At least he won't be clogging up the basepaths.

When did Dusty Baker become a GM, anyway?

BRILLIANT!

Does Arkansas have enough time to score?

Wait. This will be a big upgrade for the Reds. The Central is not very strong. What the heck. Go for it.

That's a lot of money. But it helps their pen. He's a good pitcher.

And now the Brewers can hopefully use the money reserved for him to pick up two or three quality arms to round out that bullpen.

Any thought on the vague rumors that Dave Bush may end up as the Brewers' closer when all is said and done?

Any thought on the vague rumors that Dave Bush may end up as the Brewers' closer when all is said and done?

I had never heard of this possibility. I have had Bush for 2 years in my rotisserie league as a starter for $9. No way I was suffering through another year of him at $14. But for cheap saves I would do some things I don't particularly like.

I am OK with this. Yes, 4/46 seems like a lot, but the market and what "overpaid" is is changing. It indicates the Reds know what one of their weaknesses is, are trying to solve it, and that they are trying to get the team up to the 85-win area in 2008, which IMO is the right call.

I'm not shocked by the terms, but I am shocked by the team that offered it.

Coco will be missed in Milwaukee. It was electric when he came in to close out the game. The article says that the Brewers will be looking at the trade market for a closer, but doesn't give any indication as to who might be on the market.

#5, the article says that Bush and Capuano (and Hall, although I hope that's not true) are being sought for trade. If the Brewer's dont get offered enough, Bush may be their best current option.

To me, the money is the money -- if the Reds aren't balking at paying twelve million bucks for sixty-seventy innings a season, then I'm not too worried about it. We all know practically every team has more money than it knows what to do with. But four years for 32-year-old non-elite relievers is not a good idea. And as a response to a bunch of losing seasons, adding an expensive reliever is no more the solution than adding a celebrity manager. It's not a terrible move, but it's just not . . . not anything, really.

I don't know; I guess this helps a team whose incumbent closer's David Weathers more than it'd help most.

Would the Brewers be interested in Jose Valverde? And what's Valverde's "fair market value" in a trade to Milwaukee? Valverde can become a free agent after the 2009 season. I can see AZ being interested in either Bush or Capuano...

Horrible, horrible, horrible deal by a horrible team with a general manager so horrible he should be taken out back and put out of his misery.

I don't know the value of players enough to make good trade proposals, but a swap of Valverde and Capuano seems like a good framework for a trade. I imagine the Brewers would want more, maybe a minor league arm that is a candidate for the bullpen. If Capuano is going to be traded, Arizona would be his preference, as that is his offseason home.

how many innings is each million buying? about 5?

From tango's salary calculator the contract values him very crudely a 3 WAR player. That probably requires him to have ERA's in the low 2's I would guess - which seems highly optimistic.

Does anyone want to address Cordero's inconsistency? Yes, when he is rolling, he's very good. But in each of the last two seasons, he has had pretty bad stretches that lasted a little too long. (06 to start the season, 07 in the middle of the season) This seems like elite closer money, and Cordero is not Elite in my book. Maybe I don't get the market....but I feel pretty sure this one is going to burn Cincinatti.

Oh well....so what does this do for Jose Valverde's trade value?

I've noticed that people who follow the Reds like it, and those who don't follow them think it's a stupid signing.
Reds fans know that the RP has been horrible, and this improves it a lot. It basically bumps down the bullpen slots and gets rid of the worst reliever, which was very bad. This may be "overpaying" but it's easily worth it since the Reds had the 2nd worst bullpen in baseball last year.

Coco uses the same approach. First pitch 94+ mph plus fastball followed by nonstop sliders. When he loses control of the fastball batters have learned to lay off the sliders and wait. Turnbow has a similar approach so using Turnbow in the 8th also worked a bit against FC over the course of the season or even a series. Cordero also struggled against NL Central teams like the Cubs and Cards. Clearly limited innings but Brewer fans didn't consider it mere coincidence. It seemed pretty clear that the opposing hitters had a pre-defined "approach" by the third series of the season.

I wish Cordero well. With the schedule as it is and his stuff he will eat up a good many teams. But against "smart" teams and within the division with repeated exposure I suspect he will have his share of issues.

It has been discussed for some time to make Bush a closer. He was a reliever in college, he regularly runs out of gas after 90 or so pitches, in a short stint his fastball/curveball combo would fool more hitters with limited exposure and frankly he is driving me nuts as a starter.

Outside of 3-4 primates that have suggested Bush as a closer, nobody reputable has mentioned it--anywhere. It seems absurd to me. Bush to the pen, I can see that, but I don't see him as the guy to close out games with his HR rate and lack of dominant stuff.

How about moving Sheets to closer? He can't stay healthy as a starter, maybe the pen is what he needs. Also, the Brewers have "extra" starting pitching; give Sheets and his 2-pitch repertoire a shot at closing. I'm sure Sheets can turn it up to +95 mph regularly in the pen.

Post 16:

AHhhhhhh, but THAT is what is wrong with the franchise. The Reds regularly make moves that management thinks will generate positive press FIRST and will address a team need SECOND.

Any Reds fan care to recount how the fans reacted to Milton when he went south?

Management needs to get a PLAN. Explain THAT to the fans. And then execute.

Does Arkansas have enough time to score?

Woo, pig!

Beano:

Absurd?

Bush has to pace himself in the extreme just to get to the 7th inning. If you told a guy with good control, a fastball that gains 2-3 mph thanks to not having to "pace oneself", a good breaking ball and has demonstrated that while he can't go deep in games his arm bounces back quick.

You need to think outside the box Beano.

And just because Tom Hardricourt or Jayson Stark hasn't suggested doesn't diminish the nature of the suggestion.

I think you could be a tad more considerate of your peers.


I didn't know the point of BBTF was to just wait to comment on the ideas of OTHERS?

Pardon some of us for thinking. But you go ahead and sit quietly until someone else has spoken before commenting.

Mariano ought to hold out for five years.

You need to think outside the box Beano.

I'm the guy that suggested moving Sheets to closer. Nobody anywhere suggested that.

We all know Bush gets "tired" or solved in the 7th, this is true of just about any pitcher. Move Maddux to closer then. With the weak defense being considered, Milwaukee needs a top strikeout pitcher in that spot--more than most teams. Bush may be better with the k:bb ratio than most, but he is not dominant enough to keep the ball out of play and ball in the park with the game on the line.

This aren't the 2001 Brewers, this is supposed to be a club that wins a division and competes for a World Series. Let's shake this experimental mode mindset of +90 loss Brewers teams where you reach everywhere with talent trying to find the next diamond in the rough and demand quality throughout.

At least Sheets has the talent to get the job done in that spot.

so, Francisco Cordero is going to be making $3 million less than Mariano Rivera

if I'm Brian Cashman, I'm feeling pretty good about myself right now

Beano:

Understood. Your suggestions and others are invalid.
As if using Sheets is any less of an "experiment" than Bush.

Except, of course, that Bush has been a relief pitcher. This past season on occasion in fact.

But let's not let the obvious differences get in the way of dismissing an idea.

Well, so much for your claim that I haven't thought out of the box. Looks like we agree.

The important differences are Sheets strikes out more hitters per 9 in his career and allows less HR per 9 in his career than Bush. Also, Sheets can't stay healthy. It is about getting the most out of the 60 innings Sheets can offer you, more than finding ways to get an average to below average pitcher (bush) in high leverage situations.

I have to vote Sheets over Bush, it is a no-brainer.

No.

We do not.

Have a pleasant evening.

I'd actually be inclined to consider using Villanueva as a closer, although it seems as though Turnbow will likely get the first chance.

-- MWE

EDIT: Luis Pena might get a chance by midseason, too.

Mike:

But Carlos has done well in a starting role. Do you think that with more exposure he will have issues? Or that the changeup is Closer caliber?

Milton was a horrible move from the start. He was always an average pitcher at best, with a high FB rate. It was easy to see that he would fail.
Cordero has had more K's than innings pitched in all his seasons, doesn't give up many BB, and has a very good HR rate. He improves the bullpen tremendously.
Obviously someone like you wouldn't know about pitchers like Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney. But those 3 pitchers could be the #3/#4/#5 next year and be better than any SP on the market right now while making league minimum.

Last year Cincinati had the highest bullpen ERA in the NL. By a third of a run more than the second worst. Even adjusting for park, they had a cumulative ERA+ of 90. The NL had a total bullpen ERA of 109. This helps them more than most.

The Reds are rapidly becoming my surprise team in the NL this year. They have a good core with Arroyo and Harang both having back-to-back good workhose years in the rotation. Homer Bailey should help flesh it out. I have no idea if this qualifies as overpaying for Cordero (many people seem to be perpetually two years behind the time in assessing what is market value) but it does address their most glaring weakness. Meanwhile, they have a good, solid offense anchored by Adam Dunn.

The REds were terrible in the first half of the year, but that was at least partially because they did a terrible job hitting and pitching in clutch situations (I checked their splits when Narron got the axe and it was striking). They played .500 ball over the last half of the season, went 80-82 in 2006, and it's been three years since anyone in the division won 86 games.

And I don't see anyone else in the division getting better. The Cubs are going out of their way to assemble a plethora of lousy middle infielders while making noises that they won't be able to afford to bring Kerry Wood back. The Brewers remind me a lot of the 2000 White Sox. Lotta great young talent, but no good healthy starting pitchers.

Excuse me? I was at Homer Bailey's MLB debut. As for the Reds would you care to discuss the Reds of Fred Hutchinson or Jack McKeon? And the best Maloney in Reds history so far is Jim.

I was using Milton as an easy EXAMPLE of how REPEATEDLY Reds management over the last decade have made deals based more on appeasing Andy Fuhrman than making the team legitimately better.

Youngster, I have eaten many a meal at The Grand Finale, wagered at both River Downs and Turfway, watched the fireworks at Ault Park, been annoyed at the recent renovation of Fountain Square and chuckled as the local government tries to get funding for a jail and schools in Cincy proper and each time its defeated.

Before you snark next time be sure you don't bring a knife to a gun fight.

Chris:

Agreed. My main contention is that FC's flaws can be exploited by a good team. And some of those teams are in this division.

I know retro will good-naturedly scoff at the Cubs being a team with a hitting "plan" but I watched several times as Cubs batters laid off the slider. The same type of slider that against other pitchers they attacked. (And failed)

I think Coco could be in for some tough times if not used "just so".

Bush was also a closer at Wake Forest. Good one, too.

Yes, those were the days. Bush has talents, but closing in the Majors will not be one of them. His HR rate is prohibitive.

Without a dominant fastball or change, I just don't see him getting by with breaking stuff that is up in the zone.

Perhaps he can sacrifice a little in the zone, issue an extra walk or two, I just see him as one of these guys that pitches in the zone too much with ok stuff.

Please tell me why I need to rethink this..?

Understood. Your suggestions and others are invalid.
As if using Sheets is any less of an "experiment" than Bush.

Well, of course Bush sucks and Sheets doesn't. There's that.

Seems Milwaukee offered Cordero $42 million over 4 years with a similar 5th year option. Didn't Cordero seem like he was willing to offer the hometown discount? What happened to that? Isn't $4mm within the range of hometown discount? If not, what is the typical discount?

Maybe the union is getting nervous about the recent Boras flat tires?

Maybe Sheets SHOULD be a closer. It might allow him to stay healthy, who knows? He could be a great starter, so you hate to waste that, but at what point do you give up on a guy being able to stay in the rotation? I'm not saying NOW is the time...but if not now, when?

Didn't Cordero seem like he was willing to offer the hometown discount? What happened to that?

When did he indicate he was amenable to a discount - I don't recall this.

I don't recall him saying that he would give a discount, and it's easy for me to say that he should turn away $4M. But I would think the Brewers are likely to be a better team over the next 4 years than the Reds. I didn't watch him when he was on the Rangers, but he really seemed to enjoy closing for a winning team in a home game that was usually packed with cheering fans.

Assuming that the Brewers offer was genuine, and not just a leak to make them look good after the fact, I am surprised that he chose the Reds over the Brewers.

Anyone consider the possibility that who manages the Brewers might be a consideration for Cordero?

Now Yost was as thoughtful as possible in his closer usage but maybe Coco just doesn't want another season of nonsense.

That and whatever outsiders may think Dusty Baker is highly regarded.

The players gossip network travels fast. Whatever illusions Brewer fans had of Doug Melvin improving the team are likely just that if the word is being spread that Yost ain't all that.

Kendall? I think that further confirms my suspicion if the only guy willing to come to Brewtown is the guy scrambling to keep his career afloat with a rep of being something of a prickly sort.

Sigh. Got a bad feeling Crew fans.....

I don't see a reason why Bush cannot become a very good closer. He's done it before, he's got the control, and he could arguably thrive in that role. Moving him to the closer role would certainly be a "Moneyball" thing to do [ducks]...

Just curious, would Brewer fans prefer to move Bush into closing, or trade him in a deal for someone like Jose Valverde?

Also, the Brewers have "extra" starting pitching

Oh? They must've been keeping it fresh for the postseason in '07, 'cause I didn't see it. (And before Harveys jumps my case for making a meanspirited comment, Beano's got that one coming. Apologies in advance to you, NTN and the rest.)

Oh? They must've been keeping it fresh for the postseason in '07, 'cause I didn't see it.

I imagine Brewer fans were still counting Doug Davis as one of their own...

Well, of course Bush sucks and Sheets doesn't. There's that.

And there's also the fact that a lot of good closers were and are guys who sucked as starters. That said, I agree with Beano (eureka!) that Bush's stuff doesn't seem like the overpowering kind you want in a closer. Of course, other guys have succeeded in the role without 95+ heat. I definitely agree with HW that as a starter, Bush is no more than back of the rotation filler. He's probably ideally a middle reliever.

If there's a pitcher more irritating to watch than Steve Trachsel, it's Doug Davis.

Of course, Davis actually gets guys out on occasion.

I definitely agree with HW that as a starter, Bush is no more than back of the rotation filler. He's probably ideally a middle reliever.

This is silly. Bush can be a solid middle of the rotation guy for a long time.

If there's a pitcher more irritating to watch than Steve Trachsel, it's Doug Davis.

Or Livan Hernandez. And AZ fans were blessed with two of these three last year...

Seriously--as to the Brewers' "extra" starting pitching, what's their rotation look like without Sheets?

Gallardo
Suppan
Villanueva
Bush
Capuano?
Jackson?
Vargas?
Parra?

That wouldn't look too bad if I thought Parra were any more reliable than (or even AS reliable as) Sheets health-wise, but he isn't. Given that, it doesn't strike me as a championship caliber rotation.

This is silly. Bush can be a solid middle of the rotation guy for a long time.

I have my doubts. His peripherals are better than I figured, but he doesn't seem to have a whole lot of stamina for a guy who should be in his prime "workhorse" years (he's 28), and while he doesn't walk people he makes an awful lot of mistakes within the strike zone (hence the homers).

My saying he should be limited to the pen's probably hyperbole, but I don't see him as more than a 4 starter.

And I'd blocked Livan out of my mind after the NLDS game 3, but yeah. I have no clue how that guy gets anyone out. I throw harder than he does.

Anyone consider the possibility that who manages the Brewers might be a consideration for Cordero?

Now Yost was as thoughtful as possible in his closer usage but maybe Coco just doesn't want another season of nonsense.

I don't buy it, especially if Yost is as thoughtful as possible in his closer usage. No offense, but it sounds more like projection on your part, Harv.

One team offered him more money. So he signed with them.

Chris:

Just asking the question. And others asked why no "hometown discount".

But the "popular" opinion is that the Brew is a "team on the rise". If the reports are true is 4 million enough to offset the perceived better chance at a title?

Or are folks going to claim that Coco has Jaffe's insight and can tell that the Reds are his better opportunity to win?

Why is it projecting when a player leaves a team when:

--the pitcher was game handled well (no idea on off the field)

--the team has a fair amount of young talent (ROY and 3rd place in MVP by separate guys)

--signing team plays in a "bandbox" (isn't that supposed to matter to pitchers?)

--the money offers weren't THAT different

I think it's reasonable to ask if the manager played a role in the player's decision.

And as for Sheets as a reliever the guy missed the rest of the season after pitching on 3 days rest and stated in the papers he "doesn't know how relief pitchers do it".

Yeah, sounds like closer material to me.

Oh, and he's in his walk year. How about the team milk as many innings as possible particularly when the other decent starters are young?

And the notion that Milwaukee has starter depth is beyond silly. Milwaukee has guys who have been starters. The quality is in serious question.

HW:

I have my doubts as to whether Villanueva can go deep into games consistently, is all.

-- MWE

I think people in this thread are underestimating how godawful the Reds middle relief was. Weathers didn't blow many saves, cos he never had that many chances. With Coco as closer, Weathers can move to a more natural role of 7th/8th inning guy. Anything which means less appearances for Stanton/Coffey et al in high leverage situations is adding big time wins to the Reds.

Mike:

Understood.

By the way all, I really do think folks need to recalibrate as to what constitutes a "championship quality rotation". It is becoming increasingly clear that if a team has just two guys who can take the mound regularly and generate mostly positive results a goodly number of teams can cobble enough on the backside to keep the team competitive.

Particularly in a league where 85 wins puts you in the thick of things.

It is becoming increasingly clear that if a team has just two guys who can take the mound regularly and generate mostly positive results a goodly number of teams can cobble enough on the backside to keep the team competitive.

You can hear a loud NO emanating from Braves' nation.

EDIT : Though given its Auburn/Alabama and Georgia/GT today, your statement might well go unnoticed.

When Melvin talks about starting rotation depth, he's not saying that the Brewers have a bunch of All Star pitchers. He's saying that he has pitchers that are better than other team's pitchers, and he is willing to part with one or two to upgrade his team elsewhere.

Jmp:

Right now I have no idea what Melvin is thinking. The team had a plan and at the moment I think it's getting re-written in crayon. I fear the ghost of Sal Bando haunts the hallways.

I dont understand why Cordero should have given a hometown discount to the Brewers. He only pitched there for a year and half.

And the notion that Milwaukee has starter depth is beyond silly. Milwaukee has guys who have been starters. The quality is in serious question.

Nobody said the Brewers have extra starting pitching. I said they had "extra" starting pitching.

But the "popular" opinion is that the Brew is a "team on the rise". If the reports are true is 4 million enough to offset the perceived better chance at a title?

Don't make no difference what the popular opinion thinks. Here's how it could go:

GM: We got a good team. We really improved after we fired our manager and played much better down the stretch. Our big problem is our bullpen, and you'll fix that.

Or are folks going to claim that Coco has Jaffe's insight and can tell that the Reds are his better opportunity to win?

I think players take the best offer 95% of the time.

--the money offers weren't THAT different

How often do players turn down the extra $4 million though? They take the best deal. If he'd said he was willing to give Milwaukee the hometown discount in advance, I could see this argument. But he didn't.

I would love to see the reaction to a player who said, "I don't pay attention to the city; it's just hotel, bus, stadium, bus, airport, hotel. Who can tell the difference? So I'm heading into free agency with a plan to sign for whoever offers me the most money."

I would love to see the reaction to a player who said, "I don't pay attention to the city; it's just hotel, bus, stadium, bus, airport, hotel. Who can tell the difference? So I'm heading into free agency with a plan to sign for whoever offers me the most money."

Ty Cobb once said something like this. During a contract dispute with the Tigers in 1908, he said, "It's not about principle. I want more money."

Actually Chris, Coco DID say something to that effect. He said if the Brewers offer was in the ballpark he would re-sign.

NOW PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE NOTE THAT I:

Am fine with Coco grabbing the cash

Think Brewer fans griping are being silly

Never really anticipated FC re-signing

I have merely been responding to various posts/questions in the thread.

I know how providing info can be misconstrued as taking a side.

Now, I am weary of discussing Cordero.
Good evening

Regarding the Brewers starting pitching, in terms of depth the Brewers indeed have a lot of it.

The highest ERA for any Brewer starter was Dave Bush at 5.12. That's including everybody; there were no garbage pitchers pitching one or two starts and getting bombed for the Brewers. Here's the number of starts each National League team gave to pitchers with ERAs higher than 5.12:

Diamondbacks - 3
Braves - 64
Cubs - 7
Reds - 67
Rockies - 8
Marlins - 129
Astros - 73
Dodgers - 52
Mets - 24
Phillies - 55
Pirates - 65
Padres - 34
Giants - 14
Cardinals - 57
Nationals - 43

So by that quick and dirty method it seems like quite a few teams could have used a pitcher of Bush's 2007 performance level. The Brewers don't have an abundance of #1s or #2s, but they do have more than their share of lower level starters who can give you 5 average to good innings but have trouble in the sixth. The Brewers starters pitched better than the league average in innings 2 through 5, and well below in the sixth. Similarly there was a big collapse when you look at the over 75 pitches stats.

(There is no seeming connection to Ned Yost on this because it wasn't characteristic of prior Brewers teams.)

Good work. Right, 2006 the Brewers were at the bottom of a similar list. Melvin did succeed in improving the depth of SP, whether it by luck or design.