Jorge, Phil, Joba, Cano, Melky, A-Rod, Jeter, Wang and Moose.

well, by definition, not going all the way through the playoffs and winning the World Series is a "failure." As a team in the playoffs, that is your goal; not achieving that goal is failing. The question at hand as a fan is how to react to that failure, or expect to react if and when it happens.

Here's Cleveland's, since the dawn of time:

WWLWWLLWWLWLLL

Their two Series victories are reflected in the first two Ws.

rr: I hope this doesn't come off as arrogance

Not at all

But I want to win.

Sure. In spite of the long-term history, I can see hardcore Yankee fans being very hungry for a pennant, and for a post-season series win over the Angels or Red Sox particular. But I guess I just wouldn't see it as a failure if the Yankees lose to one of these teams due to my perception of the even quality of the teams. With the Padres, they choked a bit (Hoffman) and it was a disappointment, but after losing Cameron and Bradley, and with the Rockies taking it to them in PETCO to tighten the race, and with all Hoffman has done for the team, it was more like "a disappointment, but tip your hat" than a failure, since the Pads just weren't really better than the competition. The AL 4 are clearly better than the NL 4 (or 5) but also very even.

I consider the Reds' season a failure, though, as they pissed away big years from key guys.

Indians in 3. Don't see much of a way around it. Too many LHB in the Yankee lineup.

I'm thinking Indians in 4, but only because I think predicting playoff sweeps is kind-of daft. Like Fabian says, the Yankees are too left-handed. The realistic way* for them to win the series would be stealing one in Cleveland (probably tomorrow) then taking the first game in NY. If that happened, and Wedge panicked and started CC on short rest, the Yankees might take it in four games. But I don't see it happening.

*Obviously there are other ways to win the series but I'm omitting crazy scenarios like hitting game winning HRs off Borowski to ruin Sabathia's first start or whatever

I like this team and would like to see them play as many games as possible, because I've learned as a Yankee fan that this team could be significantly different next year, and hell, I may not even like some of the same people next year

the odd thing is, I like this team too, but I don't expect it to look all that different next year. This isn't 2001, which was clearly a last hurrah for O'Neill, Tino, Knoblauch, etc. Maybe its because Cashman is clearly running the show now, but I don't see this team being significantly changed even with the most catastrophic playoff failure. Joba, Phil, and Kennedy aren't going anywhere, Mo and Posada will almost certainly be resigned, and I've convinced myself that ARod will find his way back too.

Indians in 4.

*Obviously there are other ways to win the series but I'm omitting crazy scenarios like hitting game winning HRs off Borowski to ruin Sabathia's first start or whatever

That's a "crazy" scenario?

rr: I hope this doesn't come off as arrogance

Sure. In 1991, I was crushed when the Twins beat the Braves. Consider how unexpected the Braves being over 500 was. I thought I'd be satisfied with the division, but then I really wanted them to beat the Pirates. Ithought I'd be satisfied with the pennant, then I really wanted to beat the Twins. And, if you're playing in the series and you don't win, you failed by definition. I think some of the angst on this board is with the aversion to failure we have. People fail. If you truly push yourself to do great things, you're going to fail a fair amount. So, if I were a Yankee fan and they lost in the first round, I wouldn't be happy and I'd consider it a failure, but I'd also be happy with the way the team played and kept at it. It isn't either/or.

I think that the entire series is going to depend on whether or not Wang can keep the ball down. Wang didn't pitch in either of the two Indians series this year, but he's pitched fairly well against them in the past.

FWIW, the Yanks have played very well (39-22) at the Jake over the years. There's going to be a lot of pressure on the Indians, too, and I wouldn't quite give up yet.

That's a "crazy" scenario?

Sure. Lousy as he was in raw numbers, Borowski still converted (as almost anyone would) a healthy percentage of his saves. And that's not even getting into the low chance of the team being a situation where they can hit HRs of game-changing import off of ol' Joe.

The Yankees will win this series.

The Yankees have to be the favourites. Figure that the Indians are small favourites with Sabathia and Carmona, and the Yankees are big favourite against Byrd and Westbrook. That means that despite the fact that the Indians will be favoured in three out of five games I think the Yankees are favoured overall. My prediction is the Yankees in four. They split the first two and then blow Westbrook and Byrd out of the water. However, if it goes five then I think the Indians will win it.

I got the Indians at +170 which means that they only have to win 38% of the time for me to break even. For people who think that this series is a coinflip or that the Indians should be favored there is a good chance to make some money.

They are going to have to win 100% of the time if you want anyone to payoff your bet.

I have always been reluctant to make bets just because the odds were great on things I didn't think were going to happen. That said, I do think the Indians will win this series, so those odds look good to me.

Seriously though...I really don't think the Yankees have much of a chance here.

The Yankees have had the best record in baseball for (more than) the final two-thirds of the season.

In fact, they have it by far, going 73-39 in that period, whereas the next closest team (the Rockies) went 65-46. That's 65.2% versus 58.6%.

I'm not claiming they're a lock or anything like that, but I think it's silly to say that they don't have much of a chance.

Well this is mighty cool. Oh, not the article - I didn't read that. Not the thread either - haven't noticed it. But I feel like I'm really making the big time here when they have to specify which Jaffe wrote the article in question.

I'm not claiming they're a lock or anything like that, but I think it's silly to say that they don't have much of a chance.

Most of the Yankee fans on this board are hedging their bets, ignore their pessimism. Me, I refuse to learn, even after what I said about Kenny Rogers last year.

Yankees vs. LHP: .789 OPS
Yankees vs. RHP: .844 OPS

In other words, aganist righties, the Yankees hit like Robinson Cano. Aganist lefties? Doug Mientkiewicz.

In addition, defense and rebounding win championships and the Yankees don't have much of a front court.

Yankees vs. LHP: .789 OPS
Yankees vs. RHP: .844 OPS

In other words, aganist righties, the Yankees hit like Robinson Cano. Aganist lefties? Doug Mientkiewicz.

Ah, but check out Minky's stats since he came back off the DL---he's got a 1.129 OPS. He claims that a daily routine of "deep massages" (whatever that means) during his down time helped put him in the proper frame of mind.

Flax seed oil, Andy. Don't be daft.

He claims that a daily routine of "deep massages" (whatever that means) during his down time helped put him in the proper frame of mind.

I'd be in the proper frame of mind if I got a hand job from a female massage therapist everyday too.

If the Yankees biggest problem is that "clear disadvantage when it comes to late-inning matchups", we should be just fine. All the key late inning matchups will belong to Chamberlain or Rivera. The 6th inning might be a problem at times, although in a game 5, I suspect you'll see two innings of Chamberlain and two innings of Rivera, if necessary. Anybody writing an article like this who doesn't discuss the clear late inning advantage the Yankees have is showing his bias. Mariano vs. Borowski? Please.

Having said that, of course any 5 game series is a crapshoot and Cleveland's starting pitching will be a formidable obstacle for the Yankees to overcome. The betting line is hard for me to fathom.

Just as an FYI- the Yankees are significant favorites in Vegas for this series.

What else is new? The Yankees have been the leaders in dumb money for years now.

One of my biggest scores ever was Marlins-Yankees in '03.

Anybody writing an article like this who doesn't discuss the clear late inning advantage the Yankees have is showing his bias.

IIRC, Jay Jaffe is a Yankees fan.

What else is new? The Yankees have been the leaders in dumb money for years now.

One of my biggest scores ever was Marlins-Yankees in '03.

Hell, last year the DS saw the Yanks at something like 330.

IIRC, Jay Jaffe is a Yankees fan.

Well, then I guess I just don't understand his point at all. I know I'd be more than glad to have all the games tied going into the eight inning. Betancourt and Perez have been very, very good, and Cleveland can mix and match all they want but Borowski is probably the worst closer possessed by any team in the playoffs. If Joba handles the playoff pressure well, the Yankees have a late inning advantage. Period.

Most of the Yankee fans on this board are hedging their bets, ignore their pessimism.

Is this what we have been reduced to?

What are we, Red Sox fans? Cubs fans? Feh.

While the Yankees do have the best record over the last several weeks of the season, they also have the highest post-All-Star-Break ERA of any team in the playoffs:

CLE 3.57
COL 3.86
BOS 3.98
CHN 4.16
ARI 4.31
LAA 4.39
PHI 4.55
NYY 4.65

Perhaps their plan is to win by scoring 8 runs a game throughout the playoffs. They just might do that with the lineup they bought, but offense-only teams tend to get derailed somewhere on their march to the title.

Or Joba could throw 20 innings of high-leverage 0.45 ERA ball bridging to Rivera, and they post a playoff ERA of 2.75 on the way to another title.

While the Yankees do have the best record over the last several weeks of the season

By "several", I assume that you mean "twenty".

By "several", I assume that you mean "twenty".

Yeah, whatever. I was just too lazy to count it out.

I predict the Yankees will lose Game 1 after using several pitcher whom I was not aware were actually Yankees. I'll make my Game 2 prediction in about 24 hours.