Thus completely justifying the Zambrano trade.

If you were Kazmir, wouldn't you wait at least another year to see if the Rays will improve and then consider a deal?

If they trade him before his last arb eligible year, they are a complete joke.

At least make an effort to sign him long term. If not, try and be competitive while you still have him.

If you were Kazmir, wouldn't you wait at least another year to see if the Rays will improve and then consider a deal?

If I were Kazmir, only having made league minimum in my career so far, and knowing how often arms blow out, I'd sign a deal ASAP. Nothing too long. He's 24 this month. Maybe a 4 year deal. Say 4/35, figuing arb years at $6M, and $8M, and two FA years at $10M.

That way, he's set for life financially, if he does get hurt; and he has injury history. If he does put it all together, he's a FA at 28, prime time to cash in on a 6-7 year extravaganza.

I love the Yankee fan who posts in the comments that "The Yankees have some excellent minor league talent that will help the Rays long term. You could probably get Two of those guys for Kazmir. Sanchez and Olendorph comes to mind... I'd make that move and not look back."

Yeah, right.

Snapper, Kazmir is eligible for arbitration this year for the first time. So any deal would cover (and guarantee) three years of arbitration before the first free agency year. I wonder what the Rays are offering?

Kazmir is one of the best pitchers in the league. I know his averages are fairly pedestrian (if you can call top-ten in the league "pedestrian"), but that is the result of a .337 BABIP this year. Either he's throwing an incredible number of meatballs (a possibility belied by his low home-run rate) or the D'Rays defense last year was complete swiss cheese. Knock 20 points off that and you have what? Sabathia? Santana? Bedard? I'm not up on the arbitration market, but your numbers seem low to me. Certainly his free-agency year should be valued around ~$20M. Maybe $40M/4, buying out one year of free agency? Still a huge bargain for the Rays.

Probably best for him to pitch through 2008 on an arbitration contract (or a one-year deal), with a greatly improved defense behind him, and re-evaluate after that. The Rays aren't going to release him even if he blows out his elbow -- so he'll have plenty of time to rehab on their dollar and still have a chance to show he's healthy before hitting free agency. Worst case, he retires with close to $10M of lifetime earnings from his initial signing bonus, three years of ML minimum, one year of free agency award. He **MIGHT** be able to feed his kids on that.

Adam, a "fair" price for Kazmir would be Buchholz/Lester or Hughes/Chamberlain. Something along those lines. He is young, dominant, cheap, basically healthy, and under team control for three years. I think the Rays have a better chance of contending if they keep Kazmir, however.

Hughes AND Chamberlain? Buch AND Lester?

You know that neither team would do that for Santana, right? Now there are definite cost issues there, but by every measurable statistic, Santana is more of a valuable asset to a team that ain't hurtin' for the green in the short term.

Valentine,

I agree that the Rays have some chance of contending in 2009 or 2010 especially if the front office spend some money. IMO they would need to get back a lot more than the A's did for Haren to consider trading Kazmir, which is what made me laugh at the comment I quoted. That said, I think I'd probably take either Buchholz and Lester or Hughes and Chamberlain for Kazmir if I was the Rays. It is going to be tough for them to compete with the Yankees or Red Sox over the next three years even with Kazmir.

From BPro, he was 16 runs above average in 2007; that is not adjusted for the Rays pathetic D. Adjusted for D, assuming a league average defense, they have him at 24 pitching runs above average.

Using Tango's salary chart, that is worth about $15.4M-$19.8M a year. Assuming that he maintains his performance level, and if he gets 40% of that in his first arb year, 60% of that in his 2nd arb year, 80% of that in his 3rd arb year, that is a total of $27.72M-$36.96M for his arb years.

If he signs a 4 year deal for 4 / 35, buying out his arb years and first FA year, he would be leaving between $10M-20M on the table. That sounds fair for the security of getting the money now.

You know that neither team would do that for Santana, right?

Kazmir is (IMHO, looking ahead at the next seven years) likely to be both better and cheaper than Santana. Snapper was suggesting $35M/4yrs which I think is a little low. But he would definitely jump at $100M/7yrs, no? To me that combination of dominance and value is worth an extra premier prospect.

My only concern would be his health, but then I don't see Santana as a "green light" health risk either.

Adam, a "fair" price for Kazmir would be Buchholz/Lester or Hughes/Chamberlain.

Only if Tampa Bay has no interest in trading Kazmir. However, if the Rays are looking to move him before they have to make a big payday, then a "fair" price would be one of those guys and a few second-tier prospects.

If Tampa Bay is looking to trade Kazmir, then a deal will be made without much difficulty -- the amount teams would likely be willing to give up for him will probably be more than Tampa Bay is likely to demand in return. Hopefully they won't be so eager to deal that they'll take the first "acceptable" deal, they'll hold out for more (and get it).

kazmir has more trade value than Santana, for the same reasons that Bedard has about as much.

edit: Which is not to say that he's necessarily worth Bucholz/Lester or Hughes/Chamberlain.

This is the challenge of the build through prospects model. Kazmir is a top pitcher now and about to get expensive now while, other than Crawford, the Rays other top prospects are still too young and inexperienced to know for sure who's going to work out and who isn't. In other words, the timing's off. It's quite possible that they sign Kazmir for, say, 4 years. But they're not going to compete this year or probably next. By 2010, Crawford's probably gone (or quite expensive) and their other young players have either not panned out or are starting to get expensive.

That is, in 2010, they could be in one of these scenarios. Crawford has left, Kazmir's still a stud and signed through 2011, Upton (say) has worked out (and is due a big raise) but the rest of their prospects haven't become stars. That's still not enough talent to compete, Kazmir's not going to want to stay around after 2011 and essentially they're in the same spot they are today with Kazmir in the Crawford role, Upton in the Kazmir role, and they're looking at not really being competitive until 2013-2014. In that case, they'll be under pressure to trade Kazmir before he leaves.

The other scenario is that Kazmir's still a stud, Upton, Longoria and others have mostly worked out and the Rays are looking at a competitive window of maybe 2011-2014. But that's becoming an expensive team and still one that needs some FA talent to compete with the Sox/Yanks (probably) and will Tampa have the money to make that push? If they can't/won't answer yes to that ... Note, that would still be an inexpensive team so it certainly should be doable.

There are obviously other scenarios (including Kazmir gets hurt or flames out). But with Dukes and Young now gone, the Rays ca. 2010-2011 no longer look nearly as promising as they did. I'm far from sure that we're going to see the next (i.e. first) good Rays team by 2011 which brings up the eternal question of "is Kazmir likely to be part of the next good Rays team?" If he's not and you can get fantastic return on him now or next year, you have to seriously consider it.

There are other obvious issues around credibility with fans, the push for a new stadium, etc. which point towards positive financial benefits of investing in Kazmir long-term and those may well be more than strong enough to mitigate the risks outlined above.

I think the Rays should absolutely, without a second thought, lock up Kazmir for a long time. They're not going to find another pitcher like him anytime soon, and if they do then they'd have a hell of a rotation.

If the team doesn't become competitive, they won't have trouble moving Kazmir even if they're paying him $20 million a year (unless he gets hurt).

From the DT cards, "Translated Pitching Statistics":

Kazmir 7.9 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 9.8 K/9
Santana 6.9 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 9.0 K/9

Kazmir's 2006 and 2007 lines are almost identical, so I think we can safely call this his "established level of ability". Santana has been very consistent from 2005-2007 except for his home run rate which spiked from 0.8 to 1.2 this year. Ignoring the difference in HR/9 for a moment, Santana has better control but Kazmir strikes out more. The biggest difference between the two is in their H/9, and THAT is clearly a function of BABIP. I suspect that if you were to swap their defensive support you would also swap their H/9.

Looking ahead, I think Kazmir has room for improvement. His walk rate, in particular, might come down with experience (and if he is less afraid of the defense behind him). He's only 23 -- I know pitchers peak young, but control often takes a while to perfect. Santana, on the other hand, is near (or past?) the end of his peak. Maybe he can sustain some approximation of his current production over the next five seasons, but there have been many very good pitchers who lost something off their fastballs in their early thirties. I'm not QUITE willing to dismiss that jump in HRs as a fluke, and I'm worried that it might be a sign of impending physical problems. There are rumors that he was struggling with his slider at times last year.

In short, I think they are very close in current performance (once you factor out the defense). I expect Kazmir to beat these averages over the next five years and I expect Santana to decline at least a little. I may be exaggerating a little, or overstating the BABIP impact, but I would definitely prefer Kazmir to Santana looking forward.

Certainly his free-agency year should be valued around ~$20M. Maybe $40M/4, buying out one year of free agency? Still a huge bargain for the Rays.

Probably best for him to pitch through 2008 on an arbitration contract (or a one-year deal), with a greatly improved defense behind him, and re-evaluate after that. The Rays aren't going to release him even if he blows out his elbow -- so he'll have plenty of time to rehab on their dollar and still have a chance to show he's healthy before hitting free agency. Worst case, he retires with close to $10M of lifetime earnings from his initial signing bonus, three years of ML minimum, one year of free agency award. He **MIGHT** be able to feed his kids on that.

Well, someone asked if I were Kazmir what would I do. Given how young athletes tend to spend, I'd imagine his signing bonus and salary have all been spent. Not hard to do after taxes.

If he's got 3 years to free agency, that's a substantial amount of risk. Both injury risk, and the risk he doesn't reach his potential.

The least advantageous contract he might sign now is enough that he never needs to work another day in his life, AND, he gets to live the high life, for ever.

I think that certainty is worth quite a lot.

I also don't think the arb numbers are as good for the players as you think. Looking at 2007, Bedard (2nd year) settled for $3.4 M (ask $4.4M, offer $2.7M), Harang (2nd year) wasking asking $5.5M, offered $4.25M before signing long term. C Zambrano signed for $12.4M for one year (ask $15.5M, offer $11.0M).

So, even if we say $15M 3rd year, $6M 2nd year, and $3M 1st year for arb, and $20M for the 1st year of FA, that's $44M total.
Now, that's pretty much assuming no major injury, and good performance. To get the guarantee, I think accepting 4/35 would be quite fair.

By 2010, Crawford's probably gone (or quite expensive)

According to Cot's Contracts, they have a $10M team option on Crawford. He'll be expensive in 2011, however.

Good points, snapper. Thanks for the detailed reply.

i think the rays will finish 3rd in the AL Beast this year, and contend in 2009. they have a strong everyday lineup, some top-notch prospects ready to play, a very strong 1-2-3 in the rotation. i'm not crazy about the bullpen and the manager, but the team looks pretty good.

This is why I don't agree with the "Devil Rays in 2010" bandwagon. They've been saying their talent is going to payoff for years...but when you count the attrition rate for prospects, and the fact that some may leave before all good players are there at once, it's hard to see them becoming "much better than the Red Sox and Yankees", let alone a mid-80's win team.

They're not going to <strike>find</strike> steal from the utterly clueless, another pitcher like him anytime soon, and if they do then they'd have a hell of a rotation.

I was too young to remember the Seaver deal, so this one will haunt me forever, no matter how many threads and jokes in them are mentioned it still doesn't take any of the burn off and I get angrier with every mention of his name. I mean exactly what we covet so greatly this offseason we gave away for pennies on the dollar in 04. How incredible would our home grown core look with Kazmir in fold? Would we have won the Series in 06? Not collapsed last year?

Current Mets ownership should never be allowed to forget this and should be asked everyday from their never ending media glare where do you think you would be today had you not given away Scott Kazmir.

I still remember where I was(playing 2-5 lim hold em in a local casino when I saw the bottom line go by on ESPN) and I was warned about yelling like I did when I saw it, nooooooooooooooooooooo.

How I loathe you Jim Duquette.

Steve it's a Trachsel...most teams have given up great players for nothing.

As for why I don't think they'll finish 3rd next year, (from my blog on the Young-Garza trade):

The Rays had an overloaded outfield, a bad pitching staff, and the league’s worst defense. The defense is helped by Jason Bartlett at shortstop, and the rotation is much deeper now: Kazmir, Garza, Shields, Sonnanstine, Niemann, Jackson, and Hammel. I still don’t see the Devil Rays competing next year. They lost 96 games, and the bullpen is still awful, even though it is fronted by Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler, and now Troy Percival. Their offense is not as strong as it looks: you can't rely on Baldelli because of injuries. B.J. Upton may regress offensively due to his ridiculous .393 BABIP, showing that he was getting lucky with hits, and whopping 154 strikeouts. However, he's still a good hitter, as his power, stolen bases, and walks were all good. Carlos Pena may be good next year, but not as good as his career year in 2007. As well, Bartlett, Josh Wilson (2b), and Dioner Navarro [C] don’t have great bats. Considering the long-term upside of Delmon Young, I would say that the Twins have the slight edge in this trade.

(wrote this before Wilson was released, and Longoria named possible 3b starter)

Good points, snapper. Thanks for the detailed reply.

No problem. The key point is TB needs to step up NOW.

Steve it's a Trachsel...most teams have given up great players for nothing.

But very few rich teams seeking to contend have done it quite so stupidly and obviously, such that the entire fan base knew it was a hopelessly bone-headed move at the time.

It makes me grateful that I kept my homegrown allegiance to the San Diego Chargers(something I never thought I would say). Of course the reason is my late grandfather, who raised me on the Mets, forever hated the Jets for moving to the Meadowlands. He could no longer qualify them as a NY team, so he actually spared me. I'll always believe it was just because the drive from LI was so much more convient.

I'm grateful to have a GM like AJ Smith and the late great John Butler before him that were able to build a playoff caliber team almost entirely through the draft, now I just hope we can get that elusive SB championship(how about a playoff win) before LT's window closes.

My apologies for the football/Mets hijack(you have to expect this one in any Kazmir thread). I found it interesting the value of Kazmir vs Santana in the posts above and attempted to blunt my anger.

What Srul said......Happy New Year to all Primates!

Come home to Houston, Mr. Kazmir. Name your price.

Kazmir can't name his price for 3 more years. Pence + letting the Rays rape your farm system is the real price.

letting the Rays rape your farm system is the real price

Oh I am sure the Stros will accept that heavy price. They will give anyone the Rays ask for in their farm !!