I don't know why they couldn't've titled that movie "The Master Debaters". I don't know why, but it has a certain ring to it.

.300/.386/.508

That's his "floor". Bwahahaha.

He K'd nearly 1 per 3 AB in 2007. He hit 300 last year ... based on a 444 on-contact BA. That's simply unsustainable. His "floor" is Rob Deer. Drop that on-contact BA to a still very impressive Ruthian 400 and his overall BA drops to 270.

His career numbers (280/356/442) are probably a reasonable projection. He didn't K at nearly this rate in the majors nor in the minors when he was younger, so his true K-rate is probably 1 per 4 or so, most likely not as bad as 1 per 3. Hitting 400 on-contact is, shall we say, a wee bit unlikely so that will bring down the BA. Presumably he hasn't hit his power peak yet, so some more power wouldn't be at all surprising.

Oh yeah, the 300 hitter in the minors comment is a bit odd as well. He hit 296. My point isn't to nitpick that 296 isn't 300 but that 300 isn't 315-320. There's a big difference! (D'uh, about 15-20 points of BA). A translation on a 300 minor-league BA is gonna be something around 270 or so. That he "only" hit 296 in the minor is, if anything, an argument that his high BA last year was a fluke.

That he "only" hit 296 in the minor is, if anything, an argument that his high BA last year was a fluke.

Well ... the guy did hit .302 in the Sally League as an 18 year old, and .311 in AAA at 19/just turned 20. He's not your usual "only hit .296 in the minors."

Walt,

Upton's realistic floor is not Deer because he runs much better. His BABIP was .393 last year, which is high even for a hitter with good power and speed. It's about 20-30 points higher than normal, but I believe that some of that may be due to his home park.

Upton could very well go .260/.320/.430 in 2008 on the downside, or .320/.420/.580 on the upside. ZiPS has him at .278/.363/.452. That is probably a little low, but not too much.

Walt - BJ never struck out at nearly that rate sa a minor leaguer. While he won't sustain a .393 BABIP, he also won't continue to strike out that much either. Before last year, he had a career strikeout rate of 25.7% - in the majors! For all his time at AAA, he struck out only 23.8% of the time.

I think 280/360/450 is a pretty good guess for his performance next year. I know Mike E thinks he won't be able to sustain his HR rate and thus is more pessimistic. But even he wouldn't call him Rob Deer, I don't think.

They seem a bit confused as to how to compare CF to 2B. Fagan says CFs need more offense (not true in 2007 - .758 vs .757 OPS in 2007, though CF had a slight edge over the last couple of years), SanInocencio claim CFs are more important defensively. Those can't both be true, right?

Those can't both be true, right?

I don't like marginal arguments like this... I think the importance of 2b/SS compared to CF really depends on pitching staff makeup. If you have a groundball staff, then 2b/ss will be more important defensively; for a flyball staff, CF (and maybe even LF) become critically more important.

Upton's realistic floor is not Deer because he runs much better. [DELETED]
Upton could very well go .260/.320/.430

Well, of course I went for Deer for effect. But he wasn't that slow, he had some steals and triples you know. I think he played some CF.

And, you realize, that Deer's career numbers are 220/320/440? Yes, more power and less BA but those look suspiciously similar to your downside Upton projection. :-)

BJ never struck out at nearly that rate sa a minor leaguer. While he won't sustain a .393 BABIP, he also won't continue to strike out that much either. Before last year, he had a career strikeout rate of 25.7% - in the majors! For all his time at AAA, he struck out only 23.8% of the time.

I think 280/360/450 is a pretty good guess for his performance next year

You might want to read the last paragraph of #2. :-)

Fagan says CFs need more offense (not true in 2007 - .758 vs .757 OPS in 2007, though CF had a slight edge over the last couple of years), SanInocencio claim CFs are more important defensively. Those can't both be true, right?

Sure they can. The notion that the offensive and defensive values of positions "balance" is hardly ironclad. (At least I assume that's the logic behind your skepticism)

More relevantly, a lot of the offensive difference between positions is explained by the fact that LH throwers (who are much more likely to be LH batters) can't play C/2B/SS/3B.

I once played around with the notion of "what if all positions had to throw RH." Of course, in such a real world, this would just mean that all kids would learn to throw that way growing up. But in this fantasy world, I removed all PA by LH throwers and replaced with replacement level RH throwers (which is probably too much of a penalty).

I can't vouch for my memory, but I believe it erased almost all the difference between 3B vs. 1B/LF/RF. CFs did much worse than 2B ... if memory serves nearly as bad as C/SS ... which would suggest it is a more important defensive position than 2B.

But the basic point is, for CF, you're drawing from a wider pool of talent -- both RH and LH throwers. So finding guys who are defensively better (in some "hand-neutral" sense) than 2B but also hit (a little) better than 2B is quite possible.

Or to put it another way ... Bonds, Griffey, Edmonds, Rickey etc. probably had the skill to play SS when younger (high school, college) and might have been able to stick there or might been shifted to 2B or 3B if they couldn't. Instead, they started in CF because it was the most defensively important position they could play. (I'm assuming Rickey played CF in the minors)

"And, you realize, that Deer's career numbers are 220/320/440? Yes, more power and less BA but those look suspiciously similar to your downside Upton projection. :-)"

It wasn't the 2008 projection, Walt, that I was really fussing about. It was the long-term implications of Deer's 'old player skills' and Upton's more balanced set, regardless whether Upton is above or below his 50th percentile projection in 2008. Of course, you're right that .308/.386/.508 is a long, long way from Upton's floor, either in 2008 or in the medium term.

OK, can't disagree with #10. But yeah all I meant was that in a bad year, Upton might well post some Deer-like numbers. Also, to be honest, I'd been thinking Deer had a few 250-260 seasons when he was younger but nope.

Before anyone gets too carried away, obviously Upton has more talent than Rob Deer. Obviously he has a lot of talent, at least as a hitter. But in my mind, he's still uncertain enough that if he can't handle CF or an IF position defensively, then he's likely gonna be nothing special in a corner and there's a real risk that he's gonna be below-average.

But yeah, he could turn into Soriano or even Sosa but Juan Samuel seems a very real possibility as well. Again, Soriano/Sosa/Samuel in terms of overall production not necessarily the shape of that production.