With the rumored Schilling injury, might the Red Sox get in on talks with Oakland? Billy Beane supposedly loves Crisp.

Would the Reds be more or less likely to part with a top prospect for Blanton, as compared to Bedard? A lesser pitcher, but under their control for an extra year...

I have Votto in my NL only league, and I'm hoping he's not the one going to OAK. Given OAK's depth at 1b/dh, probably not. Bruce is definitely off limits, but one of Bailey or Cueto would be in play. Oh, I also have Todd Frazier on my bench. Drafted him while he was still in college. Local kid.

I've avoided much of the hype around Bailey, but would the Reds really give him up for Blanton? And for God's sakes, why?

Because they are the Reds?

I was hoping the Reds would be a bigger player for Bedard even with Bruce off the table.

I am dead to these rumors and trades now. Just poke me with a stick on Opening Day and I'll root for whoever the hell Billy is trotting out there in green and gold. I will add, though, that Blanton is a damn valuable pitcher.

I don't know much about prospects or Blanton so forgive me if I undervalue someone, but since the Reds system is so deep and Blanton seems to be not that special, is it possible the Reds get him for a package like Frazier and Lotzkar or something? How many of their second tier guys would it cost to get a guy like Blanton?

The Reds should give up Bailey for Blanton in a second. That's a no-brainer.

"...is it possible the Reds get him for a package like Frazier and Lotzkar or something?"

I would be very, very surprised.

The Reds should give up Bailey for Blanton in a second. That's a no-brainer.

I don't understand that, why should Bailey for Blanton be no-brainer? Blanton's contract? Or do you not like Bailey?

As 2007 draftees, Frazier and Lotzkar can't be traded from the Cincinnati organization until June, correct?

Correct, but you can get around that with PTBNLs.

I wouldn't be shocked if this ends with Joey Votto in an A's uniform. Votto has struck out 110-120 times a year in the minors, and we all know what Rivsy thinks about strikeouts. Beane may well be thinking the same thing and targeting Votto.

How many 1bmen do the A's need?

Why Blanton isn't viewed as one of the top...oh, 30 or 45 pitchers in the MLB is beyond me.

I don't understand that, why should Bailey for Blanton be no-brainer? Blanton's contract? Or do you not like Bailey?

Bailey is vastly overrated.

I agree that Bailey is overrated due to control problems but that's the easiest issue for a pitcher to overcome. I'd rather have Cueto myself. Frazier is an infield prospect right? That could definitely work if he is.

Votto appears to have some speed. Could he play LF?

The Reds appear to be a bit behind the Cubs and Brewers and their starting rotation could use some shoring up, but you'd think they'd be after a true impact pitcher. Especially since Blanton gives up a lot of flyballs and that's not going to play well in that ballpark, especially with some questionable outfield defense.

They tried Votto in LF but weren't crazy about the results. I've been worried that the organization undervalues Votto based on some comments last year, but he had a very nice September call-up and I think they'll give him the starting job at 1B this year. We'll see what Dusty thinks. Agree that Blanton is a poor fit for the park and defensive situation in Cincy.

I sense that this could work out very badly for the Reds. Given what Beane was reportedly requesting from the Mets in exchange for Blanton, I doubt that this gets done without one of Bailey, Votto or Cueto included in the deal (assuming even the Reds aren't dumb enough to trade Bruce for Blanton). It appears that Blanton took a step forward last season and he will certainly give you innings, but if you get the Blanton from 2006 as opposed to the Blanton from 2007, those innings aren't all that valuable.

IIRC, draftees cannot be traded till one year after they signed.
OTOH, a player to be named later can be postponed 6 months.
Therefore, a team could trade an "unnamed" draftee for Blanton today, February 7, if that draftee signed on or before August 7.

Anything that gets Blanton out the AL West and away from the M's sounds good.

Could the A's be looking for Encarnacion here with something else? He would be someone who could be undervalued by the Reds (don't know if that's true or not, but possible) and could improve a bunch this year. I know they have Chavez, but isn't it just a matter of time before he gets traded?

I had also heard that the Dodgers were interested in Blanton, but that hasn't been confirmed anywhere.

Encarnacion is an interesting idea.

I keep hearing Encarnacion's name come up in trade talks. Is it because of the hustle issues? Do the Reds have a ready replacement?

Votto to the A's doesn't make much sense from the A's perspective since they already have two 1bs (or even 3 with Cust). Bruce isn't being traded. So that leaves Bailey or Cueto, or something else like Encarnacion plus. Beane has been on a pitcher kick, so he's likely looking for something like Cueto plus. The Reds have not been enamoured with Encarnacion's work ethic or something, so he is likely available in the right deal. They could even expand it to include Chavez going to the Reds. They could also be interested in someone like Bray, who has good stuff but hasn't produced for the reds and is likely less valuable to them now that Cordero is on the team.

I keep hearing Encarnacion's name come up in trade talks. Is it because of the hustle issues? Do the Reds have a ready replacement?

Not major league ready, but The Frazier will eventually be their 3B barring a trade.

The Reds are set with Encarnacion at 3B for the next couple of years. There was an isolated lack-of-hustle incident in May that cost him a trip to Louisville (that, and he hadn't been hitting early on). He played much better after coming back up. And most comments about him from the FO, coaches, etc. indicate that he works hard on his defense, which is improving but remains a weakness.

Kevin Hart of FNS is reporting the deal is done: Joe Blanton, Dan Johnson and $1.5 million for Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto.... Seems like a win-win.

How does Daniel Cabrera's trade value compare to Blanton? Superficially, this isn't close - Blanton was a lot better last year, and the home parks help exaggerate that difference further when you compare ERAs (5.55 vs 3.95).

There are some similarities, though.

Both are 27 and three years away from free agency.

PECOTA likes them about the same for next year (4.48 eqERA for Blanton, 4.44 eqERA for Cabrera) and long term (113.8 upside for Blanton, 105.7 upside for Cabrera).

Is there any team out there that likes Cabrera's potential enough to give up a good prospect and some filler for him?

Kevin Hart, what a newsman. Gets the trade scoop even before the trade participants!

Freel could play third if needed as could Keppinger. EE is a definite possibility. The one thing in his favor is that Dusty regards himself as something of a master at getting players of color to max out under his guidance. If you set aside the Corey Patterson nonsense there is something to this belief.

But I suspect Billy wants someone he can financially control longer than Edward. So younger players seem more likely.

Votto is first base or bust. And with Hatteberg and Dunn likely to leave after the season I don't know who the Reds have in mind for the position.

Barring Junior making the move. Which would be sensible. But sensible really hasn't been the Reds trademark since Jack left.

Jay Bruce?! That boy can play. As in really.

I don't see that as a fair deal given that I think Bruce is the best Reds OF prospect since Eric Davis.

Joe Blanton, Dan Johnson and $1.5 million for Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto....

If this is true, I wouldn't mind bailing out any Reds fan who assaults Krivsky

###### A if that trade is for real.

That can't be real. Krivsky's not that stupid.

Wow...Hart's second big scoop of the week.

Both are 27 and three years away from free agency.

PECOTA likes them about the same for next year (4.48 eqERA for Blanton, 4.44 eqERA for Cabrera) and long term (113.8 upside for Blanton, 105.7 upside for Cabrera).

Their age and service time is irrelevant because their perfomance histories have been quite different. Blanton has been good, Cabrera has been below average.

Is there any team out there that likes Cabrera's potential enough to give up a good prospect and some filler for him?

Hell no.

###### A if that trade is for real.

Don't worry it's not. The Reds wouldn't give up Bruce for Bedard. I don't see them doing that Blanton.

You people don't click links, do you? You should. It would help you avoid getting punked again in the future.

Well Justin, when I clicked my browser just spooled.

I take it Rich made a funny?

What's a Johnny Cueto?

Also, if the A's are really going to trade Blanton too, to anyone, this off-season, then wow. Where's their starting pitching, or even a semblance of it, even two years from now?

Maybe the new market inefficiency is whatever enabled the Nationals to have a team ERA under 5 last season.

I take it Rich made a funny?

Rich being Rich.

For those who haven't had the pleasure of watching Blanton pitch, he pitches VERY QUICKLY, which is very nice. If there were two Blantons opposing one another, the game would last 90 minutes. Anyhow, the A's might as well trade him too. Sigh.

Maybe the new market inefficiency is whatever enabled the Nationals to have a team ERA under 5 last season.

If you're not going to contend, why bother keeping someone with good trade value? Plus, moving up to a better position in the draft doesn't hurt, either. If you're going to rebuild, no reason to half-ass it.

here's their starting pitching, or even a semblance of it, even two years from now?

I assume the plan would be for it to be Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, Trevor Cahill, James Simmons, and Robot Rich Harden, with Brett Anderson waiting in the wings.

Pending TINSTAAP, of course.

Rich being Rich.

For those of you not in the know, Kevin Hart is the football "star" from Fernley, Nevada who "chose" Cal over Oregon at a large press conference at his high school a few days ago. FNS is the "Fernely News Service."

If there were two Blantons opposing one another, the game would last 90 minutes.

That would happen if he is on the Reds and Jon Lieber is pitching for the Cubs. They are both overweight hicks, too. A real old-school matchup.

Kevin Hart of FNS is reporting the deal is done: Joe Blanton, Dan Johnson and $1.5 million for Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto.... Seems like a win-win.

Don't tease me, Rifkin.

I hovered over the link, saw it was to foxsports.com, and thought he was linking to something legitimate without a second thought. I frantically tried to find my phone so I could celebrate with my friend, but then came back to make sure and click on the link.


Thanks for helping me find my phone, though, Rich. ;-)

Their age and service time is irrelevant because their perfomance histories have been quite different. Blanton has been good, Cabrera has been below average.

I don't think the comparison is crazy. Blanton has been better, no question, but he's also benefited from his defense and home park, and he's at his ceiling. Cabrera has a ton of upside of course. Plus, while he was mediocre in 2007, prior to that he was basically a league average starter.

There were rumors earlier in the offseason that some team was offering a good position prospect for him, so my guess is he still has a decent amount of value.

I wonder if the A's might not be looking at Keppinger. He seems to be able to play 3rd, ss and 2b, making him a good option given the A's history of health problems in the left side of the infield. Would Cueto and Keppinger be too much to ask?

I don't think the comparison is crazy.

I wouldn't say crazy either... crazy would be like comparing Blanton to Brian Burres. Blanton has been clearly better. Cabrera's best seasons were two slightly below average performances of 96 ERA+. Blanton posted an ERA+ of 123 and 106 in 2005 and 2007. And yes, Cabrera has upside, but I'm doubtful he'll ever realize it.

There were rumors earlier in the offseason that some team was offering a good position prospect for him, so my guess is he still has a decent amount of value.

Yeah, I remember hearing that OH. If that was true, MacPhail is crazy. Of course, OH was reporting rumors that the O's were negotiating with teams about potential trades for Jay Payton and Kevin Millar. Rumors are like arseholes. I seriously doubt that any team has offered a good, young prospect for him.

Keppinger? The guy who was traded for this guy one year ago, by a team with no other middle infield prospects?

I think he's had his career season, but if he hasn't, he probably has the trade value of someone who's had a fluke season out of nowhere. Maybe he's the poor man's Marco Scutaro, or maybe he'll prove everyone wrong and show that Marco Scutaro is the poor man's Jeff Keppinger.

I seriously doubt that any team has offered a good, young prospect for him.

Really? Don't underestimate the lure of an arm like that.

It's easy to knock Keppinger because of how much he's bounced around, but all that guy has ever done is hit. Last year was probably a bit flukish, most projections still have him hitting over 300 with an OPS near 800 this year. You can do worse for your backup middle IF.

Bailey is vastly overrated.

Not vastly. There aren't too many young pitchers I'd rather have.

Bailey's main issue is that, for whatever reason, he doesn't challenge hitters nearly enough. I have never seen a guy with his ability be so AFRAID to come after the batter - nibble, nibble, nibble all frickin' day. I'd still bet that he'll have a longer and better career than Cueto (and I've been on the Cueto bandwagon since day 1, size be damned), though - I expect that someone will get through to him eventually.

-- MWE

I wonder if the A's might not be looking at Keppinger.

No matter how good he might actually be (and he's probably no worse Mark DeRosa only younger), Keppinger simply has no substantial trade value -- backup MI never do really, especially not those who are older and have the AAAA tag. Now, if the A's were willing (or close to willing) to trade Blanton for Cueto straight up, then sure they'd like picking up Keppinger as the throw-in. And in that sense, you're absolutely right that Beane might be eyeing him -- it would be similar to how he picked up Mark Ellis or Terrence Long ... or Charles Thomas. :-) But there's no way Beane sees Keppinger as a major part of this deal.

Tomorrow, Beane will trade Blanton for Keppinger and a low-A prospect. :-)

Obligatory Haren/Blanton comparison:

Here are their career stats:

ERA
Haren: 3.82
Blanton: 4.10

ERA+
Haren: 113
Blanton: 105

FIP
Haren: 4.05
Blanton: 4.06

BABIP
Haren: .300
Blanton: .300

IP/GS
Haren: 6.3
Blanton: 6.4

Haren's a little better at run prevention, but Blanton makes a bit of that up by going deeper into games. They even had similar minor league stats:

Haren: 8.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
Blanton: 8.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9

So you advocate waiting on trading Blanton till he's as appreciated/overrated as Haren was?

"For those who haven't had the pleasure of watching Blanton pitch, he pitches VERY QUICKLY, which is very nice."

If he shook hands with Steve Trachsel, would the universe explode?

Oh, and Keppinger's BA is for reals, yo. He deserved a shot at a starting gig, and he might've gotten one if he hadn't had the bad luck to come up with the Pirates.

Obligatory Haren/Blanton comparison

Um, yeah... let's compare them and leave out the most important numbers;

2007 ERA+
Haren: 137
Blanton: 106

Even if you go to a 3 year average to fit Blanton's nice rookie season in there it isn't particularly close;

05-07 ERA+
Haren: 118.7
Blanton: 107.1

Haren has also been top ten in the league in IP, Ks and K/BB every year in that span.

Oh, and Keppinger's BA is for reals, yo. He deserved a shot at a starting gig, and he might've gotten one if he hadn't had the bad luck to come up with the Pirates.

Yeah, that line-up in Pittsburgh is tough one for a young player to break into...

"Yeah, that line-up in Pittsburgh is tough one for a young player to break into..."

It is if you're talented, since (the old scouting director) Ed Creech wouldn't recognize a good prospect if one bit him on the ass. Particularly if that player was an offensively-minded 2B, since Creech loved speedy little free-swinging no-power gnats above all (we called 'em "Creechlings" in Pirate fan circles) - Rajai Davis, Chaz Lytle, Jermel Lomack, people like that.

Creechlings sound like they should be some low level monster in a role playing game. They should be fast, annoying, look like Tony Womack and be worth -2 experience points.

Bailey's main issue is that, for whatever reason, he doesn't challenge hitters nearly enough. I have never seen a guy with his ability be so AFRAID to come after the batter - nibble, nibble, nibble all frickin' day.

Kip Wells disease. It's curable by a smart organization, but you can probably understand my pessimism since Bailey does not have the fortune to be involved in a smart organization. In Cincinnati, it's probably terminal.

I didn't mean to suggest that Keppinger was the main piece in the trade, more that he would be a nice addition. And in thinking about it I'm sure the A's could get more than just Cueto and Keppinger.

Blanton is off the A's banner on their mlb.com page, and the shooter in the grassy knowl had blanks in his gun...

And in thinking about it I'm sure the A's could get more than just Cueto and Keppinger.

It's funny. My reaction to the headline was that Beane would be holding out for Cueto, Stubbs, and Keppinger. If the Reds think Bruce can handle CF long-term, then Stubbs doesn't seem to figure into their plans, and Keppinger's age would likely dissuade them from thinking too highly of him. I'd see that as a good haul for the A's, but that doesn't mean it would be a bad move for the Reds. All offseason I've expected them to make a serious effort to win this year.

I think he's had his career season,

Look at his minor league numbers and also the reports that he actually played a respectable shortstop in Cincy for 47 games.

Pecota projects him at .305/.364/.418
Zips projects him at .307/.360/.408

Basically Keppinger = Freddy Sanchez- except I've seen both play and Kepp is the better fielder, and the Pirates didn't have to trade anything of value to get Kepp- he was theirs...

Jeff Keppinger is the freakin man.
That is all.

When Keppinger hit has absolutely awesome, God-lovingly amazing jack off Mark Prior in Omaha in 01 I wonder who would have bet on Jeff Keppinger being a better major league player six years later.
He was just nuts that entire post-season though, kid is a freaking clutch God

Apparently the A's are asking for Bailey or Cueto, Votto and a 3r player, at least according to Reds Insider. Seems a bit much. Cueto, Stubbs, and Keppinger seems much more reasonable.

Like it or not, you can't blame Keppinger's career entirely on the Pirates. They drafted him in 2001 but he wasn't signed until after the 2001 season (don't know how much of that was the Pirates, how much Keppinger). In 2002-2003, he had OPS+ of 745 and 791 at A and A+ -- maybe that was crappy Pirates' instruction, but certainly no reason for the Pirates to be that impressed. At age 24, he was still posting just an 802 at AA and the Pirates included him in the mid-season Benson deal.

But after the Pirates, the Mets didn't give him a chance. Neither did the Royals for chrissakes. Though really, at age 26, he was still putting up just a 757 OPS at AAA, so who could really blame them? Traded to the Reds before the 2007 season, they didn't give him any time until July.

3 organisations, plus the Reds, didn't view this guy as an ML player much less a starter. It ain't just the Pirates. And you can't blame them. He's got a rep as a Ken Phelps all-star, but his career minor league OPS is 794. His career minor-league ISO is 100 ... and that's not some fluke due to his early career struggles, that's what he did in AAA at ages 26 and 27. Where in the world his ML power has come from is a mystery -- though most of it came in the good hitters parks in Cincy and KC. Were his minor-league parks tough hitting environments?

You do know that the ZIPS projection (more believable IMHO because of the ISO) translates to an OPS+ of 95 at Cincy last year. but fair enough, with the extra OBP, that's still an above-average 2B. Looks like the NL really is AAA these days. :-)

Now, if he's an average defender at SS, then I'll take him, no doubt. If he's good at 2B, that would be lovely. If he can play a decent 2B/3B and fake SS well enough, he's a nice backup. But he's 28 and has fewer than 500 PA in the majors. MLB front offices may still be ossified, but it's hard to believe so many would miss on this guy (though Pirates, Royals, Reds may be the unholy trinity).

I have never seen a guy with his ability be so AFRAID to come after the batter - nibble, nibble, nibble all frickin' day.

Sounds like Daisuke.

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_8219026

Oakland's asking price for pitcher Joe Blanton is steep. From the Dodgers, the A's want Andre Ethier, Andy LaRoche and a prospect. Cincinnati also is pushing hard for the right-hander. Don't rule out the Dodgers making a play for Livan Hernandez, either.

What kind of a play? "I love you, you're perfect, now change?"