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Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Put Gator in the Hall: The Guidry Decade

Sorta like that pro-Jim Rice/HOF dude…except with a deep hankerin’ for tailgators creole boulette po’boy.

The fact is that most HOF pitchers were truly great for a period of about ten years. Pitchers like Walter Johnson, Maddux, Spahn, Clemens and Seaver who had multiple outstanding seasons outside their peak decade are the exception, not the rule. It is clear that Ron Guidry had a peak decade that is comparable to the peak decades of many Hall of Famers - Bunning, Drysdale, Lemon, Wynn, Sutton, Gomez, Hunter, Jenkins, Ruffing and Roberts, among others. It is also clear that none of these pitchers did anything outside of their peak decade that materially added to their HOF resume.

* * * * * *

I would humbly submit that by any statistical measure Guidry’s HOF qualifications are the equal of Bunning’s, Dyrsdale’s, Lemon’s, Newhouser’s, Vance’s and Gomez’s. To the extent they won more games in their career it is because they pitched in the era of four-man rotations. I would also submit that Guidry’s HOF qualifications are the equal of Ruffing’s, Hunter’s, Sutton’s and Niekro’s. To the extent they won more games than Guidry they did so primarily because they had many more seasons where they were perhaps competent major league pitchers but not HOF quality pitchers.

There will no doubt be those who argue that many of these pitchers don’t meet their particular idea of HOFers. Hunter, Bunning and Drysdale are examples of more recent HOF inductees who are frequently characterized as marginal inductees. Vance, Newhouser, Coveleski, Pennock, Hoyt and Faber are just a few examples of other pitchers who have been deemed by many to be marginal HOFers. I think it is fair to say that Guidry’s HOF qualifications stack up pretty well against the qualifications of all the pitchers I’ve named in this paragraph. If one wants to argue nonetheless that Guidry doesn’t belong in the Hall then they are in effect arguing for a much smaller Hall of Fame and for HOF standards that are radically more restrictive than the standards that have been observed for the last 75 years.

Repoz Posted: March 17, 2010 at 12:47 PM | 288 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   101. Hugh Jorgan Posted: March 17, 2010 at 08:50 PM (#3481082)
Wow Tommy, uh...we get it. You reckon Stieb is an overated chocker and Guidry belongs in the hall. I reckon we should try to twist this thing into an Ichiro! for the hall so we can get Ray going also...

As someone mentioned 60 or so posts ago, comparing your guy to the worst guys in the hall whom most of us don't reckon belong anyway is a weak argument.
   102. Tommy in CT Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:00 PM (#3481087)
I assume you did a similar analysis for Hoyt, Dotson, and Morris, yes?

Didn't think so.


You're missing the point here. I've been told that Guidry's 1983 season wasn't that good, and that Stieb's was better. It's complete nonsense.

Stieb had a 3.04 ERA. That looks pretty good, right? But why did Stieb have just a 17-12 record? His run support wasn't great, but it was about league average. You know what wasn't average? Stieb's performance in the clutch. With a lead of four or more runs Stieb improved his performance by 44%! Boy, that buffed up the ol' ERA but didn't make much difference to his team. I'll tell you what made a difference to his team - Stieb's 46% DECLINE in performance in high leverage situations, and his 27% DECLINE in late and close situations. Those failures to perform when it counted most cost the Jays some games that year.

Contrast Guidry. Guidry was the opposite of Stieb, declining in performance in low leverage situations but improving by 43% in high leverage situations.

These patterns persisted over their entire careers. It's why Guidry won far more than Stieb.
   103. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3481090)
Let me give you an example. Guidry goes 21-9 in 1983 with a 113 ERA+. Lamarr Hoyt goes 24-10 with a 3.66 ERA and wins the Cy Young.

Guidry was the best starting pitcher in the AL that year, and it wasn't even really close.


Allow me to throw some Tommy analysis right back atcha.

On July 13, 1983, the Sox were 1.5 games back. Hoyt at the time was 9-9. From that point, to the rest of the season, Hoyt went 15-1, winning all but 2 of his starts, and his season ERA dropped from 4.35 to 3.66 as the Sox won their first title of any stripe in 24 years. If that's not the best pitcher in the league, I don't know what is. If Guidry did that, you would no doubt proclaim it as one of the greatest seasons ever.
   104. Srul Itza Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:05 PM (#3481093)
Allow me to throw some Tommy analysis right back atcha.


Life imitates art:


What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
   105. phredbird Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:07 PM (#3481094)
as a pure bleed cajun, i would like to see ron guidry in the hall. i can't speak to his qualifications, though. i was never much of a AL fan.
   106. mex4173 Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:18 PM (#3481101)
Speaking generally, (because I do see Guidry had 21 CGs in '83) I'm not sure how a pitcher can know when it is safe to give up X amount of runs, except in the ninth inning of a game. And even then, how they can be sure the next batter(s) won't go on a roll. Seems really risky.
   107. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:20 PM (#3481103)
Contrast Guidry. Guidry was the opposite of Stieb, declining in performance in low leverage situations but improving by 43% in high leverage situations.

Dotson was almost identical in this respect - improved by 40% in high leverage, declined 37% in low leverage. But clearly, he didn't earn his record.
   108. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:28 PM (#3481109)
Life imitates art:


And yet, you don't seem to be able to turn away.

I assume you did a similar analysis for Hoyt, Dotson, and Morris, yes?

Didn't think so.



You're missing the point here. I've been told that Guidry's 1983 season wasn't that good, and that Stieb's was better. It's complete nonsense.


I see. The point about dismissing Hoyt (he of the 15-1 second half record, but never mind that) and Dotson (he of the 13-2 second half record, but never mind that), and adjusting Guidry's (and only Guidry's) ERA downward by throwing out meaningless runs, was to show that Guidry was better than Steib. Got it.

What was the middle thing?
   109. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:32 PM (#3481113)
Contrast Guidry. Guidry was the opposite of Stieb, declining in performance in low leverage situations but improving by 43% in high leverage situations.

Dotson was almost identical in this respect - improved by 40% in high leverage, declined 37% in low leverage. But clearly, he didn't earn his record.



No, no, no. Only Guidry gets a favorable deeper analysis. All others only get one if it is unfavorable.
   110. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:33 PM (#3481115)
I'm trying to remember where I read something like this for the first time... I think it was Bill James, referring to somebody else who'd been advocating Richie Ashburn for the HoF. Approximately "This person doesn't care about facts. This person cares about Richie Ashburn." Doesn't (by itself) make anybody a bad person, but still.
   111. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:33 PM (#3481116)
It's hard for the "manifestly insane" to get it, but Tommy's premise is fully explained at this website.
   112. Steve Treder Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:37 PM (#3481121)
The style is drearily familiar to that of RossCW.
   113. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:43 PM (#3481126)
The style is drearily familiar to that of RossCW.


The two are rapidly converging.
   114. Tommy in CT Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:45 PM (#3481127)
Hoyt went 15-1, winning all but 2 of his starts, and his season ERA dropped from 4.35 to 3.66 as the Sox won their first title of any stripe in 24 years. If that's not the best pitcher in the league, I don't know what is. If Guidry did that, you would no doubt proclaim it as one of the greatest seasons ever.


Nice try, but you didn't check your game logs close enough. Hoyt's ERA over that stretch was 2.92 - good, but not 15-1 good. Hell, that 2.92 wouldn't have even won the ERA title that year (or finished 2nd). Let me ask you: if a pitcher goes 15-1 over 18 starts with a 2.92 ERA but gets 6.5 RUNS PER GAME run support, which is more responsible for that 15-1 record?

If Guidry had compiled a 2.92 ERA over August and September of '77 or '78 I would have declared it a disaster. Guidry was 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA over his last 13 starts in '77, and 12-2 with a 1.16 ERA over his last 16 starts in '78. Yeah, you read that right: 1.16 ERA over 16 starts. Am I supposed to be impressed with Hoyt's performance?

You really can't expect a Guidry fan to be impressed with a 2.92 ERA down the stretch.
   115. Meatwad is on team keefe Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:47 PM (#3481129)
and tommy you cant expect us to be impressed with your half assed piss poor analysis sound fair?
   116. Los Angeles ALBERT F. PUJOLS of Anaheim Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:48 PM (#3481132)
Hoyt's ERA over that stretch was 2.92 - good, but not 15-1 good.
It must have been 15-1 good, because that's the record he ended up with.
   117. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:53 PM (#3481138)
You really can't expect a Guidry fan to be impressed with a 2.92 ERA down the stretch.

1. It's not just "down the stretch" - it's almost the entire second half of the season.
2. Even accounting for run support, you wouldn't expect 15-1. Which pitchers get credit for outperforming Pythag, and which ones don't?
3. So can we consider Guidry's Septembers in 1980 (3.19) and 1985 (4.76) to be "disasters"?
   118. Tommy in CT Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:54 PM (#3481140)
Many of you throw around this ERA+ stat as if it was the holy grail of pitching stats. In fact, it's rather more like batting average in the sense that it weights every hit the same, without regard to the difference between an home run and a single. LevERA+ adjusts for the significance of the run, lending more weight to a run that's surrendered (or not surrendered) in a high-leverage situation and less weight to runs allowed (or not allowed) in low leverage situations. The weightings are based on win probabilities added or subtracted. The data can be found at Fangraphs.com.

If I follow the Guidry blog correctly in its description of LevERA+ and how to calculate it, Stieb had a 119 LevERA+ while Guidry had a 124.3 LevERA+. For those of you who thought Stieb's 122 to 119 edge over Guidry in ERA+ was big, I'd point out that Guidry has about a five point edge on Stieb in LevERA+.

To count every run as the same is like counting every hit the same. But we know that Tony Gwynn wasn't a better hitter than Alex Rodgriguez or Manny Ramirez; he got more hits but they were the wrong kind of hits. Similarly, when one weights the runs allowed by a pitcher depending on its impact on the game situation, it's clear that Guidry was distinctly better than Stieb.
   119. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:55 PM (#3481141)
12-2 with a 1.16 ERA over his last 16 starts in '78. Yeah, you read that right: 1.16 ERA over 16 starts. Am I supposed to be impressed with Hoyt's performance?


Yes, because as you have explained to us time and again, ERA doesn't matter, it's the wins. Hoyt won 15 of 17 starts. Guidry won a mere 12 of 16.

You wouldn't be 1/10 as annoying if you were simply consistent in your arguments. ERA doesn't matter, except when it does. Wins matter a lot, except when they don't. Awards really matter, except when they hurt your case. September stats are the most important, unless the other guy was terrible in August.
   120. Tommy in CT Posted: March 17, 2010 at 09:59 PM (#3481143)
1. It's not just "down the stretch" - it's almost the entire second half of the season.
2. Even accounting for run support, you wouldn't expect 15-1. Which pitchers get credit for outperforming Pythag, and which ones don't?
3. So can we consider Guidry's Septembers in 1980 (3.19) and 1985 (4.76) to be "disasters"?


1.16, bro'. That was over 16 starts, or about the entire second half of the '78 season. That's "ONE POINT ONE SIX".

Oh, by the way, Hoyt's 2.92 covered 126.1 innings; Guidry's 1.16 covered 124.2 innings.

You do the math. I'll give you a hint though: 1.16 is a lot lower than 2.92. Now break out your abacus.
   121. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 17, 2010 at 10:02 PM (#3481146)
1.16, bro'. That was over 16 starts, or about the entire second half of the '78 season. That's "ONE POINT ONE SIX".

(Shuffles beads around)

Yes, Ron Guidry's 1978 is better than LaMarr Hoyt's 1983. But Guidry's '78 wasn't eligible to win the '83 Cy Young award, for some strange reason.

I honestly don't even know what we're arguing about any more.
   122. Tommy in CT Posted: March 17, 2010 at 10:03 PM (#3481147)
Yes, because as you have explained to us time and again, ERA doesn't matter, it's the wins. Hoyt won 15 of 17 starts. Guidry won a mere 12 of 16.


Just learning how to read, are you? You can't show me where I said ERA "doesn't matter." I said it CAN be misleading, although it's helpful where this is a very large difference in ERAs. And while you're brushing up on your remedial reading skills, consider this: the difference between 1.16 and 2.92 is HUGE.

P.S. Have you tried the Cat In The Hat books yet? My children found them an enjoyable way to learn how to read.
   123. Los Angeles ALBERT F. PUJOLS of Anaheim Posted: March 17, 2010 at 10:07 PM (#3481149)
You wouldn't be 1/10 as annoying if you were simply consistent in your arguments.
Are you kidding? This is why I like Tommy in CT! Bad arguments force people to make good arguments to refute them. There's a ton of good, smart analysis in the Tommy in CT threads. Tommy's not making them, but that's beside the point. We need Tommy in CT!
   124. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: March 17, 2010 at 10:08 PM (#3481151)
I give. Tommy is right, Guidry belongs in the Hall of Fame Yankees along with Mattingly, Bernie Wililams and Paul O'Neill.
   125. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 17, 2010 at 10:09 PM (#3481152)
I'm starting to wonder if T-CT isn't some poor schlub at Mercury Insurance Group, trying to drive up page views.

Did Bill Fremp get a new job? He's improved his technique considerably.
   126. Meatwad is on team keefe Posted: March 17, 2010 at 10:18 PM (#3481157)
i gotta be honest iv never head of LevERA+, now i could of just never heard of it (im sure there are other stats i dont know about)
   127. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 17, 2010 at 10:25 PM (#3481164)
why are you arguing with this mushwit?
   128. Srul Itza Posted: March 17, 2010 at 10:26 PM (#3481165)
And yet, you don't seem to be able to turn away.


Train wrecks and car crashes have that effect on people. Thankfully, I have Tommy on ignore; it is the spectacle of people trying to "reason" with him that is mesmerizing.
   129. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: March 17, 2010 at 10:31 PM (#3481169)
why are you arguing with this mushwit?


As I said in another Tommy thread. It amuses me. It generates a lot of high quality snark, like this one:

But Guidry's '78 wasn't eligible to win the '83 Cy Young award, for some strange reason.


That's Gold Jerry. Gold!
   130. Josh1 Posted: March 18, 2010 at 01:21 AM (#3481235)
If we're going to use a context-dependent stats and want to make an honest argument, let's not choose weird cherry-picked stats with long stories and just examine WPA. Steib is a little worse than Guidry in WPA but a little better in WPA/LI. It's not clear Guidry's "clutchness" in games was enough to offset Steib's edge in ERA+. Steib had a great WPA prime but was dragged down to Guidry's career level by bad scores in his last three seasons. Steib of course also pitched many more innings in his career and would have a reasonable edge in WPA over replacement.

Tommy, what do you think of WPA?
   131. Mr. J. Penny Smoltzuzaka Posted: March 18, 2010 at 01:56 AM (#3481253)
This whole thread frightens me - the last time this topic of Guidry in the HOF was discussed in a thread I was half scared out of my wits.

What I fear is that there is nothing in my life (outside of family) I care as passionately and as deeply as T. in CT does about Guidry getting into the HOF. Nothing. Why debate, why try to reason, why argue?

P.S. Have you tried the Cat In The Hat books yet? My children found them an enjoyable way to learn how to read.
Oh, yes and our favorite passage...

"Oh-oh!" Sally said.
"Don't you talk to that cat.
That Cat in the Hat.
He plays lots of bad tricks.
Don't you let him come near.
You know what he did
The last time he was here."
   132. Howie Menckel Posted: March 18, 2010 at 03:00 AM (#3481278)
I take this all as performance art by Tommy - the guy has a bit of talent and even a decent point at times, as you can see in a stray post here or there.

But it's incite-minded posting, with a predetermined outcome of "analysis."

No need for anyone to get too riled up.
   133. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: March 18, 2010 at 03:53 AM (#3481295)
Guidry for the Hall of Fame. Ichiro not. Check and double check. Who's next for inclusion / exclusion in the Bizarro World?

It's a.......l o n g......t i m e between October and April, isn't it?
   134. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 18, 2010 at 04:33 AM (#3481309)
Guidry for the Hall of Fame. Ichiro not. Check and double check.

Has anyone actually taken both of these positions?

Who's next for inclusion / exclusion in the Bizarro World?

Bonds, Clemens, Manny, and A-Rod all out?
   135. DetroitMichael Posted: March 18, 2010 at 02:59 PM (#3481534)
Fine job on post #131.

I don't see LevERA+ on Fangraphs.com, although I could be overlooking it somewhere.

I'd be glad to stop using ERA+ (see post #23) in favor of measurements that vary the weighting based on the leverage if I found an appropriate statistic that was widely available throughout baseball history.
   136. Josh1 Posted: March 18, 2010 at 03:43 PM (#3481574)
Let's note the other favorite whipping boy on Guidry threads, Saberhagen, had a higher WPA and WPA/LI than Guidry did over his career. Surprisingly Sabes's 1989 beat Guidry's 1978 in WPA (but not in WPA/LI), and Bret's next few best seasons are also better than Guidry's by WPA.
   137. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: March 18, 2010 at 03:49 PM (#3481578)
Guidry for the Hall of Fame. Ichiro not. Check and double check.

Has anyone actually taken both of these positions?


I hope not, but if Tommy married Ray you never can tell what their first box of chocolates might bring us.
   138. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: March 18, 2010 at 04:30 PM (#3481605)
Thankfully, I have Tommy on ignore; it is the spectacle of people trying to "reason" with him that is mesmerizing.


Who don't you have on Ignore? I half suspect you saw me agree once with kevin or Backlasher or someone and put me on Ignore.
   139. DL from MN Posted: March 18, 2010 at 04:32 PM (#3481609)
I can speak as a HoM voter, and Guidry's close enough to be worth discussing. I have him 51st on my current rankings of unelected eligible players (23rd among pitchers) and 51st is rounding error from 35th and 75th (or in other words there are several players as good as Ron Guidry). He's darned near the spitting image of Lefty Gomez, but I have Gomez ranked 112th due to era differences. You only need a Hall a _little_ bit bigger to get Guidry in. Isn't that what most of these discussions devolve into?

I saw someone else mention Drysdale shouldn't be in. Drysdale is my 36th ranked pitcher. A Hall without him isn't worth visiting. Stieb ranks lower but still clearly above the line.

Guidry is near the bottom of the HoM standard. I am already convinced Guidry was better than Rollie Fingers and Bob Lemon. He's pretty close to Red Faber and Mordecai Brown. I'm also not a peak voter so I really don't care how many years it took to accumulate value, just the sum total. Guidry has a good career but falls a little short of Stieb, Saberhagen, Tiant, Cone, Reuschel, Tommy John, Appier and Gooden among modern pitchers. I do like Guidry better than Hershiser and Chuck Finley.
   140. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: March 18, 2010 at 04:49 PM (#3481628)
Guidry has a good career but falls a little short of Stieb, Saberhagen, Tiant, Cone, Reuschel, Tommy John, Appier and Gooden among modern pitchers.


That should be good for another 100 posts.
   141. cerberus Posted: March 18, 2010 at 04:53 PM (#3481629)
Simply put, Stieb was more dominant than Key or Guidry. Look at top 10 finishes in whip, innings pitched, strikeouts, complete games, shutouts, and adjusted era+.

TOP 10 LEADERBORD FINISHES

DAVE STIEB 38

22 TOP 5
19 TOP 3
6 TIMES A LEAGUE LEADER

-----------------------------------------------

RON GUIDRY 30

19 TOP 5
12 TOP 3
5 TIMES A LEAGUE LEADER

-----------------------------------------------

JIMMY KEY 21

6 TOP 5 FINISHES
4 TOP 3 FINISHES
2 TIMES A LEAGUE LEADER
   142. Srul Itza Posted: March 18, 2010 at 05:09 PM (#3481636)
Who don't you have on Ignore? I half suspect you saw me agree once with kevin or Backlasher or someone and put me on Ignore.


I never put you or BL on Ignore. The site put kevin on ignore.
   143. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 05:48 PM (#3481667)
Simply put, Stieb was more dominant than Key or Guidry. Look at top 10 finishes in whip, innings pitched, strikeouts, complete games, shutouts, and adjusted era+.


Your basically describing the Black Ink/Gray Ink statistics, and they don't bear out your claim that Stieb was more dominant than Guidry. Guidry has the distinct edge in Black Ink points, 29 to 17. They are essentially even in Gray Ink - 142 for Stieb and 140 for Guidry. These stats are in part a function of how many seasons a pitcher even qualified for leadership in rate stats, and Stieb had 11 seasons where he pitched enough innings to qualify; Guidry had 10.

Yes, Key was not as "dominant" as Stieb and Guidry by this measure. The guy was a winner, however, pitching well in the clutch and posting very good winning percentages relative to his teams. Stieb, by contrast, tended to underperform relative to what his ERAs would suggest, and significantly underperformed Pythagorean projections in his very best years of '82 to '85.

Key and Stieb are almost twins on career stats. Key gets the edge for having a much better winning percentage, better clutch performance and a much better postseason record.
   144. Jeff R., P***y Mainlander Posted: March 18, 2010 at 06:10 PM (#3481689)
Simply put, Stieb was more dominant than Key or Guidry. Look at top 10 finishes in whip, innings pitched, strikeouts, complete games, shutouts, and adjusted era+.


Stieb also beats the tar out of Guidry in terms of durability. Over his first 10 years, Guidry averages 218 IP. Stieb averages 233. Guidry averages 77% of the IP leader's innings, Stieb 85%. I'm not sure how much Guidry's ERA was increased by being left in to absorb late-inning runs when he never once came close to leading the league in innings (closest was 92% of the leader in '78; Stieb was at 90% or more from '81 to '85). If you're not putting up ace pitching rate stats, you better make it up in quantity, and Guidry sure didn't do that.
   145. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: March 18, 2010 at 06:16 PM (#3481696)
My bad, Srul. I apologize.
   146. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 06:54 PM (#3481734)
If you're not putting up ace pitching rate stats, you better make it up in quantity, and Guidry sure didn't do that.


Stieb led the league in rate stats only five times - once in ERA, twice in ERA+ and twice in hits/inning. Guidry led the league in rate stats TEN TIMES - twice in ERA, twice in winning percentage, twice in WHIP, once in ERA+, once in hits/inning, once in fewest bb/inning and once in SO/BB ratio.

Glavine led the league in rate stats once. Schilling led 11 times, taking far longer than Guidry to accumulate those titles. Saberhagen led in rate stats nine times. Carlton led eight times.

Guess these guys weren't aces. Perhaps you could define "ace pitching rate stats."
   147. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:15 PM (#3481751)
Guidry led the league in rate stats TEN TIMES - twice in ERA, twice in winning percentage, twice in WHIP, once in ERA+, once in hits/inning, once in fewest bb/inning and once in SO/BB ratio.


Did seven of those "ten"* happen in the same season?
   148. Jeff R., P***y Mainlander Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:15 PM (#3481753)
Guess these guys weren't aces. Perhaps you could define "ace pitching rate stats."


Not only does Stieb trump Guidry in ERA+, he also throws in another 15 innings per season. A fair comparison between the two, looking at their first 10 years, requires one to give Guidry 150 innings of replacement pitching, dropping his ERA+ even further. Every extra inning from a great starter takes an inning away from a garbage reliever. Guidry could make the top 10 in IP in the league only 3 times. Great pitchers not only pitch well, but they take the ball and give the team all they've got. I'm not sure why Guidry was so babied by the Yankees and couldn't average more than a pedestrian 218 innings in his prime years.
   149. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:19 PM (#3481756)
Guidry has a good career but falls a little short of Stieb, Saberhagen, Tiant, Cone, Reuschel, Tommy John, Appier and Gooden among modern pitchers.


This claim is simply absurd. Reuschel? Barely a .500 pitcher. A 114 ERA+. Never led the league in wins, ERA, winning percentage, or strikeouts. He pitched 19 seasons and garnered SEVEN Black Ink points and 111 Gray, both far less than Guidry accumulated in a much shorter career. Guidry beats him on every rate stat of significance. Reuschel had two third place Cy Young finishes 11 years apart. Guidry had six top seven finishes in nine years, including 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th place finishes.

Appier led the league in a major category in only one year, when he won the ERA and ERA+ title in the same year. He received Cy Young votes in one year. He made the all-star team once. He made six post-season starts and didn't win any. He won more than 15 games in a season ONCE. Are you serious?

Guidry beats Gooden in ERA, ERA+, winning percentage, WHIP, bb/inning, and SO/bb ratio. Gooden didn't lead the league in a single statistical category after his second year. After his first three years his ERA+ was 101 for the rest of his career. And Gooden made NINE post-season starts and didn't win ANY.

Tiant had a longer career, but Guidry beats him in EVERY rate stat. I love Luis, but get real.

You really can't be serious.
   150. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:24 PM (#3481760)
Gooden didn't lead the league in a single statistical category after his second year.

Other than that, how did you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
   151. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:26 PM (#3481762)
Did seven of those "ten"* happen in the same season?


No. They were compiled over five different seasons. Take away '78 completely and he still led the league in rate stats as many times as Stieb and more times than Glavine.

This misconception that Guidry didn't have a single worthy year other than '78 is ridiculous. He started the year in the bullpen in his first full season because he'd never started in the minors. Notwithstanding that, he was the best pitcher in baseball over the 2nd half of the '77 season. He was the best pitcher in baseball in '78. He was the best pitcher in baseball in '79. He made four different Sporting News All-Star teams - '78, '81, '83 and '85, and he should have made it in '79, too.

Can you even spell "baseball"?
   152. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:29 PM (#3481766)
Other than that, how did you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln?


Well, if that's your attitude, then Guidry's '78 season ought to be enough, and the fact that he led the league in ERA after that season, in winning percentage, in WHIP, in complete games and in wins should all be gravy, right?
   153. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:32 PM (#3481767)
Can you even spell "baseball"?

Well, now that you gave away the answer...

Well, if that's your attitude, then Guidry's '78 season ought to be enough, and the fact that he led the league in ERA after that season, in winning percentage, in WHIP, in complete games and in wins should all be gravy, right?

My attitude is that you shouldn't ignore a pitcher's first two seasons, especially when they might be the best first two seasons any pitcher has ever had. (Yes, they are almost Gooden's entire case, and no, I wouldn't put him in the Hall for that reason.)
   154. tl; dr (Voxter) Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:33 PM (#3481769)
DON'T FEED THE TROLLS
   155. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:36 PM (#3481772)
Can you even spell "baseball"?

OK, attempting to refute your stupid, stupid "point" (whatever that may be at present) is one thing, but when you challenge my ability to spell, sirrah, you write your own death warrant!
Pistols at dawn, then?
   156. Ron Johnson Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:38 PM (#3481778)
#154, I honestly don't think he's trolling.

I also honestly don't think he can be reasoned with, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff in the responses to Tommy.
   157. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:51 PM (#3481793)
Oh, and Guidry was the best pitcher in baseball in '85, too.
   158. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:51 PM (#3481795)
I just wish I knew what Tommy was arguing for here. If this is all a "Guidry belongs in the Hall" argument that putting him up against Dave Steib and a bunch of guys who most everyone here would agree is at the back end of the Hall (at best) seems like the wrong way to do it. If he's arguing something else, well, I don't know what that is.

I'll admit, it was nice to have Rich Dotson a part of my life for a short time yesterday though.
   159. Swoboda is freedom Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:51 PM (#3481796)
Gooden didn't lead the league in a single statistical category after his second year.

But he did get Cy Young votes in 3 years (finished 7th, 5th and 4th), so by your definition, had good years.
   160. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:52 PM (#3481798)
Oh, and Guidry was the best pitcher in baseball in '85, too.


Please have the decency to amend this to "American League." That's debatable at least (I suppose) but you aren't going to argue he was better than Gooden that year, right?
   161. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:54 PM (#3481801)
Oh, and Guidry was the best pitcher in baseball in '85, too.


Better than GOODEN, in 1985?!?
Now I'm convinced: troll.

EDIT: lemon in your Coke, Jose?
   162. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 07:58 PM (#3481803)
My attitude is that you shouldn't ignore a pitcher's first two seasons, especially when they might be the best first two seasons any pitcher has ever had.


They were great seasons. Guidry's first two seasons were slightly better, but he's the only other guy that can compare to Gooden's first two seasons. They won the same number of games, had virtually identical ERA+, and Guidry had the edge in winning percentage. Guidry gets the edge because of the spectacular big-game record in the post-season and the playoff game at Fenway. Guidry was 5-0 in those games over his first two seasons with an ERA around 2.20.

By the way, Gooden wasn't lucky enough to make the post-season in '84 or '85, but he was absolutely spectacular in September in those two pennant races, comparable to Guidry in '77 and '78, although the races weren't as tight.
   163. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:00 PM (#3481805)
I just wish I knew what Tommy was arguing for here.

You have it, pretty much: Guidry is better than some marginal HOFers, possibly better than the most marginal HOMers, and might have been better than non-Guidry people who won the Cy Young in a couple of years.
He is not (so far as I can tell) capable of coherent argument, on any point.
   164. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:03 PM (#3481806)
Please have the decency to amend this to "American League." That's debatable at least (I suppose) but you aren't going to argue he was better than Gooden that year, right?


Ouch. My bad. Yes, Dwight was the best that year, and had the best season in the 20 years between Guidry and Pedro. And in September, Doc made six starts in the midst of a very tight division race. He didn't allow an earned run in the FIRST FIVE. He had a 0.34 ERA in those six starts. Absolutely amazing.
   165. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:12 PM (#3481809)
They won the same number of games, had virtually identical ERA+, and Guidry had the edge in winning percentage.

Again, you should adjust for the fact that Guidry's team was better. If you do that, they're pretty much even in W-L terms.
   166. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:14 PM (#3481814)
Gooden didn't lead the league in a single statistical category after his second year.

Just now noticed that this isn't strictly true - Gooden allowed the fewest HR/9 in the NL in 1990.
   167. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:15 PM (#3481815)
I'm going to regret this, but how was Guidry better than Saberhagen in 1985?
   168. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:21 PM (#3481818)
Anyway, I should have said "American League" in 1985. Saberhagen padded his stats by beating on the weaklings in the league. Guidry beat them, too, but he also pitched well against the top scoring teams in the league - the Jays, Orioles and Red Sox. He went 6-1 against those teams with an ERA slightly over 3.00. Saberhagen made four starts against those teams and three against the Yankees, who led the league in scoring. He went 3-3 in those games with an ERA over 5.00.

Frankly, that was a pattern in Saberhagen's career. Three of the strongest teams during Saberhagen's career were the Yankees, Blue Jays and Twins. He had an ERA of about 4.40 against those teams, with a 3.85 against the Twins and over 4.50 against the Yanks and Jays. Guidry highest ERA against any team was against the Royals - 3.85 - and he went 15-6 against the Jays!

The Blue Jays owned Saberhagen and the Brewers had a winning record against Saberhagen, too. No one had a winning record against Guidry. Not one team. Guidry didn't pad his stats against the weak teams - he just beat them. And then he beat the good teams, too. Saberhagen tended to get pounded by good teams.
   169. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:26 PM (#3481825)
I'm going to regret this, but how was Guidry better than Saberhagen in 1985?


Or, for that matter, Tommy John or Mike Flanagan in 1979?
(I already know why TCT would say he was better than both Niekros, JR Richard, and Jim Kern -- all of whom were at least arguably better than Guidry)
   170. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:28 PM (#3481828)
Again, you should adjust for the fact that Guidry's team was better. If you do that, they're pretty much even in W-L terms.


The difference was negligible. The Yanks averaged 100 wins those two years, the Met 94. The Mets were no slouches in those years. The real difference is that Guidry had to pitch against AL East power houses like Boston and Baltimore in '77 and '78, and he dominated them. Gooden didn't face quite the same level of competition in the NL East in '84 and '85.
   171. DL from MN Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:29 PM (#3481829)
You really can't be serious.


None of your arguments are "career" arguments. Gray and black ink and Cy Young votes are all peak measures. Rate stats don't make sense without context (innings).

I agree that Gooden's value is pretty concentrated in his first 2 years but they were so far ahead of anyone else that it was pretty tremendous. He wasn't terrible after that and I am a firm believer that average pitching is worth a whole lot more than not pitching.
   172. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:33 PM (#3481837)
Games against bad teams do count though. Guidry's worst ERA against any opponent was against the worst hitting team in the league (Texas). Had he "just beaten them" instead of having the Yankees go 2-2 against them perhaps the Yankees would have won the division that year. You can't just dismiss some games when all games count.
   173. Jeff R., P***y Mainlander Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:34 PM (#3481839)
I agree that Gooden's value is pretty concentrated in his first 2 years but they were so far ahead of anyone else that it was pretty tremendous. He wasn't terrible after that and I am a firm believer that average pitching is worth a whole lot more than not pitching.


Yes, yes, a thousand times yes. Innings pitched at league average runs allowed are hugely valuable. Too bad Guidry was such a wuss he could barely average 200 innings during his supposed awesome prime.
   174. Jeff R., P***y Mainlander Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:39 PM (#3481845)
You can't just dismiss some games when all games count.


You can if they weren't in September. Or sometimes August. Occasionally July. Maybe June. But only if your team name starts with a Y.
   175. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:40 PM (#3481846)
I agree that Gooden's value is pretty concentrated in his first 2 years but they were so far ahead of anyone else that it was pretty tremendous.


More evidence of either virulent Guidry hatred or complete ignorance about baseball.

Both pitchers won 41 games. Gooden lost 13 games, Guidry 10. Gooden had a 176 ERA+, Guidry 170. Gooden had 11 shutouts, Guidry 14. On top of that, Guidry went 5-0 in the post-season (if you include Fenway as post-season).

Can someone please explain to me how Gooden was "so far ahead" of Guidry? Is this guy smoking something? Gooden has a sliver of an edge in ERA+ and that makes his first two seasons "far ahead" of Guidry's? Do you guys diddle yourself to that stat?
   176. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:49 PM (#3481852)
Nah, I diddle myself to porn.
   177. Jeff R., P***y Mainlander Posted: March 18, 2010 at 08:54 PM (#3481857)
Can someone please explain to me how Gooden was "so far ahead" of Guidry? Is this guy smoking something? Gooden has a sliver of an edge in ERA+ and that makes his first two seasons "far ahead" of Guidry's? Do you guys diddle yourself to that stat?


Better ERA over 50 more innings. Once again, Guidry loses both in quality and quantity.
   178. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:03 PM (#3481863)
Better ERA over 50 more innings. Once again, Guidry loses both in quality and quantity.


Wrong again. Guidry pitched 37.1 innings in the post-season, with a 2.17 ERA. So Guidry pitched about the same number of innings with about the same ERA, won five more games than Gooden and had a much better winning percentage, won hugely important games in the post-season, won one of the biggest games in baseball history, won the game that turned around the '78 Series, but Gooden was "far ahead."

If you're trying to convince people you're psychotic, you're almost there.
   179. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:07 PM (#3481865)
Guidry's best 10: 163-79, 121 ERA+.
Gooden's best 10: 154-81, 118 ERA+.
Almost exactly the same # of innings pitched. TCT even acknowledges Gooden's H.R. Clutchnstuff.

But Gooden had 672 more innings of major-league average pitching after those 10 years - 300 more than Guidry. Guidry pitched a little better, but still: 300 innings of average pitching is still extremely valuable.

So, why Guidry, and not Gooden?
   180. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:16 PM (#3481872)
This claim is simply absurd. Reuschel? Barely a .500 pitcher. A 114 ERA+. Never led the league in wins, ERA, winning percentage, or strikeouts. He pitched 19 seasons and garnered SEVEN Black Ink points and 111 Gray, both far less than Guidry accumulated in a much shorter career.


Give Reuschel the Yankees offense and defense, and do the same for Guidry and the above statement would be reversed and then some. I don't expect you to believe it, but Reuschel's 1977 was as valuable as Gudry's 1978 (WAR has it 8.7 Reuschel to 8.5 Guidry). The Cubs had inept offense and historically bad defense. Pedro Martinez would have had a hard time winning 20 with that team.
   181. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:19 PM (#3481876)
And besides that, Reuschel did it (in Nick Tosches' memorable phrase) as a "big fat ####."
Reuschel could hit and field a little, too. Always rooted for that guy.
   182. Jeff R., P***y Mainlander Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:22 PM (#3481879)

Wrong again. Guidry pitched 37.1 innings in the post-season, with a 2.17 ERA. So Guidry pitched about the same number of innings with about the same ERA, won five more games than Gooden and had a much better winning percentage, won hugely important games in the post-season, won one of the biggest games in baseball history, won the game that turned around the '78 Series, but Gooden was "far ahead."


Huh. Funny that in four post-season series, Guidry started 2 games in the 77 ALCS, and only 1 game in the other three series. It's almost as if, during the most important, crucial part of the team's season, the Yankees didn't really see him as their ace.
   183. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:40 PM (#3481892)
I don't expect you to believe it, but Reuschel's 1977 was as valuable as Gudry's 1978 (WAR has it 8.7 Reuschel to 8.5 Guidry).


Rueschel's '77 season was better than Guidry's '78 Season! I've got a stat that says so!

It's a real indictment of this forum that this kind of statement can go unchallenged by the alliterate and innumerate cretins here but any suggestion that Jimmy Key was similar to Dave Stieb is greeted with ridicule. It's very telling that this kind of statement can pass virtually without comment by the statistically challenged geeks in this forum.

My bad, Misirlou. I was misled that the fact that while Guidry set the all-time record for highest winning percentage by a starting pitcher, Rick Reuschel would have been 30-0 if he'd pitched for an average team. I was deceived into believing that Guidry's 208 ERA+ was really inferior to Reuschel's 157, just because Guidry's ERA+ was the highest in the AL in 50 years and because Reuschel didn't even lead his league in ERA+ in '77. I was distracted by Guidry's ratio of shutouts to losses - three to one - and didn't give Reuschel enough credit for finishing 3rd in Cy Young voting.

Here's a stat for you, Misirlou. It's called WARP. It stands for "what a ridiculous person", and it measures the stupidity of people like you. So far, you're leading the league!
   184. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:44 PM (#3481895)
Huh. Funny that in four post-season series, Guidry started 2 games in the 77 ALCS, and only 1 game in the other three series. It's almost as if, during the most important, crucial part of the team's season, the Yankees didn't really see him as their ace.


I suppose it's probably futile to talk statistics with a guy who can't even count the number of post-season series. There were two post-season series, dude. And, yeah, the Yanks didn't want to pitch Guidry. That's why they started him on two days rest in the final game of the ALCS. I'm sure they really didn't WANT to, but figured "what the hell."

Can't read. Can't add. Can't avoid making an ass himself. Hey, you win the Triple Crown!

P.S. The Triple Crown is a baseball concept, dude. It has nothing to do with Dungeons and Dragons, so you probably don't care.
   185. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:46 PM (#3481898)
the alliterate and innumerate cretins here

Our names all start with the same letter?
   186. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:49 PM (#3481899)
EDIT: oh, to heck with it.
   187. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:57 PM (#3481903)
Our names all start with the same letter?


Another moron. Alliteration isn't limited to names, bud. It was a reference to Mainlander's "quality and quantity" remark from his prior post. It's a reference to a rhetorical device, so I'm sure it flew right over your pointy head.
   188. mex4173 Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:57 PM (#3481904)
P.S. The Triple Crown is a baseball concept, dude


Not that it is always reliable, but Wikipedia has Triple Crown originating in 1853 with English horse racing.
   189. JJ1986 Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:59 PM (#3481908)
P.S. The Triple Crown is a baseball concept, dude. It has nothing to do with Dungeons and Dragons, so you probably don't care.


Also, a horse racing concept.

edit: coke to mex
   190. JJ1986 Posted: March 18, 2010 at 10:00 PM (#3481910)
Alliteration isn't limited to names, bud. It was a reference to Mainlander's "quality and quantity" remark from his prior post. It's a reference to a rhetorical device, so I'm sure it flew right over your pointy head.


No. Just admit you lost this one.
   191. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 10:02 PM (#3481911)
Gooden allowed the fewest HR/9 in the NL in 1990.


Gooden had a 98 ERA+ in 1990, but hey, he allowed the fewest HR's per inning! And since Home Runs are the only runs that really count, Gooden's season was great! Hey, Misirlou, another season that was better than Guidry's '78 season!

If stupid were currency, you guys would be printing it.
   192. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 10:03 PM (#3481914)
No. Just admit you lost this one.


I'd love to respond, JJ, but I have rule against engaging with anyone who's posted more than 2500 time at this forum.

Get a life, loser.
   193. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 18, 2010 at 10:05 PM (#3481917)
Can someone please explain to me how Gooden was "so far ahead" of Guidry? Is this guy smoking something? Gooden has a sliver of an edge in ERA+ and that makes his first two seasons "far ahead" of Guidry's? Do you guys diddle yourself to that stat?

This can certainly be parsed further, and I'm not privy to the other posters' diddling techniques, but the claim might have something to do with the context of their most dominant periods.

Guidry, 1977-78 AL:
Wins: 9th, 1st
ERA: 4th, 1st
IP: xx, 7th
Win %: 4th, 1st
WHIP: 5th, 1st
Ks: 9th, 2nd
Ks/9: 3rd, 2nd
K/BB: 6th, 2nd
ERA+: 4th, 1st

In 1977, Guidry was 108 IP behind the league leader (211/319).

Gooden, 1984-85 NL:
Wins: 3rd, 1st
ERA: 2nd, 1st
IP: xx, 1st
Win %: 4th, 2nd
WHIP: 1st, 2nd
Ks: 1st, 1st
Ks/9: 1st, 2nd
K/BB: 2nd, 3rd
ERA+: 2nd, 1st

In 1984, Gooden was 43 IP behind the league leader (218/261).

Guidry's league rankings in the above categories:
1st-- 5; 2nd-- 3; 3rd-- 1; 4th-- 3; 5th-- 1; 6th or lower-- 5

Gooden's league rankings in the above categories:
1st-- 8; 2nd-- 6; 3rd-- 2; 4th--1; 5th-- 0; 6th or lower-- 1
   194. Los Angeles ALBERT F. PUJOLS of Anaheim Posted: March 18, 2010 at 10:08 PM (#3481920)
I have rule against engaging with anyone <strike>who's posted more than 2500 time at this forum</strike>.
Fixed that for ya.
   195. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: March 18, 2010 at 10:13 PM (#3481924)
Another moron. Alliteration isn't limited to names, bud.

I'm not sure I count as "another" moron; I've been sparring with you long enough to be delcared a moron several times already. Just for fun: the adjective form of the word you're using is "alliterative."

Gooden had a 98 ERA+ in 1990, but hey, he allowed the fewest HR's per inning!

If Guidry gets credit for leading the league in fewest walks per inning (which you cited in 146) in a year in which he goes 9-12, 103 ERA+, Gooden gets credit for leading the league in fewest HR/9 in a 19-7, 98 ERA+ year.
   196. Greg (U)K Posted: March 18, 2010 at 10:34 PM (#3481933)
I suppose it's probably futile to talk statistics with a guy who can't even count the number of post-season series. There were two post-season series, dude

Not to speak for him, but I'm assuming by "other 3 series" he meant the 77 WS, 78 ALCS, and 78 WS, in all of which Guidry made one start each.
   197. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 18, 2010 at 10:49 PM (#3481936)
It may not be safe to take #182's sincerity as a given. But if so, what J. Roberts is overlooking is that the 1978 ALCS began the day after the one-game Fenway/Dent playoff, and thus the Yankees couldn't be choosers about making the most of Guidry.

Of course, as with the great pennant race of 1983, Tommy is happy to include Guidry's 15-baserunner, ass-saved-by-Nettles performance in the '78 Series as one of the clutchiest clutches that has ever clutched.

So it's not context's finest day.
   198. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 10:49 PM (#3481937)
Not to speak for him, but I'm assuming by "other 3 series" he meant the 77 WS, 78 ALCS, and 78 WS, in all of which Guidry made one start each.

He pitched one game in the '77 WS because he started the last game of the ALCS on two days rest and therefore wasn't available early in the Series. He pitched brilliantly and won in the WS and would have started game 7 but there wasn't one. He wasn't available for the first two games of the '78 Series because he'd started the last game of the '78 ALCS, pitching brilliantly and clinching the Series. He wasn't available to pitch earlier in the '78 ALCS because he started and won the one-game playoff in Boston.

So he didn't pitch more often in those Series because he started the one-game Fenway playoff on short rest, started the last game of the ALCS on short rest, and pitched the last game of the '78 ALCS which made him unavailable for the first two games of the '78 Series unless he'd pitched on short rest again. And from this - all those short-rest starts and starts in the most critical games the Yankees played - this dimwit infers that the Yanks didn't want to pitch Guidry.

Unfortunately, this guy's reasoning is symptomatic of others in this forum. He takes incontrovertible evidence that contradicts his thesis and claims that it supports his thesis.

Pathetic.
   199. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: March 18, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3481939)
Nice to see you taking the high road here Tommy.
   200. Tommy in CT Posted: March 18, 2010 at 11:02 PM (#3481942)
Of course, as with the great pennant race of 1983, Tommy is happy to include Guidry's 15-baserunner, ass-saved-by-Nettles performance in the '78 Series as one of the clutchiest clutches that has ever clutched.


He made his last two starts of the '78 regular season on short rest, then started the one-game playoff in Boston on short rest, pitched 8 innings in the ALCS clincher, and then pitched game three of the '78 Series, which brought his season innings total to 290, after he'd never pitched more than 230 innings in a season and had never even been a starting pitcher until the year before. He starts game 3 of the '78 Series with the Yanks down 2-0, doesn't have his best stuff, allows 15 baserunners, makes 134 pitches, and still surrenders only 1 run! The Yanks win, it turns around the Series and the Yanks win it all.

Yes, it was in fact one of the guttiest performances of all time. But Gonfalon Booble would have you believe that Bob Gibson stunk because when he started game 7 of the '64 World Series on two days rest he gave up 5 runs! And he gave up a HR to some bum named Mantle! Boy, that Gibson really stunk, didn't he, Booble?

I've seen a lot of pitchers like Stieb and Blyleven who crapped their knickers every time they got in a tough spot. I give a pitcher who strands about a dozen runners in a World Series game and pitches a complete game, 1-run victory a lot of credit. You guys would, too, if you could get your lips off of Kevin Appier's immortal ass.
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