all of the Arizona fans who have an Internet in their retirement village will be waving canes in silver's general direction when they hear about this

I'm waving a biro in the manner of a indignant villager with a pitchfork from my London office if that's any help.

all of the Arizona fans who have an Internet in their retirement village will be waving canes in silver's general direction when they hear about this

Most of the people in Arizona retirement homes will probably be rooting for the Cubs.

Who is Nate Silver?

Who is Nate Silver?

Phil Nevin says hi.

I didn't see a mention of the Diamondbacks' predominately RH hitting lineup against Lilly and Hill for the 3 non-Zambrano games, nor the matchup of Webb against the predominately RH hitting lineup of the Cubs. The Cubs may have been the better overall team in 2007 as Silver says, but they are presented with some unfavorable matchups here. Of course Davis vs the Cub lineup doesn't look good for Arizona.

Davis has pretty much had his way with the Cubs over the past several years, despite his lefthandedness.

And despite the righthandedness of their lineup, the Cubs had a much better record against righthanded starters than against lefties this year (and this has been true in other recent years as well).

The Diamondbacks will gets trounced twice in this series, but win three one run games to take the series.

What does Will Carroll say?

With 100% being league average, I have the Cubs a 96% against lefties and a 101% versus righties. Arizona is .89 against lefties and a .96 versus righties. That's just a raw number without any adjustments for park or talent level of pitchers faced, so it may or may not be worthless.

Webb has been really really good against right handers this year. I hope he can continue dominating them in the Cubs series

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7121/splits

He's allowed only 4 homers to RHB, and one of them was a foul ball by Austin Kearns that was called a home run. If he can keep the ball in the ballpark, I have faith in him.

Look at that Arizona bench. Yeesh. I'd set the over-under on Micah Owings pinch-hit appearances at 1 1/2.

I'd set the over-under on Micah Owings pinch-hit appearances at 1 1/2.

The way he hits, Owings should be the 1st or 2nd bat off of anyone's bench.

I think that as goes game 1, so goes the series.

I don't know that I like pushing Z to start on 3 days rest should 4 games be needed either way -- I personally wouldn't pencil anyone into the game 4 start until I knew what game 4 meant. If it's 2-1, I think I take my chances with a Marshall (too late for that this series, though) or even a *gulp* Marquis. If it's 1-2, then I push Zambrano. Z-Lilly-Hill-playitbyear works for me. Maybe it's a motivational tactic or something, but penciling your ace into a game 4 start of the first round smacks of far too early desperation.

It's not so much looking ahead - it just seems pointless. The Cubs are basically ensuring that, unless it's a sweep, should they make it to the NLCS, they'll only get to throw Zambrano twice. I'd rather stretch him on short rest in a 7 game series. If they NEED two wins from Zambrano in the first round, I think the series goes 5 anyway. Why mortgage an NLCS start until you're certain you have to?

...'course, I think it's all moot if Webb wins game 1 anyway.

If he can keep the ball in the ballpark, I have faith in him.

This sentence is incorrect. It should read

"I have faith he can keep the ball in the ballpark" ;)

I predict that somebody will be surprised by this series.

He's allowed only 4 homers to RHB, and one of them was a foul ball by Austin Kearns that was called a home run. If he can keep the ball in the ballpark, I have faith in him.

The Cubs aren't a homer dependent offense (8th in runs and 11th in home runs). I don't know if that makes them less vulnerable to Webb's strenths or not.

I don't know that I like pushing Z to start on 3 days rest should 4 games be needed either way -- I personally wouldn't pencil anyone into the game 4 start until I knew what game 4 meant.

If the team is waiting to see what happens to determine the game four starter they might represent to Z that it will be him so that he is mentally prepared should it come to that.

Arizona in 5!!

He's allowed only 4 homers to RHB, and one of them was a foul ball by Austin Kearns that was called a home run. If he can keep the ball in the ballpark, I have faith in him.

The Cubs aren't a homer dependent offense (8th in runs and 11th in home runs). I don't know if that makes them less vulnerable to Webb's strenths or not.

They hit 45 homers in September. Their offensive surge the last month was definitely tied to the long ball.
Cubs runs scored and HR's, but month

Apr 112-19
May 119-25
Jun 133-30
Jul 126-13
Aug 118-19
Sep 144-45

The Cubs showed they can string hits together and score runs without homers, especially in July, but clearly their offense kicked into a higher gear in September when they went homer crazy. If they keep that up through the playoffs, then they will be a very tough matchup for the D backs. D backs struggle against HR hitting teams.

I predict that somebody will be surprised by this series.

It won't be me. Outside of specific random unexpected events (e.g., somebody dropping their pants on national television or an unassisted triple play or something like that) nothing that could happen in this series would surprise me. D-Backs win in 3 - no surprise, they won 90 games. Cubs sweep - no surprise, they match up well w/ the D-Backs. Webb allows 12 runs - hey, Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez can really hit; Livan throws a 2-hit shutout - the Cubs offense has had some pretty bad dry spells this season.

I'm really looking forward to this series in large part because I have no idea what to expect from either team. That said, I tend to agree with zonk - as Game 1 goes, so goes the series.

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!

this sophistry is making me all warm inside. Go somebody

I'm really excited about this series, and irritated that the first two games are played so late.

I didn't see a mention of the Diamondbacks' predominately RH hitting lineup against Lilly and Hill for the 3 non-Zambrano games

That may actually work against them when it comes to Lilly. Lilly was slightly better this year against righties (.230/.284/.407) than he was against lefties (.258/.294/.404).

That said, I tend to agree with zonk - as Game 1 goes, so goes the series.

I dunno. I think even if the Cubs lose tonight's game, they've still got an excellent shot at winning the series. Lilly v. Davis has to favor the Cubs despite Davis's history against the Cubs. And Livan's pitching in Game 3 at Wrigley. I think the Cubs still could have a very good shot at going up 2-1 in the series even if they lose tonight.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, I think have to see tonight's game as a must-win. If they lose with Webb on the mound, given the rest of the matchups for the series, they're going to be in serious trouble.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, I think have to see tonight's game as a must-win. If they lose with Webb on the mound, given the rest of the matchups for the series, they're going to be in serious trouble.

CONCUR. I think it means more to them than to the Cubs. The DBacks are favored tonight, and in game 5, but the Cubs are favored in the other 3. Anyone who thinks if the Cubs lose tonight that they're likely to lose the series is a pessimist. Optimistic thoughts only, people. Even levski's pipe dream of 2 Tony Clark HR is acceptable under this policy.

Even levski's pipe dream of 2 Tony Clark HR is acceptable under this policy.

Meh. That's pretty realistic. What's pushing it is calling for 2 Tony Clark homers in the same inning, or two grand slams by Tony Clark in the game. But I believe.

Anybody, anytime!

D backs struggle against HR hitting teams.

So does every other team.

They hit 45 homers in September. Their offensive surge the last month was definitely tied to the long ball.

Their September surge was also tied to the fact that of their last 30 games, 26 of them were played against the pitching staffs ranked 11th (StL), 12th (Hou), 14th, (Pit), 15th (Cin) and 16th (Fla) in Runs Allowed in the NL.

As soon as I looked ahead, back in August, to the Cubs' September schedule, I knew they'd have a hot month. They only played one series against a team with a winning record, and that was the nosediving Dodgers...

The only things I would be on in this series:

1. Eric Byrnes playing like crap.
2. Melvin sticking with at least one starter for way, way too long.

It's strange to read a BP profile of a playoff series with no comment about strength of division. The NL West was quite a bit better than the NL Central, and with the unbalanced schedule it is necessary to take this into account in evaluating the strength of the clubs.

The THT articles are significantly more enlightening.

When your leadoff man has an OBP of under .300, you know you've got a few weaknesses...