There’s a meme going around this year that the NL is starting to catch up on the AL, primarily because offense levels are so much higher in the NL this year, prompting claims that the NL has all the young hitting talent. That may be so, but color me unconvinced, and not just because the AL went 25-17 against the NL this weekend. I just don’t understand why we have to interpret the higher offensive levels in the NL this year as the product of good young hitting in the NL, as opposed to good young pitching in the AL. Scoring levels tell you nothing about the quality of play – an increase in scoring could be the result of better hitting, worse pitching, or both.
As I write this, a total of 22 pitchers have thrown 50 or more innings this season with a better-than-league average ERA (i.e. an ERA+ of over 100), and are no older than 25. Fifteen of them are in the American League. In descending order of ERA+, they are: Scott Kazmir, John Danks, Aaron Laffey, Felix Hernandez, Fausto Carmona, Gavin Floyd, Jon Lester, Zack Greinke, Ervin Santana, Chad Gaudin, Jesse Litsch, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Edwin Jackson, and Matt Garza. Only seven toil in the NL: Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Scott Olsen, John Lannan, Chad Billingsley, and Jair Jurrjens.
So can we dispense with this idea that the NL is making a comeback? The dregs of the American League just went to the home of the NL West leaders and won two out of three, outscoring the Diamondbacks 20 to 7. A month ago they played the Marlins on the road and won two out of three. An extended run against the NL could be just the tonic the Royals need to right the ship. Three games in St. Louis against the NL Wild Card leaders? Bring it on. Especially since that means Bannister and Greinke both get to swing the bat, and that’s always fun.
Repoz
Posted: June 16, 2008 at 07:56 AM |
26 comment(s)
Related News:
General,
Special Topics,
Kansas City
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Using his own amazing logic, could we not attribute this to crappier AL hitting? Wotta chump.
The dregs of the National League just went to the home of the AL Central leaders and won two out of three. Whoopee.
KC isn't as bad as the standings claim. KC should have like 34 wins already, but they've been plagued by a bad bullpen and bad managing.
Pujols hits .394/.472/.701 against KC (54 for 137) with 10 HRs. So he won't be missed.
The Royals are one good hitter away from breaking out.
Or maybe they just need to get Ross Gload out of the lineup, bring Butler back up, and find a better DH than Olivo.
K/PA is 1.7% higher in the AL
BB/PA is 7.8% higher in the NL
BABIP is 0.4% higher in the AL
HR/F is 19.4% higher in the NL
Non-HR XBH/F is 12.5% higher in the NL
Last year:
K/PA was 1.4% higher in the AL
BB/PA was 3.1% higher in the NL
BABIP was 0.4% higher in the AL
HR/F was 5.6% higher in the NL
Non-HR XBH/F was 0.005% higher in the AL
It remains to be seen whether park factors make up for it, but far and away the biggest difference between this year and last is that NL hitters' HR and 2B rates are way up, and this is very hard to pin on pitchers (Who show very little control over HR/F) or defense (BABIP between leagues is unchanged).
The offensive data indicates that the NL has very probably made up significant ground on the AL, even if it hasn't shown in interleague records yet.
Ok, Colorado gets blamed for all of that no matter what.
Seriously, the AL is 47-36 so far. Looking like more of the same.
Pujols couldn't have been carrying the rest of the Cards that much, right?
Add all that to Pujols and Wainwright on the DL and Yadier on the bench with a concussion, and this is the perfect time to be facing the Cardinals.
You would be surprised. Glaus and Ludwick are actual ML hitters, but the rest of the lineup? Slightly less so. The fact the Kennedy is outhitting the rest of the middle infield is very sad. Tony Pena Jr. sad.
Also, the Phillies are clearly better than the Cards, despite the records and the recent series, so the Cards are the 3d best team in the NL.
EDIT - Don't even get me started on the bullpen.
on checking.. good lord he sucks, and he didn't hit well in Memphis either. Guess having your dad as a coach helps out there.
"Jason LaRue is actually having a decent month"
How LaRue got work after his 2007 in KC is beyond me.
As for comparing people's hitting to TPJ, idk how bad they'd have to be to get compared to a guy with an OPS+ of Minus 2. Not 2. Minus 2.
He at least has an excuse in that he's been trying to play catchup since spring training due to surgery, which led to his hitting simply falling apart, but the organization really should have stood by the decision to let him work this out in Memphis. It's entirely conceivable that the Redbirds have better players than the Cardinals right now at half the positions on the diamond: CF (Rasmus), SS (Barden), LF (Mather, though he's apparently day to day), and catcher (Anderson). That's not even including 1B where Phelps is definitely playing better than Duncan, though he's not really the player that Duncan is.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main