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Friday, July 03, 2009

Redleg Nation: Thinking about Dusty Baker

Diane, LaVern, Josephine...hell, even Ginger. But Dusty?

For example, I posted the numbers in last night’s game thread that Taveras had led off 16 games where he has failed to get on base even a single time.

The Reds are not only 3-13 in those games, but 5 of those 13 losses are by 2 runs or less. Sure, 3 of those 13 losses were blowouts, so it probably doesn’t matter if we had Bonds leading off, but the Reds could VERY reasonably be in 5-10 more games this year with one SIMPLE SIMPLE change. That’s a potentially HUGE impact.

Think about it, it’s a pretty crazy stat. All you need is 2-3 more runs over those games, which should be SUPER easy because we are talking about replacing 0 (or even NEGATIVE) production.

The Reds have been among the worst teams in baseball for a handful of years now. But a lot of the time, it has been because of a bad GM signing bad players — in particular pitchers — and the Reds manager not having much choice. In this case, Dusty has options…the fault falls squarely on him (not on Willy).

Is this the single worst thing a recent manager has done to hurt the Reds chances of winning?

Repoz Posted: July 03, 2009 at 11:57 AM | 14 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralCincinnati

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Nothing Iffey About Griffey  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 11:50 AM (#3241395)
Taveras blows, Dusty sucks. Thank the Lord for Joey Votto!
   2. I Remember When  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 03:08 PM (#3241512)
At least Willy isn't clogging up the base paths.
   3. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris?  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 03:21 PM (#3241528)
Are Reds fans ready for the GMJ era to begin?

Probably not, but hopefully your GM feels differently.
   4. Tripon  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 03:25 PM (#3241529)
Reds are going to trade for Gary Matthews Jr.?
   5. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris?  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 03:28 PM (#3241531)
Quiet- I'm in the middle of a special prayer.

EDIT- I did hear a little bit of a rumor to that effect but I'm mostly wishcasting. I do see that the Reds appear to need a center fielder and a shortstop- an Angels/Reds deal might make a lot of sense. At least for the Angels that is.
   6. Tripon  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 03:33 PM (#3241533)
There's more a chance the Reds trading for Brandon Wood than Gary Matthews Jr.
   7. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris?  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 03:39 PM (#3241537)
I would disagree with you there, Wood isn't going anywhere near Cincinnati unless the Reds really want to see Votto in an Angels uniform. I'm guessing that's not the case.

GMJ might make sense to try if he came for free or if he came with a lousy contract going the other way. I don't follow the Reds closely enough to know if they're looking to dump (I think Arroyo fits that bill) but I wouldn't rule it out- particularly if Dusty has some input. It could even happen with a third team in the mix dumping a lousy deal on the Angels.

Like I said, I'm mostly wishcasting but I see GMJ going somewhere this year, even with the lousy contract and no-trade clause.
   8. Walt Davis  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 04:41 PM (#3241598)
But a lot of the time, it has been because of a bad GM signing bad players

You mean like signing Willy Taveras to a 2-year/$6.5 M contract?

And it doesn't look to me like Dusty has all that many options. He has been giving Dickerson (a 389 OBP!) about half the CF starts lately and batting him leadoff (although still putting Taveras #1 in games they both started). But putting Dickerson in CF is benching Taveras -- a good idea but one caused by him being a bad player. The author seems to think it would be OK if Taveras was just moved down the lineup. But other than Dickerson, who should hit leadoff? Hairston (302 OBP, the main #2 hitter, probably as big a problem as Taveras), Nix (301), Bruce (295), Rosales (286)?

The problem is precisely the one identified -- the Reds have a lot of bad hitters on this team. Fair enough, Dusty might be able to do a better job of optimizing the batting order -- still, Dickerson full-time in place of some combination of Taveras/Nix seems the only obvious improvement and that's not "optimizing the batting order", that's benching crappy players.
   9. SouthSideRyan  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 04:54 PM (#3241606)
Look Taveras is a fast CF, where else would you bat him?
   10. Walt Davis  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 04:54 PM (#3241607)
Wood isn't going anywhere near Cincinnati unless the Reds really want to see Votto in an Angels uniform.

que? What makes you think the Angels are high on Wood?

Wood is already 24. The Angels had him up earlier and gave him no playing time. They recently called up Rodriguez over Wood and have already given Rodriguez more playing time than they did Wood (and Rodriguez has stunk). Izturis and Aybar (and Matthews and Quinlan) continue to get playing time. I would think Kendrick (hitting well at AAA) is still in front of him. Nobody seems to think he can stick at SS. I see zero evidence that the Angles hold Wood in particularly high regard.

Which is too bad. Wood is finally having a nice season -- the K-rate is down to nearly 1 per 5 AB. He deserves a legit shot in the majors with somebody -- but it really doesn't look like it will be with the Angels.

But Cincy isn't the right spot, unless Encarnacion is finished.
   11. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris?  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 05:46 PM (#3241642)
Rodriguez has stunk

Rodriguez has 19 plate appearances over the course of a month. That is the most hilarious Angel commentary on this site since someone argued that Juan Rivera was Matt Murton.

Nobody seems to think he can stick at SS.

I don't believe anyone affiliated with the Angels has ever said anything like this. I don't believe anyone affiliated with the Angels has ever said anything that even implicates this concern. Wood is a solid shortstop- the fact that he's not as good defensively as Aybar will keep him from playing there unless Aybar's traded- but that has absolutely no reflection on Wood's abilities. Scoiscia has said repeatedly that he would be comfortable using him there and he continues to play there in AAA- even if he takes ABs at third (where he'll play next year after Figgins moves on) and first (where he might end up platooning with Morales this year.)

I think the Angels are high on Wood because they continue to say they are high on Wood. His failure to start this year is based on the fact that the team wants Figgins in the lineup every day (I'm not sure I agree, particularly against lefties,) doesn't want to punt on Aybar and lose his defensive abilities (I agree), and isn't really in need of another right-handed bat (I totally agree.)

In any case, absent a trade of Aybar, Wood is slated to be the Angels starting third baseman next season- and if he plays well, for many years to come. He may be traded because that can happen to all players- but it won't be because the Angels don't think he's going to become a good player. That said, Wood's performance (particularly his OBP) away from altitude remains disappointing- some more minor league time is definitely to his advantage.
   12. Walt Davis  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 07:23 PM (#3241769)
Rodriguez has 19 plate appearances over the course of a month. That is the most hilarious Angel commentary on this site since someone argued that Juan Rivera was Matt Murton.

Dude, it's a semi-joke. The Angels like Wood so much they gave him a whopping 9 AB during his call-up -- and he did fine in those whopping 9 AB. They've given more time to Rodriguez even though he hasn't hit in his whopping 19 AB. The point -- the empirical evidence is that the Angels like Wood even less than Rodriguez ... who they pretty clearly don't think much of at the moment.

If they see Wood as next year's starting 3B and they think he's an adequate SS, he'd have been called up to start in Kendrick's place. Alternatively, they see Wood as next year's starting 3B but passed up both their opportunities to give him significant ML playing time this year which means they don't know what they're doing and are likely to screw this up anyway.

The Angels' actions (regardless of their words) say they don't think that highly of Wood and don't consider him MLB-ready at the moment.

As to Rivera (2009):

vs RHP: 278/306/434 (Murton without the OBP)
vs LHP: 407/478/814 (vs 295/337/515 career -- Matt Murton without the OBP)

Which one of those splits do you think is more likely to regress?
   13. Tripon  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 07:26 PM (#3241772)
How can you not like a guy named Richard Brandon Wood?
   14. GregD  Posted: July 03, 2009 at 08:08 PM (#3241794)
Dusty Baker deserves lots of blame as a manager, but this is a pretty ridiculous critique. Leaving aside the question of alternatives, there's also the bizarre reasoning behind the projected improvement by replacing Taveras.

The Reds are not only 3-13 in those games, but 5 of those 13 losses are by 2 runs or less. Sure, 3 of those 13 losses were blowouts, so it probably doesn’t matter if we had Bonds leading off, but the Reds could VERY reasonably be in 5-10 more games this year with one SIMPLE SIMPLE change. That’s a potentially HUGE impact.

Think about it, it’s a pretty crazy stat. All you need is 2-3 more runs over those games, which should be SUPER easy because we are talking about replacing 0 (or even NEGATIVE) production.



What makes that remarkable is that it is arguing a simple proposition to defend: Taveras should not lead off. My potted plant can make that case.

But in making that case, he:
1) cherrypicks in awesome fashion
2) presumes magically that the new lead-off hitter would get on base in the very games that Taveras didn't without failing to get on base in any key game where Taveras did
3) imagining that one additional baserunner will add 2-3 runs per game and generate wins ("be in 5-10 additional games")
4) therefore calling it one of the worst managerial decisions ever made.

Dusty is a pro at bad decisions. As for batting Taveras leadoff? Eh, Dusty has crapped bigger ones, likely this morning.
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